Crab watch
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- Saintsational Legend
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Re: Crab watch
My call at the end of 2023 was to move on 2 of Dmac, Jones and Billings. Too expensive and injury prone to carry them all.
My choice of the three was to keep Billings. I pbly stand by that as he pbly offers more value than Jones… but I can’t say I’m losing sleep over it one way or another
My choice of the three was to keep Billings. I pbly stand by that as he pbly offers more value than Jones… but I can’t say I’m losing sleep over it one way or another
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Re: Crab watch
At the time not one pundit or draft board had mccartin rated ahead of petracca. For that very reason it has to be the worst 1st pick of all time.meher baba wrote: ↑Fri 05 Apr 2024 1:30pmWe'd only have won a premiership with Judd if the coach had remembered to play him in the fourth quarter of the GF.![]()
Seriously, I would say that Ball vs Judd wasn't such a bad pick, in that Ball was an A-grade player (or very close to being one) and delivered pretty well during his career for both us and the Pies, notwithstanding his injury problems which were not all foreseeable at the time of the draft (remembering that both he and Judd were injury concerns at the time). Sure Judd was a better player than Ball, but I think a reasonable benchmark for using the early picks in any draft is to choose someone who can deliver 200 quality games and some club B&Fs and perhaps an AA or two.
Ball met my benchmark, but Billings has fallen a way short, although he might still eventually get to 200 games. He looked the goods when selected, but hasn't developed into the gamebreaking attacking force that warranted his going so early in the draft. So he's a failure, but not a terrible one. Sure, Bontempelli is tons better than him, but few pundits were suggesting this at the time of the draft.
McCartin still remains the worst ever use of a #1 draft pick by the club and possibly the worst ever by any club. First of all, there is some evidence to suggest that at least part of why he was chosen was driven by marketing concerns rather than the simple aim of finding the best available player. It was hoped he could be the sort of Tony Lockett type of FF who would bring crowds to our games. But, even in his early pre-season appearances, it was pretty clear to all who could take their rose-coloured glasses off that he was not mobile enough to play FF in the modern game and was also not particularly reliable at taking set shots. He was, however, a good mark and pretty good at passing by foot, which was why he was able to reinvent himself at the Swans as a reasonable quality defender, although nothing remotely near what one would expect from a #1 draft pick. His shortcomings as a FF were visible beforee he started getting concussed all the time and should have been picked up before we considered drafting him: I really don't know why this was not the case.
There is no doubt that many people in football tend to get a bit over-excited when they see large, strong FFs (some of the commentary that goes on when Tex Walker is playing borders on the homoerotic). So I think they often get overvalued. Let's face it, there are plenty of pretty ordinary ones running around at any time: Ben Brown and Charlie Dixon immediately jump to my mind. I would once have included Jesse Hogan on my list too, but all of a sudden he's playing out of his skin (Kingsley's a bloody good coach IMO: perhaps we should have given him a crack ahead of Ratten).
Of course the worst thing about our picking McCartin was that what we really needed at the time - have needed for a decade or more - was a quality attacking mid. And there he was sitting in the draft, visible to all (including our coach Richo, who seems to have tried to persuade the club to go with Petracca instead of McCartin). And many pundits predicted big things for him: far more than was the case with the Bont.
In cricket, the adage is that, if you win the toss, you bat first nine times out of ten, and the tenth time you think about sending the opposition and then decide to bat first. In using a #1 draft pick, I think the adage should be that nine out of ten times you go for the best available mid, and the tenth time you pick Nick Riewoldt because he was a once-in-a-generation talent. McCartin was never that.
Sorry that went on so long, but analysing the performances of players is really interesting. Obviously a lot of posters are currently enjoying picking Billings's performances for the Dees to pieces. I predict that he might get a bit better over the next few weeks. He is still recovering from a prolonged period of being injured and the blow he received to his confidence when it became clear that he was no longer wanted at the Saints.
