Make or Break 2015

[bergholt]

Most of the guys on our 2015 list will still be here next year. That's the way it always happen. But there are a bunch who need to have a big year in order to make the 2016 list:


Sam Fisher: He'll be 33 mid-year and he's played a total of 31 games in the last three years. I have no doubt his footy brain is still good enough, but if his body doesn't hold up this year he can't possibly go around again.

Adam Schneider: To be honest I'm not sure what he could possibly do to keep his spot. He was already demoted to the rookie list, and there are a bunch of other guys who need game time as small forwards. Added to that, he's only played 26 games across the last three years. Great servant, but surely this is his valedictory year.

Ahmed Saad: He's 25 and a half when the season starts, hasn't played footy in 18 months, and had a poor second season before his suspension. He's a great kid and he has the right attitude, but he needs some luck with chances and injury in order to show that he's not just wasting a spot on the list.

Jason Holmes: I'm sure the club would be happy to have him around for another year, being an international rookie it costs us very little. But from his personal perspective, if he'd been on the list for two years and didn't feel he was close to a senior game, I'd be surprised if he could be bothered to stay around. Needs a couple in front of him to get injured to have any hope of a game.

Tom Simpkin: Great attitude but doesn't seem to have a position at AFL level. He's been tried as key back, third tall back, third tall forward - none of them are quite the right fit. I'd love to see him make it but given he turns 25 during the season, surely it's almost time to give up waiting.

Cameron Shenton: 13 games last year was significantly more than I thought he'd play. He's already done well coming from a long way back. But being an older guy (25 at the end of the year), there's a limit to how long he can take up a spot. Needs to cement himself onto that half-back flank, show that he has the endurance and decision making skills to play proper quarter-back, and just maybe he'll have a real AFL career.

Dylan Roberton: A really tough year in 2014 for Robbo, though looking at his career that's not actually much of a surprise. Actually his breakthrough 2013 was the exception. I'm not sure exactly what his spot is, but I'd love to see him recover from last year's foot injury and find it. Given his age and relatively large amount of experience, he could be really handy for us across the next five or eight years.

Daniel Markworth: Everyone seems to rate the kid both on field and off. But three full years on the list without playing a game is not a good sign. Desperately needs some luck this year, so that we can see what he's capable of and keep him around into 2016 looking forward to more of it.

Tom Curren: Has already done better than most off the rookie list, so there's no shame if that's as far as it goes. He was dropped to the reserves for five games in the middle of the year last year, and for the last round, so he'd be under no illusions about where he sits in the pecking order. Disposal his main weakness, really needs to improve that in order to be more than a bit player. Probably gets another year anyway, but if too many go past him he could end up off the list without any real say in it.

Arryn Siposs: The man with all the talent is in a really precarious position. Injuries haven't helped, especially the timing of his current problem, but fundamentally it's really unclear whether he's got a spot at AFL level. Never given a real go as a Crameri-type full forward and he hasn't developed the tank (yet) to be proper mid. At this point I expect him to play less than a handful of games this year and go out with a whimper rather than a bang at the end of the year. But for me that would be the most disappointing end since Caydn Beetham.

Darren Minchington: Sealed his spot on the 2015 list with one bullet pass. Still, we've got a lot of small forwards so he'll need to push into the midfield and do that a lot more if he's going to have an AFL future. All ahead of him to do but stranger things have happened (S Milne).

Brodie Murdoch: Maybe a controversial one but I just haven't seen anything in Brodie yet. On the list for a couple of years and has only played dribs and drabs of games, never seemed to have a spot and get a real run at it. Most likely he'll play 10 or 15 this year, show a bit and still be around in 2016. But if guys like Acres, Membrey and maybe McKenzie were to go past him then I could see him being quietly cut at the end of the year.


Opinions? Have I missed anyone?

[matrix]

Schneider gone
Fisher gone if can't get on the park
Sippa gone

Bull will stay
Mrkworth 50/50
Current stays
Shdnts will stay
Robbo will stay.

[matrix]

Schneider gone
Fisher gone if can't get on the park
Sippa gone

Bull will stay
Mrkworth 50/50
Current stays
Shdnts will stay
Robbo will stay.

