Bottoming out well

[borderbarry]

Beside GWS's 27 first round draft picks, they also have all the 17 year olds they took pre draft, including Jeremy Cameron and others from their winning team yesterday.. They still have 46 players on their list, which will have to be trimmed to 40 eventually. A lot of the kids taken with first round picks will be getting disgruntled because of lack of matches. We should target some of these players.

[FQF]

Absolutely, I see the expansion clubs as absolute gold mines, like never before.

[wally]

It's been mentioned here GWS might not be able to keep all in salary cap I think the other point is opportunity.
They'll be some good players who cant get a regular game and as most are recruited from somewhere besides nsw
we may be able to top up from there as well.

[Old Mate]

GWS and GC will keep the most talented guys on their list and move on the ones unable to get a game.....for more early draft picks which will spread their age demographic and prolong their dominance.

[Stephen Theodore]

I'm not too sure if we are rebuilding at the right time (not that we can choose) and hard to see us challenging around 2020. By that stage all those talented guys GWS and GC picked up will be around the 25-28 mark. They'll be at their peak around then. I see the expansion clubs coming back to the pack a few years after. 2016-2022 = expansion club flags IMO. Theres a good chance they have 3-4 each.

At presently it does look like these clubs will dominate for some years, but I can remember when Essendon won the flag in 2000, there was a lot of talk amongst the "experts" in the media that they could win 2,3,4, flags in succession they were so good, possibly one of the best ever assembled teams. Well, history says, they won one flag with that dominant group.

So, don't necessarily presume GWS & G.C will be the sole winners of 6-7 G.Fs in succession, because history will tell us that anything can and probably will happen, injuries, dramas, disgruntled players not earning what they believe they're worth, etc,etc.

[Old Mate]

GWS particularly and also GC have far more talented lists then any club we've ever seen. It's quite unique to see so many talented players inter same age bracket in the one team. Totally different to Ess of 00, the Lions 01-04 and Gee of recent. GWS and GC will be the most dominant teams we've ever seen IMO.

[BigMart]

Teflon.... You missed the point

Yes, we WILL bottom out, because we have lost all our stars either through retirement and/or other clubs

So we will be getting access to high pick regardless...

It's when we do get back into the finals... Which will determine our success...

Do we continue to develop and play some drafted talent... Or do we introduce mature GO players to fill the holes?

[Con Gorozidis]

I think given where GC and GWS are at - we need to time our run to be up the top from 2019 onwards.
No point rushing and recruiting middle of the road blokes and get up to the final 8 in 2 or 3 years time.

We will end up like the Blues.

Id rather we suck this year and next and get some serious talent in the door.

[Teflon]

Marto I haven't missed the point but I think you might now have the point if the thread

No matter - you are talking about managing our resurgence through appropriate development all true -I am merely saying we must start this process drinking from the well deep and long and we need not just top picks but somewhere in there we need No1. Picks. We also can't stuff up free agency which is part of our build and have to time it with the right player.

Of course the unknown here is luck. We hit pay dirt with Riewoldt and co coming through back in the day..... let's pray we do again what I don't want us to do is a Carlton it Richmobd or North and just hang in limbo for 8 years. We can't afford to do that and not be a genuine threat.

[Con Gorozidis]

Marto I haven't missed the point but I think you might now have the point if the thread

No matter - you are talking about managing our resurgence through appropriate development all true -I am merely saying we must start this process drinking from the well deep and long and we need not just top picks but somewhere in there we need No1. Picks. We also can't stuff up free agency which is part of our build and have to time it with the right player.

Of course the unknown here is luck. We hit pay dirt with Riewoldt and co coming through back in the day..... let's pray we do again what I don't want us to do is a Carlton it Richmobd or North and just hang in limbo for 8 years. We can't afford to do that and not be a genuine threat.

Agreed - Blues, Tigers, North and Bombers are stuck in no mans land and have been suspended there for a while.
We don't want to rise too early and get 'stuck in the middle with you'.

[citywest]

We need to stay in the bottom 4 for at least another 3 years. The best way to achieve this is to keep trading out players for draft picks. As I have stated previously, at the end of this season we should trade Gilbert and Armitage in order to improve our draft picks. Over the next 3 years I want the following....2014 picks 1 and 19, 2015 picks 2 and 20, 2016 picks 3 and 21 and traded players who are over 27 for even more picks. 2017 should be the year when we really start our climb up the ladder with a flag by 2022.

[Con Gorozidis]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/b ... 34ubf.html

[Devilhead]

Carlton have not got a chance in Hades of winning a Premiership yet they go trade for Thomas and whack him on a huge salary

Absolute madness in my opinion considering how middling their list is - Trading like that when your list is going nowhere could set you back 20 years

At least we saw the writing on the wall (Premiership window slammed shut) and are now trying to do something about it

OK its not great finishing in the bottom 3 however our window will be open again a lot sooner than Carlton's.

