Draft prediction - player types

[Otiman]

Upfront, I have not looked into any individuals in the draft. Every year the media has a reasonable idea but the eventual order is so far different that by the time it gets to our picks it's anyones game.

In an even playing field, knowing our list, what player types do we pick up with each pick?

My best crack is:

13 - Best Midfielder
21 - Midfielder (inside/outside opposite type to #13)
40 - Key Def or Ruck prospect

Key attributes of speed and attitude.
No small forwards or half back flankers.

[st sandy]

In think you have nailed this Otiman

Midfield first.....I think a young ruckman is becoming more important & could/should be looked at with 21 or 40

Hopefully Van Es can develop as a key back & Keeler as a key forward.

[Life Long Saint]

I suspect the strategy will be take the best available player at the pick at the time.

[st sandy]

A friend attended a Saints business briefing seminar mid year where Gubby Allen spoke to his experiences as a recruiter & also drafting plans for the Saints
Most enlightening i was told
Gubby's words did reflect getting the best young talent through the doors, however there was significant emphasis of "drafting to needs"
Time will tell in a month

[SAINT-LEE]

Its not too much conjecture to say:
Best available player. But mids are thin in the 1st round.

Our #13 is actually #16 or 17 / #21 is #26, etc most likely due to academy/etc


To get best available mid we'd probably be taking guys ranked 20th and lower with our 13th (16th).
If you review top 25 there's thin mids and more wing/forward/ruck.

So my big prediction:

Pick 13<16> NOT a midfielder but a small defender/halfback flanker

Pick 21 <26> Midfielder
~~~~~~~~~~●●●~~~~~~~~~~
If Suns bizarrely dont get academy prospect Jake Rodgers he'd be Gold.
There's some dreamers who think we'd live trade pick 2024 Rd 1 & 2023 Pick 16 to GC for an academy pick 2023 #2 ( 99% likely to be Jed Walter) but Im dreamin'
~~~~~~~~~~●●●~~~~~~~~~~~
I predict:

◇◇◇◇Pick 13<16>
Riley Hardeman
Small defender/halfback/flanker
( Wilson, Windsor, Rodgers all gone)
https://central.rookieme.com/afl/player/riley-hardeman/

◇◇◇◇Pick 21<26>
Charlie Edwards
Midfielder
https://central.rookieme.com/afl/player ... e-edwards/


Our next round pick? Who knows




Lots of different people you can listen to...here's a lad I like. Dont fully agree with it all but he does do the leg work...

[TheGreatZacsby]

According to some people on Big Footy based on SOS and Misson on radio apparently we are using our picks as follow:

1- first pick (#13) to nab a classy midfielder either Darcy Wilson or Caleb Windsor. I’m tipping Darcy Wilson on the mock drafts and he’s more of a player we need, clean disposal, two way running, good in traffic and can kick goals.

2 - second pick (#21 which will be #25 or 26) on a key back Ollie Murphy. I don’t think we can grab him at all. I think like you Otiman and go for another midfielder in Charlie Edwards. Super quick, has a good aerobic base and played a lot on half back but goes into the middle. Could free up Sinclair and push Hunter Clark and Stocker to perform.

3 - some tall whether it be a defender, forward or ruck. I probably lean defender if we didn’t get one in our second pick or if we did get a defender than maybe a third tall to replace Membrey in the future?

[Otiman]

We have tried and failed miserably to recruit and develop a KPD/Full Back from youth.

As far back as I can remember:
Hugh Goddard
Oscar Clavarino
Darragh Joyce

And still TBA on
Jimmy Van Es
Oscar Adams

[akaifu]

I did a first round draft prediction and posted it on twitter if you guys want to check that out:



Regarding our 3rd pick, I'd say Arie Shoenmaker (if available) would be extremely likely, while Harvey Johnston also in the frame at our 3rd or 4th pick

[TheGreatZacsby]

We have tried and failed miserably to recruit and develop a KPD/Full Back from youth.

As far back as I can remember:
Hugh Goddard
Oscar Clavarino
Darragh Joyce

And still TBA on
Jimmy Van Es
Oscar Adams

Very true but none of these (I could be wrong on Goddard) have been round 1 draft picks. Ollie Murphy would be great if we get him. He’s pretty built and plays on gorillas. I would love to grab him and have Wilkie, Howard, Battle and Enright teach him the ways.

[saynta]

We have tried and failed miserably to recruit and develop a KPD/Full Back from youth.

As far back as I can remember:
Hugh Goddard
Oscar Clavarino
Darragh Joyce

And still TBA on
Jimmy Van Es
Oscar Adams

Oscar has already been given the chop...

[Mr Magic]

It doesn't matter who we select as some on here will bag the crap out of them and our recruiters anyway.

[SAINT-LEE]

It doesn't matter who we select as some on here will bag the crap out of them and our recruiters anyway.

Spot on...Ive pre-empted my attack with carefully crafted eloquence...

"Saints board, coaches, recruiters, management, players, members, cleaners, even reception... suck, they'll never be anything, the whole world is sh1te...I'm burning my membership ( again for the 47th season)."

[Saintmike65]

Best midfielder likely at our first pick would be Charlie Edwards..Caleb Windsor maybe an option if still on the board but he’s a winger. second pick could be a tall defender, maybe Arie Schoenmaker…third pick a young ruckman or small forward, which we suddenly have limited options with Gresham, Billings & Peris gone!

