http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php
some of you saintsationalists would have seen this site.
now that we are through round seven it makes for some fun.
Ladder Calculator
Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators
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Sainter_Dad
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Or for those of you who like their stats done for them!
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
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ace
- Saintsational Legend
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[quote="Sainter_Dad"]Or for those of you who like their stats done for them!
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)[/quote]
It is based on historical data.
Early in the season it must still be using data from last year.
And out of Geelong and St Kilda guess which side has improved the most.
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)[/quote]
It is based on historical data.
Early in the season it must still be using data from last year.
And out of Geelong and St Kilda guess which side has improved the most.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
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Sainter_Dad
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I believe it goes back to March 2006 - so yes - if you include their flag in there we have come on in leaps and boundsace wrote:It is based on historical data.Sainter_Dad wrote:Or for those of you who like their stats done for them!
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)
Early in the season it must still be using data from last year.
And out of Geelong and St Kilda guess which side has improved the most.
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
you know i think footy forecaster is awesome SD 
i just wanted to post something that the peeps could play around with.
for the record my ladder looks like this:
1 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2518 1397 180.24 80
2 Geelong 22 20 2 0 2711 1595 169.97 80
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2193 1988 110.31 60
4 W Bulldogs 22 15 7 0 2260 2151 105.07 60
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 2366 1978 119.62 56
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 1990 2013 98.86 48
7 Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2166 2077 104.29 44
8 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2137 2083 102.59 44
9 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2049 2074 98.79 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2059 2157 95.46 40
11 Nth Melb 22 9 13 0 1900 2177 87.28 36
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1860 2172 85.64 36
13 West Coast 22 7 15 0 1815 2086 87.01 28
14 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1847 2344 78.80 24
15 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1526 2242 68.06 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1539 2402 64.07 12
not too dissimilar to footy forecaster!
i just wanted to post something that the peeps could play around with.
for the record my ladder looks like this:
1 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2518 1397 180.24 80
2 Geelong 22 20 2 0 2711 1595 169.97 80
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2193 1988 110.31 60
4 W Bulldogs 22 15 7 0 2260 2151 105.07 60
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 2366 1978 119.62 56
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 1990 2013 98.86 48
7 Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2166 2077 104.29 44
8 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2137 2083 102.59 44
9 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2049 2074 98.79 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2059 2157 95.46 40
11 Nth Melb 22 9 13 0 1900 2177 87.28 36
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1860 2172 85.64 36
13 West Coast 22 7 15 0 1815 2086 87.01 28
14 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1847 2344 78.80 24
15 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1526 2242 68.06 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1539 2402 64.07 12
not too dissimilar to footy forecaster!
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ace
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[quote="ace"][quote="Sainter_Dad"]Or for those of you who like their stats done for them!
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)[/quote]
It is based on historical data.
Early in the season it must still be using data from last year.
And out of Geelong and St Kilda guess which side has improved the most.[/quote]
Interesting that it shows that Geelong has a 87.5% chance of beating North Melbourne.
This despite Geelong only losing 3 of its' last 50 = 96%
It is then clearly indicating that North Melbourne is rated above average.
That was the case last year but seriously does ayone believe that this year.
Clearly a case of last years performance biasing North Melbourne's odds this year.
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundFor ... 09_Round_8
This site examines history and determines a ranking for teams based upon their ability to beat an average team at a neutral venue and calculates the odds for all games. It is currently saying that if Geelong played us in the Granfinal (its prediction) they would wiy 1 point (well .31 of a point)[/quote]
It is based on historical data.
Early in the season it must still be using data from last year.
And out of Geelong and St Kilda guess which side has improved the most.[/quote]
Interesting that it shows that Geelong has a 87.5% chance of beating North Melbourne.
This despite Geelong only losing 3 of its' last 50 = 96%
It is then clearly indicating that North Melbourne is rated above average.
That was the case last year but seriously does ayone believe that this year.
