Thinking about this for a while

[The Redeemer]

Last year we learnt how to kick goals , this year we learn how to defend , next year we combine the two and become a juggernaught .

Matthew Knights philosophy of failure

[SaintPav]

It does seem weird that we are so far off it all of a sudden. Didn't see a bottom 3 ladder position coming.

Leigh Matthews has said in the past - when the slide comes, it comes quickly.

Collingwood, Lions, Port, Doggies, now us.

Seems to hold true.

Yup.

Leigh's Brissy team was playing off in a GF and belting us by 10 goals in a final...Then 12 months later we flogged them by 23 goals.

That was a great night.

[SaintPav]

It does seem weird that we are so far off it all of a sudden. Didn't see a bottom 3 ladder position coming.

Leigh Matthews has said in the past - when the slide comes, it comes quickly.

Collingwood, Lions, Port, Doggies, now us.

Seems to hold true.

Yup.

Leigh's Brissy team was playing off in a GF and belting us by 10 goals in a final...Then 12 months later we flogged them by 23 goals.

enjoy..

[cwrcyn]

Midfield is disorganised at the moment, and there's not been the usual continuity of players in there. Hayes came in underdone, played one great game, then got injured. Jones has had form issues and has been in and out of the team, and we all know Dal Santo's woes. Throw in a youngster like Ross, and it all looks very different to recent times. I think Junction Oval summed it up well with the midfield issues and with us being busted open after we deliver the ball poorly into the forward line. This has been the main staple for opposition teams against us. We really get exposed when we lose possession in our front half. Ten seconds later the ball is flying though the sticks at the other end.

Last year we played three tall forwards and it worked very effectively. We've rarely gone in with three tall forwards this year, with Kosi being overlooked and Tom Lee either injured or not considered ready. Losing Maister when we did wasn't helpful, either, irrespective of what may on here think of his value.

Gilbert and Wright would be mighty handy in the back half at the moment, and we seriously miss Schneider's class up forward. Make no mistake, he is a seriously smart and important player.

[Old Mate]

How many players from the 2010 grand final played on the weekend? Only 10. Out of those 10 think how many have declined significantly in form. Milne, Dal Santo, Hayes, Fisher, Ray, Jones etc - none are near their 2010 form. Roo and Joey seem the only two who are player very good footy. Then look at the other 12 in the side and who has improved the team? Roberton, Steven, Geary and Ben....Maybe I'm missing a few. In 2010 we had a poor bottom 6 (Eddy, Mini and those types) now he have a poor bottom 15. Not a quick drop when you take that into consideration.

So you thought 5 wins was about it at the start of the year? Last year we won 12. I certainly expected a drop. I think there is more in it than just age. Why the complete shift in game plan after one year? Why the drop off of Dal and Fisher when they arent even that old?

I can't remember exactly. I think I had us winning between 7-9 and finishing 12-14 on the ladder. We are a bit off from my expectations however I did think we were on the decline and wouldn't challenge for finals like last season.

You've got to remember that our core of players are 80-84 models. Most are close to or older than 30. Fisher is 31 this year and his body isn't coping. Dal Santo has lost a yard and lacks not only quick movement but quick thinking. Basically the game has caught up to our stars. I mean, these players haven't suddenly dropped off. They've been on the decline since the 2010 grand final.

You can't turn over 60% of the team and expect to have a consistent and sound game plan. There will be plenty of inconsistent performances not only from individuals but from the team as a whole. We'll see a more consistent game style (whether it works or not is another thing) when all these new players (mature agers and young draft picks) have played 50+ games together. By that time we'll lose a few stars through age however guys like Ross and Newnes will be very good and steady the ship IMO. We certainly lack a bit of talent though but the next 2-3 drafts should help.

[Old Mate]

That was a great night.

Two things that stand out from that game - Hamill's hit on Akermanis and Milne's 11 goals.

[Munga]

Fact is we ARE in a massive rebuild, and Scotty has one hell of a job in front of him. It's a bit hard to tell if he's a good tactically or not because of the cattle we currently have. This entire year will be tough, maybe even next year as well. He's managing the young guys well. I know White may be a while away, but I'd like him to have four games playing next to Riewoldt while Roo is in dominating form. Same goes for Murdoch and Saunders when Lenny comes back.

I'd like to see some great coaches come in. I hear guys like Riccuito and Ling, they're always one the money tactically and I reckon they'd be a fantastic asset at St Kilda.

