Does Tommy get to star in Risky Business 2?

[Dr Spaceman]

I’m not saying Tommy Walsh will come in.

I’m not saying Tommy Walsh should come in.

But I have a bit of a chuckle when people refer to a possible Walsh selection as a RISK and in fact state he won’t be selected because of that RISK.

Really, anyone who’s available and not currently in the 22 is a RISK

Gamble
Questions over impact = RISK
Questions over pace = RISK

Baker
Getting older & slowing down = RISK
Not creative enough = RISK
Disposal skills not great & lack penetration = RISK

Lynch
Has only played 6 games = RISK
Questions over pace = RISK
Questions over intensity = RISK

Smith
Has only played 3 games = RISK
Questionable disposal = RISK

Cripps
Young first year player = RISK
Has only played 4 games = RISK
So far only low possessions = RISK
Has had severe injury = RISK
Limited game time since injury = RISK

Siposs
Young first year player = RISK
Has only played 5 games = RISK
So far only low possessions = RISK
Has had significant injury = RISK
Limited game time since injury = RISK

Archer
Cahill
Heyne
Simpkin
Johnson
Have played 0 – 3 games = RISK
Yet to show they’re up to it = HUGE RISK

And then we come to:

Walsh
Has played 0 games = RISK
Has only played AFL for 2 years = RISK

If everyone’s up and running Tommy probably has to wait til next year. However if we need to dip into the "Risk Bucket" then he should be considered as much as anyone else IMO.

[Old Mate]

Simple yet effective post. It certainly gets the point across. Play the big lad now that an opportunity has opened up.

[Junction Oval]

Your Post puts a good perspective on the overall situation.

I have been keen on Tommy being "tried" over the past few weeks, when we were in "no risk" games (Suns & Adelaide). With Kosi and Rooey now playing well, it may be "a risk" to have three talls on the forward line and as we know, the saints selectors are risk averse!

I wouldn't be "risking" Cripps or Sipposs either at this pointy end of the year. We need them injury free for next year.

[Sainternist]

Great post, Doc.

I'm fascinated to know what the real reason(s) is/are for Walsh not getting a game.

I guess we'll never know, unless perhaps we sign him on for another year. I have feeling Tommy won't be sticking around come end of season though

[St Loxton]

C'Mon Ross give im a go, .......you know you want too!!!! Alright i dare ya!!

[samoht]

Great post dr. Spaceman.

Walsh coming in represents a negligible risk. .. in the scheme of things.

How anyone can suggest that selecting the young 19 year olds (such as Siposs, Cripps or Ledger) is less risky and that it was sensible to select them over Walsh only needs to look at the injuries they suffered as a result of having been selected one time too many.

Maybe the selectors should think about that !

Walsh has pace (I thought we needed that) and a developed body...I don't blame him for being frustrated (as Lyon even admitted himself).

The biggest risk to our success isn't an inclusion (I actually wanted to see the kids play and the chance they had - it was worth the risk ) - the greatest risk to our success will be once again not getting the best from our entrenched usual suspects... the 4 -6 players who fail to perform at their best and leave it all up to Riewoldt and Goddard to bust their guts once more.
Players like Clarke, Gram and even Montagna (he didn't perform at his best in the finals) are our biggest risks.


Walsh should have been played once at least (that's all we're talking about here) - for goodness sake.

[plugger66]

Whoever comes in will have a role to do. It isnt just pick the next player in line. RL will have a role for that player and if it is Walsh well and good and if it isnt who cares. Walsh isnt going to stay because of playing one game in round 24. He will stay if he thinks he can make it and if the club thinks he can make it. I really couldnt give a stuff who plays as long as we win. You would think whoever comes in only comes in for a week baring injury or suspension.

[SaintPav]

Whoever comes in will have a role to do. It isnt just pick the next player in line. RL will have a role for that player and if it is Walsh well and good and if it isnt who cares. Walsh isnt going to stay because of playing one game in round 24. He will stay if he thinks he can make it and if the club thinks he can make it. I really couldnt give a stuff who plays as long as we win. You would think whoever comes in only comes in for a week baring injury or suspension.

Walsh staying would have more to do with him being permanenlty upgraded to the senior list as opposed to playing a game in 2011.

My wife coaches like Ross Lyon. She gives me a role everyday.

On Monday I had to do the cooking. Tuesday, had to do the shopping. Wed had to take the rubbish out. Friday had to take her out to dinner. Sat during the day she said she wanted a designer hand bag and on Sat night ..

[joffaboy]

Walsh is too much of a risk.

[prwilkinson]

I always think it's going to be an interesting week at the selection table but nothing ever happens.

What to do with big Gardy as well... must be tempting to play him after a great performance for Sandy again.

I'm guessing Baker will come in. Walshy... who knows.

[stinger]

I’m not saying Tommy Walsh will come in.

I’m not saying Tommy Walsh should come in.

But I have a bit of a chuckle when people refer to a possible Walsh selection as a RISK and in fact state he won’t be selected because of that RISK.