[Bluthy]

The problem with some of these early 20's guys is that they weren't in a good development environment at the critical early phase of their AFL career . They didn't get games or attention from the senior coach (Mr Lyon by all accounts had barely anything to do outside his top 26) or probably even assistant coaches. I think a lot of them lacked people pushing them with direction, focus and work rate to keep making those incremental steps and have got a little lost in the system. I think its also they way we tended to draft generic "good" players without considering where they could play or what their weaponary is that would make them stand out in the AFL. The combination of those two things is we have a big batch of pretty generic players - Murdoch, Saunders, Geary, Curren, Minchington, Ross, Shenton, Saad, Simpkin, Sippos - who its hard to work out where they would play - they aren't genuine mids and there are only so many back flankers you can use.

Its no coincidence that a big chunk of our draftees under Richo have gone straight into the firsts - Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Acres. Richo wants them under his direct control and development while they are first learning the basics of AFL. That's the Port Adelaide model where AFL games are seen as the best development for young players (different to teams like Hawks and Sydney who like their youngsters to stew in the VFL for sometimes years). The problem for guys like Curren, Shenton and Saunders is each year a fresh batch of talented kids come in and Richo is going to want some or a lot of them in the firsts straight away. I expect McCartin, Goddard and McKenzie to get AFL games pretty early and if they show the work rate and talent I could see them playing a lot the way Dunstan and Billings have. The club know with the experience retiring at the top end we need a production line system getting games into the next talented generation to get them to that critical 50-75 game mark asap.

Balancing that is we will keep having regular retirees over the next few years, plus players like Savage, Delaney, Weller etc are not guaranteed to make it so there will still be spots. So these fringe players still have a chance to make it but they need to realise they are in a dogfight for an ongoing spot on the list and come out brimming with fire and purpose every game they get. Geez even show a bit of mongrel out there. We'll need some of that going forward so make that your thing egt. Curren could become the next niggly, vicious Stevie Baker tagger.

[plugger66]

The problem with some of these early 20's guys is that they weren't in a good development environment at the critical early phase of their AFL career . They didn't get games or attention from the senior coach (Mr Lyon by all accounts had barely anything to do outside his top 26) or probably even assistant coaches. I think a lot of them lacked people pushing them with direction, focus and work rate to keep making those incremental steps and have got a little lost in the system. I think its also they way we tended to draft generic "good" players without considering where they could play or what their weaponary is that would make them stand out in the AFL. The combination of those two things is we have a big batch of pretty generic players - Murdoch, Saunders, Geary, Curren, Minchington, Ross, Shenton, Saad, Simpkin, Sippos - who its hard to work out where they would play - they aren't genuine mids and there are only so many back flankers you can use.

Its no coincidence that a big chunk of our draftees under Richo have gone straight into the firsts - Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Acres. Richo wants them under his direct control and development while they are first learning the basics of AFL. That's the Port Adelaide model where AFL games are seen as the best development for young players (different to teams like Hawks and Sydney who like their youngsters to stew in the VFL for sometimes years). The problem for guys like Curren, Shenton and Saunders is each year a fresh batch of talented kids come in and Richo is going to want some or a lot of them in the firsts straight away. I expect McCartin, Goddard and McKenzie to get AFL games pretty early and if they show the work rate and talent I could see them playing a lot the way Dunstan and Billings have. The club know with the experience retiring at the top end we need a production line system getting games into the next talented generation to get them to that critical 50-75 game mark asap.

Balancing that is we will keep having regular retirees over the next few years, plus players like Savage, Delaney, Weller etc are not guaranteed to make it so there will still be spots. So these fringe players still have a chance to make it but they need to realise they are in a dogfight for an ongoing spot on the list and come out brimming with fire and purpose every game they get. Geez even show a bit of mongrel out there. We'll need some of that going forward so make that your thing egt. Curren could become the next niggly, vicious Stevie Baker tagger.

Got to say I reckon the first part isn't right. The reason they aren't probably good enough is because they were low picks. The reason the younger ones look better is because they were high picks so that usually means they were better. The reason they play now is because our side is no good. There wasn't any point in playing young guys weren't probably good enough when drafted just to get games into them especially as we were still trying to win our second flag in 140 years. And anyway who are these young guys that are still at the club from the RL era anyway?

[Bluthy]

The problem with some of these early 20's guys is that they weren't in a good development environment at the critical early phase of their AFL career . They didn't get games or attention from the senior coach (Mr Lyon by all accounts had barely anything to do outside his top 26) or probably even assistant coaches. I think a lot of them lacked people pushing them with direction, focus and work rate to keep making those incremental steps and have got a little lost in the system. I think its also they way we tended to draft generic "good" players without considering where they could play or what their weaponary is that would make them stand out in the AFL. The combination of those two things is we have a big batch of pretty generic players - Murdoch, Saunders, Geary, Curren, Minchington, Ross, Shenton, Saad, Simpkin, Sippos - who its hard to work out where they would play - they aren't genuine mids and there are only so many back flankers you can use.

