Inspired by that strangely ignored thread (please check it out)
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=92081
I do my assessments based on win/loss or 50/50 (for which I 'award' half a win.) On that basis, I had us at 9-14 wins last season, so settled on 12.
Round 1 - Melbourne - Etihad - Saturday - WIN
Round 2 - West Coast Eagles - Domain - Saturday (7 day break to 6 break with Travel from Melbourne) - LOSS
Round 3 - Brisbane Lions - Etihad - Sunday (8T-Perth to 8) - WIN
Round 4 - Collingwood - Etihad - Sunday (7 to 9T-Sydney) - WIN
Round 5 - Geelong Cats - Etihad - Sunday (7 to 6) - WIN
Round 6 - Hawthorn - Launceston - Saturday (6 to 6) - WIN
Round 7 - GWS Giants - Etihad - Friday (6T-Tassie to 7) - 50/50
Round 8 - Carlton - Etihad - Saturday (8 to 7) - WIN
Round 9 - Sydney - Etihad - Saturday (7 to 6T-Melb) - 50/50
Round 10 - Western Bulldogs - Etihad - Saturday (7 to 8) - 50/50
Round 11 BYE
Round 12 - Adelaide - Adelaide Oval - Friday (13 to 7T-Geelong) - LOSS
Round 13 - North Melbourne - Etihad - Friday (7T-Adel to 13) - WIN
Round 14 - Gold Coast - Etihad - Sunday (9 to 8) - WIN
Round 15 - Fremantle - Domain - Sunday (7 to 7T-Geelong) - 50/50
Round 16 - Richmond - Etihad - Saturday (6T-Perth to 7T-Adel) - WIN
Round 17 - Essendon - Etihad - Friday (6 to 6) - WIN
Round 18 - Sydney - SCG - Saturday (8 to 7) - LOSS
Round 19 - Port Adelaide - Adelaide Oval - Saturday (7T-Sydney to 7T-Melb) - 50/50
Round 20 - West Coast - Etihad - Sunday (8T-Adel to 7) - WIN
Round 21 - Melbourne - MCG - Sunday (7 to 8T-Canberra) - WIN
Round 22 - North Melbourne - Etihad - Sunday (7 to 7) - WIN
Round 23 - Richmond - MCG - ??? - WIN
So that's,
14-wins, 5-50/50's, 3-losses.
(We should easily beat the Freo, and I expect us to do so. But given our travelling record, I've put that one down as 50/50 to be objective. So this will be a very 'telling' game re our progress.)
So that's 14-19 wins.
Being conservative (so as to appeal to a certain demographic amongst the readership here
) with the 50/50's...
16-wins, 6-losses - top six, with a touch of luck - top 4.
Teams rated inferior to us:
Everyone from last year who finished below us, plus North, Hawks, Geelong (flattered by last year's ladder position, and if Dangerfield gets injured... ) and Eagles.
Teams rated about level with us:
Dogs, Crows.
Hardest to beat:
The franchises - Giants and Sydney (though they're now lacking for key defenders, and I'm seriously wondering if Tippet hasn't become slightly toxic to them? But hey, cry me a river...
)
Finals:
We
will replace North. Hawks and Geelong should also drop out, but I'm not sure who would be able to replace them, so they may well remain(?)
Flag:
Wide open. We aren't quite ready, but have great upside, and could well pinch it this year.
From 2018 onwards we will be very very very serious flag contenders.
Players to watch:
Carlisle - will end up more than satisfying his doubters.
Billings - his critics need to look at the highlights from Round 3 vs Collingwood - which was before his 'shin splints' kicked in again. Long goal from outside 50, off a couple of steps.
Paddy Power!!!!!! I reckon he just needs one or two reasonable bags, and he's off and running (and goaling).
Acres - the competition will see what we already see. We rate 2016 as his break out season, but the competition will say it was 2017.
Stevens - (Gotta' love how everyone calls him 'Steven'
) and Steele - will really add some steel (
) against enemy big bodied mids.
Long - will be in the team and 'contributing' by end of the year. Will take a few more years, but give this bloke a few pre-seasons - will be an absolute star!
Brown - I think Marto's prediction may be on the money.
Gresh - will be an absolute star, but it will be interesting to see how much of the second year blues he suffers from first(?)
Looking ahead:
Battle - I rate him, but may take a couple of years. Will he have grown enough to be a key forward, or will he be the third marking option/Membrey-type? Will he be a mid? Has the endurance (apparently), but doe he have the mobility?
