Choco proposes final 12

[st.byron]

The Age - Mon 3rd March

PORT Adelaide coach Mark Williams has submitted to the AFL a radical and in-depth proposal to expand the final eight into a final 12.

Further enhancing his reputation as a lateral-thinking successor to Kevin Sheedy among the coaches, Williams has given the AFL a detailed, power-point presentation in which he argues the case for the final 12, and against a defective final eight.

While the Williams proposal was developed before the AFL declared its intention to expand to 18 teams, the 2004 premiership coach yesterday said that an expansion in the number of teams made the final 12 more feasible.

"If 18 teams come in, it's just adapted totally, easily," Williams said. "It would sell a lot easier to the general public."

The AFL's broadcasting and commercial operations chief, Gillon McLachlan, who is responsible for the draw, and football operations manager Adrian Anderson are among the executives who have been shown Williams' final 12, which was presented back in December.

Under what he has called the "Guthrie-Williams Finals System" — the proposal was first developed by Williams' friend, software designer Rex Guthrie — Williams would have the top four teams given a bye in the first week of the finals.

Meanwhile, in that first week, the teams placed from fifth to 12th on the ladder would play one another in knock-out finals; in the second week, the top four would play the four survivors from the first week.

The final four would then play off — as in the present system of preliminary finals — before the grand final. Like America's National Football League, all finals are knockout.

Williams argued that the final 12 would greatly reduce the incentive for "tanking" by clubs who stand to benefit from a lowly finish.

"The bottom four teams are still fighting out too, so the tanking thing is almost reduced … there's certainly much more integrity in the whole process as it goes through," Williams said.

"They (the AFL officials) were interested in that. And obviously, it gives the broadcasting rights, the broadcasters more finals as well, which is a positive thing for the AFL.

"Round 21, fighting for the 13th, or 12th position, it's pretty exciting."

But the Port Adelaide coach's main argument was that the final 12 would be better than the eight because it properly rewarded the top two teams, which had not fared well under the present final eight system (2000-2007).

Williams and Guthrie put forward five separate versions for how the final 12 might work — all of them following the premise that the top four have a week off and that all matches were elimination.

Williams favours what has been termed the "Advantage Plus" system, in which 11th and 12th would play off, along with fifth versus sixth, seventh versus eighth, and ninth against 10th.

His reasoning for that system was that it gave the minor premier the easiest run — the top team would play the winner of 11th versus 12th in a semi-final.

Williams preferred that system to what was arguably fairest of his five models, the "Ranking Version" under which the top team would play the lowest ranked winner, the second team played the second lowest and so on.

"It's always played at the home ground of the highest team as well, so they have a big advantage, but there's still some chance of the others winning."

The other systems were called "Standard" "Advantage" and "Combination". All versions have two extra finals in week two of the finals series, compared to now.

Williams said it was "definitely" a better chance for the top two teams to reach the grand final. He said it was "very much" like a tennis draw, which was designed to assist the highest ranked seeds.

"You get a week off, you play the worst team and you also play at home," he said.

"They're all elimination. Sometimes in finals you actually play each other more than once during the finals series, that happens. Now, you can't do (it) in this new series, whoever you play, you play once, and if you beat them, you move on and they're out."

Guthrie, a former president of the Inventors' Association of South Australia, said the final 12 will give Victorian teams with more representation and the MCG with more finals. "It would give you a lot more games there."

Guthrie contended that a final 12 would work better than a final nine, 10 or 11 — a final 10 lending itself to two unwieldy groups of five.

A top-four team that won the premiership would still play three matches, a team from 5-12 would play four matches en route to a flag.


What a pox idea.
This would make a mockery of the finals.
Williams enthuses about a fight for 12th spot then goes on to say that it's more likely that the top two teams would play off in the GF, given that they play the winners of 9th v 10th and 11th v 12th in week 2.
If it's more likely that the top two teams play off in the GF, why bother having more finals in the first place?
This is truly a dog of an idea. Never mind earning your spot in the finals, why not just have a final 16. That would add another two finals at least and wouldn't the broadcasters love that. Choco, you're a numbnut.

[rexy]

I would have thought that having 8 out of 16 in the finals was already over kill and rewarding mediocrity, At least 8 out of 18 will be better, No probs with rejigging the finals structure to give the top 2 best chance a t the granny but no more teams in the finals IMO.

[st.byron]

I would have thought that having 8 out of 16 in the finals was already over kill and rewarding mediocrity, At least 8 out of 18 will be better, No probs with rejigging the finals structure to give the top 2 best chance a t the granny but no more teams in the finals IMO.

