To play finals

[nostalgicsaint]

We need to win 2 of our remaining 3 imo.

Next 2 weeks 50-50 propositions.

Saints vs Tiges
Saints vs Cats

Both being at marvel really brings us into the clash. We know we can really dominate the Tigers in patches and we've upset Geelong multiple times over the journey.

Lose one of them and we have to pinch the game against the Lions as an underdog. I reckon we're roughly a 1/3 proposition for that.

So currently we're a 58.33% chance to play finals if you accept the likelihoods I have shared above.

If we win against the tiges then we're a 66.67% chance.

If we lose then we're looking at a 16.67% chance.



All this a long winded way of sharing what we already know. This is a massive game!

[Bruce G McAbee]

Hope they're paying attention to what Collingwood are doing to Geelong right now.

[1965 Saint]

We can lose to both Richmond and Brisbane. Provided we beat Geelong and all the other games are won by who are likely to be favourites we will finish 8th. Check out the ladder predictor.

[nostalgicsaint]

We can lose to both Richmond and Brisbane. Provided we beat Geelong and all the other games are won by who are likely to be favourites we will finish 8th. Check out the ladder predictor.

That is awesome news. I'll have a play around with it later.

[Teflon]

Can’t see it
Watching Cats tonight - even if we get over Tigers ….have we looked like beating 2 on the trot really ?
Get the picks
Sanders at 8 …kinda young gun mid we need

[Vortex]

Zero chance, the que went in the rack for Ross weeks ago, he’s got his eyes on trade time and the pre season.

[Yorkeys]

Chris Scott agrees with Vortex. Can't take those opinions lightly.
Chris thinks Cats won't have to rely on umpiring errors either.
Chris seemed a bit down in his presser. Almost sorry for himself.
Vort has the confidence of youth.
With the weight of their A grade tossers opinions our club might need to consider if it's worth even turning up.

[King Max]

The maths is wrong. The ‘ indicates a loss.
RGB 1/12
RGB’ 2/12
RG’B 1/12
R’GB 1/12

Total 5/12 42%

[Vortex]

Chris Scott agrees with Vortex. Can't take those opinions lightly.
Chris thinks Cats won't have to rely on umpiring errors either.
Chris seemed a bit down in his presser. Almost sorry for himself.
Vort has the confidence of youth.
With the weight of their A grade tossers opinions our club might need to consider if it's worth even turning up.

He knows I'm never wrong, we speak weekly, only the sharpest of minds can assess these situations when dealing with the highly complex organism that is Aussie Rules football, very complex.

My sample size for our finals chances was last nights game compared to the footy we have been dishing up for the past few months, specifically our games against, WCE, North, Hawks and Carlton, very high quality performances, as Scollop would say, blind Freddy can tell.

All eyes now turn to our trade performance and list management now the "exploration" is almost complete.

But don't let that stop you enjoying some slap N tickle over the next 3 games.

[nostalgicsaint]

The maths is wrong. The ‘ indicates a loss.
RGB 1/12
RGB’ 2/12
RG’B 1/12
R’GB 1/12

Total 5/12 42%

Must admit I'm prone to stuffing up probability at times. My logic below.
-----------------

Game 1 + Game 2: (0.5) * (0.5) = 0.25
Game 1 + Game 3: (0.5) * (0.3333) ≈ 0.16665
Game 2 + Game 3: (0.5) * (0.3333) ≈ 0.16665

Total probability of winning 2 out of 3 games = 0.25 + 0.16665 + 0.16665 ≈ 0.5833 (or 58.33%)

58.33% considering all possible combinations of winning 2 out of 3 games.

[King Max]

On the vibe of the thing, if our probabilities of winning are 1/2 1/2 1/3 then it would seem unlikely that we would win 2 or more so it shouldn’t be more than 50%.

In probability terms there are three events and eight outcomes but you are treating it as two events. You have ignored the possibility of winning all three and have effectively counted that three times.

[Yorkeys]

The bookies don't seem to have odds for our Lions game yet but their probabilities for Tiges & Cats games are .546 and .423, so close to your calcs for Game 1 + Game 2?

I wonder how/if the outcome of the first effects probability of the subsequent events.

[nostalgicsaint]

On the vibe of the thing, if our probabilities of winning are 1/2 1/2 1/3 then it would seem unlikely that we would win 2 or more so it shouldn’t be more than 50%.

In probability terms there are three events and eight outcomes but you are treating it as two events. You have ignored the possibility of winning all three and have effectively counted that three times.

Very fair.