Carlton’s Pick 1

[BackFromUSA]

Pick 1 is in discussion for Gold Coast 2 and 6. According to a real ITK this deal is close.

Carlton are then looking to turn 2 into 5 and 10.

Carlton would end up with 5, 6 and 10.

Gold Coast want Walsh.

Port get first pick of the Adelaide players.

[Cairnsman]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

[fugazi]

GCS are idiots

[rodgerfox]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

[Cairnsman]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

[DJ Higgins]

Top picks are Walsh lukosious and Rankine. Then it is the kings Smith and rozee. Now in saying that max king is an unknown quantity and I am not sold on rozee. He is pretty small and wasn't mentioned a lot until the end of the season.
What I'm getting at is the top 3 are guns, then it is Smith and Ben king. Then it's a gamble with max and then rozee. Carlton may regret giving.up a top 4 pick in a few years time

[Dis Believer]

Would we consider offering them 4 for 6 and 10? They turn 1 into 4 & 5 and we turn 4 into 6 & 10.....

[saintspremiers]

The game has changed for us now that we have Gubby.
He starts FULL TIME from 1 November so let’s hold tight until then.

Has there been any pick swaps since trade week and half finished?

Pick swaps can happen at any time until 16 November and then again on the two draft nights.

[st.byron]

Pick 1 is in discussion for Gold Coast 2 and 6. According to a real ITK this deal is close.

Carlton are then looking to turn 2 into 5 and 10.

Carlton would end up with 5, 6 and 10.

Gold Coast want Walsh.

Port get first pick of the Adelaide players.

So that would mean :

1. Gold Coast
2. Port
3. GC
4. Saints
5. Carlton
6. Carlton
7. Bulldogs
8. Adelaide
9. GWS
10. Carlton

Bit of a gamble really. Deal themselves out of the top 4 for three picks between 5 and 10.

[dragit]

Juicy.

Is walsh that good? The #1 pick has a pretty ordinary history... I would think Carlton could easily end up with a better player with 3 picks inside 10.

[SaintPav]

If we could turn pick 4 into 2 picks and still get the player we want Eg Smith that would be a great outcome.

[DJ Higgins]

Pick 1 get a bad run due partially to where they end up and the coach associated with the club they end up. Ie playing in a bad team will not improve a #1 draft pick as playing with a gun team. There fore they seem to take longer to develop if at all. Picks that go at around 6 can seem to be be the best pick of the draft in the early stages of their career as they have great qualities and are playing for teams on the rise with a feeling of optimism around the club or those that used to be good but have aged but still have some gun players that are now passed their prime

[tedtheodorelogan2018]

Carlton should take it. They have had more no 1 picks than Clive Palmer has had a pizza and coke.

To us, very certain we are going in with pick 4 unless we get a deal too good to refuse.

[rodgerfox]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

[Joffa Burns]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

[bigred]

They wont do it.

[rodgerfox]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

[ausfatcat]

Ask Melbourne if they would swap Dom Tyson, and Salem for Kelly

[rodgerfox]

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

FWIW, I'd be quite supportive of us trading pick 4 for multiple picks in the top 10, given our list and stage of our development.

But giving up pick 1 (or any top 3 pick in any draft) and slipping your first pick to outside the top 4, given Carlton's list and stage of their development - is very high risk I'd have thought. Especially given the hype around the top end of this draft.

[Joffa Burns]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

Imagine choosing Ball over Judd

Yes, there is argument for both sides.

Failed in the Kelly deal, would have been a debacle in the Reiwoldt draft, may have got Bartel & Dal Santo instead of Hodge in 2001 and may have been the deal of the century in 2012 or 2014.

Live trading gives you a much better option to assess the risk and reward, looking forward to the club strategy.

[Cairnsman]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

So coming back to my point re good maths. The intoxication of landing that 'once in a generation' player with one pick verses a more risk averse approach and increasing the odds with multiple (high) picks. With three picks you might jag a marque player but you will be just as content to land an A grader or two.

It also spreads your depth which futher increases your odds of high quality player availability during the season.

[rodgerfox]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

So coming back to my point re good maths. The intoxication of landing that 'once in a generation' player with one pick verses a more risk averse approach and increasing the odds with multiple (high) picks. With three picks you might jag a marque player but you will be just as content to land an A grader or two.

It also spreads your depth which futher increases your odds of high quality player availability during the season.

The top 4-15 in the draft is littered with spuds too, over the years.

The top 3 rarely is comparatively.

[the dome]

If the Saints hold onto #4 the odds are in our favor for improving the midfield. Not guaranteed of course, Watts & Ball being 2 cautionary tales that generates some anxiety.
Then there's Gold Coast & what they may be eyeing off with those top 3 picks in the top 3.
A happy surprise may be there for the taking on draft night.
I wont name names.

[the dome]

Meant to text 2 picks in the top 3.

[ListManager]

Every year you hear the same old same old. The top 3 are guns and then you can throw a blanket over the next 20 odd. But in reality it never works out that way. If I was List Manager at the Saints and I could turn pick 4 into pick 8 and 15 I would do it in a heart beat.