2012 Draw - Historical perspectives

[Enrico_Misso]

How do the AFL see StKilda in 2012
As a Saturday night team (10 or 11 games on Sat night - up from 9 in 2011)
Reaffirmed as a Docklands team with 2 games effectively moved from the MCG (6 in 2011, 4 in 2012) to Docklands (10 in 2011, 12 in 2012)
We are a travelling team - six trips interstate in 2010, 11 and now 2012. Higher than average interstate trips for the last 7 years.
With a couple of subtle shifts.
A shift to the twighlight zone (2 in 2011, 6 in 2012)
A shift from Fri night (6 in 2011 to 4 in 2012) to Sat night (7 in 2011, 8 or most likely 9 in 2012)


Historical perspectives

Night Games
- in 1994 we played one night game
- this grew to 8 by 99
- a massive 14 in 2000
- it then dropped before climbing back to 15, 14, 14, and a record 17 in 2010 and 2011.
- 2012 it set to break that with 17 night games scheduled and most likely a record 18th depending on the floating R23 fixture!

Twilight Zone
Just when we thought we had escaped it we find ourselves with a record 6 twilight games in 2012.
Trend since 2007 has been 2, 1, 5, 4, 2 and now 6.

Venues
Docklands - 12 games. Up from 10 last year which was our lowest at Docklands since we moved there in 2000.
- the last 6 years we have had 13, 14, 15, 14, 10 and now 12 games. The rise reflects a reversal of the 2011 shift of games to the MCG
Football Park - from 2003 to 2008 we were blessed with just 5 trips to Adelaide in 6 years. Now we are paying with the maximum of 2 trips in 2009, 10, 11 and now 2012.
Kardinia Park - hopefully our days there are over. 2004 was our last trip. No wonder Geelong win so many games down there - they never play anyone good!
MCG - We are blacklisted again! After a paltry 5 games in 3 years (2008-10) compared to 13 games in the previous 3 years, 2011 saw us hit the big time with a record SIX games at the G, but now relegated back to 4 games in 2012.

Subiaco - another win here. Between 2003 and 2008 we had 11 out of a possible 12 trips there.
- since then we have had just 5 trips in four years, with just the one in 2012.
York Park - no trips to this cesspit since 2008 - yippee !
Carrara - one game there against the GC Bastards
Sydney - back to the SCG this year after 2 years at Homebush.

Day/Night by Venue
Docklands - just two day games there in 2012, up from a record low of one day game there in 2011 (might be 3 depending on the floating R23 fixture).
- In our time at Docklands we got as high as 8 day games in 2002.
Football Park - played a rare day game there in 2011, only the second day game there since 1997 - but back to two night games in 2012.
Subiaco - 6 day games in a row now over 4 seasons
SCG/Homebush - second consecutive year with a day game (this time at the SCG) after a run of 5 consecutive night games up there.
MCG - ultimate success requires winning here so disappointing to drop back from 6 to 4 games there (3 are night games).

6 Day Breaks
In 2006 we had 11 six day breaks.
After complaints by the club the AFL assured us this would not happen again.
Sure enough it then dropped to 7,5 6, and then up to 9 in 2010 and back to 7 in 2011.
But in 2012 it is an OUTRAGEOUS 9.
- That is the highest in the competition and 5, repeat FIVE more than Collingwood!!!!
Interesting that since 1994 we have had a massive 12 six (or less) day breaks against Collingwood and Adelaide. Whilst only 4 six day breaks against Carlton and 5 against Sydney.
- That is a big imbalance.

Home/Away runs against Clubs
All of these runs are against the odds (i.e. above average if the draw was totally random or "fair")
Run continuing
Brisb - 14 away games out of last 16 seasons
Carlton - 15 home games in last 18 seasons
Collingwood - 16 away games in last 19 seasons
North - 17 home games in last 19 seasons
Richmond - 17 home games in last 19 seasons
Syd - 16 away games in last 19 seasons
West Coast - 16 away games in last 19 seasons
Bulldogs - 13 away games in last 14 seasons
GWS - never played them up there!
Runs broken
Adelaide - after 16 home games in last 18 seasons including the last 9 consecutive seasons, we finally don't have a home game against them.
Freo - after 15 away games in 16 seasons we finally avoid playing them in the west.

