Revealing Our Hand

[Johnny Member]

What a fine morning to be alive!


Things will get interesting from here on in. If this forum is anything to go by, we're nor flag favourites according to most Saints fans! How will the players react to the win last night? Will they get ahead of themselves like the fans? Time will tell. We're no longer flying under the radar.

But the biggest factor in a win like that I think, on the big stage on a Friday night against a good opponent - is that everyone is analysing what you're doing. I know all clubs and coaches analyse all other teams, every week - but when you're under that spotlight the scrutiny on your tactics and strategies is extreme.

When you're a bottom team, the opposition doesn't really care what you're doing. They want to 'play the game on their terms' and focus on getting their own strategy down-pat. But when you're a good team that has shown to be able to beat the top teams - they can't just 'play the game on their own terms' anymore, they need to unravel what it is that you're doing.


I think last night's game was as revealing as anything we've seen in Richardson's time as to what our 'game plan' actually is. I've argued that we can't judge his strategic vision, as we haven't been able to carry it out properly. Our execution due to personnel and general lack of ability across the park has meant that we've never had a really good look at what our 'A-Game' looks like.

Last night it was clear.

The commentators were all over it too, for the first time.


Defensively, I think it's been pretty clear what we're trying to do. And we've done it pretty well over the years in patches. But offensively, it hasn't been clear.


The big one was the 'kick it to the top of the square and have smalls front and centre'. The commentators and experts showed graphics of how well we did it last night and how well drilled each player was as to their role in that mode of attack. It also shed some light on the 'flat hands' theory where the talls' number 1 priority is to ensure they don't get beaten in a marking contest. Actually marking the ball comes second. I think Bruce actually even said it after the game.

It's a basic strategy, and certainly not groundbreaking. But when the entire team knows the drill and executes it well, it's effective. Like last night. It also doesn't rely on a highly skilled midfield to carry it out.

I'd hope and expect, and assume that we other strategies depending on the opposition and the state of the game - but when you pick 3 tall forwards each week, it's a fair assumpti0n that it is certainly a focus.


So how will we handle the fact that everyone knows exactly what we're doing? And not only that, we will have all teams on notice - the hunted, not the hunter.

[Devilhead]

How does the humble pie taste?

[Johnny Member]

How does the humble pie taste?

??

[Sainter_Dad]

Revealing out FIST!!!!!

We have an army of tough, talented, strong players who are now Giant Slayers

Self belief means all in this caper, and I firmly believe our lack of self belief in the past has had us dropping our heads if headed in the last - Supporters/Coach/and most importantly Players. That must change after last night.

We out clearanced the clearance kings

[Johnny Member]

Revealing out FIST!!!!!

We have an army of tough, talented, strong players who are now Giant Slayers

Self belief means all in this caper, and I firmly believe our lack of self belief in the past has had us dropping our heads if headed in the last - Supporters/Coach/and most importantly Players. That must change after last night.

We out clearanced the clearance kings

I think we had 90 interchanges to their 73 or something, due to their injuries. So I think that helped our cause in the middle.

[Devilhead]

Revealing out FIST!!!!!

We have an army of tough, talented, strong players who are now Giant Slayers

Self belief means all in this caper, and I firmly believe our lack of self belief in the past has had us dropping our heads if headed in the last - Supporters/Coach/and most importantly Players. That must change after last night.

We out clearanced the clearance kings

I think we had 90 interchanges to their 73 or something, due to their injuries. So I think that helped our cause in the middle.

They had one guy that didnt return ........ Your call about our young developing mid field is starting to look embarrassing

[Johnny Member]

Revealing out FIST!!!!!

We have an army of tough, talented, strong players who are now Giant Slayers

Self belief means all in this caper, and I firmly believe our lack of self belief in the past has had us dropping our heads if headed in the last - Supporters/Coach/and most importantly Players. That must change after last night.

We out clearanced the clearance kings

I think we had 90 interchanges to their 73 or something, due to their injuries. So I think that helped our cause in the middle.

They had one guy that didnt return ........ Your call about our young developing mid field is starting to look embarrassing

Embarrassing?

Care to quote my call and explain how it could possibly be embarrassing? It's probably more accurate now than when I posted it. I was actually about to do a 'I told you so' bump it's so accurate.

