When is it the right time to rebuild?

End Of An Era · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:03pm

I take it from most of the comments here that people do not believe we should rebuild. We peaked in 2009 and 2010 and now we are clearly on the slide. Yet people still think we should continue with this batch of players and a few trades and go again.

My question is..

WHEN SHOULD WE SAY WE GAVE IT OUR BEST SHOT AND FELL AGONIZINGLY SHORT AND UNFORTUNATELY IT IS TIME TO REBUILD THE PLAYING LIST?

Please discuss.

Thinline · Post: # 1137952Post **Thinline** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:08pm

There's little point rebuilding now. We get nothing for bottoming out. So that means it's incumbent on us to fight like bastards next year.

And with the likes of Hayes, Goddard, Riewoldt (if fit), Dal Santo, Montagna, Milne and Fisher still well in the mix of the game's upper echelon, it seems to me there's still life in the old boy yet.

2013 and 2014 will be bottom outs for mine.

Sobraz · Post: # 1137953Post **Sobraz** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:10pm

With all these new posters, it's going to become difficult to determine which new additions are trolls, and which are genuine..

With a name like 'end of an era', there's suspicion..

But in answering the question, never go for a full rebuild, just a constant turn over..

If we can develop 3-5 new, young faces in the side next year as regulars, along with Steven, Armo and McEvoy, that'd be a very different side to our 2009/10 GF sides..

Ledger, Sippos, Cripps and Walsh are all genuine possibilities for a consistent run next year, as well as Lynch and possibly Winmar...

Around our still young enough and strong core, the evolution can begin without too much disruption....

i.e. Geelong this year...

End Of An Era · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:12pm

Even the most optimistic (blind) of supporters must surely realize that we are no hope of winning the 2012 premiership. IMHO, we won't even make the top 8.

I think it is time to clear the decks and start again. The longer we put off rebuilding the longer it will be before we challenge again. Our core group of stars will never play in a premiership at St kilda. It's too late. With an ounce of luck, they should have won premierships in 2005, 2009 and 2010.

Johnny Member · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:14pm

It's all about the game plan.

Lyon needs to work out exactly what he thinks will win a flag in the next few years, then try to match a team that can carry it out successfully.

So the 'do we rebuild now?' question isn't really relevant.

It's more like 'how do we build the appropriate list to carry out the game plan that's going to win the flag for us?'.

And that should be happening right now. It should be happening all the time.

jonesy · Post: # 1137960Post **jonesy** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:15pm

End Of An Era wrote:Even the most optimistic (blind) of supporters must surely realize that we are no hope of winning the 2012 premiership. IMHO, we won't even make the top 8.

I think it is time to clear the decks and start again. The longer we put off rebuilding the longer it will be before we challenge again. Our core group of stars will never play in a premiership at St kilda. It's too late. With an ounce of luck, they should have won premierships in 2005, 2009 and 2010.

Can leave luck out of the 05 premiership. Luck has nothing to do with disgraceful injury management and a half hearted effort from the playing group that partied like NYE 2000 immediatly after the siren

Thinline · Post: # 1137961Post **Thinline** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:16pm

If Geelong can bounce back from a prelim drubbing and the loss of Ablett to be a contender, I fail to see how St Kilda with it's quality core and (now) entrenched coach can't rebound after all that off-field s*** and the loss of Len Hayes and Jim Gwilt.

But then maybe I'm blind. I know positivity, however well-reasoned, really threatens some St Kilda people...

PLUGGER14 · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:16pm

End Of An Era wrote:Even the most optimistic (blind) of supporters must surely realize that we are no hope of winning the 2012 premiership. IMHO, we won't even make the top 8.

I think it is time to clear the decks and start again. The longer we put off rebuilding the longer it will be before we challenge again. Our core group of stars will never play in a premiership at St kilda. It's too late. With an ounce of luck, they should have won premierships in 2005, 2009 and 2010.

sniff sniff...me smell something but I'll bite!

In the history of the draft there has never been a worse time to "clear the decks" than what we have now & for the next 2 drafts!