[vacuous space]

Maybe I'll dredge up the 2012 predictions thread and see how good you all are at figuring out who has a chance at finals, much less a flag. There's too many people here putting way too much stock in abstract list management theory. Bottoming out gets you picks and picks are a guarantee of nothing. Trading experience out for futures is assuming risk and it strikes me the more risk you're assuming, the more wrong things can go. Following Sydney's lead seems to me to be the safe and smart way to go. Add players wherever you see value whenever you can. If you leave yourself at the behest of the draft gods, you could win up as Hawthorn winning flags, Carlton's middle of the ladder act or a Melbourne (or even Brisbane) disaster. Given our recent recruiting history, I'm going to say I think one is less likely than the others.

I think it's commercially foolish to pursue an all-or-nothing lose-to-win strategy in pursuit of a flag. I don't think there's enough evidence that it works on the football side to justify doing it. Especially given that, logically, if the draft is the best way to win, then there's two teams that will be unbeatable for a while.

[Con Gorozidis]

vs - we will be pursuing the draft strategy whether we we like it or not because we will be in the bottom 4 for the next 2 years.

we can never do the 'sydney strategy' because that is a special status strategy bestowed and bankrolled by the afl. It is simply not an option. They also had a separate 'lifestyle' advantage that we wont have.

If we want to look for a model it is the hawks - which is as you say is a combo of using the draft and recruiting good older guys once you are already in striking range.

As for 2012 predictions - even back then everyone new gws and gc were going to be a force sooner or later. everyone also knew freo were contenders. If anything back then most people predicted the cats and swans might drop off a bit sooner. Also back in 2012 - most pundits (and exponents of what you like to call 'abstract list theory') were saying the Saints list was heading towards a cliff - and they were right.

we were also bedazzled by essendons remarkable rise and come from behind victories - but that was a little shall we say 'artificial'.

I also dont think 'abstract list theory' is that abstract. good drafting gets you a good side.
look at freos 2008 draft. look at ports drafting in the last 4 years - then give me a call and tell me the draft doesnt matter.

[Munga]

gws have 27 ......i repeat...27 first round draft picks.....we are never going to get near them.....or that no of picks...

Gah, the AFL has gone to s***. Agendas and power at the cost of integrity.

[saintspremiers]

We need to stay in the bottom 4 for at least another 3 years. The best way to achieve this is to keep trading out players for draft picks. As I have stated previously, at the end of this season we should trade Gilbert and Armitage in order to improve our draft picks. Over the next 3 years I want the following....2014 picks 1 and 19, 2015 picks 2 and 20, 2016 picks 3 and 21 and traded players who are over 27 for even more picks. 2017 should be the year when we really start our climb up the ladder with a flag by 2022.

Oh well at least we aren't dig cheats like your team with a coach in exile in France.

[The Redeemer]

gws have 27 ......i repeat...27 first round draft picks.....we are never going to get near them.....or that no of picks...

Gah, the AFL has gone to s***. Agendas and power at the cost of integrity.

27 does not go into 22 and that does not account for any of the 17-year old that were certain first-round picks.

Therefore, we pillage with higher salary and playing ops for some kids.

[Teflon]

vs - we will be pursuing the draft strategy whether we we like it or not because we will be in the bottom 4 for the next 2 years.

we can never do the 'sydney strategy' because that is a special status strategy bestowed and bankrolled by the afl. It is simply not an option. They also had a separate 'lifestyle' advantage that we wont have.

If we want to look for a model it is the hawks - which is as you say is a combo of using the draft and recruiting good older guys once you are already in striking range.

As for 2012 predictions - even back then everyone new gws and gc were going to be a force sooner or later. everyone also knew freo were contenders. If anything back then most people predicted the cats and swans might drop off a bit sooner. Also back in 2012 - most pundits (and exponents of what you like to call 'abstract list theory') were saying the Saints list was heading towards a cliff - and they were right.

we were also bedazzled by essendons remarkable rise and come from behind victories - but that was a little shall we say 'artificial'.

I also dont think 'abstract list theory' is that abstract. good drafting gets you a good side.
look at freos 2008 draft. look at ports drafting in the last 4 years - then give me a call and tell me the draft doesnt matter.

Correct Con

You need to look at our strategy in the context if us within this comp - financially battling, smaller club
Our last s*** up the ladder was off the back of the draft - yes it's risky but what choice do we have? (I don't see us bank rolling Buddy and Tippet inside 12 mths...)

That doesn't mean you don't add players where you can - eg I would've liked us to add McGlynn? some time ago..... instead we load up with TDL's..(just a c**k up no matter how you look at it from Pluggers football professionals....)

So let's get the drafting strategy right - pray to god there are more Riewoldts than Bryce Gibbs and pick off GWS/GC and all other bargains where we can

Must say I too don't want us being another "plugger or bust" team.... those days are over

[FQF]

Agree with the above re importance of drafting. But I don't think it follows that we must aim for a low finish. Obviously it seems most likely that it will happen whether we like it or not, but we must play to win every game.

[Johnny Favier]

True but in reality I could care less

It's all about timing and staying in the black while bide our time

I'm looking forward to the day the hype is again talking bout St Kildas gun kids ..... when the next Riewoldt is in and we are on the rise and feared. This time lets not have 6-8 super players with massive gap to plodders ..... I want a side with quality on every line

All in good time....

Nicely said.