Agree with you Rexy. They're already stretching it with 8 out of 16. 8 out of 18 would be better IMO.

[bigcarl]

a ridiculous plan. why have a full home and away roster to sort out which teams are the six worst in the competition?

just devalues the whole idea of a home and away season and rewards mediocrity by putting two thirds of the competition in the finals.

if this ever comes to pass i'll give it away

[BAM! (shhhh)]

I like the concept for it's disincenting tanking. What I don't understand is how that concept gets carried forward without disadvantaging teams in th 5-8 position. I also don't understand Williams premise that top 2 teams need additional help (though I guess his Power did...) with a non elimination home final and the rest of their games at home until the MCG showdown, the top 2 are hardly in trouble... folk wisdom generally has it that if you're not top 4, you're unlikely to make the GF.

It bears consideration I guess... last year would have been an interesting one to have the teams from 6-12 playing off, since they were so close, but at the end of the season, it's optomistic to think that there will be only 4 teams who are undeserving, outside the top half of the standings, you have to think you're talking fodder.

While I like the motive, at the end of the day, I think it's overkill for the premise suggested... it seems very AFL though, perceive a problem, and with no idea of scope and impact of perceived problem, undertake radical change to the game to "fix" it.

[Moccha]

Why bother having a home and away season, lets just get straight into the final series. Now that's lateral thinking.

I reckon Choco should be called a lateral stinker!

[bigcarl]

there should be a top four (or top six at most) to reward teams for consistency over an entire season.

the only reason there is a top eight at the moment is to stretch the football dollar further.

more games to televise, more money for the afl coffers.

the afl would want to be careful. the public isn't as dumb as it thinks and would see such a plan for what it is ... a cynical money-making exercise.

22 rounds to sort out which two thirds of the competiton has a right to contest the premiership.

gimme a break

[bigcarl]

Why bother having a home and away season, lets just get straight into the final series. Now that's lateral thinking.

very nicely put moccha. why would you even risk your better players until august or even september if two thirds of the competition makes the finals?

just a dumb idea as is even expanding the competiton to 18 teams.

16 is too many already and two more will just make it more difficult for our club to ever taste premiership glory

two thirds of the clubs have agree for new teams to come in and i just hope that our board has the vision and balls to vote no.

i blame the kangaroos for the whole sorry fiasco.

they can't survive in melbourne and should have taken the gold coast offer.

the answer to expanding the competition into new market places is to relocate struggling melbourne teams.

[HSVKing]

10 could be possible... 12 would be just too much.

With 10, the top 2 would be rewarded with a week off, which covers his point of the top 2 not being rewarded as they should be.

[Dan Warna]

i propose a final 18

this finals series will go for say 20 or 22 rounds, where you get to play every side once and some sides twice.

then the best 8 will have a finals series, with concessions for those at the top to get a second chance, and this goes for say 4 weeks.

then the last two play for the win.

how do you reckon the AFL will deal with this suggestion?

[congorozides]

i dont mind it.

gives the top 4 a clear advantage. at least it opens the debate and starts discussion because the current system is truly crap. anyone who doesnt believe in tanking (demetriou) has their head up their ass.

final 8 is ok if they reform the draft rules (ballot for instance).
the problem remains the care factor for teams ranked 16-10 who know they cant make the finals from about round 16 onwards making the last 6 rounds full of dead rubbers and/or worse, full of games that clubs are actively trying to lose.

[mad saint guy]

Not the most ridiculous suggestion, but in the end the only big thing that would change is the AFL could broadcast more finals. A team that finishes 12th will have no chance of actually making it to a prelim or probably even a semi, so football-wise it wouldn't make much difference.

[Mr Magic]

In theory, a team could win 5 games, finish 12th, play in the Finals and get a Pririty Draft Pick?

[st.byron]

i propose a final 18

this finals series will go for say 20 or 22 rounds, where you get to play every side once and some sides twice.

then the best 8 will have a finals series, with concessions for those at the top to get a second chance, and this goes for say 4 weeks.

then the last two play for the win.

how do you reckon the AFL will deal with this suggestion?

Way too lateral Dan. No chance of this ever getting up.

[congorozides]

obviously it will never ever happen but the relegation system in the EPL is exciting. given the same 3 teams finish top 3 every year - the only excitment for most people is the desperattion at the bottom of the table.

[saintsRrising]

Stupidiest idea footy I have heard in years...and there have been some rippers.

8 is too many finalists...should only be 4 to 6 at most.

[Oh When the Saints]

I'm with you saintsRrising ... would prefer 6 finalists with more games between those 6 ...