[Sainternist]

Perhaps both the Goddard and Gram departures have left a bigger hole than we expected. The team chemistry is way out of whack. The cohesion from last year seems to have vanished. It is a real mystery why most of our more experienced players are in a slump. Is fitness an issue for them? Or are they playing with little ambition, knowing the "window" has closed and they won't see any success for the rest of their AFL careers? To be honest, I'm almost looking forward to when most of the older players hang up their boots. Roll on a whole new era, I say.

[saintsRrising]

So the question is how can this side lose to the GC and the WB. .

No 1 is that workrate and commitment is not there, and in particular amongst most of the older players.

While yes were are "rebuilding", if we had a better workrate we would have won several more games.

[remboy]

I must admit I've been thinking the same thing. Last year 12 wins, a good percentage and we lost a few by less than a kick. This year we're losing to Gold Coast and the Dogs and looking like a bottom 5 side. This only 3 years after going within a whisker of a flag. I odn't know the reasons but there must be something behind it.

[Munga]

Amazing video. Domination out of the middle. Effectively creating acres of space in the forward line. And reminders of how rubbish the surface was.

[Doctor Two]

No 1 is that workrate and commitment is not there, and in particular amongst most of the older players.

While yes were are "rebuilding", if we had a better workrate we would have won several more games.

Which is why I have a man crush on the captain. - gives 100% effort 100% of the time. even now that we are out of contention.

Must be hard to front up week after week knowing that in reality finals are out of the question. The elders in the team could be excused for dropping off a little with no motivation to put in 100% when 90% will probably do.

[Old Mate]

Amazing video. Domination out of the middle. Effectively creating acres of space in the forward line. And reminders of how rubbish the surface was.

Funny, I was watching that game last week. Luke Ball looked amazing back then, and only 21 years of age. He hasn't looked anything like it since 2005.

[gringo]

The frustrating lack of backline run was really obvious at the ground. The dogs went small and quick in their forward line and we were stretched. Our obsession with boundary hugging was so frustrating too. Several times we went wide even when there were at least three obvious link ups straight up the corridor.

[noob]

Also guys like Saad and Milera are having second year blues or have been found out. Milne is declining.. our midfield never kick goals regularly.

[Teflon]

I'd like to see some great coaches come in. I hear guys like Riccuito and Ling, they're always one the money tactically and I reckon they'd be a fantastic asset at St Kilda.

Agreed totally - do we know if these guys can coach? No. Do we know these guys have come from successful institutions? Yes.

Look, is there a drop off cause of;

Age -?
Mentally shot?
Coach/team balance?
Opposition just gone past us?

Answer is we simply dont know. We do know we cant for the sake of our club go down the path of sacking a young, inexperienced senior coach. We have to back him in....BUT we have to do something to offer us the greatest chance to develop quickly. IMHO the only option in the near term is to support him by bolstering our assistant coaches stocks with BOTH quality from successful sides/eras AND if we can.....with an experienced, proven assistant coach currently coaching at a top side. Make it so.

Id also like us to ensure Pelchen is making the recruitment calls - he's paid the big bucks, has the reputation and regardless of his role HE will be judged by what we select over the next 2-3 yrs which will undoubtedly make/break our next flag tilt chances.

I also don't think Watters ought to be judged on win/loss over the next few years -but on "how" we win/lose. I think that's the whole alarming part causing us concern....we are losing to sides we feel "on paper" we should beat with a game plan (as Plugger points out) that does appear to have shifted in a year...

[fugazi]

We did have Stanley playing as permanent forward last year....we looked better with him up there.

I remember a couple of commentators (Gerard Healy from memory)saying Stanley was one of our most important players for our overall structure.

So having him as a (not very good) key back has robbed Peter to (not convincingly) pay Paul

[Toy Saint]

Plugger, I reckon the problem is in our forward structure. Last year we mostly had Kosi or Stanley up forward, and strength and skill in Schnieder to use as a target. Against Essendon we had FOUR small forwards, none with physical strength, yet we have been kicking to them as targets. Oposition are winning the ball away from us too easily and launching counter attacks.

Personally, I'd like to see more taller stronger targets in the forward line. Plenty on this forum are not fond of Kosi or Blake, but both may be able to help the structure. Kosi as a forward target, and Blake to free up Stanley or Fisher to play forward. Agree this is not a long term strategy, but it could help us win games.

Also, I'd load up with young midfielders, and rotate them through the forward line. Teach them to kick goals like they did as juniors.

[Cairnsman]

All this because we lost to the Dogs and the Crows...interesting.
Having expectations of 9 wins for the season might be part of the problem and also basing expecations for this season on our 12 wins from last season which in hindsight might be considered an over achievement.
The reaction to this weeks loss to the Dogs seems similar to that of the loss to the Gold Coast and really in hindsight the Gold Coast were always ahead of us and maybe we should wait to see how the Dogs go over the next month to see if we haven't shown them enough respect also.
And if you are perplexed about our postion have a think about North, they are only one win ahead of us which is surprising considering their stage of development.