Over/Under played games against Clubs.
Based on a fair draw where we should play each club 1.47 (1995-2010 15 other clubs), 1.38 (2011 - 16 other clubs), 1.29 (2012 - 17 other clubs) times a season (and other ratios prior to Port, Brisb, Freo, Fitz, Bears).
In the last 19 years we should have played
- Melbourne, Hawthorn and Essendon 1.71 MORE times (27.71 v 26 actual games)
- North and the Bulldogs 1.29 TOO many times (27.71 v 29 actual games)

In the last 5 years the only significant imbalance is that we should have played
- Brisbane and Hawthorn 2.07 more times ( 7.07 v 5 actual games)

Home and Away imbalances
Since 1994 we have benefited by having played
- 6 more home games against Richmond than away games
- 5 more home games against North than away games
- 4 more home games against Adelaide and Hawthorn than away games
Conversely we have been shafted by having played
- 5 more away games against Brisbane and Collingwood than home games
- 4 more away games against Sydney and West Coast than home games

Day of Week
Thursday - no Thurs night game this year
Friday - down to four (from six) Fri night games in 2012. Long way from our record of 7 in 2007. Only 3 are in Melb (6 in 2011). BAD for TV exposure.
Saturday - 8 (maybe 9) Sat night games. Sat night at Docklands is our fortress, but only 3 (maybe 4) games there in 2012 - rest are at the G (3) or Interstate (2).
- two Sat day games is our second lowest ever, behind just 1 in 2002.
Sunday - just the 6 games (5 in 2011). A long way from our peak of 14 in 2002. Unfortunately 4 (2 in 2011) are twilight games.
- looks like we are being punished and banished to the Twilight zone horror slot.
Monday - our "traditional" Mon night game against Carlscum. 5th time in that slot, 4 years in a row, last three against Carlton.
- is this our equivalent of the ANZAC day/ Queens birthday niche slots?

Interstate Games
Ignoring that disgraceful period where we transferred 8 home games to York Park and 1 to Carrara, recent years have involved record interstate games.
In 2010 we had the full deck 6 out of 6 possible road trips.
In 2011 we got 6 out of 7, visiting the Bastard Suns but not WCE
2012 also see 6 out of a possible 8 road trips, avoiding just Brisbane and the GWS falafels.
6 trips is the most we have had (ignoring our interstate home games - that was our choosing/error) equaling 1997, 2010 and 2011
In the last 7 years we have had 39 interstate trips (excluding 1 Cararra H game and 2 York Park H games) which is 7.01 more than the theoretical average.
In the last 5 years we have had 27 interstate trips (excluding 1 Cararra H game) which is 5.81 more than the theoretical average.
In the last 3 years we have had 18 interstate trips which is 3.61 more than the theoretical average.
Our interstate trips have been above the theoretical average for seven consecutive seasons.
By comparison Collingwood through their grubby little deals with Andrew "bend over for Eddie" Dimwit have henerally had only 4 interstate trips, though they do get an outrageous 5 trips in 2012.
That represents a huge disadvantage to us.


Conclusion?
The BAD
6 out of 8 Interstate trips (above the average for the 7th year in a row) is a disgrace
6 (up from 2) Twilight games is a disgrace
9 (up from 7) six day breaks (the highest in the competition) is a disgrace
4 (down from 6) MCG games is a disgrace
The GOOD
Playing Gold Coast, Melbourne and Bulldogs twice is a benefit. Not playing Coll and Geel twice (like in 2011) is a benefit.
The first 5 rounds are as easy as it gets, so every opportunity to go 5-0 and mount a serious challenge.
Not having to travel in the last 6 rounds is a benefit.

All things considered - slightly easier draw than 2011 but offset by fixturing issues.

[plugger66]

And can you tell us what our requests were?

[stevie]

We had 6 interstate games in 09 too, becoming the first team in history to win them all

[Enrico_Misso]

And can you tell us what our requests were?

Well I very much doubt we would have asked for
- 9 six day breaks
- 6 interstate trips
- 2 less MCG games

[SaintPav]

that's pretty impressive EM.

[Enrico_Misso]

We had 6 interstate games in 09 too, becoming the first team in history to win them all

Technically you are right.
We played six games interstate and won them all.

But the Round 10 clash at Carrara against Melbourne was actually our home game that we moved for $$$$.
So I don't count that as a "real" interstate game.
It was our decision to move it.

So in my analysis I view 2009 as having 5 interstate games.
Perhaps I should call them "Away Interstate".
Similarly I don't include our 8 home games at Dork Park as Interstate games.

The aim was to analyse how many times the AFL has forced us to travel.

[saintspremiers]

We had 6 interstate games in 09 too, becoming the first team in history to win them all

Technically you are right.
We played six games interstate and won them all.

But the Round 10 clash at Carrara against Melbourne was actually our home game that we moved for $$$$.
So I don't count that as a "real" interstate game.
It was our decision to move it.

So in my analysis I view 2009 as having 5 interstate games.
Perhaps I should call them "Away Interstate".
Similarly I don't include our 8 home games at Dork Park as Interstate games.

The aim was to analyse how many times the AFL has forced us to travel.