End Of An Era · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:25pm

It's amazing how people can look at the same thing yet see it totally differently. My view is that if we don't clear the decks this year it will just delay the inevitable anyway. You only need to look at other clubs that have been a top side for as long as St kilda. Since 2004 we have had a team capable of winning the flag. That's 8 years now. Have a look at the recent great teams of Brisbane and Essendon. Even they were not able to sustain it for so long. What has happened to them since?

No matter what the Saints do now, the next 4 years will be spent out of the finals. How well we bounce back depends on how low we bottom out.

Joffa 5 · Post: # 1137971Post **Joffa 5** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:26pm

PLUGGER14 wrote: sniff sniff...me smell something but I'll bite!

In the history of the draft there has never been a worse time to "clear the decks" than what we have now & for the next 2 drafts!

I think the old schnoz is working just fine P14, there's no way any sane person would clear the decks now.

borderbarry · Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:32pm

I would start rebuilding now, but do it over 2 or 3 years.

Thinline · Post: # 1137994Post **Thinline** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 12:49pm

End Of An Era wrote:
No matter what the Saints do now, the next 4 years will be spent out of the finals. How well we bounce back depends on how low we bottom out.

You speak with such fluent authority on what the future holds I happily defer to you responsibility for my lotto numbers...

stkildathunda · Wed 14 Sep 2011 1:04pm

borderbarry wrote:I would start rebuilding now, but do it over 2 or 3 years.

This.. Cant be bothered writing it all out again so will just copy my thoughts from TS & BF

Im not saying we dont need a rebuild but we have to be careful of how we go about it. Cant just drop all our experienced players at once. Especially given the shallow & compromised draft that confronts us this year.. Those players listed have NO value on the open market. All we'll be doing is replacing them with blokes from picks 70-120 in the draft.. and what do thsoe picks get us? Dean Polo, Ryan Gamble...

Id much rather us start at the bottom and ditch the blokes from 35-44 on our list (or whatever it is) and then bring in new batch of kids and rotate them through like we did this year. Then next year work on the next batch of players, whether thats the Polo's, Gambles. Still gotta have a eye on winning and not completely stuffing things up and becoming a rabble like Port Adelaide.

If we look at our current list we have 3 senior spots (Gardiner, Baker, McQualter) and 2 rookie spots (Eddy & Gaertner). So have to assume Tommy Walsh gets elevated which leaves 2 senior spots and 3 rookie spots.

I think Paul Cahill needs to go, been on the list for few years and not really showing anything. Nicholas Heyne has struggled but has another year left so will be rookied. Also think Archer will have to go back down to allow the Long Term Injuries to return.

DELISTED/RETIRED
Michael Gardiner
Steven Baker
Andrew McQualter
Robert Eddy (Rookie)
Paul Cahill
Steven Gaertner (not officially listed but we never replaced him)
Alistar Smith

ROOKIE LISTED
Nicholas Heyne
Daniel Archer

So basically would leave us 5 senior spots (4 if Walsh comes up) and reckon thats all the picks we will use this year. Add these 5 guys to last years kids in Cripps, Siposs, Ledger, Crocker and our bottom 10 looks bit better. That would also leave us with only like 30 senior experienced players on our list. We all sudden become a much younger list. Then next year we do the same thing.

Then if you add any trades of players, but who realistically would take some of them? The likes of Ray, Polo, Gamble, Geary are extremely good depth players if it comes to that. If you had those types guys as your 25-30 picked players we all sudden are looking as strong as Collingwood.

One thing Pelchan & Ross are is smart. They will rebuild the list smartly. They will possibly even do the "Sydney" style of rebuild where you spot target the young blokes on the fringe of top sides that cant quite get games. Eg Shane Mumford, Josh Kennedy, Ben McGlynn.. Who all had massive part in our undoing last night...

Half rebuild part of the list this year and then do the other part next year when the draft is back to normal, and as its another "superdraft" like the 2001.....

skeptic · Post: # 1138004Post **skeptic** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 1:06pm

it's never abad time to cut deadwood...

just need to get rid of slow players and players with poor disposal that don't make up for it

lets slowly start weeding them out

shmic_s · Post: # 1138016Post **shmic_s** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 1:13pm

Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn have all shown that you can be competitive while doing a mini-rebuild. No reason why we can't do the same.

borderbarry · Wed 14 Sep 2011 1:30pm

I think you will find that now the season has finished both Archer and Walsh have returned to the Rookie list.

