Comparing the 2009 list to 2014 and 2016

[bergholt]

2009 was our best year in the AFL, only a couple of kicks from being our best year ever, so it's worth having a glance at the list that year and why it put us in such a good position.

Basically we had not too many old blokes, a very strong core and a strong bunch of players coming through. Have a look and then compare it to 2014.


2009

Veterans (3): Hudghton, King, Gardiner.

Experienced core (9): Hayes, Milne, Riewoldt, Baker, Dal Santo, Blake, Ball, Koschitzke, Schneider.

Next bunch (9): Goddard, X Clarke, Maguire, Montagna, S Fisher, Gram, Ray, Dempster, L Fisher.

Developing (6): R Clarke, Gilbert, McQualter, Begley, Gwilt, Jones.

Rookies (21): Armitage, Dawson (r), Eddy, Geary, Allen, Howard (r), McEvoy, Heyne, Stanley, Lynch, Steven, Connors, A Smith, Cahill, Miles (r), Haretuku (r), Simpkin (r), McGrath (r), Gaertner (r), Tungatalum (r), McGarry (r).


So that's 18 guys in a range from about 50 games and 23 years old (L Fisher and Ray), up to almost 200 games and 29 years old (Lenny). And obviously some real A-grade quality in those groups - Riewoldt, Milne, Hayes, Dal, Bally, BJ, Joey, Chips, etc. Many of these guys will go down as club greats.

Then mixed in with that we got excellent contributions from the veterans, and some players coming through from those bottom two groups: Mini and CJ played 24, Zac 23, Gilbo 22, Raph 16, Jimmy and Gears 15. This all added up to an impossibly good season. So let's compare it to 2014 to see how far away we are.


2014

(This assumes no list changes, which is obviously not accurate, but still interesting for a glance at it.)

Veterans (11): Hayes, Milne, Dal Santo, Riewoldt, Blake, Montagna, Koschitzke, Schneider, Fisher, Dempster, Jones.

Experienced core (3): Ray, Gilbert, Gwilt.

Next bunch (6): Geary, Armitage, McEvoy, Steven, Roberton, Maister.

Developing (8): Stanley, Saad, Dennis-Lane, Simpkin, Siposs, Milera, Newnes, Hickey.

Rookies (17): Ross, Webster, Saunders, Dunell, Lee, Wright, Murdoch, Ledger, Curren (r), Minchington (r), Ferguson (r), Markworth, White, Lever, Shenton (r), Staley (r), Pierce.


Well, the reason we're losing and will continue to lose for a few years is pretty obvious. Eleven veterans! And then the "experienced core" group is almost empty and is light years from being comparable in quality to that group in 2009. The "next bunch" is only slightly more numerous and has a bit more quality, but the jury's still out on many of these guys. In a couple more years the experienced core will be something like: Ray, Gilbert, Gwilt, Geary, Armitage, McEvoy, Steven, Roberton, Maister. There's nine of them but that's the only way they're comparable to the experienced core from 2009. That group isn't going to win us flags.

And then even the group of developing players here has some massive question marks over them. Sure, that's partly why they're still developing, but we need at least a few of them to have breakout seasons and establish themselves as senior players, like Gilbo, Mini and CJ did in 2009. The good part is that "developing" by this definition means about 20-50 games, so it only takes a good run in the seniors for a promising kid to join this group or even leapfrog them.

That's definitely what we need, because our next flag is at the absolute earliest going to come from the "rookies" group here. Way too soon to tell if any of these are going to be players but it makes sense that Watters is pumping games into them (except Ledger). The good ones here need to get up to 30-40 games as soon as possible so they can really build a base towards being A-grade. The s*** ones need to be found out and dumped to make room for others.

It also explains the re-signing of Ray and Maister (not so sure about Milera). We just don't have enough players in those groups to let any go at this point.


How long?

At a minimum it's going to take all of 2014 and 2015 to rebuild our list. We'll finish bottom three this year, bottom two next year, probably bottom two the year after as well. And then we might look something like this:

2016

Veterans (7+): Fisher, Montagna, Dempster, Dal Santo, Schneider, Maister, Ray, maybe a free agent.

Experienced core (7+): Gwilt, Gilbert, Armitage, Geary, McEvoy, Steven, Roberton, maybe a free agent or trade.

Next bunch (13+): Stanley, Simpkin, Milera, Siposs, Newnes, Hickey, Ross, Webster, Dunell, Saunders, Lee, Wright, Murdoch, maybe a trade or two.

