I think we’re at the precipice!

[skeptic]

I made a similar post in 2017... a season that has quite a few eeerie parallels to this one.

The context is, that in rd 16 we curb stomped Richmond and we’re a game or so inside the 8 with a decent draw... and we looked to set to make the finals.

Richo’s contract had been extended by 2 years, a move I actually didn’t mind at the time... have him continue building for the future with no pressure to do short sighted recruiting in a desperate attempt to make finals.

We came out the following week against a lowly Essendon, overwhelming favourites... We came out rattled. Couldn’t hit a target, frequently kicked into the man in the mark, missed gimme goal after gimme goal, Essendon had free players everywhere.

Sound familiar? We lost by 10 goals.

We lost 4 of the last 6... scrapping wins against a mediocre WCE at home and touching up North. Teams with class romped over us as did Melbourne.

Whilst disappointed... I actually felt ok about where things were at.

Yeah it was a touch end to the year but we really demonstrated that we’d made progress, could match it with the best... and with a few tweaks, I thought we were finals bound.

The suggestions I made at the time:
Clearly needed to find a way to have 2 rucks in the team... not one of Hickey/Longer and Bruce
Needed another key defender and 2 classy mids... pace in particular was a requirement
Goal kicking was an issue
Had to move away from having too many players whose contribution was limited to pressure acts alone and we had way too many Flankers in the team
Too many games where we showed up rattled and couldn’t recover.

Interestingly enough... all seem very familiar.

I was disappointed in 2018 that we didn’t seem to have addressed any of those points and... well we know what happened.


Fast forward to 2022...
We looked good going into the bye. Ratts’ contract was extended shortly thereafter (or during depending on what you believe). Contentious decision on this forum.

We lost a tough game vs Brisbane which was disappointing... but I think 3 injuries in 20min sunk our night.

Poor ball movements, terrible kicking at goal and injuries combined with lack of depth saw us dip out of the 8 despite having multiple opportunities.

Going in to 2023... there is a lot to like and a lot to be optimistic about. Windhager, Owens and NWM for a start... super exciting youth. King’s stocks have dropped markedly in recent weeks but all in all... he was a decent threat for the Coleman at one point. Ross has had his best year for a while, Higgins looked like he was going to be elite at one point.
Sinclair became a bonafide star... Wilkie was Wilkie. Battle ended the discussion about where he should play. Marshall carried on... Ryder showed glimpses despite time wearing him down. Mason Wood really had a crack as did Dmac who completely revived his career. We took some big scalps this season and really looked finals bound for a while.

On the negative side... firstly, the repeats:
Goal kicking and skills is general still needs to improve

Ruck situation is better as we have Marshall but with the rumours of Paddy retiring, Heath still developing and Campbell not getting a look... we need a second option.

Psychology - many have pointed out our inability to put in a solid four quarter effort for pretty much the entirety of the year and again we’ve had a number of games where we came out rattled, and haven’t looked near it since the outset. Kicking into the man in the mark, spraying shots, completely unable to man up... our zone sliced through like a hot knife through butter.

What we need... an elite class match winner in the forward end. DeGoey is the name flagged though it’s apparently unlikely. Tears games apart and makes things out of nothing.

Another classy kid that can take the heat off of a Hill... Amon was flagged... but personally, the name of the game is consistency IMO and we need a power mid that produces week in and week out. Taranto seems like a pipe dream but he’s prototype of what we need. He’s Amon and Matt Crouch in one IMO.

Another tall forward has been raised... ideally one that could pinch hit up forward. Could we have another crack at Bing?

Ultimately though... the big area for improvement lies in the following group of players that I call the “should bes” a talented group that are played and expected to perform at a particular but too often don’t hit the mark. Not all of these players... heck not even most of them should be moved on but Ratten’s success will come from making the right decisions here:
Billings
Clark
Coffield
Gresham
Hill
Jones
Wood
Long
Webster

That’s the group that have all been around long enough and on any given day... all of them are match winners. Some of that group like Wood have seen their stocks go up, others like Billings have dropped... a guy like Webster has stayed the same... whereas Coffield/Clark, injuries have played their part.
All have been on the list for a will and few have consistently played to the standard that they are capable of.