[SaintPav]

Johnny, you keep moving the goal posts.

You argued in another thread that "we're not good enough" and after we do beat a top 4 team to demonstrate our improvement you've shifted the argument to "revealing our hand"

Am I missing something because I thought Richo changed the game plan in the last and we went small in the forward line in the last...

Richo has also shown that he can be flexible eg throwing Gilbo in the ruck which is an inspired move and is working, for now.

Anyway, your Friday night argument is interesting but sounds like circular reasoning to me. ie You can't get a job without experience, and you can't get experience without a job.

Perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "raising the bar" or "shifting sands".

[Johnny Member]

Johnny, you keep moving the goal posts.

You argued in another thread that "we're not good enough" and after we do beat a top 4 team to demonstrate our improvement you've shifted the argument to "revealing our hand"

Am I missing something because I thought Richo changed the game plan in the last and we went small in the forward line in the last...

Richo has also shown that he can be flexible eg throwing Gilbo in the ruck which is an inspired move and is working, for now.

Anyway, your Friday night argument is interesting but sounds like circular reasoning to me. ie You can't get a job without experience, and you can't get experience without a job.

Perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "raising the bar" or "shifting sands".

?

I think you need to re-read my posts.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

[magnifisaint]

Royal Flush.

What are you talking about "revealing our hand"

If you think coaches aren't aware of the game plans and set ups at other clubs then they wouldn't be coaching.

There are definitely no secrets.

[SaintPav]

Johnny, you keep moving the goal posts.

You argued in another thread that "we're not good enough" and after we do beat a top 4 team to demonstrate our improvement you've shifted the argument to "revealing our hand"

Am I missing something because I thought Richo changed the game plan in the last and we went small in the forward line in the last...

Richo has also shown that he can be flexible eg throwing Gilbo in the ruck which is an inspired move and is working, for now.

Anyway, your Friday night argument is interesting but sounds like circular reasoning to me. ie You can't get a job without experience, and you can't get experience without a job.

Perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "raising the bar" or "shifting sands".

?

I think you need to re-read my posts.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

Don't worry Johnny...I've read them...

[asiu]

the original premise is solid

we are and do lack ... top end talent

feeding or breeding THAT need is revealing itself
(this season , this coming draft period , our 2nd's stock)

Self believe is a NEED
.... we knocked that monkey over the grandstand in the last quarter last night.

the earlier three quarters were about playing that bunch of muppets into form
... just like we did for Melbourne WC and the Catters

replay those games now , with belief breeding cohesion ... we might not drop the chin

Practice Paitence Perserverance

who the f*** is interested in hitting Granny day with knives for a gunfight !!

prior planning 'n preperation prevents piss poor performance

[Johnny Member]

Johnny, you keep moving the goal posts.

You argued in another thread that "we're not good enough" and after we do beat a top 4 team to demonstrate our improvement you've shifted the argument to "revealing our hand"

Am I missing something because I thought Richo changed the game plan in the last and we went small in the forward line in the last...

Richo has also shown that he can be flexible eg throwing Gilbo in the ruck which is an inspired move and is working, for now.

Anyway, your Friday night argument is interesting but sounds like circular reasoning to me. ie You can't get a job without experience, and you can't get experience without a job.

Perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "raising the bar" or "shifting sands".

?

I think you need to re-read my posts.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

Don't worry Johnny...I've read them...

Wll in that case, you've clearly misinterpreted them.


I presume you're referring to my 'We're Not Good Enough' thread, in which I state that we're not good enough to win the flag until we get some A-Grade talent in the team. And that the premise that we will improve infinitely over time, I believe to be incorrect. I stated that we only have Steven and Roo as A-Graders, and I think the improvement of the rest of the guys will peak this season. They'll improve this season, but then that will be the cap. And that won't be enough to win the flag by 2020 as the per the club's mission statement.

That doesn't mean we suck. It doesn't mean we're the worst team in the comp. It means that I don't think we will win the flag unless, as I clearly stated in that thread, we recruit some A-Grade talent and/or a few of the guys currently on our list break out and become A-Graders. I don't believe any of them, aside from hopefully Billings, Gresham, Acres, McCartin and Carlisle (as I stated in that thread) have that potential.