Developing (4+): Ferguson, Markworth, Pierce, White, draft picks 2013-2014.

Rookies (?): other draft picks 2013-2015.


Pretty obviously that list won't win a flag in 2016 - unless we pick up Franklin, Fyfe, Wingard and O'Meara - but if those in the "next bunch" develop well then we could easily make the finals. And we have to remember that there should be some pretty solid draft picks in there given that we'll have three top five picks between now and then. There's 10 or 15 more spots on that list which I haven't written down.

It's not all doom and gloom but it is patience for the next few years.

[plugger66]

I reckon you are being very generous to the likes of Dempster, Schneider, Fisher, Maister and Ray to suggest and of them will be still at the club in 2016. I see us having only Dal and Joey and aint sold on Dal staying for next season if the right deal comes to both parties. I think our list will be in a great position in 2016 to be on the rise. You are right though about the next 2 years. I cant see how we can be anything but bottom 3 especially in 2015.

[gringo]

I actually think we could find our selves next year winning a couple of more games as we get back a lot of guys like Fisher and Gilbert who will sure up defence and assuming we grab an experienced tall defender. We probably won't have an absolute bottom out because we should have a bit of an over lap.

we need to be realistic about the draft too, a top 10 pick doesn't guarantee a great player look at the 2007 draft top 20 only a handful are a graders we need to look everywhere for talent. (from Wikipedia)

Round Pick Player Recruited from Club
1 1 Bryce Gibbs Glenelg Football Club Carlton
1 2 Scott Gumbleton Peel Thunder Essendon
1 3 Lachlan Hansen Gippsland Power Kangaroos
1 4 Matthew Leuenberger East Perth Football Club Brisbane Lions
1 5 Travis Boak Geelong Falcons Port Adelaide
1 6 Mitchell Thorp Tassie Mariners Hawthorn
1 7 Joel Selwood Bendigo Pioneers Geelong
1 8 Ben Reid Murray Bushrangers Collingwood
1 9 David Armitage Morningside Football Club St Kilda
1 10 Nathan Brown North Ballarat Rebels Collingwood
1 11 Andrejs Everitt Dandenong Stingrays Western Bulldogs
1 12 James Frawley North Ballarat Rebels Melbourne
1 13 Jack Riewoldt Tassie Mariners Richmond
1 14 James Sellar Glenelg Football Club Adelaide
1 15 Daniel O'Keefe Geelong Falcons Sydney
1 16 Mitchell Brown North Ballarat Rebels West Coast
Priority 17 Shaun Hampson Mount Gravatt Football Club Carlton
Priority 18 Leroy Jetta South Fremantle Football Club Essendon
2 19 Shaun Grigg North Ballarat Rebels Carlton
2 20 Tom Hislop Tassie Mariners Essendon

[bergholt]

I reckon you are being very generous to the likes of Dempster, Schneider, Fisher, Maister and Ray to suggest and of them will be still at the club in 2016. I see us having only Dal and Joey and aint sold on Dal staying for next season if the right deal comes to both parties.

You might be right. The signings of Maister and Ray through to the end of 2015 suggest to me that we're going to go out of our way to keep older players even if they're only fringe - everyone in the industry is learning from the Melbourne example. There's obviously motivation and fitness questions with all of those guys which I can't predict, but if they're getting out on the park enough, playing OK footy and want to keep earning good money then I reckon there's a good chance we'll keep them around.

[bergholt]

we need to be realistic about the draft too, a top 10 pick doesn't guarantee a great player look at the 2007 draft top 20 only a handful are a graders we need to look everywhere for talent.

A few mediocre players there, for sure. But Boak is now A-grade, Selwood has been for years, Frawley has been AA, Riewoldt has won Colemans, Reid, Brown and Everitt are premiership players (probably?), Gibbs, Armo, Grigg and Leuenberger are all handy. Not too many outright misses - Thorp, Hislop and O'Keefe is only three out of twenty.