WHy not compare it to the other Vic teams?

ie. how many teams in 2012 have to travel 6 or more times interstate?

[loris]

that's pretty impressive EM.

Ditto............... thanks for the effort to work all that out E_M

[Kilda]

An incredibly comprehensive post E_M!

We need you to be the club's advocate for (improved) AFL fixturing!

[plugger66]

We had 6 interstate games in 09 too, becoming the first team in history to win them all

Technically you are right.
We played six games interstate and won them all.

But the Round 10 clash at Carrara against Melbourne was actually our home game that we moved for $$$$.
So I don't count that as a "real" interstate game.
It was our decision to move it.

So in my analysis I view 2009 as having 5 interstate games.
Perhaps I should call them "Away Interstate".
Similarly I don't include our 8 home games at Dork Park as Interstate games.

The aim was to analyse how many times the AFL has forced us to travel.

WHy not compare it to the other Vic teams?

ie. how many teams in 2012 have to travel 6 or more times interstate?

Or we could compare how many sides have as good of a start as us. I love it how people call me negative and all people do is look for the negative in everything.

[SaintPav]

We had 6 interstate games in 09 too, becoming the first team in history to win them all

Technically you are right.
We played six games interstate and won them all.

But the Round 10 clash at Carrara against Melbourne was actually our home game that we moved for $$$$.
So I don't count that as a "real" interstate game.
It was our decision to move it.

So in my analysis I view 2009 as having 5 interstate games.
Perhaps I should call them "Away Interstate".
Similarly I don't include our 8 home games at Dork Park as Interstate games.

The aim was to analyse how many times the AFL has forced us to travel.

WHy not compare it to the other Vic teams?

ie. how many teams in 2012 have to travel 6 or more times interstate?

Or we could compare how many sides have as good of a start as us. I love it how people call me negative and all people do is look for the negative in everything.

that's just human nature I'm afraid and doubly human nature if you're a St Kilda supporter.

[Enrico_Misso]

Or we could compare how many sides have as good of a start as us. I love it how people call me negative and all people do is look for the negative in everything.

Or see who has the easiest game in round 17

The only meaningful comparison is to compare draws across the WHOLE season.
Sure, some teams will get an easy start (like us) or a hard start but that doesn't mean their total season draw is easy or hard.

[Legendary]

Great post, really good stuff ...

The six-day breaks is the one that gets me.

11 in 2006 - no wonder Thomas lost his job. Even Dave Misson would have struggled that year!

Let's hope Burge knows his stuff. We're gunna need it.

[plugger66]

Great post, really good stuff ...

The six-day breaks is the one that gets me.

11 in 2006 - no wonder Thomas lost his job. Even Dave Misson would have struggled that year!

Let's hope Burge knows his stuff. We're gunna need it.

This is a serious question. Can you give us our results last year after 6 day breaks compared to 7 or more day breaks. Without knowing I would guess it is no worse than the 7 or more day breaks. Pretty sure clubs have got that covered now.

I suppose the question I would ask is would you prefer a 6 day break and play GC, Melbourne and WB twice or a 7 day break and play the Pies, Hawks and Geelong twice. I know they dont go hand in hand but I certainly would rather play easier sides then worry about 6 day breaks.

[SaintPav]

Great post, really good stuff ...

The six-day breaks is the one that gets me.

11 in 2006 - no wonder Thomas lost his job. Even Dave Misson would have struggled that year!

Let's hope Burge knows his stuff. We're gunna need it.

Need to consider how many teams that we have 6 day breaks against also have the six day breaks. We will also be playing teams on 6 day breaks when we are coming off the longer break.

[samuraisaint]

Also remember having to play at Geelong - which is a Clayton's interstate venue - every year for a long time too, so you could add that to the list for sure.

[Enrico_Misso]

Great post, really good stuff ...

The six-day breaks is the one that gets me.

11 in 2006 - no wonder Thomas lost his job. Even Dave Misson would have struggled that year!

Let's hope Burge knows his stuff. We're gunna need it.

This is a serious question. Can you give us our results last year after 6 day breaks compared to 7 or more day breaks. Without knowing I would guess it is no worse than the 7 or more day breaks. Pretty sure clubs have got that covered now.

I suppose the question I would ask is would you prefer a 6 day break and play GC, Melbourne and WB twice or a 7 day break and play the Pies, Hawks and Geelong twice. I know they dont go hand in hand but I certainly would rather play easier sides then worry about 6 day breaks.

Obviously if your opponent also has a six day break there is no disadvantage.

I did see a piece of analysis a few years ago that did show that teams with a seven day break playing against a team with a six day break did have a statistical advantage.
Also, have read plenty of ageing players or retired ones say that as they got towards the end of their careers it took them longer for their body to recover and they found six day breaks tough.