Really, anyone who’s available and not currently in the 22 is a RISK

Gamble
Questions over impact = RISK
Questions over pace = RISK

Baker
Getting older & slowing down = RISK
Not creative enough = RISK
Disposal skills not great & lack penetration = RISK

Lynch
Has only played 6 games = RISK
Questions over pace = RISK
Questions over intensity = RISK

Smith
Has only played 3 games = RISK
Questionable disposal = RISK

Cripps
Young first year player = RISK
Has only played 4 games = RISK
So far only low possessions = RISK
Has had severe injury = RISK
Limited game time since injury = RISK

Siposs
Young first year player = RISK
Has only played 5 games = RISK
So far only low possessions = RISK
Has had significant injury = RISK
Limited game time since injury = RISK

Archer
Cahill
Heyne
Simpkin
Johnson
Have played 0 – 3 games = RISK
Yet to show they’re up to it = HUGE RISK

And then we come to:

Walsh
Has played 0 games = RISK
Has only played AFL for 2 years = RISK

If everyone’s up and running Tommy probably has to wait til next year. However if we need to dip into the "Risk Bucket" then he should be considered as much as anyone else IMO.

excellent post mate......f****** excellent...

[bergholt]

Walsh has pace (I thought we needed that)...

seriously? i've never really seen him play, but at 195cm and 97kg how quick can he possibly be? on a scale of kosi - riewoldt - milne - peake, where does he sit?

[SaintPav]

Walsh has pace (I thought we needed that)...

seriously? i've never really seen him play, but at 195cm and 97kg how quick can he possibly be? on a scale of kosi - riewoldt - milne - peake, where does he sit?

Accodring to Matthew Drain: "He's very different to a lot of key forwards going around, he's very agile for his height, he was in the Stephen Hill range in agility testing."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/g ... 5788522154

Ignore the other sh!t in this article.

[dragit]

it's not looking too good on my risk calculator…

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

"The greatest risk of all is taking no risk".

Here's something else to think about.
John Butcher played a bunch of games in the SANFL earlier in the year, but they were seemingly not deemed good enough for him to be selected for Port in the AFL. He then apparently missed 6 weeks with a hammy and came back 5 weeks ago, to kick 3 goals 3, with 4 marks, in the SANFL and didn't get in the best. The next week, he kicked one goal straight, from 5 kicks and had 1 handball. Again, he didn't get in the best and was probably closer to worst. That was 4 weeks ago.
Who on here would have taken the "risk" of picking him after those two games, in a team down the bottom, or nearer the top, after missing the previous 6 and never having played AFL before? Any of you who reckon picking Tommy now is too much of one?
Yet you would have missed out on one of the best first 3 games anyone has played in recent years, taking a bunch of strong marks in the first week and then kicking 10 goals 1 in the next two, with plenty more contested marks and a contender for mark of the week.
Tommy is a few years older, used to playing in finals type pressure (in front of 80,00+ crowds in Ireland, where he played in a premiership), more physically ready and is seemingly in better form, in an apparently stronger comp. There's no reason he couldn't make a similar immediate impact (relatively speaking, taking into account our better opposition and "finals conditions"), or better, given his seemingly better lead-up form. There's no guarantee that he would, and he could also fail dismally, but he could also not.
Missing out on the potential of that would also be a "risk".

[Dr Spaceman]

Are those who see Tommy as a risk worried by his Irishness?

Are they concerned by his showing in the intra club match in 2010 when the game looked totally foreign to him (as it was)?

Are they worried he may have a Jim Stynes VFL Park moment?

Of course he may make mistakes. In the heat of the battle he may even momentarily think he's back at Croke Park. 

But most of our players make mistakes, especially our younger ones. Do we feel more comfortable because we can label those mistakes as "skill errors" or "brain fades", rather than cursing the fact we brought in a guy who's "still learning the game"?

There's many reasons why Tommy won't get a game in 2011. But we shouldn't be afraid to select him if we feel the need to try something different.

[matrix]

thats a nice risk assessment matrix



you think the club wouldnt have told him he is in their immediate (next year) future?
that he will be in the starting 22 as of preseason and onwards from round one?
will be selected as emergency of all finals just in case shite happens and will be first on call if one of the big men go down??

you really think he will leave???


cmon

really???

[bigcarl]

How about we go with an in-form forward who is kicking goals in the VFL? Or is that too risky?

[Dr Spaceman]

How about we go with an in-form forward who is kicking goals in the VFL? Or is that too risky?

Funnily enough, leaving form aside, Archer would not be seen as risky as Walsh.

Does one AFL game really make that much difference?

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

How about we go with an in-form forward who is kicking goals in the VFL?

That is crazy-talk. Please stop it. This is a serious discussion.

[Jacks Back]

Big TW is one of only a handful of players in our side that has represented their country.

[Old Mate]

Cannot see why he hasnt been picked already. Kosi and Roo have missed the odd game and he still hasnt been considered.

Hyperthetically, if he does play this year (or next) and has an immediate impact will people be saying either:

1. His performance is indicitive of the longterm apprentiship hes gone through; or
2. What a waste we should have played him earlier.

I say the latter. Dont get me wrong Ross is a masterful tacticion however his conservative approach is his weakness IMO. The Filth and Cats have excelled in bringing through their youth hence developing their players more efficiently.

[Enrico_Misso]

Perhaps Ross is keeping him as a secret weapon for the finals?

a la Rene Kink
or Dermie

or the great Michael Cooke (2 games for 2 finals incl 4 goals on debut in a semi)

The Tomminator could be the next Michael Cooke !!!!

[plugger66]

Perhaps Ross is keeping him as a secret weapon for the finals?

a la Rene Kink
or Dermie

or the great Michael Cooke (2 games for 2 finals incl 4 goals on debut in a semi)

The Tomminator could be the next Michael Cooke !!!!

Hope not. Would like more than 2 games out of him. Anyway hope we pick the best player that RL thinks will help us win this week. I think that will now be Gamble.

[Wrote for Luck]

If you do a like for like it would have to be Gamble. Only other possibilities are Smith or Lynch. Less risk will be more about slotting in to the team make up.