A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

This unofficial St Kilda Saints fan forum is for people of all ages to chat Saints Footy and all posts must be respectful.

Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators

bergholt
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7356
Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004 9:25am

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371625Post bergholt »

saint66au wrote:Just ranked the players who had (at the start of the season) played < 50 games
That measure is biased against the current state of our list.

For us at the moment that includes Roberton, Maister, Stanley, Simpkin, Dennis-Lane, Siposs, Saad, Milera, Hickey, Newnes, Ledger, Dunell, Ross and all the guys who were on zero games at the start of the year.

This year only one of those guys moved over 50 games - Roberton. Next year, Maister and Stanley might join him, but most likely that's all. So in fact at the start of 2015 we'll still have a big bunch of players under 50 games. If you did the same measure at this time in two years then I reckon our guys would look a lot better, because they would have got to that 30+ game sweet spot - at least Newnes, Hickey, Ross, Webster, Dunell, Wright, Saunders, Lee and Murdoch should all be between 30 and 50 games.

Just because they're not stars at 10 games doesn't mean they won't improve massively in the next two years.


User avatar
Cairnsman
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7377
Joined: Thu 16 Jun 2005 10:38pm
Location: Everywhere
Has thanked: 189 times
Been thanked: 276 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371635Post Cairnsman »

plugger66 wrote:
Cairnsman wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:Lenny was pick 11
Armo was pick 9
Jobe Watson was pick 40
Dane Swan was pick 58
Simon Black was pick 31
Adam Goodes was pick 43
Jimmy Bartel was pick 8

What we don't know yet is if Armo will step another gear in the next couple of seasons and for the life of me I can't work out why players such as Newness, Saunders,Wright, Murdoch, Webster, and Ross --that have only started their careers in the past two seasons -- can't become elite or better than GOP. How can we say none of these players can't become elite.

Dont think anyone has. maybe they have and I missed it. The chances of more than one or two making it are huge though. Can you name a club that has had more than 2 picks after pick 20 become A graders in consecutive drafts.
I'd like to answer your question because it's a good one which may require some research but before I do can you provide an object measure or qualification for players that are labelled A graders. That's a serious question by the way.


saint66au
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 17003
Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 9:03pm
Contact:

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371653Post saint66au »

Con Gorozidis wrote:
saint66au wrote:Just ranked the players who had (at the start of the season) played < 50 games

In disposal order. Jack Newnes is our highest ranked player...at #116. Seb Ross next at #118

In fantasy points order. Jack Newnes is again our leader...but at #150

Yes stats can lie and no this is not definative by any means..but does kinda show our kids are OK without being the sort of elite that you build your next dynasty around. Maybe an early call and Ill happiy eat my words of need be, but I really dont think the next Roo, Dal or Lenny will come from the class of 2011/12. MIght get the next Geary, or even Armo but that wont get you back into the Top 4 unaided

Does without question indicate though that our next draft picks have to do better..much better than this IMO
Can we just clear this stat up -

Are you saying that of all the players in the AFL with under 50 games to their name - I am guessing there are around 20*18 = 360 (but many would be on zero)

Our best are over 100th ranked.

Thats pretty bad

That means (on average) each team has 5 'kids' better than our 'kids'?

Is that what we are saying here?
It's a ranking of kids who had played less than 50 Games at the start of the season...but minimum 5 games ..

And yes...every club has a kid in the top 50...except us..our best is Jack Newnes at #115


Image

THE BUBBLE HAS BURST

2011 player sponsor
User avatar
dragit
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 13047
Joined: Tue 29 Jun 2010 11:56am
Has thanked: 605 times
Been thanked: 315 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371660Post dragit »

Not sure about this metric…

We have 2 new teams… with about 30 players under 50 games going through the midfield… compared to us who would have at least 7 "mature" players in front for midfield posi's… so our young guys disposals average is certainly going to be below the new teams at the very least…

Outside of the 2 new teams, who are the players in this top 50?