And finally the game plan... this one has been done to death... but man another season of the type of ball movement we’ve seen this year will seemingly sink another year, destroy supporter interest, inhibit our ability to attract anyone... and it certainly will be the primary coach career killer for Ratten.
Getting Hayes in I feel is a good start but the coherence has got to step up across the board... from both ends.

Will be a very interesting 12 months. To me... it looks like disaster is looming but there has already been some movement and the promise of things in the works. I hope he has a trick or two up his sleeve because IMO, we are very much at the precipice. Climb or fall.

[nostalgicsaint]

Out

Geary
Hannerbury
Hill
Ryder
Joyce
Campbell
Kent

In
De Goey
Amon
M Crouch
Lewis Melican
Xeri (part of Hill trade)
Draft pick
Draft pick
Draft pick

Hopefully combined with a better run with injuries. Side would look okay.

Melican Howard Wilkie
Sinclair Battle Clark
Billings Steele Amon
Gresham Membrey Hayes
Higgins King Xerri

Marshall De Goey Crouch

Crouch 2, S Ross, Windhager, Owens

Emg. NWM, Long, Wood, Jones, Paton, Butler, Bytel, Byrnes, Sharman, Webster, Lienert,

[cwrcyn]

I can't say I feel the same sense of gloom about it all. Apprehension, yes.

The next two drat/trade periods will decide whether we'll fall or rise. I suspect next year will be another 10 or 11 win season. It's not like we have zero talent, but there are holes, and when there are holes, the bucket leaks.

let's look at the established players who have at least 5 years football left in them

Marshall
Steele
Sinclair
Howard
Gresham
Clark
Coffield
Paton
Butler
Higgins
Jones
King
Long
McKenzie
Membrey
Wilkie
Battle

You can add two more mature age players who are yet to be established, but are competent players

Highmore
Hayes

That's 19 players

Now let's look at the developing players who can be competent senior players from next year

Owens
Windhager
Wanganeen-Milera
Sharman


Bytel
Connolly

Now we're up to 25 players


Then there are the mature age players who could at a stretch could possibly play 5 more years

Crouch
Hill
Webster
Ross

Now we're up to 29 players


Based on all that, I don't see us falling off a cliff in the next couple of years, but we may be mediocre again. That's a real possibility.

A lot of that depends on the improvement of the following players

Coffield
Clark
Wanganeen-Milera
Owens
Windhager
Sharman
King


If those guys really rise a notch or two, then we can be a much better team.

In the meantime, draft the best possible young talent so that in 5 years we're not staring into a crevasse.

[cwrcyn]

I also still feel that Adams could be a decent player. He needs to get fitter, stronger, and more professional, but from what I've seen, he has the raw talent.

And then there's Max Heath who I'm confident will be a decent senior player in 3 years time.

[SaintDippa]

One word to turn us around. Get Choco to assist and teach.

[skeptic]

I can't say I feel the same sense of gloom about it all. Apprehension, yes.

The next two drat/trade periods will decide whether we'll fall or rise. I suspect next year will be another 10 or 11 win season. It's not like we have zero talent, but there are holes, and when there are holes, the bucket leaks.

let's look at the established players who have at least 5 years football left in them

Marshall
Steele
Sinclair
Howard
Gresham
Clark
Coffield
Paton
Butler
Higgins
Jones
King
Long
McKenzie
Membrey
Wilkie
Battle

You can add two more mature age players who are yet to be established, but are competent players

Highmore
Hayes

That's 19 players

Now let's look at the developing players who can be competent senior players from next year

Owens
Windhager
Wanganeen-Milera
Sharman


Bytel
Connolly

Now we're up to 25 players


Then there are the mature age players who could at a stretch could possibly play 5 more years

Crouch
Hill
Webster
Ross

Now we're up to 29 players


Based on all that, I don't see us falling off a cliff in the next couple of years, but we may be mediocre again. That's a real possibility.

