Dummies Guide To Winning Premierships

[ace]

The year was 2012

Two players had already been taken out of the new crop of players the previous year in the under age mini draft effectively compromising every draft pick 2 places.

US
We finished in 9th place so started out with picks 10, 28, 46 and 64
But after compensation for a lot of uncontracted players movements, free agency and Adelaide surrendering picks over Kurt Tippet draft tampering these became
12, 36, 55, 75
We let Brendon Goddard go as a restricted free agent and got pick 13 as a result.
12, 13, 36, 55, 75
Jamie Cripps insistence on returning to WA forced us to trade him and pick 45 away for picks 40 and 43
12, 13, 36, 40 ,43
After compensation picks and these forced moves we had picks 12, 13, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75.

Then voluntarily:
We traded away pick 12 and we got Tom Lee 24 & 45 in return
13, 24, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75
Then we traded away pick 13, 36 & 55 and we got Tom Hickey 25 and 46 in return.
24, 25, 40, 43, 46, 75
Then we traded away pick 46 and got Trent Dennis-Lane from Sydney
24, 25, 40, 43, 75
We used these picks
24 Nathan Wright
25 Spencer White
40 Brodie Murdoch
43 Josh Saunders
75 Lewis Pierce (this was actually the 67th new player taken in the draft as passes and rookie upgrades were counted as picks).

Today for picks 12, 13, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75 (68) we have Tom Hickey, Nathan Wright and Lewis Pierce. OUCHHHHHHHHH !!!
Fortunately we picked up Dylan Roberton as a delisted free agent.

THEM
They finished much lower on the ladder than us in 15th place so started out with picks 4, 22, 40, 58.
But after compensation for a lot of uncontracted players movements, free agency and Adelaide surrendering picks over Kurt Tippet draft tampering these became
5, 27, 49, 69
Ward moved to GWS as an uncontracted player and they got pick 6 in compensation
5, 6, 27, 49, 69
Reid moved to GWS as an uncontracted player and they got pick 50 in compensation
5,6, 27,49,50, 69
They were forced to trade out Brian Lake and pick 27 and got they pick 21 and 43 in return.
5, 6, 21, 43, 49, 50, 69

Then voluntarily:
They traded away pick 43 for Koby Stevens from West Coast
5, 6, 21,49, 50, 69
They traded away pick 69 for Tom Young from Collingwood.
5, 6, 21 49, 50
They used these picks
5 Jake Stringer
6 Jackson Macrae
21 Nathan Hrovat
49 Lachie Hunter (father-son)
50 Josh Prudden
A few months ago they had Stringer, Macrae, Hunter probably among the best 10 from that draft.
They have just traded Koby Stevens to us
Hrovat to North and rookied Prudden.

When they were at the bottom they nailed their draft picks meanwhile we wasted many of ours.
Guess who won a premiership …………. their recruitment team.

[mr six o'clock]

I don't understand how you can compare the two sides at this time !

2012 we won 12 games , they won 5 .

we still had two seasons to go before we bottomed out .

If you look at this year , we won 12 they won 15 !
Not allot of difference , and they became the first side to win a flag from 7th .
This wont happen again to soon .

Still I like your research !

[Zed]

no doubt that wasn't a great draft / trade period for us.

I reckon if we can keep Ameet and the team together for another couple of years there may be a number of other teams who look back to this period and admire our work in a similar fashion when our boys lift the trophy.

[saynta]

no doubt that wasn't a great draft / trade period for us.

I reckon if we can keep Ameet and the team together for another couple of years there may be a number of other teams who look back to this period and admire our work in a similar fashion when our boys lift the trophy.

Im more than satisfied with these guys.

In 97, 2009 and 2010 we were about 4 to 6 players short of a good team of 22 afl standard players.


This year we start of with about 25 to 26.

BLOODY GOOD POSITION IYAM.

[Con Gorozidis]

I like how we are going about our list mgt nowadays.
We are focussed on getting 25 good players. We are not getting sucked in to chasing a messiah or getting ahead of ourselves when we arent really ready to win flag.
We know that if we have 25 good players we are a serious shot.
Back in 09-10 - we needed everything to go perfectly. We only really had 14-16 good players including 5 stars. We had zero margin for error. A couple of injuries to key players and we had no chance back then because we had no depth at all.
This time is different.