The system Choco proposes favours the top 2 teams far more than the current system ... and for him (who maximises H&A performance), that would be terrific ...

IMO you'd end up with nearly all the GF's being between the top 2 - which are not necessarily always the best two teams come September.

[saintsRrising]

I also do not agree with his anti-tanking thoughts....

1/ Any team around 12 on the ladder is not going to win a flag.....

2/ The real tanking benefits go to teams vying for bottom pick or so....


There is often a huge difference between pick 1 and pick 5....

But no so much between pick 5 and 10.



Back on having 12 teams....having way to many teams that will be knocked out easily is a farce.

I mean what is the point of lining up the 4 best teams againts the also rans.

It is a waste of time space and energy....

[Zippy]

The real tanking nefits go to teams vying for bottom pick or so....

Then the answer is simple. Have a final 15. Then carlton or richmond will get to celebrate the #1 draft pick, and everyone else can celebrate making the finals.

[vacuous space]

If the AFL is at all concerned about tanking, then why wouldn't they consider a draft lottery? Why are they needlessly clinging to the idea of priority picks? Priority picks are nothing more than a reward for losing.

I say give every team that misses the finals an equal shot at the first pick. I don't care if the team that gets the top pick happens to be a good team in a down year. Geelong had a down year and got Joel Selwood and won the premiership the next year. Any system is going to have quirks like that. Fact is, every team that misses the finals needs to get better.

I can't say I like Williams' finals format either. We don't have enough teams for a 12-team finals series. It might work in the NFL, but they have 32 teams and arguably the most even competition in the world. We already have a situation where teams 5-8 aren't considered much of a chance. The only reason to add more teams and games, I'm afraid, is greed.

[Enrico_Misso]

Forget his crap comments about hoew it would advantage Victoria with more clubs competing.

Consider a goodish interstate side , say Port Adelaide.

Under this proposal.
If they have a good season, aided by 12 games at their home ground.
They could conceivably make the top 2 (much better chance than an equivalent Victorian side with no home ground advantage).

Then they hit the finals.
Week 1 - Bye
Week 2 - Play a side no higher than 8th (11th under one scenario)
Week 3 - Home Prelim
Result = guaranteed passport to a Grand Final

No wonder Choco is so keen on this idiotic scheme.

[saintsRrising]

If the AFL is at all concerned about tanking, then why wouldn't they consider a draft lottery? .

Exactly...

tanking only comes into play at present because teams can KNOW if they drop a game or two they can secure the first or second player in the draft.....with such players in most years havinga clear edge over the remaining players.


Lots of ways to do it...and you can bias it in favour of lower picks too if you want...but the lot aspect removes the certainty...except the certainaty of winning the wooden spoon.


For example.

For the first pick.....

Give the team finishing last 8 marbles, second last 7, ninth one marbles....then do the draw...

Then repeat the exercise till the bottom eight clubs have all picked a player )once you have player you are out of the draw).....then go by finishing order for eighth to first and the reaming rounds of the draft..

[riccardo]

Agree with the concensus here.

They should reduce the Finals teams, not increase them, but more teams = more money, so that won't happen, despite the elims being virtual dead rubbers.

It is obvious no side will EVER win the flag if they are outside the Top 4, anyway.

[st.byron]

Consider a goodish interstate side , say Port Adelaide.

Under this proposal.
If they have a good season, aided by 12 games at their home ground.
They could conceivably make the top 2 (much better chance than an equivalent Victorian side with no home ground advantage).

Then they hit the finals.
Week 1 - Bye
Week 2 - Play a side no higher than 8th (11th under one scenario)
Week 3 - Home Prelim
Result = guaranteed passport to a Grand Final

No wonder Choco is so keen on this idiotic scheme.

Good point Enrico. What you've posted is a realistic assessment of what might happen. It only further cements the advantage that Port, WCE, Crows already have. Under this scheme a top two side wouldn't really face a stern finals test until the prelim.

[axcellence]

I just think this is actually giving incentive to the team finishing at the 11th & 12th rather than the 1st & 2nd.

Why would any team bother with trying to finish with 5th to 8th. It would rather finish 11th & 12th and if it wins it gets through to the final despite being absolutely trash for the previous 22 rounds. If it still fails, it would get a very high pick of no. 5 / 6 and still claim to have played the finals.

Adelaide finished in the bottom half of 8th & won before. So that's possible. What would be most galling however, is say, a Essendon / Adelaide / Collingwood / Hawthorn / Carlton getting to no. 12 and getting / winning the Grand Final. Just mockery really.