A lot of that depends on the improvement of the following players

Coffield
Clark
Wanganeen-Milera
Owens
Windhager
Sharman
King


If those guys really rise a notch or two, then we can be a much better team.

In the meantime, draft the best possible young talent so that in 5 years we're not staring into a crevasse.

Didn’t mean to come across as gloomy…

I think there is a lot to like and we have serious potential to be a major threat. I guess my point was more that we need to lean in towards fixing the problems which five or so years ago… we failed to identify how significant they were
Like you pointed out… 19 good players in the core

I reckon we have a heck of a good base but we need to continue striving for the major improvements

[cwrcyn]

We are probably three players short of where we want to be

Now, if Windhager and Owens really hit the ground running in 2023, then things could look decidedly better. Owens is going to be a beast, and I think he'll be a major headache for the opposition. Windhager has shown he has the hardness and the concentration to to a fine job. Wanganeen-Milera is likey to be still a bit part player until 2024

Gresham had a great first half of the year. I suspect that his knee was troubling him from the bye onwards. Clark needed 3/4 in of the season to get going, and Coffield didn't play. Full seasons from these three guys will help.

Up forward we have two options. We play Hayes at CHF or we play Sharman there. Either way, it'll be much better than just having King and Membrey

[cwrcyn]

I'd be happier if we had a big 198cm key defender ready to go.

[ROLS-LEE]

Out

Geary
Hannerbury
Hill
Ryder
Joyce
Campbell
Kent

In
De Goey
Amon
M Crouch
Lewis Melican
Xeri (part of Hill trade)
Draft pick
Draft pick
Draft pick

Hopefully combined with a better run with injuries. Side would look okay.

Melican Howard Wilkie
Sinclair Battle Clark
Billings Steele Amon
Gresham Membrey Hayes
Higgins King Xerri

Marshall De Goey Crouch

Crouch 2, S Ross, Windhager, Owens

Emg. NWM, Long, Wood, Jones, Paton, Butler, Bytel, Byrnes, Sharman, Webster, Lienert,

Battle and Membrey are not KPP. We need a CHF and CHB or we need to change our game plan to suit Membrey and Battle. Both too small for the bomb it down the line game plan.

[Impatient Sainter]

I have the 'glass half full' approach. I dont believe our list is as bad as some have suggested. I firmly believe they (list) seriously under performed and some players even went backwards this year. For some reason Ratten has lost any belief or flare in his coaching and it shows in the way the team are playing. The group have been playing stoggy confused footy for the back half of the year, not helped by their goal kicking conversion rates.

Hopefully Ratten and the club can identify the issues and address it with the review. Somehow he needs to establish a working method to transition our ball movement from defence to the forwards other than the go to down the line then reset. He then needs to get his forward line sorted and find a lot more flexibility into his coaching and player development. Basically he has fallen into the Richardson trap of 'pidgeon holing' players.

I agree we need another versatile key position player, but our biggest list needs (which has been for 15 years) are genuine midfielders. Dynamic burst players who can find space and use the ball well out of traffic. Windhager & Owen are promising but its too much of an ask on 18-19 year olds. Clark has potential, but not the application or work ethic to get his body and fitness to an elite level. Gresham is injury prone and due to his lack of pace and inability to get space butchers the ball far too regularly. Steele & Crouch are just workman like mids and dont really give a point of difference. Steele is a great tackler but as a leader shows no real on field leadership, Crouch likewise. Jones has had a really poor year, hopefully he can refind his form, with a settled preseason.

Put De Goey and another into our midfield, then all of sudden it becomes much more dynamic. Add another key position player like Frampton and that releases Howard, Battle or Wilkie. The players are mostly there, but the coaching and development staff need to find the way for the list to play at a more consistently higher level. High level systems and practice with expectancy, practice and more practice are the answers.

[Zed]

One word to turn us around. Get Choco to assist and teach.