It's pretty clear what I wrote.



This thread is about the game last night, and how we handle the rest of the season. It's an entirely different topic, and completely mutually exclusive.

Nothing that happened last night changes my view on our flag hopes.



So I'm not sure what you're talking about.

[saynta]

Johnny, you keep moving the goal posts.

You argued in another thread that "we're not good enough" and after we do beat a top 4 team to demonstrate our improvement you've shifted the argument to "revealing our hand"

Am I missing something because I thought Richo changed the game plan in the last and we went small in the forward line in the last...

Richo has also shown that he can be flexible eg throwing Gilbo in the ruck which is an inspired move and is working, for now.

Anyway, your Friday night argument is interesting but sounds like circular reasoning to me. ie You can't get a job without experience, and you can't get experience without a job.

Perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "raising the bar" or "shifting sands".

?

I think you need to re-read my posts.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

Don't worry Johnny...I've read them...

Wll in that case, you've clearly misinterpreted them.


I presume you're referring to my 'We're Not Good Enough' thread, in which I state that we're not good enough to win the flag until we get some A-Grade talent in the team. And that the premise that we will improve infinitely over time, I believe to be incorrect. I stated that we only have Steven and Roo as A-Graders, and I think the improvement of the rest of the guys will peak this season. They'll improve this season, but then that will be the cap. And that won't be enough to win the flag by 2020 as the per the club's mission statement.

That doesn't mean we suck. It doesn't mean we're the worst team in the comp. It means that I don't think we will win the flag unless, as I clearly stated in that thread, we recruit some A-Grade talent and/or a few of the guys currently on our list break out and become A-Graders. I don't believe any of them, aside from hopefully Billings, Gresham, Acres, McCartin and Carlisle (as I stated in that thread) have that potential.

It's pretty clear what I wrote.



This thread is about the game last night, and how we handle the rest of the season. It's an entirely different topic, and completely mutually exclusive.

Nothing that happened last night changes my view on our flag hopes.



So I'm not sure what you're talking about.

I certainly don't agree with you.

Ross and Roberton aren't far off being A graders.

In fact Roberton's stats this year already mark him as elite

And you don't even mention ether of them

Wonder why.

[Johnny Member]

Royal Flush.

What are you talking about "revealing our hand"

If you think coaches aren't aware of the game plans and set ups at other clubs then they wouldn't be coaching.

There are definitely no secrets.

This is what I mean:

I know all clubs and coaches analyse all other teams, every week - but when you're under that spotlight the scrutiny on your tactics and strategies is extreme.

When you're a bottom team, the opposition doesn't really care what you're doing. They want to 'play the game on their terms' and focus on getting their own strategy down-pat. But when you're a good team that has shown to be able to beat the top teams - they can't just 'play the game on their own terms' anymore, they need to unravel what it is that you're doing.

Quite often, it takes the off-season for opposition coaches to work out what last year's premier did that separated them. They see obvious things during the year, and implement counter strategies on the fly to beat it week by week. But quite often, teams get under the guard before the opposition works them out. We nearly did it in 09, but we were worked out a month too early. Hawthorn did it in 08. West Coast nearly did it in 15. Collingwood did it in 2010.

I'm just putting it out there, that with a good win on the big stage against a good team - whether we'll be able to counter the strategic focus that will now be put on us and how we play.

Interestingly, none of the 'experts' have ever publicly spoken about our game plan - out side of 'pressure'. Last night, they were dissecting it and highlighting the tactics we were implementing. As I said in the OP, for the first time in Richardson's reign, our tactics and game plan were very clear. It was executed to a point where it no longer looked like a 'tackle hard and pressure and scramble the ball forward'.


Does Richardson have more than 1 offensive strategy? When we play Carlton next week and they camp 8 blokes in the D50 arc and play tighter on our small forwards after seeing what we did last night, will we find other avenues to goal?

[Johnny Member]

I certainly don't agree with you.

Ross and Roberton aren't far off being A graders.

In fact Roberton's stats this year already mark him as elite

And you don't even mention ether of them

Wonder why.

Nothing wrong with disagreeing with me. If you understand my point or argument, and disagree - I have no issue with that whatsoever.