[saintsRrising]

It is going to be a long, long while before GWS and Suns begin their slide. GWS is a bit behind the Suns but probably has a better collection of young players and is likely to go past them sooner or later.

If they are well run they will be able to stay up longer too, as from their "warehouse" of players they will be able to swap players for early picks.

Not knocking our strategy, but we will be picking up one low pick per year,and maybe several in the top two dozen by trading, when they already have a score.

We have hopefully accelerated the process by trading off middling success for a quicker rebuild.

Not much else that we can do really. But we are building a better team with a hopefully a few superstars, whereas they have been able to build a team of potential superstars.

This is a big reason why FA are useless for us for a while.

[vacuous space]

I also dont think 'abstract list theory' is that abstract. good drafting gets you a good side.

'Bottoming out' is an abstract concept and the benefits derived from it are far from proven. I don't see a lot of explanation, through synthesis of evidence, as to why we need to acquire more early picks. So it's abstract theory rather than applied science. 'Good drafting gets you a good side' is a reasonable supposition, but it's still an abstract simplification. Jared Polec seems a solid pick, but he isn't helping Brisbane much.

Given your response, I clearly failed in articulating a few things:

I don't believe the draft doesn't matter. I think it matters a great deal. So I'm not going to call you and tell you the draft doesn't matter. What I do believe is overrated is the importance of drafting early. Relying on early picks is not a recipe for sustained success. That, I believe, should be the goal for any club. Not a chance at a flag, but many chances at many flags.

I mentioned 2012 because many experts had Sydney out of the top 4 that year - some out of finals altogether.

I brought up Sydney more because of guys like McGlynn than Franklin. Sydney have traded a bunch of early picks and they've blown a bunch of other ones. They didn't have Tippett or Franklin when they won their last flag and I think it's reasonable to suggest they've deviated from a winning formula in adding them. I think the COLA is far less alluring than their winning culture, which they didn't get through bottoming out.

I would much rather battle out to a mid-ladder finish than go into the tank for questionable draft rewards.

[Con Gorozidis]

I also dont think 'abstract list theory' is that abstract. good drafting gets you a good side.

'Bottoming out' is an abstract concept and the benefits derived from it are far from proven. I don't see a lot of explanation, through synthesis of evidence, as to why we need to acquire more early picks. So it's abstract theory rather than applied science. 'Good drafting gets you a good side' is a reasonable supposition, but it's still an abstract simplification. Jared Polec seems a solid pick, but he isn't helping Brisbane much.

Given your response, I clearly failed in articulating a few things:

I don't believe the draft doesn't matter. I think it matters a great deal. So I'm not going to call you and tell you the draft doesn't matter. What I do believe is overrated is the importance of drafting early. Relying on early picks is not a recipe for sustained success. That, I believe, should be the goal for any club. Not a chance at a flag, but many chances at many flags.

I mentioned 2012 because many experts had Sydney out of the top 4 that year - some out of finals altogether.

I brought up Sydney more because of guys like McGlynn than Franklin. Sydney have traded a bunch of early picks and they've blown a bunch of other ones. They didn't have Tippett or Franklin when they won their last flag and I think it's reasonable to suggest they've deviated from a winning formula in adding them. I think the COLA is far less alluring than their winning culture, which they didn't get through bottoming out.

I would much rather battle out to a mid-ladder finish than go into the tank for questionable draft rewards.

if the swans were full of 'McGlynns' theyd be on the bottom thats for sure. Hes your classic guy who looks ok in a good team but would struggle in a poor team.

And Jared Polec just got in the best payers for Port on Saturday night - good player.
24 disposals & 1 goal.

I do agree - its crazy to bottom out and think high draft picks will save you - you need good drafting all the way through.
Take a look at Freos 2008 drafting - and then lo and behold 5-6 years later they are up the top. Im just saying its no coincidence.
It is a self affirming comment to say if you are up the top you drafted well and if you drafted well youre up the top. Its really just saying the same thing. But you cant get to the top without drafting well. You cant cheat the system and there are no shortcuts or methods to avoid this fact. As Carlton have shown - a few number 1 picks will not save you - you need good players from later picks as well.

So I actually think I agree with you - the early drafting is over-rated. Its good solid drafting that counts. Port and Freo are showing that now - and Geelong and the Hawks and Swans have all done consistently well with later picks. You dont need super stars - just a critical mass of good to very good players.

[Teflon]

I don't think anyone is saying finish bottom, get picks = flag.... I think most people realise it's how you complement this with solid drafting along the way and that's a given

What finishing low absolutely, categorically, scientifically and any other (ally) we can think of, does is it puts you at the front if the queue for if/when a Patton or Boyd emerges (and that alone increases your overall drafting/trading power)

Reality for us is we do t have the choice to finish 'middle table to scrounge picks' as our core star group is dusted, we need high quality kids in and Pelchen (by aiming to get us as many high picks he can in short - mid term) knows this.

Battling it out mid table and picking up Mcglynns alone will only ensure we are Carlton IMO and will also ensure that should we want a quality injection of talent then we will end up paying through the nose for it under FA (bad way to chew up cap space and our us back in "eggs in 1 basket" category) IMO