[plugger66]

I actually think we could find our selves next year winning a couple of more games as we get back a lot of guys like Fisher and Gilbert who will sure up defence and assuming we grab an experienced tall defender. We probably won't have an absolute bottom out because we should have a bit of an over lap.

we need to be realistic about the draft too, a top 10 pick doesn't guarantee a great player look at the 2007 draft top 20 only a handful are a graders we need to look everywhere for talent. (from Wikipedia)

Round Pick Player Recruited from Club
1 1 Bryce Gibbs Glenelg Football Club Carlton
1 2 Scott Gumbleton Peel Thunder Essendon
1 3 Lachlan Hansen Gippsland Power Kangaroos
1 4 Matthew Leuenberger East Perth Football Club Brisbane Lions
1 5 Travis Boak Geelong Falcons Port Adelaide
1 6 Mitchell Thorp Tassie Mariners Hawthorn
1 7 Joel Selwood Bendigo Pioneers Geelong
1 8 Ben Reid Murray Bushrangers Collingwood
1 9 David Armitage Morningside Football Club St Kilda
1 10 Nathan Brown North Ballarat Rebels Collingwood
1 11 Andrejs Everitt Dandenong Stingrays Western Bulldogs
1 12 James Frawley North Ballarat Rebels Melbourne
1 13 Jack Riewoldt Tassie Mariners Richmond
1 14 James Sellar Glenelg Football Club Adelaide
1 15 Daniel O'Keefe Geelong Falcons Sydney
1 16 Mitchell Brown North Ballarat Rebels West Coast
Priority 17 Shaun Hampson Mount Gravatt Football Club Carlton
Priority 18 Leroy Jetta South Fremantle Football Club Essendon
2 19 Shaun Grigg North Ballarat Rebels Carlton
2 20 Tom Hislop Tassie Mariners Essendon

Think that draft looks pretty good to me. matter of fsct very good.

[stevie]

Squibbs will prolly end up playing 200 for the Scum but most have been run of the mill. He has and never will win a game off his own boot or take one by the scruff of the neck. A non entity in opposition planning I bet. Not even rated by his own fans.

[saintspremiers]

Let's hope we play finals by 2018. That's about the best we can hope for. As for flags, that's miles away. Dream of finals first guys.

[Con Gorozidis]

I think

2009 - 9 experienced core

versus

2013 - 3 experienced core says it all

I would also argue Goddard, Gram, Joey, Chips and Dempster were 'experienced core' in 2009

So really it was 14 experienced core (2009) versus 3 experienced core (2013)

Thats an absolute smashing right there.

[Kernal75]

Everyone speaks / dreams of getting an experienced tall defender? Realistically who are the options that we can get? It's fancifuil IMO to think we'll prise one from another club as was evidenced last year with the Brown fiasco. Clubs don't let them go for a very good reason - they don't grow on trees. I honestly think we should take a long term view of our situation and stop hoping for a quick turnaround. We want sustained success again not a flash in the pan finals appearance. The only way to do that IMO is to go to the draft and develop our own.

[Con Gorozidis]

Everyone speaks / dreams of getting an experienced tall defender? Realistically who are the options that we can get? It's fancifuil IMO to think we'll prise one from another club as was evidenced last year with the Brown fiasco. Clubs don't let them go for a very good reason - they don't grow on trees. I honestly think we should take a long term view of our situation and stop hoping for a quick turnaround. We want sustained success again not a flash in the pan finals appearance. The only way to do that IMO is to go to the draft and develop our own.

+1 - its all well and good to say what we want one.

But when you take the next step and ask who and how? It becomes a lot more difficult....

[Kickit]

It's all very subjective though.
A developing Roberton is way better than a developing or developed R Clarke.
All of our current developing players are better than a developing Begley ( why is he even in that category ).
To all intents and purposes, Geary, Armitage, McEvoy and Steven are experienced core NOW.
Most of the "Next Bunch" 2009 disappeared.
The developing players didn't develop.

Mature players, Milera, Saad, TDL, Hickey, Lee, Dunnel will not take as long to develop as those taken as an 18 year old. While WAFL is not AFL its still experience. Have a look at Tom Lee's recent games and he stacks up pretty well with a 2009 Rookie ( Lynch ) in 2013.

I think if you did the same exercise for 2005 you'd get a different picture again.

I'm not saying the analysis is wrong, but I don't agree that an age/experience based analysis will always paint the right picture.

IMO 2009 we were good because we were doing forward pressure before anyone else was.

[QuestionOfAccuracy]

bergholt I'm not sure how you distinguish between 'Developing' and 'Rookies'. In the 2014 "list" you have Rhys marked down under 'Developing' yet I'd say the likes of Webster, Ross, Saunders and Wright have all shown more development this year than Rhys.

[Con Gorozidis]

It's all very subjective though.
A developing Roberton is way better than a developing or developed R Clarke.
All of our current developing players are better than a developing Begley ( why is he even in that category ).
To all intents and purposes, Geary, Armitage, McEvoy and Steven are experienced core NOW.
Most of the "Next Bunch" 2009 disappeared.
The developing players didn't develop.