Clearly a case of last years performance biasing North Melbourne's odds this year.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
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ace
- Saintsational Legend
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[quote="Loyal"]you know i think footy forecaster is awesome SD
i just wanted to post something that the peeps could play around with.
for the record my ladder looks like this:
1 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2518 1397 180.24 80
2 Geelong 22 20 2 0 2711 1595 169.97 80
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2193 1988 110.31 60
4 W Bulldogs 22 15 7 0 2260 2151 105.07 60
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 2366 1978 119.62 56
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 1990 2013 98.86 48
7 Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2166 2077 104.29 44
8 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2137 2083 102.59 44
9 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2049 2074 98.79 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2059 2157 95.46 40
11 Nth Melb 22 9 13 0 1900 2177 87.28 36
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1860 2172 85.64 36
13 West Coast 22 7 15 0 1815 2086 87.01 28
14 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1847 2344 78.80 24
15 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1526 2242 68.06 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1539 2402 64.07 12
not too dissimilar to footy forecaster![/quote]
My ladder after the Grand Final looks like this:
1 St Kilda
2 - 16 The Rest
i just wanted to post something that the peeps could play around with.
for the record my ladder looks like this:
1 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2518 1397 180.24 80
2 Geelong 22 20 2 0 2711 1595 169.97 80
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2193 1988 110.31 60
4 W Bulldogs 22 15 7 0 2260 2151 105.07 60
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 2366 1978 119.62 56
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 1990 2013 98.86 48
7 Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2166 2077 104.29 44
8 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2137 2083 102.59 44
9 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2049 2074 98.79 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2059 2157 95.46 40
11 Nth Melb 22 9 13 0 1900 2177 87.28 36
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1860 2172 85.64 36
13 West Coast 22 7 15 0 1815 2086 87.01 28
14 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1847 2344 78.80 24
15 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1526 2242 68.06 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1539 2402 64.07 12
not too dissimilar to footy forecaster![/quote]
My ladder after the Grand Final looks like this:
1 St Kilda
2 - 16 The Rest
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
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Sainter_Dad
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Actually it shows that North Melbourne are given the chance of losing to an average side at a neutral ground by 11.75 points. The differential in the odds of winning includes all things such as it is North's home ground, they have lost 3 from 50 (which is actually 94% win rate) and other factors - possibly including the Gablett is out! It also predicts a 50 point win to Geelongace wrote: Interesting that it shows that Geelong has a 87.5% chance of beating North Melbourne.
This despite Geelong only losing 3 of its' last 50 = 96%
It is then clearly indicating that North Melbourne is rated above average.
That was the case last year but seriously does ayone believe that this year.
Clearly a case of last years performance biasing North Melbourne's odds this year.
Ace on an aside - you are having trouuoting - which makes it hard to read - to quote something - just click on the quote button, hit enter and then type your message - preview before submitting also helps
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
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Sainter_Dad
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lol - Woohoo - please Football gods - that will mean after Round 14 we will be two games clear of second place!ohwhenthesaints! wrote:Other than us of course, I wouldn't mind if North was the team to knock off Geelong in a major upset. They were the last to do so at skilled I think....
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
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Sainter_Dad
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Greg B wrote: Hi C,
It uses results from the current season, and the previous season. But the influence of older results varies, depending on how recent matches have turned out. For example, if the strong and weak teams this season were the virtual reverse of the previous season, the previous season would have very little influence. Likewise, if a lot of teams started this season in a blaze of glory, but were all hopeless in the latter stages, the early results of the current season would have their influence greatly reduced.
Regards
Greg B
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
Footy Forecaster is incredibly accurate SD and that's why i like it.
The Saints however, have shown me that they are even better than I thought they were, which was good.
Give Ladder Predictor a go though because it is interactive and emotional.
For the record I had us dropping one to Carlton and beating Geelong.
The Saints however, have shown me that they are even better than I thought they were, which was good.
Give Ladder Predictor a go though because it is interactive and emotional.
For the record I had us dropping one to Carlton and beating Geelong.
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Sainter_Dad
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So who else do you have us losing to? You say 20-2!Loyal wrote:Footy Forecaster is incredibly accurate SD and that's why i like it.
The Saints however, have shown me that they are even better than I thought they were, which was good.