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Re: Crab watch
Vs Brisbane
17 possessions
9 kicks
8 handballs
3 tackles
0 goals
77% DE
2 score involvements
Average game
Not great but not bad
17 possessions
9 kicks
8 handballs
3 tackles
0 goals
77% DE
2 score involvements
Average game
Not great but not bad
- skeptic
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Re: Crab watch
I think that’s a generous assessment
6 touches to half time… a complete non-factor when the game was on the line and slipping away.
Melbourne started the last quarter with a push and he returned with 4 touches for the quarter.
You call it average… for me personally, that is a commercial for why he needed to be moved on
Re: Crab watch
My recollection was that McCartin was well in the frame as the Number 1 Draft Pick
And Petracca was marked down because his body size was a contributor to his performance as a mid versus that age group
Plus some personality issues with Petracca
My recall was that Bomtapelli was also marked down because body size gave him an advantage among his age group
With McCartin coming into a bottom side (so very poor) was not ideal as a KPP - then came the injuries no one could have foreseen - and which finally saw the end of his AFL career after representing Sydney in a Grand Final
So give the never ending crap a miss people
Worst number 1 Pick ever - hardly!!!
He was a key player in a Grand Final side
And in regard Number 1 Picks, they are but ONE player among 23 on the field
Think Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie and Steele among others
And Petracca was marked down because his body size was a contributor to his performance as a mid versus that age group
Plus some personality issues with Petracca
My recall was that Bomtapelli was also marked down because body size gave him an advantage among his age group
With McCartin coming into a bottom side (so very poor) was not ideal as a KPP - then came the injuries no one could have foreseen - and which finally saw the end of his AFL career after representing Sydney in a Grand Final
So give the never ending crap a miss people
Worst number 1 Pick ever - hardly!!!
He was a key player in a Grand Final side
And in regard Number 1 Picks, they are but ONE player among 23 on the field
Think Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie and Steele among others
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- Saintsational Legend
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Re: Crab watch
My recollection is that Petracca was the Larke medallist (best player in the champ) he was Eastern Rangers B&F and Runner Up in the Morrish Medal. He also finished RU in the under 18 goal kicking with 36 goals (as a mid/forward!)
His personality was a kid that was very confident in his ability- which has held him in great stead as an elite afl footballer
Petracca played a very key role in a premiership- he actually won the Norm Smith Medal!
Along with 2 best and fairest awards at Melbourne and twice runner up (to Clayton Oliver)
It is clearly the biggest recruiting fk ups in draft history
He was a consensus as number 1
His personality was a kid that was very confident in his ability- which has held him in great stead as an elite afl footballer
Petracca played a very key role in a premiership- he actually won the Norm Smith Medal!
Along with 2 best and fairest awards at Melbourne and twice runner up (to Clayton Oliver)
It is clearly the biggest recruiting fk ups in draft history
He was a consensus as number 1
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Re: Crab watch
I would say equally as bad or worse. The reason it may be worse is because Petracca was universally believed to be the standout No. 1 pick and had been the entire draft year. Entering the draft period, Franklin was considered a high pick but not universally considered the clear no. 1
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Re: Crab watch
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Definitely worst number 1 draft pick of all timeKilla wrote: ↑Fri 12 Apr 2024 9:06pm My recollection was that McCartin was well in the frame as the Number 1 Draft Pick
And Petracca was marked down because his body size was a contributor to his performance as a mid versus that age group
Plus some personality issues with Petracca
My recall was that Bomtapelli was also marked down because body size gave him an advantage among his age group
With McCartin coming into a bottom side (so very poor) was not ideal as a KPP - then came the injuries no one could have foreseen - and which finally saw the end of his AFL career after representing Sydney in a Grand Final
So give the never ending crap a miss people
Worst number 1 Pick ever - hardly!!!