[saynta]

I like how we are going about our list mgt nowadays.
We are focussed on getting 25 good players. We are not getting sucked in to chasing a messiah or getting ahead of ourselves when we arent really ready to win flag.
We know that if we have 25 good players we are a serious shot.
Back in 09-10 - we needed everything to go perfectly. We only really had 14-16 good players including 5 stars. We had zero margin for error. A couple of injuries to key players and we had no chance back then because we had no depth at all.
This time is different.

The same in 97.

We lost Smith, Vidovic and Spider and we were f***ed.

[ace]

I could do a similar analysis of our recruiting in 2013 if you like but I think
This will suffice
1 Tom Boyd
2 Josh Kelly
3 Jack Billings
4 Marcus Bontempelli

You win premierships because your recruiters nail their picks better than every other team.
If your recruiters do better than most then you may end up as another failed contender.

[Enrico_Misso]

Presumably your point is that we should have taken The Bont ahead of Billings.

But I think it is too early to make that call.
The Bont has stepped up to a very high level incredibly quickly.
Billings has plenty of potential but may take more time.

In 2003/04 everyone said that Hawthorn had erred badly in taking Hodge over Judd in 2001, as Judd was absolutely starring.
But now in 2016 I think Hawthorn are pretty happy with selecting Hodge (and he's not done yet).
Bit of a Tortoise vs Hare story.

Let's give Jack Billings more time.
Hopefully he will be our Hodge.

[White Winmar]

Well, your post puts the "Pelchen is a genius" theory to rest, ace.

[SuperDuper]

The year was 2012

Two players had already been taken out of the new crop of players the previous year in the under age mini draft effectively compromising every draft pick 2 places.

US
We finished in 9th place so started out with picks 10, 28, 46 and 64
But after compensation for a lot of uncontracted players movements, free agency and Adelaide surrendering picks over Kurt Tippet draft tampering these became
12, 36, 55, 75
We let Brendon Goddard go as a restricted free agent and got pick 13 as a result.
12, 13, 36, 55, 75
Jamie Cripps insistence on returning to WA forced us to trade him and pick 45 away for picks 40 and 43
12, 13, 36, 40 ,43
After compensation picks and these forced moves we had picks 12, 13, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75.

Then voluntarily:
We traded away pick 12 and we got Tom Lee 24 & 45 in return
13, 24, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75
Then we traded away pick 13, 36 & 55 and we got Tom Hickey 25 and 46 in return.
24, 25, 40, 43, 46, 75
Then we traded away pick 46 and got Trent Dennis-Lane from Sydney
24, 25, 40, 43, 75
We used these picks
24 Nathan Wright
25 Spencer White
40 Brodie Murdoch
43 Josh Saunders
75 Lewis Pierce (this was actually the 67th new player taken in the draft as passes and rookie upgrades were counted as picks).

Today for picks 12, 13, 36, 40, 43, 55, 75 (68) we have Tom Hickey, Nathan Wright and Lewis Pierce. OUCHHHHHHHHH !!!
Fortunately we picked up Dylan Roberton as a delisted free agent.

THEM
They finished much lower on the ladder than us in 15th place so started out with picks 4, 22, 40, 58.
But after compensation for a lot of uncontracted players movements, free agency and Adelaide surrendering picks over Kurt Tippet draft tampering these became
5, 27, 49, 69
Ward moved to GWS as an uncontracted player and they got pick 6 in compensation
5, 6, 27, 49, 69
Reid moved to GWS as an uncontracted player and they got pick 50 in compensation
5,6, 27,49,50, 69
They were forced to trade out Brian Lake and pick 27 and got they pick 21 and 43 in return.
5, 6, 21, 43, 49, 50, 69

Then voluntarily:
They traded away pick 43 for Koby Stevens from West Coast
5, 6, 21,49, 50, 69
They traded away pick 69 for Tom Young from Collingwood.
5, 6, 21 49, 50
They used these picks
5 Jake Stringer
6 Jackson Macrae
21 Nathan Hrovat
49 Lachie Hunter (father-son)
50 Josh Prudden
A few months ago they had Stringer, Macrae, Hunter probably among the best 10 from that draft.
They have just traded Koby Stevens to us
Hrovat to North and rookied Prudden.