Its no coincidence that a big chunk of our draftees under Richo have gone straight into the firsts - Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Acres. Richo wants them under his direct control and development while they are first learning the basics of AFL. That's the Port Adelaide model where AFL games are seen as the best development for young players (different to teams like Hawks and Sydney who like their youngsters to stew in the VFL for sometimes years). The problem for guys like Curren, Shenton and Saunders is each year a fresh batch of talented kids come in and Richo is going to want some or a lot of them in the firsts straight away. I expect McCartin, Goddard and McKenzie to get AFL games pretty early and if they show the work rate and talent I could see them playing a lot the way Dunstan and Billings have. The club know with the experience retiring at the top end we need a production line system getting games into the next talented generation to get them to that critical 50-75 game mark asap.

Balancing that is we will keep having regular retirees over the next few years, plus players like Savage, Delaney, Weller etc are not guaranteed to make it so there will still be spots. So these fringe players still have a chance to make it but they need to realise they are in a dogfight for an ongoing spot on the list and come out brimming with fire and purpose every game they get. Geez even show a bit of mongrel out there. We'll need some of that going forward so make that your thing egt. Curren could become the next niggly, vicious Stevie Baker tagger.

Got to say I reckon the first part isn't right. The reason they aren't probably good enough is because they were low picks. The reason the younger ones look better is because they were high picks so that usually means they were better. The reason they play now is because our side is no good. There wasn't any point in playing young guys weren't probably good enough when drafted just to get games into them especially as we were still trying to win our second flag in 140 years. And anyway who are these young guys that are still at the club from the RL era anyway?

The point is we haven't had the greatest development environment under Lyon and then Watters muddled approach. Combine that with trading our picks away and we have a mini-generation of players who are struggling to break AFL level and really need to find a way to get an edge in what they do. Richo is going to naturally be biased to the youngsters coming in now that he has a hand in drafting and has more time to develop the way he wants - Templeton a rookie for example got a permanent spot right from the get go. Saunders started really well last year, he was busting his butt to get to a lot of contests and lock the ball in but he dropped away perhaps with niggly injuries. There are spots in the midfield up for grabs at the moment - Ross, Murdoch, Saunders, Curren need to be trying to grab them before we draft a gun mid or two or three over the next few years. If you don't have stand out skills then you've gotta be busting your butt with running, physicality, desperation, team ethos etc.

[Con Gorozidis]

Got to say I reckon the first part isn't right. The reason they aren't probably good enough is because they were low picks. The reason the younger ones look better is because they were high picks so that usually means they were better. The reason they play now is because our side is no good. There wasn't any point in playing young guys weren't probably good enough when drafted just to get games into them especially as we were still trying to win our second flag in 140 years. And anyway who are these young guys that are still at the club from the RL era anyway?

If Draft order was all that mattered then Carlton would be top of the ladder. 14 top 20 picks on their list. Of course 76 will just lazily disagree with everyone and everything. He likes to to keep things simple.

Back to the content of the post - Accurate,thorough and thoughtful post as usual berg. I agree with all of those player assessments. I do think Murdoch is a good player - but its hard to see where he fit in at AFL level. Same for Siposs. They are kind of in-betweeners. And how many half-back flankers can we have on our list? I think Murdoch will battle it out for a position with Membrey as a medium fwd. Not an easy task.

[plugger66]

Got to say I reckon the first part isn't right. The reason they aren't probably good enough is because they were low picks. The reason the younger ones look better is because they were high picks so that usually means they were better. The reason they play now is because our side is no good. There wasn't any point in playing young guys weren't probably good enough when drafted just to get games into them especially as we were still trying to win our second flag in 140 years. And anyway who are these young guys that are still at the club from the RL era anyway?

If Draft order was all that mattered then Carlton would be top of the ladder. 14 top 20 picks on their list. Of course 76 will just lazily disagree with everyone and everything. He likes to to keep things simple.