You're right about Roberton. He's playing as an A-Grader this year. He slipped under my guard in terms of my expectations of how good he could become. Melbourne did shut him down pretty easily though, so in terms of 'revealing our hand', it will be interesting to see how we react when opposition coaches put work into him.

Ross isn't A-Grade. He played an A-Grade last quarter last night though! Hopefully he does become a legitimate gun.


If those two do become 'elite', then yeah we'd be closer to to being a flag team than I thought.

[Bluthy]

Kicking it long to the big forwards stood out in the preseason and most of our games this year. Our kick-to-handball ratio has gone up apparently.

This is the continuation of the forward press Richo really ramped up last year. This year you can even see a guy like Brown almost on a half-forward flank sometimes. It's pretty full on. We do then sometimes get cut open out the back if a team has good runners like GWS did - they got some easy goals. But that is the price we are prepared to pay to create that swamp on their halfback line that teams struggle to get out of.

The added benefit of the fwd press is it makes it hard for teams to do their run and gun out of a really crowded backline. We got cut up that way last year before WRight came in with his speed and Gresham started becoming better at hustling things down in the oppo 50.

I think its taken inspiration from the doggies who last year were the masters of getting territory forward and then locking it in where they could use their elite handball to work it out for shots on goal.

A nice variation that I give Richo props for is getting Sinclair in who can lower his eyes and hit targets rather than bombing it. He acts as a link up player that can exploit the space if defenders start hanging back anticipating the bombs. It's given us a nice ebb and flow of making defenders unsure if they should hang back or cover the guys further up the ground. In the warm up I noticed Billings was leading a lot to that 40m mark in the forward 50 so I thought they were going to try and hit him up a bit as a variation to kicking long to the goal square.

Gresham is starting to play a key role as that small shark who roves the packs brilliantly and has the maneuverability and creativity to get around the defenders for shots on goal - and to a lesser extent Minch and Wright. Gresh has also played a bit of tagger role on the creative half-backs (Hodge, Shaw) which has been clever of Richo to kill their drive out of the back. Makes you wonder if Gresh is really suited to that small forward role rather than a mid particularly if he can't develop a great tank.

I think having Carlisle as an extremely tall but athletic sweeper type and Geary as a good play reader putting out fires that get out the back, gives Richo confidence to really press forward knowing he's got those effective safeguards out the back.

So yeah we got one big scalp which gets us a bit of respect and a bit more work for the oppo. How the long-bombing thing will go long-term I don't know. I'm not a fan of route-one footy even if Richo has some different dynamics to it. I prefer a more possession based game plan. Particularly in finals when the game gets so congested and tiring, keeping the footy becomes more important. But it seems to be working pretty good now.

[meher baba]

It was already difficult for me to take Mr Member seriously by dint of his name.

This thread sure doesn't make it any easier.

I think the gentleman's argument goes like this.

1). We're no good and can't win a flag because we don't have enough A grade players on our list.

2). But we've started to do a bit better, so our list is better than suggested in point 1)

3). If we continue to improve and do end up winning something, it will turn out that we actually had enough A grade players after all.

4) But it might all turn out to be a false dawn because we've "shown our hand", which apparently means good teams will start trying to beat us rather than whatever it is they've been doing up to now.

With the greatest respect, let me say that perhaps you should consider leaving the commentary to someone with more expertise. . Like David King...

[Saintmatt]

Kicking it long to the big forwards stood out in the preseason and most of our games this year. Our kick-to-handball ratio has gone up apparently.

This is the continuation of the forward press Richo really ramped up last year. This year you can even see a guy like Brown almost on a half-forward flank sometimes. It's pretty full on. We do then sometimes get cut open out the back if a team has good runners like GWS did - they got some easy goals. But that is the price we are prepared to pay to create that swamp on their halfback line that teams struggle to get out of.

The added benefit of the fwd press is it makes it hard for teams to do their run and gun out of a really crowded backline. We got cut up that way last year before WRight came in with his speed and Gresham started becoming better at hustling things down in the oppo 50.

I think its taken inspiration from the doggies who last year were the masters of getting territory forward and then locking it in where they could use their elite handball to work it out for shots on goal.