SaintPav · Post: # 1138050Post **SaintPav** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 1:31pm

How many of these guys will be any good and how long will it take?

If half these guys can't play we are rooted.

Cripps
Ledger
Siposs
Crocker
Walsh
Ferguson
Curren
Winmar
Stanley
Lynch

shmic_s · Post: # 1138084Post **shmic_s** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 2:01pm

SaintPav wrote:How many of these guys will be any good and how long will it take?

If half these guys can't play we are rooted.

Cripps
Ledger
Siposs
Crocker
Walsh
Ferguson
Curren
Winmar
Stanley
Lynch

Half would be what i'd expect. If four or five of those guys can come on, then we won't suffer all this doom and gloom imo.

Problem is finding a game breaker. Finding the next Milne or Hayes. But it doesn't happen overnight.
The odds are long, but say Stanely could be mentioned in the same breath as Mitch Clarke in 2 years. Or Walsh finally getting a game and growing into Dawes type player.

If Cripps, Ledger, Siposs, Walsh and Stanely type players become AFL level, we could challenge again. Just have to get them to AFL level.
Enter Ross Lyon his team.

End Of An Era · Wed 14 Sep 2011 2:33pm

My opinion is this.
If Goddard signs on with GWS at the end of next year then that should be the catalyst for us to go into a full on rebuild. We should get 2 top 10 picks for him. We should then trade others that have currency for more early draft picks. Reiwoldt, Dal Santo. and Montagna even.

meher baba · Wed 14 Sep 2011 3:05pm

If Lenny and Gwilt come back fit and firing, and if one or two more of the young players come on (Walsh or Siposs up forward, Cripps or Ledger in the middle) we are a reasonable show for a premiership next year.

2013 is also not totally out of the question IMO.

After that, I'd be looking to start rebuilding right away, possibly under a new coach.

ralphsmith · Wed 14 Sep 2011 3:21pm

We're in a really difficult situation.

Our top end are still good enough to probably get us to the finals but not win a grand final.

They're not old enough to retire, not young enough (energy, drive, passion, enthusiasm, vibrance) to win a grand final.

They are past their peak but not so far past it as to justify throwing in the towel.

We will be older and slower next year.

Not sure what Ross is to do in the big scheme of things.

In the mean time it's absolutely imperative we replace the players who can't kick and/or have bad awareness/footy smarts

We all know who they are.

End Of An Era · Wed 14 Sep 2011 3:57pm

meher baba wrote:If Lenny and Gwilt come back fit and firing, and if one or two more of the young players come on (Walsh or Siposs up forward, Cripps or Ledger in the middle) we are a reasonable show for a premiership next year.

2013 is also not totally out of the question IMO.

After that, I'd be looking to start rebuilding right away, possibly under a new coach.

I'm sorry to say meher babe but you have absolutely no idea.

saintlee · Post: # 1138199Post **saintlee** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 4:25pm

meher baba wrote:If Lenny and Gwilt come back fit and firing, and if one or two more of the young players come on (Walsh or Siposs up forward, Cripps or Ledger in the middle) we are a reasonable show for a premiership next year.

2013 is also not totally out of the question IMO.

Gee, I wish I was that optimistic!

I reckon we are spent as a premiership chance...at best we may crack top 4 next year if all our best players can have good years. But I can't see us threatening the best with the current group.

plugger66 · Post: # 1138203Post **plugger66** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 4:27pm

SaintPav wrote:How many of these guys will be any good and how long will it take?

If half these guys can't play we are rooted.

Cripps
Ledger
Siposs
Crocker
Walsh
Ferguson
Curren
Winmar
Stanley
Lynch

Depends on what you call play. I would expect one 200 game player and 2 one hundred game players and the rest less than 50 based on the pick numbers. None of them will replace Hayes, Milne, Rooy, Joey, Dal, or Chips all of who will nearly bbe finished when these players start producing consistantly. Our last year with even a slight chance is next year. After that it is a complete rebuild IMO.

SainterK · Post: # 1138318Post **SainterK** » Wed 14 Sep 2011 5:50pm

I'm with MB, I reckon if everything aligned next year, Saints would be a chance.