Mature players, Milera, Saad, TDL, Hickey, Lee, Dunnel will not take as long to develop as those taken as an 18 year old. While WAFL is not AFL its still experience. Have a look at Tom Lee's recent games and he stacks up pretty well with a 2009 Rookie ( Lynch ) in 2013.

I think if you did the same exercise for 2005 you'd get a different picture again.

I'm not saying the analysis is wrong, but I don't agree that an age/experience based analysis will always paint the right picture.

IMO 2009 we were good because we were doing forward pressure before anyone else was.

I really dont think it is subjective at all.

in 2009 we had 14 good players at the peak of their power.
now we have probably 1 or 2 good players at the peak of their powers (arguably we have none in that category given jack is probably our best player and is still improving)

a team with 14 good players at their peak will demolish a team with 1 or 2.

a team with 14 good players at their peak will finish top 4.

slice it and dice it anyway you like but it aint rocket science.

if we had a shite side with no good players and said ok guys go and do forward pressure! theyd still be shite.

[bergholt]

bergholt I'm not sure how you distinguish between 'Developing' and 'Rookies'. In the 2014 "list" you have Rhys marked down under 'Developing' yet I'd say the likes of Webster, Ross, Saunders and Wright have all shown more development this year than Rhys.

Fair question. Basically "Veterans" are over 30 or over 200 games. "Experienced core" are down to about 100 games. "Next bunch" are between 50 and 100 games or else older than 25, "Developing" are about 20 to 50 games, "Rookies" are the rest.

Stanley is in the "Developing" list because he's only played 39 games. He's not as experienced as Geary, Armo, McEvoy etc; but at the same time he's not a rookie. The other guys you mention have played less than 10 games. They've shown flashes but it's way too soon to have any real idea of if they're going to be any good. So they stay in the Rookie list a bit longer.

[plugger66]

It's all very subjective though.
A developing Roberton is way better than a developing or developed R Clarke.
All of our current developing players are better than a developing Begley ( why is he even in that category ).
To all intents and purposes, Geary, Armitage, McEvoy and Steven are experienced core NOW.
Most of the "Next Bunch" 2009 disappeared.
The developing players didn't develop.

Mature players, Milera, Saad, TDL, Hickey, Lee, Dunnel will not take as long to develop as those taken as an 18 year old. While WAFL is not AFL its still experience. Have a look at Tom Lee's recent games and he stacks up pretty well with a 2009 Rookie ( Lynch ) in 2013.

I think if you did the same exercise for 2005 you'd get a different picture again.

I'm not saying the analysis is wrong, but I don't agree that an age/experience based analysis will always paint the right picture.

IMO 2009 we were good because we were doing forward pressure before anyone else was.

If you arent at our club now you arent as good as players att our club now. begley ended up being an average player/ I would suggest a few in our current developing list will end up average players at best. I reckon he isnt far behind many of them at all. People need to realise that at least 50% of those developing and rookie players wont be at our club in 3 years because they wont be good enough.

[bergholt]

All of our current developing players are better than a developing Begley ( why is he even in that category ).

Really? Did we know that at the start of 2009 when we'd just signed him? The guy was 22 and had played 29 games, it was reasonable to expect that he would develop further otherwise we wouldn't have picked him up in the first place.

To all intents and purposes, Geary, Armitage, McEvoy and Steven are experienced core NOW.

Nope, I disagree. They've played less than 100 games, they're nowhere near as experienced or consistent as any of the "Experienced core" I've given there from 2009. In another couple of years they'll definitely fall into that category and will probably have almost levelled out as players, but right now I reckon they've still got improvement in them.

Most of the "Next Bunch" 2009 disappeared.
The developing players didn't develop.

Yep, for various reasons. This is why we're in the situation we're currently in. If the same thing happens to us from where we are now then we won't be in the finals for ten years.

Mature players, Milera, Saad, TDL, Hickey, Lee, Dunnel will not take as long to develop as those taken as an 18 year old. While WAFL is not AFL its still experience. Have a look at Tom Lee's recent games and he stacks up pretty well with a 2009 Rookie ( Lynch ) in 2013.

Completely agree, so we can expect a degree of "fast-forward" from these guys, which is why I've got them (except TDL) moving up to the next bunch by 2016.

I think if you did the same exercise for 2005 you'd get a different picture again.

I'd love to but I haven't got a list for 2005, unfortunately.

I'm not saying the analysis is wrong, but I don't agree that an age/experience based analysis will always paint the right picture.

IMO 2009 we were good because we were doing forward pressure before anyone else was.