Give Ladder Predictor a go though because it is interactive and emotional.
For the record I had us dropping one to Carlton and beating Geelong.
And on that - who is Geelong's other loss to?
On form - I cant do the predictor because I am now of the firm opinion that whoever we lose to will be lucky on the day. I now expect to wn - not hope to win - everytime we crash a banner!
BELIEVE OR BURN!
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
yeah i know the feeling.
it seems that the boys are indestructable at the moment.
the other game i dropped was against Sydney at the SCG.
and geelong was Sydney aswell at ANZ i think, no wait, i cant remember.
it seems that the boys are indestructable at the moment.
the other game i dropped was against Sydney at the SCG.
and geelong was Sydney aswell at ANZ i think, no wait, i cant remember.
Last edited by Loyal on Fri 15 May 2009 12:13pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sainter_Dad
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Aaaggghhhh - you are ripping my heart out - lose to Sydney at the SCG - please no - I cant stand to think of that - would prefe you said Hawks at Aurora - no I wouldn't - I want us to win everything - after all:Loyal wrote:yeah i know the feeling.
it seems that the boys are indestructable at the moment.
the other game i dropped was against Sydney at the SCG.
It is OUR ball
Give it the f@rk back!
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
it must have been carlton in round 19 that i had the cats losing to in an upset result which meant that at one stage we were actually not top, but then the cats lost to the blues and we were top again, i think.Loyal wrote:yeah i know the feeling.
it seems that the boys are indestructable at the moment.
the other game i dropped was against Sydney at the SCG.
and geelong was Sydney aswell at ANZ i think, no wait, i cant remember.
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Sainter_Dad
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If you truly believe you are forgiven then!Loyal wrote:HAHAHA i was telling my dad who is a madkeen Swans fan that we would win the flag undefeated.
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
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saint vince
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I got my ladder done now too.
Here it is. A few surprises once I had finished
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2365 1755 134.76 84
2 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2367 1618 146.29 80
3 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2154 1961 109.84 56
4 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2063 1925 107.17 56
5 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2108 1992 105.82 56
6 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2085 1992 104.67 52
7 Carlton 22 12 10 0 2164 1971 109.79 48
8 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2005 2010 99.75 48
9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1925 1998 96.35 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 1949 2027 96.15 40
11 West Coast 22 9 13 0 1931 2037 94.80 36
12 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 1869 2156 86.69 28
13 Sydney 22 6 16 0 1878 2104 89.26 24
14 Nth Melb 22 5 17 0 1802 2168 83.12 20
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1785 2269 78.67 20
16 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1787 2254 79.28 12
I had us losing to Geelong and West Coast over there. Had Geelong losing to Freo over there. I was surprised to see Sydney so low and also Melbourne don't get the priority pick.
Here it is. A few surprises once I had finished
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2365 1755 134.76 84
2 St Kilda 22 20 2 0 2367 1618 146.29 80
3 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2154 1961 109.84 56
4 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2063 1925 107.17 56
5 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2108 1992 105.82 56
6 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2085 1992 104.67 52
7 Carlton 22 12 10 0 2164 1971 109.79 48
8 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2005 2010 99.75 48
9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1925 1998 96.35 44
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 1949 2027 96.15 40
11 West Coast 22 9 13 0 1931 2037 94.80 36
12 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 1869 2156 86.69 28
13 Sydney 22 6 16 0 1878 2104 89.26 24
14 Nth Melb 22 5 17 0 1802 2168 83.12 20
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1785 2269 78.67 20
16 Richmond 22 3 19 0 1787 2254 79.28 12
I had us losing to Geelong and West Coast over there. Had Geelong losing to Freo over there. I was surprised to see Sydney so low and also Melbourne don't get the priority pick.
I don't want to be a naysayer, but I would love it for both of you to be wrong, for us never to lose a game, and for our percentage to still be over 200% at the end of the Grand Final, with an undefeated season just thrown in for the record books.
That's a pretty good scenario, don't ya think?
That's a pretty good scenario, don't ya think?
"Don't give up, never give up" - Robert Harvey.