Honestly I will learn how to do cartwheels if we got Choco
That will be quite a sight watching an old overweight guy like me doing cartwheels.

The other thing we need to do is hold onto guys who generally use the ball well (Hill & NWM)and try and trade in some more good ball users. Topping the champion data ladder for Clanger kicks is a recipe for mediocrity

[SaintPav]

Bells ring….

Also a great song.

[B.M]

Not sure why it’s time to hit the panic button??

We’ve won 11 lost 10

2-3 more wins we are pushing top 4

So how do we get that???

Add to the list!

We don’t need to end up where we were 2013-2015

If we go down that slippery slope we become completely irrelevant

Not sure we can survive a four year rebuild down the bottom!!!

I sure as f*** don’t want to spend the next 4 seasons watching 5 wins a year and loads of 10 goal plus floggings - North Melb like

We need to ADD to the list like we did in 2019 - look what happened

[cwrcyn]

Aside from the Allison selection, I think we've got most things right since 2019, irrespective of the ongoing hand wringing over Brad Hill.

I have a reasonable amount of trust in our current recruiting staff to get the job done again and I'd rather not see us get sucked into putting all our eggs into one basket by getting a high profile player from another club with a history of off field behavioural issues who's only in it for the money.

I would be loathe to give up any first or second round draft selections over the next three years

[B.M]

You should NEVER give up first round DPs

No matter the offer

Never sell your future for the now

[nostalgicsaint]

You should NEVER give up first round DPs

No matter the offer

Never sell your future for the now

There are about 20 players I'd be happy to give up any first round draft pick for.

[nostalgicsaint]

Out

Geary
Hannerbury
Hill
Ryder
Joyce
Campbell
Kent

In
De Goey
Amon
M Crouch
Lewis Melican
Xeri (part of Hill trade)
Draft pick
Draft pick
Draft pick

Hopefully combined with a better run with injuries. Side would look okay.

Melican Howard Wilkie
Sinclair Battle Clark
Billings Steele Amon
Gresham Membrey Hayes
Higgins King Xerri

Marshall De Goey Crouch

Crouch 2, S Ross, Windhager, Owens

Emg. NWM, Long, Wood, Jones, Paton, Butler, Bytel, Byrnes, Sharman, Webster, Lienert,

Battle and Membrey are not KPP. We need a CHF and CHB or we need to change our game plan to suit Membrey and Battle. Both too small for the bomb it down the line game plan.

Wouldn't look too much at the positions for key backs etc.

Howard and Melican are both key backs.

Hayes and Xeri are both genuine kpp players too.

[Teflon]

Not sure why it’s time to hit the panic button??

We’ve won 11 lost 10

2-3 more wins we are pushing top 4

So how do we get that???

Add to the list!

We don’t need to end up where we were 2013-2015

If we go down that slippery slope we become completely irrelevant

Not sure we can survive a four year rebuild down the bottom!!!

I sure as f*** don’t want to spend the next 4 seasons watching 5 wins a year and loads of 10 goal plus floggings - North Melb like

We need to ADD to the list like we did in 2019 - look what happened

As Riewoldt said
Less than 22 cupboard is bare
King - assured qualm
NWM Owens Windhager- all shown signs …..but could easily stall development like we’ve seen tine and again
We can’t afford to stay in no man’s land we have to get talent to become genuine challenger
If that means going backwards to go forward I’m ok with that
Not interested in finishing a gallant 10th

[bangaulegend]

Interesting times Ryder,Hannebery,Kent,Geary gone only Ryder will be missed the others only played a handful of games between them this season . Hill might be on the way out(but we will have to pay part of his wage if that happens) Hayes to come back in & he is a speculative pick but showed a bit in his few games . Billings & Gresham have some trade value but both injury prone both 1st round picks & we would not get a first round pick even if we bundled them together IMO so probably keep them . So we get pick 9 or 10 & IMO we keep that pick so how do we attract a gun OOC player that is going to help us get to the next level . Degoey is too big a risk is injury prone & has baggage sure he can play but unless we get him relatively cheap (which I doubt) IMO not worth the hassle . Where does the improvement come from ,we can all pat our selves on the back & say we only missed out by a game or 2 making the 8 & we can blame the draw, injuries & it's not that bad but we will be in the same situation again next year unless the players we have already can do something remarkable . Not all doom & gloom but we need to get busy quickly IMO

[SydneySainter]

Sorry, but while I appreciate the glass half full attitude, I’m not content with accepting that the pros outweigh the cons of this season.

