At least 16 wins to get top 4 this year

[noob]

I think we'll get about 11-12 wins. Have a pretty hard middle part of the year that could end up back to about even at the break.

[StGoddard18]

because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't

Crow eaters won it from 5th in 1998.

[plugger66]

because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't

Crow eaters won it from 5th in 1998.

Yep and your point is what? different 8 now.

[StGoddard18]

Point is it can be done.

[SaintPav]

Point is it can be done.

Sorry, but that is incorrect. Adelaide won it from fifth in 98 but the lost a final and went on becuase a lower ranked team lost that week. They would have been eliminated under the current system.

I can't see it happening but some team will do it one day. It's a 1 in 40 season event, if that.

[StGoddard18]

Well I'm sorry, I was 10 years old in 1998. I will not apologize for being an optimistic supporter however.

[saintspremiers]

Well I'm sorry, I was 10 years old in 1998. I will not apologize for being an optimistic supporter however.

Well you should've been older!!!

Point is if your not in the top 4 forget it. Just being a realist, got nothing to do with optimist vs pessimist.

[StGoddard18]

I'm actually glad I was only 9 in 1997 because I could ball my eyes out haha!!! I see your point, I didn't know there was a different finals system back then.

[saintsRrising]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year..

Looking at the first 3 rounds I have a feeling it will be lower.

Pies and Cats off to slow starts...and Dons have 3 unconvincing wins.

[OneEyedSainter77]

The Port loss could simply be the loss we have EVERY year to that bottom/middle of the ladder average team who is just ordinary yet for some reason gets the jump on us.

2004 - Western Bulldogs - bottom the year before, coming off our first loss of the season in round 11 - the bulldogs at the time were 15th and coming off a bad loss to Geelong.
2005 - Essendon - an average team in this year, we had belted them twice in 2004 and they beat us comfortably in an upset that actually kick started our season as we won the next seven. Still the bombers had only won four games for the year (out of 12 games, we were 6-6) and would end up finishing 13th with 8 wins.
2006 - Geelong - coming off a four match losing streak (after being top of the ladder smashing their way to a 2-0 start - boy 2006 was a crazy season for Geelong) we put in a disgusting display for the record breaking match for Robert Harvey.
2007 - The entire season just about was a huge WTF - but we didn't really have a loss to a side that finished significantly lower on the ladder than us and were lower all eyar - almost all our losses were to teams above us - EXCEPT for one - v Essendon in round 4 - they finished 12th and lost some really bad ones - like to Richmond in round 21 (althought we almost lost to them in round 22 as well) and to Carlton in round 3 after being 8 goals up at quarter time. That was the loss when 2007 started to unravel for us. We followed it up with an insipid effort against Port, bounced back for wins in round 7 against Sydney (at Docklands) and Carlton before losing four in a row to Hawthorn, Freo, North and Geelong.
2008 - West Coast in round 17 - apart from that, we were complete flat track bullies that year - smashed the good ones and lost to teams above us - lost to Geelong and the Bulldogs (twice) and, forgetting that we made top four. If a certain Riewoldt kick after the siren had've been a goal, we would've finished NINTH with a 12-10 record and RICHMOND would've finished sixth! yes, his kick was from way outside fifty so there was no chance but that was still a weird finish to the game - I honestly walked away thinking it felt like we lost that match.
2009 - North
2010 - A few, but the two to Essendon were real please explains as was the early loss to Port.
2011 - Countless - Adelaide were average, we DREW the Tigers which was as bad as losing in my book and the loss to Essendon (even though they had improved) again was bad.

So we have them every year and in three of these years we still managed to play off for a Prelim and in two, we still went on to contest the big one.

Fourteen wins to go out of 19 matches to play. It's possible.

[Devilhead]

Well I'm sorry, I was 10 years old in 1998. I will not apologize for being an optimistic supporter however.

Well you should've been older!!!

Point is if your not in the top 4 forget it. Just being a realist, got nothing to do with optimist vs pessimist.

Can you imagine if players went into the finals with that attitude

"We've got no farkin chance - we finished 5th - absolutely not a chance in hell - hey I'm only being a realist"

[Richter]

The Port loss could simply be the loss we have EVERY year to that bottom/middle of the ladder average team who is just ordinary yet for some reason gets the jump on us.