[TheGreatZacsby]

Best midfielder likely at our first pick would be Charlie Edwards..Caleb Windsor maybe an option if still on the board but he’s a winger. second pick could be a tall defender, maybe Arie Schoenmaker…third pick a young ruckman or small forward, which we suddenly have limited options with Gresham, Billings & Peris gone!

Didn’t think about a small forward. You made me come to my senses.

Should probably go for:

PICK 1 - Best Available MID (highest preference) or KPP DEF (if a good one slips through) or small FWD.

PICK 2 - Best Available MID / Small FWD

PICK 3 - Ruck or KPP DEF

[Scollop]

They'd never do this ...but

... wouldn't it be great for transparency and accountability if each club gave members and fans a look into the recruitment department and they produced a list of their draft order, immediately after the National draft is done.

[TheGreatZacsby]

They'd never do this ...but

... wouldn't it be great for transparency and accountability if each club gave members and fans a look into the recruitment department and they produced a list of their draft order, immediately after the National draft is done.

I agree!

It would be nice to see who they were targeting from the start or even years ago. It would be like Santa’s Christmas list.

[Life Long Saint]

Remember that we are drafting for future needs, not current gaps.
Yes, we need big bodied mids right now, but the draft isn't the answer to fill that need for 2024.

[Otiman]

Remember that we are drafting for future needs, not current gaps.
Yes, we need big bodied mids right now, but the draft isn't the answer to fill that need for 2024.

There is no current need - we are in a short term rebuild.

We need mids - I haven't heard anyone argue we don't. We can't get them from current lists without paying overs and compromising our future.

If that means we don't think we will be competitive until 2026 as a result, we list manage to that end.

It appears this is exactly what we're doing.

I believe you can win a premiership with a core team of 2 'special' midfielders, 4 decent midfielders and 2 defenders.

[Sanctorum]

I'm surprised to see a young ruck prospect being suggested in the forthcoming draft.

Max Heath was recruited in the mid-season draft in 2021, he's 21 today and has shown good form in the seconds. It's more than likely he will debut in 2024.

On the subject of ruckmen, it's noteworthy that Tom Campbell has not had his contract extended as yet and as he's not played a single game in the seniors in 2023, in fact only 2 in 2022, it would surprise me if he's not delisted before next Monday.

Scott Lycett, who played 14 games for Port Adelaide this year, has been linked with a move to Moorabbin and that would make far more sense.

[skeptic]

They'd never do this ...but

... wouldn't it be great for transparency and accountability if each club gave members and fans a look into the recruitment department and they produced a list of their draft order, immediately after the National draft is done.

100% agree actually.

I was thinking about this today actually.

In the 2021 draft, I was super excited when we picked up NWM and couldn’t wait to hear from our recruiters. Unfortunately I was a bit shocked and disappointed (moronically I might add) when they just spoke about the type of player NWM was.

As someone that read all the phantom drafts and player profiles… I know all that stuff.

What interested me…
As you may or may not recall, whilst he was linked to us here and there, conventional phantom draft wisdom didn’t have us taking NWM in most instances.

A few drafts had him go before our pick, most had him go to Essendon at #13 and there was an under current that the interest from Essendon was overblown and he could have gone after.

So where did we have him?

From memory, many hoped beyond hope for Rachele to slide… whilst the guys around his draft position - Gibcus, Amiss, Sun, Hobbs, Chesser etc were the common players linked to us.

I wanted to know how high NWM was on our list… would we have taken any of the 4-5 that went before him ahead of him etc.
Give me that insight

[Otiman]

Campbell adds value to the playing list, you only have to look as far as his clubman of the year award.

The older players who may not be around for our next premiership are still extremely important as they mentor, develop, and coach the younger brigade. The ones that don't add that value will be moved on. I suspect JB was one of those.

Mason Wood is another who could be on the list well past his use by date. Just look at what he's done to help Nas this year.

The soft cap pressure is also a factor. I'm sure you will see more "playing coaches" across the league.

[SAINT-LEE]

A nice small defender with speed can replace Sinclair & release him to run through the midfield.

[scuttleShake]

We'd be very lucky to land James Leake. Looks quite versatile.

[Yorkeys]

185cm, 80+ kg; 6.5 secs for 50m. Good jump. Great hand eye coordination. Long accurate kick. Coachable. Gets on well with team mates. Courageous. Will stay.

Has the multitude of statistics about AFL, largely hindsight based, ever attempted to quantify/qualify the marginal difference in AA potential between a top 10 pick and a 40+ pick. If that can't be measured why get so uptight about the subjective opinion of the mob.

Someone was convinced Billings was superior to Bontempelli: is that gross incompetence or evidence its a lottery if the consensus of talent scouts is used to rate. Good against boys = good against men in a completely different environment? Is that the professional logic?

Pelchen was trusted with list management and the man was clearly unfit for the role. But he got it. We were ruined for a long time.

How could rational "experts" have rated Jack Billings a #3 in his draft year, McCartin #1 when not exceptional in size or attributes. Jack Watts, Dees must still cringe.

For something so important the clubs seem to let some strange people take the calls (see Essendon, Bulldogs, us until a few years ago, do the recruiters outsmart themselves trying to prove they are cleverer than they actually are: where are the checks and balances.

[B.M]

Billings was rated a clear top 3 in 2013

Bont wasn’t even in some top 10s he was a bolter

Lachie Neale was rated low pick/rookie selection (I think he ended up 58)


Draft is not a lottery - but is not exact