Collingwood spriralled to the bottom of the ladder and stayed there for a few years after successive defeats in the 02 and 03 Grand Finals. IMO we were always going to follow a similar pattern and hopefully we follow their pattern and maintain our nerve and don't start jumping at shadows and start blaiming individuals like the coach becuase every time you throw out the coach you go back to the start line unless you have a list like we did in 2007 when RL took over.

My advice, lower your expectation of wins to approximately 2 to 4 for this year and maybe next year and just enjoy watching the next generation grow. And also drink beer during games at the emergency rate.

[saint66au]

Players improved from 2012: Roo, Jack, Ben (maybe)

Everyone else are either treading water (Siposs, Saad) or gone backwards, be it form or injury. We've had injuries that we don't have the depth to cover and our kids, while looking promising, have not exhibited any 'star quality" tat you need to avoid a tumble down the ladder.

Mature aged recruiting not great. Roberton v good, Saad ok. Maister Milera on delist pace and signs on TDL not encouraging.

Reckon your answer is in there somewhere

[saint66au]

All this because we lost to the Dogs and the Crows...interesting.
Having expectations of 9 wins for the season might be part of the problem and also basing expecations for this season on our 12 wins from last season which in hindsight might be considered an over achievement.
The reaction to this weeks loss to the Dogs seems similar to that of the loss to the Gold Coast and really in hindsight the Gold Coast were always ahead of us and maybe we should wait to see how the Dogs go over the next month to see if we haven't shown them enough respect also.
And if you are perplexed about our postion have a think about North, they are only one win ahead of us which is surprising considering their stage of development.

Collingwood spriralled to the bottom of the ladder and stayed there for a few years after successive defeats in the 02 and 03 Grand Finals. IMO we were always going to follow a similar pattern and hopefully we follow their pattern and maintain our nerve and don't start jumping at shadows and start blaiming individuals like the coach becuase every time you throw out the coach you go back to the start line unless you have a list like we did in 2007 when RL took over.

My advice, lower your expectation of wins to approximately 2 to 4 for this year and maybe next year and just enjoy watching the next generation grow. And also drink beer during games at the emergency rate.

Possibly your finest ever post. Agree prettry much 100%

[groupie1]

I think it comes down to the a graders slowing down, and the next group, the b+ graders slowing down, and losing gram and Goddard has effected our run and carry.

So we have a slow down of our guns and while we appear to have some quality youngsters they are 50 games short of really being able to fill the void

It still seems a quick fall from grace especially with apparently 7AA in the side. Dont reckon any of us saw this coming. I try to be pretty honest but I couldnt see 5 or so wins after 12 last year. And I did know BJ and Grammy would be big losses.

Ya gotta think:
Between last year and this we are down
Lenny Hayes
BJ
Gram (no real loss)
Dal
half of Milne
Dempster
Fisher
from most games.

Schneider too, but he was also missing much of last year.

Only Roo and Joey are probably playing at their bestish, and nobody else has improved, except Roberton.

So the side is down 5 1/2 genuinely good footballers + Gram minus Roberton.

take Cloke, Pendelbury, Swan, Beams and Daisy and half of Reid and Wellingham (Gram equivalent) out of the Pies, (and give them Q Lynch), without anyone to replace them, and see how they'd go.

The test will be second half of the year... how many rungs can Siposs, Stanley, Newnes, Ross, Hickey, Wright, Saunders, Dunnell, Saad, Murdoch, Lee, Spencer White, etc. climb?

[groupie1]

I must admit I've been thinking the same thing. Last year 12 wins, a good percentage and we lost a few by less than a kick. This year we're losing to Gold Coast and the Dogs and looking like a bottom 5 side. This only 3 years after going within a whisker of a flag. I odn't know the reasons but there must be something behind it.

Demographics, mate, we don't have any 24-27 year old guns; who want to be the majority of any top 4 side.

[stevie]

Four years isn't that long ago but it sure is in football.

Four years ago, the Saints and Dogs played that epic PF. Either team transported to now would be cruising at the top of the ladder, undefeated.

Instead we are near the bottom, fighting over scraps. Lol

[dragit]

Four years isn't that long ago but it sure is in football.

Four years ago, the Saints and Dogs played that epic PF. Either team transported to now would be cruising at the top of the ladder, undefeated.

Instead we are near the bottom, fighting over scraps. Lol

It's a good point, a couple more years back and the demons beat us in a final