2004 - Western Bulldogs - bottom the year before, coming off our first loss of the season in round 11 - the bulldogs at the time were 15th and coming off a bad loss to Geelong.
2005 - Essendon - an average team in this year, we had belted them twice in 2004 and they beat us comfortably in an upset that actually kick started our season as we won the next seven. Still the bombers had only won four games for the year (out of 12 games, we were 6-6) and would end up finishing 13th with 8 wins.
2006 - Geelong - coming off a four match losing streak (after being top of the ladder smashing their way to a 2-0 start - boy 2006 was a crazy season for Geelong) we put in a disgusting display for the record breaking match for Robert Harvey.
2007 - The entire season just about was a huge WTF - but we didn't really have a loss to a side that finished significantly lower on the ladder than us and were lower all eyar - almost all our losses were to teams above us - EXCEPT for one - v Essendon in round 4 - they finished 12th and lost some really bad ones - like to Richmond in round 21 (althought we almost lost to them in round 22 as well) and to Carlton in round 3 after being 8 goals up at quarter time. That was the loss when 2007 started to unravel for us. We followed it up with an insipid effort against Port, bounced back for wins in round 7 against Sydney (at Docklands) and Carlton before losing four in a row to Hawthorn, Freo, North and Geelong.
2008 - West Coast in round 17 - apart from that, we were complete flat track bullies that year - smashed the good ones and lost to teams above us - lost to Geelong and the Bulldogs (twice) and, forgetting that we made top four. If a certain Riewoldt kick after the siren had've been a goal, we would've finished NINTH with a 12-10 record and RICHMOND would've finished sixth! yes, his kick was from way outside fifty so there was no chance but that was still a weird finish to the game - I honestly walked away thinking it felt like we lost that match.
2009 - North
2010 - A few, but the two to Essendon were real please explains as was the early loss to Port.
2011 - Countless - Adelaide were average, we DREW the Tigers which was as bad as losing in my book and the loss to Essendon (even though they had improved) again was bad.

So we have them every year and in three of these years we still managed to play off for a Prelim and in two, we still went on to contest the big one.

Fourteen wins to go out of 19 matches to play. It's possible.

A great post.

Also, of those 19 games we have one each vs GC and GWS, another vs Bulldogs and 2 against Melbourne. We only play each of Hawks, Pies, Cats, West Coast once.

[bergholt]

I'm actually glad I was only 9 in 1997 because I could ball my eyes out haha!!!

i was a fair bit older than that and i'm not too proud to say that i did the same.

[Scollop]

It'll take a fair effort from quality opposition for the Saints to lose a match right NOW. BJ, Roo, Kosi, Dal, Chips, Joey, and the Lendog are all in good form. We are gaining momentum and sometimes that counts for a fair bit. We obviously need some luck with no serious injuries and there's one other intangible that people are forgetting - don't discount our HUNGER!!

[Old Mate]

We've played nobody of note however we're doing what we should - Winning big against weak opposition - Port aside, however I'll mark that down to missing a pre season game with the Wanga debacle.

[Gwilt Edged]

The Port loss could simply be the loss we have EVERY year to that bottom/middle of the ladder average team who is just ordinary yet for some reason gets the jump on us.

2004 - Western Bulldogs - bottom the year before, coming off our first loss of the season in round 11 - the bulldogs at the time were 15th and coming off a bad loss to Geelong.
2005 - Essendon - an average team in this year, we had belted them twice in 2004 and they beat us comfortably in an upset that actually kick started our season as we won the next seven. Still the bombers had only won four games for the year (out of 12 games, we were 6-6) and would end up finishing 13th with 8 wins.
2006 - Geelong - coming off a four match losing streak (after being top of the ladder smashing their way to a 2-0 start - boy 2006 was a crazy season for Geelong) we put in a disgusting display for the record breaking match for Robert Harvey.
2007 - The entire season just about was a huge WTF - but we didn't really have a loss to a side that finished significantly lower on the ladder than us and were lower all eyar - almost all our losses were to teams above us - EXCEPT for one - v Essendon in round 4 - they finished 12th and lost some really bad ones - like to Richmond in round 21 (althought we almost lost to them in round 22 as well) and to Carlton in round 3 after being 8 goals up at quarter time. That was the loss when 2007 started to unravel for us. We followed it up with an insipid effort against Port, bounced back for wins in round 7 against Sydney (at Docklands) and Carlton before losing four in a row to Hawthorn, Freo, North and Geelong.
2008 - West Coast in round 17 - apart from that, we were complete flat track bullies that year - smashed the good ones and lost to teams above us - lost to Geelong and the Bulldogs (twice) and, forgetting that we made top four. If a certain Riewoldt kick after the siren had've been a goal, we would've finished NINTH with a 12-10 record and RICHMOND would've finished sixth! yes, his kick was from way outside fifty so there was no chance but that was still a weird finish to the game - I honestly walked away thinking it felt like we lost that match.
2009 - North
2010 - A few, but the two to Essendon were real please explains as was the early loss to Port.
2011 - Countless - Adelaide were average, we DREW the Tigers which was as bad as losing in my book and the loss to Essendon (even though they had improved) again was bad.

So we have them every year and in three of these years we still managed to play off for a Prelim and in two, we still went on to contest the big one.

Fourteen wins to go out of 19 matches to play. It's possible.

Essendon have made a habit of upset wins against us - that last one was Roo's 200th game

Bombers used to have a line breaking run and carry style while we were a lot heavier and slower - the tables might turn this year