A nice variation that I give Richo props for is getting Sinclair in who can lower his eyes and hit targets rather than bombing it. He acts as a link up player that can exploit the space if defenders start hanging back anticipating the bombs. It's given us a nice ebb and flow of making defenders unsure if they should hang back or cover the guys further up the ground. In the warm up I noticed Billings was leading a lot to that 40m mark in the forward 50 so I thought they were going to try and hit him up a bit as a variation to kicking long to the goal square.

Gresham is starting to play a key role as that small shark who roves the packs brilliantly and has the maneuverability and creativity to get around the defenders for shots on goal - and to a lesser extent Minch and Wright. Gresh has also played a bit of tagger role on the creative half-backs (Hodge, Shaw) which has been clever of Richo to kill their drive out of the back. Makes you wonder if Gresh is really suited to that small forward role rather than a mid particularly if he can't develop a great tank.

I think having Carlisle as an extremely tall but athletic sweeper type and Geary as a good play reader putting out fires that get out the back, gives Richo confidence to really press forward knowing he's got those effective safeguards out the back.

So yeah we got one big scalp which gets us a bit of respect and a bit more work for the oppo. How the long-bombing thing will go long-term I don't know. I'm not a fan of route-one footy even if Richo has some different dynamics to it. I prefer a more possession based game plan. Particularly in finals when the game gets so congested and tiring, keeping the footy becomes more important. But it seems to be working pretty good now.

This. Correct. The three best changes we've made to our team that've made a BIG difference are: -

1. Minch for Lonie. Replaced a midget with a trickbag with a hard running small forward who kicks goals and can also roll through the midfield for a burst if needs be

2. Sinclair for Dunstan. Replaced a slow as treacle, non-endurance, non-accumulator, non-goalkicking mid with a kid who's got excellent endurance, has kicked goals at the level and has spent 12+ months at Sandy learning his craft as a full time mid. He kicks well and has poise. MASSIVE tick. I'll be mightly pi$$ed if he's replaced by Dunstan anytime soon. (PS - Dear Ameet - please re-sign Sinclair immediately)

4. Koby for Ben Long. Replaced an enthusiastic but light bodied half forward with a hard as nails angy bull who runs forward and tackles to hurt. Can kick a goal.

Now we finally have balance - Ross and Steele on the inside; Sinclair, Steven, Acres on the outside with Koby a mix of each.

[WellardSaint]

SInclair is a revelation.
I imagine the coaches kept him in the Zebs last year to get him to learn his craft under less pressure than AFL;
they knew he had oodles of skill and is pure silk, they maybe wanted him to round out his game with defensive stuff and other things.
His skill brings a lot of headaches to oppo defence, because Armo and Dunstan have a bad habit of kicking high and without looking,
so defenders just set up about 40m from them.
Sinclair can actually pick out a target and go nice and long to a man, or just spot up someone closer. Defenders will get caught out and spread thin.

Koby has the same effect, his hardness and vision is incredible.
I will scream blue murder if Dunstan comes back in for Koby, he cannot do what Koby does (not yet- but will he ever get better in that space?)

[st.byron]

This. Correct. The three best changes we've made to our team that've made a BIG difference are: -

1. Minch for Lonie. Replaced a midget with a trickbag with a hard running small forward who kicks goals and can also roll through the midfield for a burst if needs be

2. Sinclair for Dunstan. Replaced a slow as treacle, non-endurance, non-accumulator, non-goalkicking mid with a kid who's got excellent endurance, has kicked goals at the level and has spent 12+ months at Sandy learning his craft as a full time mid. He kicks well and has poise. MASSIVE tick. I'll be mightly pi$$ed if he's replaced by Dunstan anytime soon. (PS - Dear Ameet - please re-sign Sinclair immediately)

4. Koby for Ben Long. Replaced an enthusiastic but light bodied half forward with a hard as nails angy bull who runs forward and tackles to hurt. Can kick a goal.

Now we finally have balance - Ross and Steele on the inside; Sinclair, Steven, Acres on the outside with Koby a mix of each.

Good post. Am loving Sinclair in the team and am also a fan of Meatball. He has a bit of mongrel about him. I like that.

