Which Clubs Are Best Positioned To Jump Into AFL Finals In 2020?

[n1ck]

WIN PROFILES
While ladder positioning and percentage have been helpful, simply looking at a team's win totals from the season prior provides excellent insight for clubs looking to crash the Finals party.

And it appears as though 9-10 wins is that 'sweet spot' constituting 22 of the 55 (40%) teams that made the leap. Here, four teams qualify from last year's ladder with all of St Kilda, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Adelaide fitting the win-profile of a team perhaps on the verge of returning to September.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/pre ... ls-in-2020

[Secret Kiel]

Anything less than finals in 2020 will be a fail.

[shanegrambeau]

WIN PROFILES
While ladder positioning and percentage have been helpful, simply looking at a team's win totals from the season prior provides excellent insight for clubs looking to crash the Finals party.

And it appears as though 9-10 wins is that 'sweet spot' constituting 22 of the 55 (40%) teams that made the leap. Here, four teams qualify from last year's ladder with all of St Kilda, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Adelaide fitting the win-profile of a team perhaps on the verge of returning to September.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/pre ... ls-in-2020

I'd be interested to know what constitutes the sweet spot for teams likely to slip out of the eight, based on previous years...or based on some or any metric.

If there is a formula for going up, there must be one for going down.

That, or we go on some other heurostic or holistic whatever you call it - hunch?- about who is gonna come down.

My hunch would be GWS, West Coast, Bulldogs, and Brisbane...and I'm thinking the Pies have a chance to slip too.

But the pile of teams between the 8 and where we finished also looks vulnerable. Port Adelaide for instance.

[prwilkinson]

Got a half decent fixture.... hopefully we step up this year.

[n1ck]

WIN PROFILES
While ladder positioning and percentage have been helpful, simply looking at a team's win totals from the season prior provides excellent insight for clubs looking to crash the Finals party.

And it appears as though 9-10 wins is that 'sweet spot' constituting 22 of the 55 (40%) teams that made the leap. Here, four teams qualify from last year's ladder with all of St Kilda, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Adelaide fitting the win-profile of a team perhaps on the verge of returning to September.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/pre ... ls-in-2020

I'd be interested to know what constitutes the sweet spot for teams likely to slip out of the eight, based on previous years...or based on some or any metric.

If there is a formula for going up, there must be one for going down.

That, or we go on some other heurostic or holistic whatever you call it - hunch?- about who is gonna come down.

My hunch would be GWS, West Coast, Bulldogs, and Brisbane...and I'm thinking the Pies have a chance to slip too.

But the pile of teams between the 8 and where we finished also looks vulnerable. Port Adelaide for instance.

The other part of the article linked earlier talks about this too haha

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/pre ... ht-in-2020

[Gershwin]

Anything less than finals in 2020 will be a fail.

I would lower your expectations.
A new coach + a new gameplan + many new players = similar finish to this year
Finals in 2021 more likely.

[Secret Kiel]

Anything less than finals in 2020 will be a fail.

I would lower your expectations.
A new coach + a new gameplan + many new players = similar finish to this year
Finals in 2021 more likely.

Coach has been at the club 18 months
Coach is on the record as saying he is only making small tweaks to the game plan.
5 new players 3, 2 are premiership players, 1 has played in a GF, one has played for 10 years and in finals.

9 wins or less is a failed year.
10-12 wins will be a pass mark, just.
The kitchen sink has been thrown at finals so it's a must.