Back to the content of the post - Accurate,thorough and thoughtful post as usual berg. I agree with all of those player assessments. I do think Murdoch is a good player - but its hard to see where he fit in at AFL level. Same for Siposs. They are kind of in-betweeners. And how many half-back flankers can we have on our list? I think Murdoch will battle it out for a position with Membrey as a medium fwd. Not an easy task.

My god you really do have issues. Must be because you had to move again. And you talk about simple. Lets just draft players from the country who need to do weights so they get big and all problems are solved. Seek help. Or better still send me one of your wonderful Pm that you send me at least 5 times a week. They sum your intelligence up.

[PJ]

Nice summary and yes all of those players would have a question mark over their heads. Not sure I'd describe Sipposs as the man with all the talent. That's yet to be shown. Yes he has a good kick but I think he's a fair way from showing anything special.

[Old Mate]

Murdoch will surprise a few. He has similar traits to a young Dangerfield. Just needs patience from supporters and given the opportunity.

[RODOS]

Minchinton was looking like a legitimate VFL mid by the end of last year, really tearing it up. If he can take that to the next level who knows how good the kid can be. But he's one that I think shows sign of an onballer that didn't previously

[St Ick]

Harsh assessment of Minchington. You probably need to go back through the archives to look at his last month at Sandy. Yes, it was VFL, but he dominated in the midfield and it was that reason why he got elevated, not because of one kick.

[bergholt]

Minchinton was looking like a legitimate VFL mid by the end of last year, really tearing it up. If he can take that to the next level who knows how good the kid can be. But he's one that I think shows sign of an onballer that didn't previously

Harsh assessment of Minchington. You probably need to go back through the archives to look at his last month at Sandy. Yes, it was VFL, but he dominated in the midfield and it was that reason why he got elevated, not because of one kick.

Excellent! I've only seen him a couple of times at VFL level and while he looked OK to me, it's a big gap between that and AFL. He's sub 6 foot so that means he needs some serious tricks to be AFL quality - whether that's pace, disposal, endurance, footy brain; hopefully some combination of them. Looking forward to that coming through this year.

(Yes, it was a bit tongue in cheek to say he only made it because of one kick, but as a guy who mainly watches AFL, he hadn't shown heaps more except a couple of nice goals.)

[dragit]

Sam Fisher
Adam Schneider
Ahmed Saad
Jason Holmes
Tom Simpkin
Cameron Shenton
Dylan Roberton
Daniel Markworth
Tom Curren
Arryn Siposs
Darren Minchington
Brodie Murdoch
Have I missed anyone?

Good post, I think there are a few more too…
Saunders needs to play seniors or he will face the chop.
Dempster is close to finished
White is on a one year contract and if he had a bad year effort-wise, that would be it.
Ray, good solid player, but not one for the future… may get moved on or traded.
Savage played some good football, but also played some awful football… if he can't crack seniors he would face the axe pretty quickly.
Lee has two years, but like a few others, if he can't play seniors or his shoulders fail again we will let him go early

That's a lot of players on the cusp, hence why we are 18th... We love all these blokes because they are saints, but the reality is that most of the above will be replaced before we play finals again.

[saintspremiers]

You've missed Tommy Lee.

If he still shows nothing I reckon he's in big trouble for next season even if contracted (wouldn't be on much coin).

Spencer White needs to find consistency but probably still has 2016 to make a name for himself.

Really good list and shows it should be easy to dump 5 to 8 at the end of the season in our pursuit of new talent.

[Gershwin]

Sam Gilbert needs to have a decent year in order to stay on the list.

[matrix]

spencer needs a tank

[bergholt]

Good post, I think there are a few more too…

Thanks drago, I'm going to disagree with most of these though.

Saunders needs to play seniors or he will face the chop.

Yeah, I'd definitely have him borderline, I haven't really rated what I've seen so far.

Dempster is close to finished

I disagree, I think he's a monty to stay around. May not be in his AA form but he's not that far off it - it's just that he's surrounded by lesser players. Fisher is very likely gone this year and there'll need to be some steel and experience in the backline to get Goddard, Webster, guys like that up to AFL standard. He's versatile and doesn't get injured much, he's not a particularly old 31 year old. I'd pay him $400k+ to stay on the list for 2016 and maybe even 2017 if his form holds up.

White is on a one year contract and if he had a bad year effort-wise, that would be it.

I'd be surprised if they gave up on him that easily, he's only just 20. But I suppose if he isn't putting in the hard yards then you're right, there's no point keeping him on the list.

Ray, good solid player, but not one for the future… may get moved on or traded.