He was a key player in a Grand Final side
And in regard Number 1 Picks, they are but ONE player among 23 on the field
Think Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie and Steele among others
Everyone in football knew Petracca was a better pick
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Re: Crab watch
Maybe this makes me a softcock. But I’m on record of being one of Gresham’s biggest critics on here. But if he can turn it around I’d be really pleased for him. Certainly doesn’t change my opinion of us moving him on, he clearly needed a new environment, but I take no pleasure in seeing former saints players going crap
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Re: Crab watch
My take on ex players
If they fkd off because they wanted to, I don’t want them to do well
If they didn’t want to leave, but we fkd them off, no ill will from me
If they fkd off because they wanted to, I don’t want them to do well
If they didn’t want to leave, but we fkd them off, no ill will from me
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Re: Crab watch
Gresham’s talent has never been in question.
The challenge was always more his consistently vs cost of keeping him. And that’s a balancing act because his position is a tough position.
Always turns in a number of match winning or close thereof performances a year.
Less polished than Billings but has always been better value
The challenge was always more his consistently vs cost of keeping him. And that’s a balancing act because his position is a tough position.
Always turns in a number of match winning or close thereof performances a year.
Less polished than Billings but has always been better value
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Re: Crab watch
Haven't seen anything from the Crab yet to make me feel regret we traded him, one quarter to go so maybe he can bob up and find a moment. I'd be happy for him if he does...big crowd and never a better time to impress your new fans.
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Re: Crab watch
Gresham
16 possessions
0 goals
2 tackles
1 goal assist
Not a shocking game but not that impactful
Having said that
Both JB and Gresh are holding their spot in far better teams than StK
16 possessions
0 goals
2 tackles
1 goal assist
Not a shocking game but not that impactful
Having said that
Both JB and Gresh are holding their spot in far better teams than StK
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Re: Crab watch
Pbly his best performance on the year to date IMO. I liked that a lot more than his bigger numbers against lowly opposition
Wish we’d kept him ahead of Jones
Wish we’d kept him ahead of Jones
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Re: Crab watch
Out of those 18 possessions only 1 was contested.
So that's 17 disposals where Billings received the footy without a high level of pressure. What would you expect for his disposal efficiency?
I'd expect 72% or better. That would be 13 out of 18 touches hitting the target.
Billings ended up with a DE of 61%. That's like getting only 11 effective possessions for the whole game.
Can't handle heat. There's certainly some pressure immediately after he takes possession, but they are called uncontested possessions for a reason.
If you break it down even further, he's taken 7 marks. That means when he receives the footy in general play he'll fluff it or turn it over 2 out of every 3 times.
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Re: Crab watch
He’s playing in a good side, holding his spot - must be doing something ok?
He only has to play his role as a HHF
Compare his numbers to those who play in that position at StK and see how you get on?!
He only has to play his role as a HHF
Compare his numbers to those who play in that position at StK and see how you get on?!
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Re: Crab watch
We'll see how long he holds his spotHe’s playing in a good side
The young kid Laurie who came on as sub kicked 2 goals. They have Spargo and McAdam. I think both available soon and both play the same position
As well as Jake Melsham who will be available later in the year
Put any of our smalls in that position in the Melbourne team and they'd have respectable numbers.
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Re: Crab watch
Billings has played 7 more games this year than quite few predicted on here. For a top team as well. Going quite well, seems to be settling in.
Thought he was good against Tigers, well weighted passes set up scoring chances, presented options which are being increasingly honoured by teammates.
Couldn't get on the park much last couple of years due to injury, also wasn't given much encouragement by Saints, so he wanted out.
Saints should have persevered, we need all the good kickers we can get.
My only concern is he stays fit, if he does, Melb gain, Saints pain. Again.
Thought he was good against Tigers, well weighted passes set up scoring chances, presented options which are being increasingly honoured by teammates.
Couldn't get on the park much last couple of years due to injury, also wasn't given much encouragement by Saints, so he wanted out.
Saints should have persevered, we need all the good kickers we can get.
My only concern is he stays fit, if he does, Melb gain, Saints pain. Again.
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Re: Crab watch
Billings is not the type of player you need at your club when you're rebuilding. You need senior players to absorb heat and pressure....and with at least a little bit of a physical presence
We have enough outside runners in our team. Billings is surplus
We have enough outside runners in our team. Billings is surplus