'The Marshall' - another I really rate him - ruck, key forward or key back. Will take time, but will be an absolute draft steal!
Freeman - no hurry - I just want to see some VFL games, then some good VFL games, then a seniors run around by some time round mid season.
Under pressure:
Longer - Marto nailed it again. (On a roll big fella'.
) Can't run nor mark. Ordinary kick. Competitive and combative tap ruckman, but no more. I'm disappointed that we didn't manage to off-load him. The rest of the competition must surely wake-up soon. Damn!
Holmesy - Age and inability to find the ball/read the play are the issues. I want to see him playing at either FF or CHF, with lots of leads. And if needed, license to go kick-chasing too.
Simply needs to get the footy in his hands.
Minch/Lonie/Sinclair - Mounting pressure on places as a small forward/on-baller.
Savage - Mounting pressure on his half back role. (For example, I rate the inexplicably maligned Webster as being significantly better in
all facets, apart from kicking length. Then we also have the likes of MacKenzie and White.)
Others of note:
I would expect some further improvement from THE MAV
, but not game-changing stuff. When he first started with us, he seemed (to me) to be rushing to get rid of the footy as soon as he got it. Now, he has confidence, and hangs onto it, and takes the opposition on, and succeeds. He's also got very strong hands in a marking contest.
I see a similarity with Acres... except one could always see that Blake was trying to take the game on... now he's executing what he was previously attempting to do. He's hard to tackle, quicker than what people think, and strong enough to stand up in the tackle if caught (a bit Harvey-esque like that).
What we haven't seen yet from Acres is his marking. He's got a big leap, and will end up proving very dangerous in the air up forward. Similarly with Billings. In his first couple of seasons he often got his hands on it deep in our forward line, but just failed to complete the mark. I did notice though, in the last couple of games when he had a run on the ball, he ended up taking a few round the ground pack marks.
We have a huge upside!!! The only ‘downside’ (Roo) is still showing no signs of – slowing down. His new
go wherever the hell you think wing role gives us three (top line) players in one. I see no reason why he won't play in our 2018 GF side - at least. Great piece of coaching their Richo. B)
Similarly with the Dempster. Why are so many on here retiring him??? As I read in another post -
look at his output, not his age. He's currently our best defender - though I hope that Carlisle, and eventually also Goddard, will surpass him.
If I was a gambling man, I'd give you evens on the Saints making top six. And if you were, you'd probably take it!
I'm not a gambler. But if I was, those odds look very very generous. I reckon the wheels would have to really fall off big-time for us not to make top six.
Talent-wise, I'd rate us equal third (with the Dogs, and just behind the possibly staggering Sydney, and then a little further again behind the Giants). But with considerably more upside than those teams, or anyone else - except maybe the Giants.
Paying 3/2 just to make the 8 (equal ninth with port, and unbelievably, freo and essendon). Melbourne are shorter.
I find that bemusing.
Sure, Essendon will improve, but not by much? They weren't good enough before the gear happened, and are hardly going to be better now. (Only better than last year, which is saying very little.)
Speaking of 'saying very little', I don't get why those tankards Melbourne are rated above us??? They even lost to Essendon last year(!) Lewis will help them (lost the plot there btw Hawks, so thanks for your prime first round draft pick
), but the tankard/losing mentality still reigns down there Melbourne. And I'm still laffn' at how they think the worst-ever No 1 draft pick has finally turned the corner. Turned the corner into a cul-de-sac.
Getting a few soft uncontested kicks, when you were actually recruited to be a star CHF...? Hint, Demons. Think Roo. (No, not
Roos.
) Hilarious. The Watts he good at is soft and lazy.
As for Freo. Sure, they've recruited blokes to fill the key forward gaps... but that doesn't mean those blokes are any good(!) And they still haven't replaced MacFarlane down back. Then, there's the poor (more like destitute) man's Tiprat being is on the (very) slippery slide, on the nose with Rosco, and he doesn't even want to be there anymore. Sandilands is on his last legs (when not injured). And there's big questions about Fyffe.
Freo. They're old. (Who’d have guessed that would happen?
) And they're not playing finals any time soon. Cry me another river.
So, what are the odds on offer of us finishing above all of the Freo, Demons and the Drug Runnerss? That's one bet I would take. B)
Thoughts Saintsationalists, thoughts Aeon?