When they were at the bottom they nailed their draft picks meanwhile we wasted many of ours.
Guess who won a premiership …………. their recruitment team.

They had pick 5 and 6 and got 2 good players.
We did not have such high picks.
So I just dont undersrtand the comparison.

Who could we have got at 12 qand 13?
I mean, it was not our best trade period, in fact our only bad one since 2010 IMO.

But, there was not all that much around at those picks who have become stars. We could have got Grundy but it is debatable that he is better than Hickey and when we traded for Hickey we did not know Grundy would be available so it was fair enough...

The Tom Lee deal did not work out. That was clearly an error. But it did not cost us Stringer of McCrae..

in hindsight though, Membrey is very much in contention for best available at pick 13 from that Draft
If we could go back in time, he is very much looking like the one we should have got.
So, our error did not end up costing us


With 20-20 we shoud have kept BJ for 1 more year and taken compo in 2013

[SAAD]

Doggies won from 7th yes...the first time it's happened...also first time all teams had a bye before the finals...allowed Dogs players to get up for West Coast game...
Both teams who had week off going into Prelim also lost...the week off for all teams impacted the finals in a big way...is it a one off? Or a new trend? Time will tell.

[Bluthy]

Doggies won from 7th yes...the first time it's happened...also first time all teams had a bye before the finals...allowed Dogs players to get up for West Coast game...
Both teams who had week off going into Prelim also lost...the week off for all teams impacted the finals in a big way...is it a one off? Or a new trend? Time will tell.

I think that week off before finals is a huge change. It makes the finals much more like a mini-season rather than an extension of a brutally long season. The teams that get that extra week off, instead of being an advantage, look like being disadvantaged playing one game in a month! I reckon next year clubs in that position will have a full scale practice match with prelim spots on the line to try and mitigate that lack of competitive matches.

I think Richo is factoring this change and the doggies win in. If we can get into finals, anything could happen with the way its structured now. Hence why he wasn't very experimental with the squad last season and probably won't be next year.

[Wayne42]

A better Dummies guide to winning a flag,make the Granny, then be in front when the final siren sounds.

[White Winmar]

A better Dummies guide to winning a flag,make the Granny, then be in front when the final siren sounds.

That's so crazy, it might just work!!

[Saints43]

Well, your post puts the "Pelchen is a genius" theory to rest, ace.

It seems like we had a great array of picks to use. Wasn't that what Pelchan did?
I don't reckon he decided to recruit Tom Lee, did he?

And, here he's taken the first step in resolving our salray cap issues that you credit someone else for.

[Life Long Saint]

A better Dummies guide to winning a flag,make the Granny, then be in front when the final siren sounds.

That's so crazy, it might just work!!

Still not enough...What if the opposition has a shot to win the game after the siren. That'd be our luck!!!

[Zed]

I could do a similar analysis of our recruiting in 2013 if you like but I think
This will suffice
1 Tom Boyd
2 Josh Kelly
3 Jack Billings
4 Marcus Bontempelli

You win premierships because your recruiters nail their picks better than every other team.
If your recruiters do better than most then you may end up as another failed contender.

And yes sometimes there is a small element of luck involved - or are you saying the Dogs would have taken the Bont if they had pick 1 instead of 4 ?. In hindsight Bont clearly the best in that draft but I don't think any club including the Dogs would have called out his name at pick 1 , and in all likelihood,probably none would have called him at 2 or 3 either because those 3 were considered the standouts.

However, your point is still valid- they absolutely nailed their picks scoring best available at that pick.

[asiu]

Still not enough...What if the opposition has a shot to win the game after the siren.

falls to pieces under the pressure of being a hero
the sideways wobbling drop punt grazes the inside of the point post
after 3.35 minutes of near silence in the MCG
2 heart attacks and a baby

the Mighties Win their second.