Pure demographics can only ever be part of the story, but have another look at our list as of 2009. We had a good coach with a good plan, but also we had excellent personnel to execute it. Hayes, Milne, Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna and S Fisher in their prime is a pretty great start, and the supporting cast is very solid. A few players came good, Dawson was the missing piece and as a result it all came together. The tactics were good too but the players won the games.

[Kickit]

Your wish is my command, from the bowels of the internet complete with funny photo's ( talking to you milney ).

http://westofmoorabbin.com/players2005.html

[Kickit]

In 2009 Luke Ball had between 9 and 26 disposals per game and 3 to 15 contested possessions.
Lenny had between 13 and 37 disposals per game 4 to 18 contested.

In 2103 David Armitage had between 11 and 30 disposals per game , 6 to 15 contested.
Jack Steven had between 17 and 39 disposals per game with 6 to 19 contested.

Lenny is still king, he had a massive run of games where he got more than 30 touches, but I still consider that the other two have Luke Ball covered for consistency.
Steven may still have an upside, I'm not sure we'll get a huge amount more from Armitage.

Experience in the VFL is not the same as AFL experience ,but its still experience.

[bergholt]

Your wish is my command, from the bowels of the internet complete with funny photo's ( talking to you milney ).

http://westofmoorabbin.com/players2005.html

2005

Veterans (3): Harvey, Peckett, Thompson

Experienced core (7): Jones, Gehrig, Hamill, Hudghton, Hayes, Voss, Powell

Next bunch (12): Baker, Guerra, Fiora, Riewoldt, Milne, Penny, Blake, Koschitzke, X Clarke, Schwarze, Dal Santo, Maguire

Developing (5): Goddard, Ball, McGough, Montagna, Stone

Rookies (13): Ackland, Murray, S Fisher, Ferguson, L Fisher, Brooks, Gram, Mullins (r), R Clarke, McQualter, Gwilt, Pfitzner (r), McDonnell (r)


Looks like a very similar picture to 2009 really! 19 in the two key groups, the "Next bunch" and "Experienced core". Only 5 in that inconsistent "Developing" group and only 3 in the fragile "Veterans" group.

And once again, completely different to the current "donut" list, with very few players in the key middle groups and lots at either end.

[battye]

Your wish is my command, from the bowels of the internet complete with funny photo's ( talking to you milney ).

http://westofmoorabbin.com/players2005.html

2005

Veterans (3): Harvey, Peckett, Thompson

Experienced core (7): Jones, Gehrig, Hamill, Hudghton, Hayes, Voss, Powell

Next bunch (12): Baker, Guerra, Fiora, Riewoldt, Milne, Penny, Blake, Koschitzke, X Clarke, Schwarze, Dal Santo, Maguire

Developing (5): Goddard, Ball, McGough, Montagna, Stone

Rookies (13): Ackland, Murray, S Fisher, Ferguson, L Fisher, Brooks, Gram, Mullins (r), R Clarke, McQualter, Gwilt, Pfitzner (r), McDonnell (r)


Looks like a very similar picture to 2009 really! 19 in the two key groups, the "Next bunch" and "Experienced core". Only 5 in that inconsistent "Developing" group and only 3 in the fragile "Veterans" group.

And once again, completely different to the current "donut" list, with very few players in the key middle groups and lots at either end.

And genuine stars in every single category (Harvey, Hayes, Riewoldt, Milne, Kosi, Dal Santo, Goddard, Fisher). Now the only stars we have are in the Veterans category.

We're a good few years away. I think at least another 3 years before we'll be in contention for finals. Whether we can become a premiership contender after that depends solely on how well we draft in the next few seasons. If we can get a few out and out guns, that would definitely help because I believe there is nobody on our list currently capable of winning a Brownlow or a Coleman.

[bergholt]

And genuine stars in every single category (Harvey, Hayes, Riewoldt, Milne, Kosi, Dal Santo, Goddard, Fisher). Now the only stars we have are in the Veterans category.

Isn't that hindsight? Fisher wasn't a star at the start of 05. He'd only played a few games in 04 when Penny and Hudghton were injured. And Goddard was barely a star yet either, coming off two finals where he was basically anonymous.

We might have stars in the Rookie or Developing categories at the moment, we have no real way of knowing.

[battye]

I'll give you Fisher, but everyone knew Goddard would be a star. The frustration was that he didn't hit the ground running.

[ShanghaiSaint]

I'll give you Fisher, but everyone knew Goddard would be a star. The frustration was that he didn't hit the ground running.

not some of our supporters... he used cop a little flak.(early days)