I'm guessing mainly high draft picks…


User avatar
kosifantutti
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 8575
Joined: Fri 21 Jan 2005 9:06am
Location: Back in town
Has thanked: 525 times
Been thanked: 1527 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371678Post kosifantutti »

saint66au wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:
saint66au wrote:Just ranked the players who had (at the start of the season) played < 50 games

In disposal order. Jack Newnes is our highest ranked player...at #116. Seb Ross next at #118

In fantasy points order. Jack Newnes is again our leader...but at #150

Yes stats can lie and no this is not definative by any means..but does kinda show our kids are OK without being the sort of elite that you build your next dynasty around. Maybe an early call and Ill happiy eat my words of need be, but I really dont think the next Roo, Dal or Lenny will come from the class of 2011/12. MIght get the next Geary, or even Armo but that wont get you back into the Top 4 unaided

Does without question indicate though that our next draft picks have to do better..much better than this IMO
Can we just clear this stat up -

Are you saying that of all the players in the AFL with under 50 games to their name - I am guessing there are around 20*18 = 360 (but many would be on zero)

Our best are over 100th ranked.

Thats pretty bad

That means (on average) each team has 5 'kids' better than our 'kids'?

Is that what we are saying here?
It's a ranking of kids who had played less than 50 Games at the start of the season...but minimum 5 games ..

And yes...every club has a kid in the top 50...except us..our best is Jack Newnes at #115
Can you provide a link?
Looks like a highly contrived stat. And Newnes would be a long way behind Roberton who had less than 50 games at the start of the season.


Macquarie Dictionary Word of the Year for 2023 "Kosi Lives"
saint66au
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 17003
Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 9:03pm
Contact:

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371680Post saint66au »

It's at www.finalsiren.com. Go to the "rising star" link under the players menu.


Image

THE BUBBLE HAS BURST

2011 player sponsor
User avatar
skeptic
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 16621
Joined: Wed 10 Mar 2004 7:10pm
Has thanked: 3493 times
Been thanked: 2763 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371691Post skeptic »

How many games has Seb Ross played this season?


bergholt
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7356
Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004 9:25am

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371729Post bergholt »

saint66au wrote:It's at http://www.finalsiren.com. Go to the "rising star" link under the players menu.
The top player on that list is Michael Barlow. At the start of the season he'd played 47 games. I'm not sure it's fair to compare him with Nathan Wright who at the start of the season had played 0.


User avatar
Mr Magic
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12720
Joined: Fri 04 May 2007 9:38am
Has thanked: 736 times
Been thanked: 404 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371731Post Mr Magic »

bergholt wrote:
saint66au wrote:It's at http://www.finalsiren.com. Go to the "rising star" link under the players menu.
The top player on that list is Michael Barlow. At the start of the season he'd played 47 games. I'm not sure it's fair to compare him with Nathan Wright who at the start of the season had played 0.
Mark Hutchings is at #3 in front of Jaegar O'Meara.
Isn't this the same Mark Hutchngs who was on our rookie list and discarded?

Looking at the list it would seem to me that the rankings are 'skewed' and another reason to remember that statistics can be made to give you any result you are looking for.

Surely to get a better/fairer comparison one should look at lists showing results after
10 games
20 games
30 games


maverick
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5011
Joined: Sun 14 Mar 2004 10:42am
Location: Bayside
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371733Post maverick »

The list has little credence for mine.
Players like Ed Curnow, Matt Jones, Dean Terlich on the list, but players like Wingard and Cameron not.
Which would you take?


Kickit
Club Player
Posts: 630
Joined: Wed 12 Dec 2012 8:52pm

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371748Post Kickit »

In 2002 we played promising young player Xavier Clarke in as many games as we could get him in. I'm not sure it was the best method. He got more disposals in his second year than he did in any other year in his career.


Teflon
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 23139
Joined: Sat 13 Mar 2004 11:44pm
Has thanked: 728 times
Been thanked: 1762 times

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371883Post Teflon »

Don't like the list.
Haven't seen it min you, but I don't like it
Why?
It's not giving me the future security I crave right now


“Yeah….nah””
plugger66
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 50626
Joined: Mon 26 Feb 2007 8:15pm
Location: oakleigh

Re: A stat showing our rebuild has a long way to go..

Post: # 1371884Post plugger66 »

Teflon wrote:Don't like the list.
Haven't seen it min you, but I don't like it
Why?
It's not giving me the future security I crave right now

Look at it upside down.


Post Reply