Agree on all that except that he'll be 30 at the start of 2016 so we can't possibly trade him. If there's no-one else to get rid of then he might be delisted or moved to the rookie list, but there's no point getting rid of him for pick 200 in the draft.

Savage played some good football, but also played some awful football… if he can't crack seniors he would face the axe pretty quickly.

Yeah, definitely. I just think he's odds on to do enough this year to at least hold a spot, competition's not exactly going to be stiff. If he can't play 18+ games this year then we're well rid of him.

Lee has two years, but like a few others, if he can't play seniors or his shoulders fail again we will let him go early

I suppose if he was injured again he might go, but it feels like we've put in so much effort and time on this guy that we need to give it every chance to pay off. He's got a lot of good characteristics - tall, decent mark, very good kick. 10 games and 20 goals would be enough this year for me to keep him around for one last chance. (That would be slightly better than his 2013.)

That's a lot of players on the cusp, hence why we are 18th... We love all these blokes because they are saints, but the reality is that most of the above will be replaced before we play finals again.

Absolutely. I really hope this time next year we're looking at a much shorter list. 8 or 10 will be gone, and with any luck 5+ of the kids will make themselves a spot for the next decade.

[bergholt]

Sam Gilbert needs to have a decent year in order to stay on the list.

Agreed, he's only played 15 total across the last two years. I think he's fine when he gets on the park, and he has no value to anyone else at this point, so I think he stays around unless he completely breaks down.

[stinger]

delaney's one i would be looking at....not afl standard imhfo.....

[gringo]

Sam Fisher
Adam Schneider
Ahmed Saad
Jason Holmes
Tom Simpkin
Cameron Shenton
Dylan Roberton
Daniel Markworth
Tom Curren
Arryn Siposs
Darren Minchington
Brodie Murdoch
Have I missed anyone?

Good post, I think there are a few more too…
Saunders needs to play seniors or he will face the chop.
Dempster is close to finished
White is on a one year contract and if he had a bad year effort-wise, that would be it.
Ray, good solid player, but not one for the future… may get moved on or traded.
Savage played some good football, but also played some awful football… if he can't crack seniors he would face the axe pretty quickly.
Lee has two years, but like a few others, if he can't play seniors or his shoulders fail again we will let him go early

That's a lot of players on the cusp, hence why we are 18th... We love all these blokes because they are saints, but the reality is that most of the above will be replaced before we play finals again.

I don't think most of those guys are likely to be gone. Saunders goes okay and would be ahead of Murdoch. Lee as you said is contracted and Savage had a good end to the year once he found a spot. Ray will probably stay around as we need some senior heads around for the post Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna era and he's a few years younger than those guys I think. White is an interesting one, they obviously want to kick him up the bum but he just looks to good to give up on. We nearly cried when Rhys left and he took much longer to come on.

To me the most vulnerable are Siposs and Simpkin. Then it's from a pretty big pool but guys like Minchington are probably needing to find a spot quickly. Markworth needs some games and of a decent standard too.

[bergholt]

delany's one i would be looking at....not afl standard imhfo.....

I don't mind Delaney. He's not a superstar by any stretch of the imagination, but we're not exactly flush with key defenders so having a guy like him sit at full back every week is pretty handy. Certainly better than throwing Goddard to the wolves, Dawson style. Reminds me of someone like Jamie Shanahan. I reckon he'll probably play 150 and start being moved out just as we're challenging for finals again.

[gringo]

delany's one i would be looking at....not afl standard imhfo.....

I don't mind Delaney. He's not a superstar by any stretch of the imagination, but we're not exactly flush with key defenders so having a guy like him sit at full back every week is pretty handy. Certainly better than throwing Goddard to the wolves, Dawson style. Reminds me of someone like Jamie Shanahan. I reckon he'll probably play 150 and start being moved out just as we're challenging for finals again.

I think he's a keeper, he's not the guy to play on Franklin but he's the guy who negates the gorillas like Cloke and Ben Brown type by standing his ground. He's probably never going to win a brownlow but he is a handy type. KPBs aren't easy to come by.

[Saints43]

Sam Gilbert needs to have a decent year in order to stay on the list.

He's only 28 and a really important player for us.
The only way he'd be leaving is a pay dispute I reckon.

[Saints43]

delaney's one i would be looking at....not afl standard imhfo.....

I thought he fell away in the last few games of the season (looked really tired) but had been pretty good up until then. And he didn't get much help in the tall department.