[desertsaint]

Koby is playing Dunstan's role - not Longs. Coach has a lot of faith in Dunstan - mentioned him twice in his presser. Also mentioned that Koby and Dunstan play the same role. We should be happy we have real depth in that inside mid position. Dunstan will be a beauty - been overworked from day one. Have a bit of faith in the coach and his ability to identify young talent.

[Johnny Member]

Koby is playing Dunstan's role - not Longs. Coach has a lot of faith in Dunstan - mentioned him twice in his presser. Also mentioned that Koby and Dunstan play the same role. We should be happy we have real depth in that inside mid position. Dunstan will be a beauty - been overworked from day one. Have a bit of faith in the coach and his ability to identify young talent.

There's 'faith' though, then there's observing what's happening now.

Critiquing a player doesn't mean you're necessarily writing them off.


BigMart was spot on about Dunstan. He simply wasn't getting enough pill. Stevens comes in with the defensive attributes (arguably better) but also finds the aggot.

The difference in the team as a result has been enormous.


Doesn't mean Dunstan will never be any good though necessarily.

[desertsaint]

Koby is playing Dunstan's role - not Longs. Coach has a lot of faith in Dunstan - mentioned him twice in his presser. Also mentioned that Koby and Dunstan play the same role. We should be happy we have real depth in that inside mid position. Dunstan will be a beauty - been overworked from day one. Have a bit of faith in the coach and his ability to identify young talent.

There's 'faith' though, then there's observing what's happening now.

Critiquing a player doesn't mean you're necessarily writing them off.


BigMart was spot on about Dunstan. He simply wasn't getting enough pill. Stevens comes in with the defensive attributes (arguably better) but also finds the aggot.

The difference in the team as a result has been enormous.


Doesn't mean Dunstan will never be any good though necessarily.

He was our best mid in the JLT, in the coaches votes against Brisbane. Kicked almost a goal a game. Had two games where he failed to run out the game well and we get posters (not yourself) saying he's gone backwards, he's the coaches pet, they'll scream if he comes back in. etc Just mind blowing how quickly some write off our kids. I was very happy we recruited Stevens and Steele as it was obvious too much was thrown onto young Dunstan's shoulders too early. Now we have depth in the inside mid position and Dunstan can develop playing a mix of afl and vfl till he gets his tank right. Just like Steven, Stevens ,Armo, Ross, and Sinclair.

[Johnny Member]

He was our best mid in the JLT, in the coaches votes against Brisbane. Kicked almost a goal a game. Had two games where he failed to run out the game well and we get posters (not yourself) saying he's gone backwards, he's the coaches pet, they'll scream if he comes back in. etc Just mind blowing how quickly some write off our kids. I was very happy we recruited Stevens and Steele as it was obvious too much was thrown onto young Dunstan's shoulders too early. Now we have depth in the inside mid position and Dunstan can develop playing a mix of afl and vfl till he gets his tank right. Just like Steven, Stevens ,Armo, Ross, and Sinclair.

But I think this is where I differ from some (if not most) supporters.


We weren't good enough when Dunstan was in the team.

He may have been in our best - but our best wasn't good enough. We've only shown that we look like a pretty good side capable of playing finals and being in that top 4-6 spot on the ladder, since he's gone out and we've upgraded with Steele and Stevens.

He may improve, but he needs to if he's to get back in to the team in my opinion. Stevens and him aren't 'like for like'. Stevens is better. Better runner, better ball getter, and just as hard at it if not harder. He's an upgrade.


Billings needs to improve too. I keep reading about his terrific kicking - but I didn't like his disposal at all. He missed goals he should have kicked, missed handballs, and shanked kicks. He found the pill more than usual (having grunt with Steele in the team has helped him get more outside ball), and seemed more intent - but his game wasn't amazing. It may have been really good compared to the rubbish he's dished up in the past, but it was far from elite. Far, far from it.

If we're to win a flag in the next few years, as per the club's blueprint - we need to get better. We either need guys like Billings to get their s*** together and improve - or replace them like Dunstan's been replaced.


Now I'm not saying these guys are done and won't improve. But I'm also not saying they're complete duds either.

I'm saying that at present, they're not good enough for us to win the flag. And they need to be within the next 12-18 months.