To be 8 and 3 and to finish the season 11-11 (assuming the Swans put us to the sword, as usual) is a disastrous result and the club just seems content with ending the season by coming together for a cuddle and resting on their laurels because they keep hitting their KPI’s of being nice people.

There is just no hunger for the ultimate success at this club and we as supporters are just starting to accept it as the norm.

[nostalgicsaint]

Sorry, but while I appreciate the glass half full attitude, I’m not content with accepting that the pros outweigh the cons of this season.

To be 8 and 3 and to finish the season 11-11 (assuming the Swans put us to the sword, as usual) is a disastrous result and the club just seems content with ending the season by coming together for a cuddle and resting on their laurels because they keep hitting their KPI’s of being nice people.

There is just no hunger for the ultimate success at this club and we as supporters are just starting to accept it as the norm.

Big difference between seeing the possible cogs for future success and being content with what has occurred this year.

Ryder, Hannerbury, Kent, Geary and potentially Hill all out. Isn't exactly just accepting the situation to date. It is just not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

[saynta]

Sorry, but while I appreciate the glass half full attitude, I’m not content with accepting that the pros outweigh the cons of this season.

To be 8 and 3 and to finish the season 11-11 (assuming the Swans put us to the sword, as usual) is a disastrous result and the club just seems content with ending the season by coming together for a cuddle and resting on their laurels because they keep hitting their KPI’s of being nice people.

There is just no hunger for the ultimate success at this club and we as supporters are just starting to accept it as the norm.

Big difference between seeing the possible cogs for future success and being content with what has occurred this year.

Ryder, Hannerbury, Kent, Geary and potentially Hill all out. Isn't exactly just accepting the situation to date. It is just not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

With Hanners, Kent, Geary and Hill all out, it will be interesting (maybe not) to see who the forum dropkicks pick as their favorite whipping boys in 2023. Probably Hunter, or even Sebb who they have chosen this year to damn with faint praise.

[SydneySainter]

Point taken, but this seems to be Groundhog Day for when 2017 ended - the cogs were still there, we were just unlucky to miss the eight, the coach had needlessly been re-signed for a further two years…

Jury is out on our coach, the previously lauded Lethlean (our new CEO) now starting to smell a bit for the evolution of the Hannebery and Hill deals and we’re still short of a tall defender, forward, ruckman and that elusive elite midfielder before we’re in realistic contention for challenging.

How long have we been chasing this elite mid for now? Wasn’t that top of our shopping list on 2017???

There is an alarming pattern emerging.

[Killa]

Just to speculate, add Hickey, McCartin and Acres to the structure and class of our List.

Hickey allows Marshall to play up forward, taking pressure off King.

McCartin, with his Number 1 Draft selection credentials confirmed after just 1 (One) uninterrupted season of AFL football, fixes our defensive KPP height deficiency.

And Acres adds class to our mid-field.

That speculation identifies how far short of a challenging side we are.

Allowing for the likes of Billings, Clark, Coffield and Gresham finally enjoying injury free seasons.

And allowing for the further development of Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager and Owen (plus our untried youth including Peris, Adams and Heath)

Then we add who we recruit and Draft (noting 18 year olds are not going to win you a Premiership in Year 1 - but they are icing on the cake as they mature and develop.

Then we can move past our 30 year old list cloggers such as Ross and Webster.

Because at 30 years of age, they should not only be the dominating driving class at St Kilda but in contention for All-Australian positions, so competition elite winning games of football at Club level.