The 50 Game Threshold

[bergholt]

50 games is the point where most players start to be consistently AFL quality - if they're ever going to be.

- Lenny Hayes: Played his 50th right at the end of 2001. In 2002 he lifted his disposal average from 15 a game to 20.
- Nick Riewoldt: Played his 50th right at the end of 2003. In 2004 he kicked 67 goals and had 17 Brownlow votes.
- Nick Dal Santo: Played his 50th at the end of 2004. In 2005 he lifted his disposal average from 19 to almost 23 and picked up 18 Brownlow votes.
- Leigh Montagna: Played his 50th at the end of 2006. Between 05 and 07 he lifted his disposal average from 15 to 24.

The more you look, the more you see it. Somewhere between 40 and 60 games is when the penny drops for most guys. The ones I've mentioned are stars, but look at the last couple of years:

- Jack Steven played his 50th right at the end of 2012. 2013 was his breakout year.
- Dylan Roberton played his 50th last year and looked like a completely different player to what he was the year before at Freo.
- David Armitage played his 50th at the end of 2011. 2012 he started finding the footy more and got some Brownlow votes.
- Jarryn Geary also played his 50th at the end of 2011. 2012 he cemented himself a spot in the side.
- Ben McEvoy was probably a bit ahead of schedule, playing his 50th towards the end of his breakout year which was 2011.
- Jimmy Gwilt finally became a player in 2010, and he played his 50th game round 9 that year.

So one of the reasons we're having a poor year this year is because we've got very few players crossing that threshold. Only one, in fact:

- Rhys Stanley played his 50th in round 15 against Richmond. He's been up and down this year but his game against Essendon in round 5 was his best so far - until last night, which was (hopefully) his breakout game.
- Shane Savage could also be counted. He started the season on 56 games but a few of them were sub-affected. He was over 60 games when he got dropped. But now that he's back in the side, the penny seems to have dropped.

It's pretty obvious that those two are our best improvers this year, or at least up there with some of the impressive debutants.

So here's my point.

Next year, 2015, these guys should reach 50 games:

- Delaney
- Weller
- Newnes
- Hickey
- maybe Milera or Simpkin

After only two this year we should have three to five next year. In 2016 the list is even bigger:

- Siposs
- Ross
- Bruce
- Webster
- Longer
- Curren
- Saunders
- Dunstan
- Billings
- maybe Lee or Murdoch, Wright at a stretch

That's a massive list of guys starting to really understand what they need to do at AFL level. Do you reckon we're going to improve a bit as a side by the end of 2016?


Yes, we're going to lose some superstar veterans. That's going to hurt. But we don't really know what our kids are capable of and in the next two years we're going to find out. That's pretty exciting if you ask me!


(Yes, there's a certain survivorship bias associated with this analysis. Obviously the players who get to 50 games are the better ones because they haven't been dumped by then. But the fact remains that a lot of players exhibit a big increase in performance at or around 50 games.)

[Animal Enclosure]

A vey good post.

Continuing to add talented kids over the next 3-4 years will see a very well balanced side (experience wise) by the time we hit 2018.

Development & injury management will be the key.

[kosifantutti]

I don't think 50 is a magic number.

Players take various amounts of time to come good. Some you persevere with and some you just have to cut.

[Saint wagga]

Good post...whilst it's not a magical number 'experience' is unquestionably crucial and building up a tank, afl physique and adapting to the highest speed of the game often takes anything from 3-5 seasons for 'most' players...given form injuries etc that coincides with about 50 games...I'm a strong believer in this and I think from next year on our week to week performance will depend on the performance of a better spread of players...this is a good thing IMO

[bergholt]

I don't think 50 is a magic number.

You weren't convinced by my examples? Obviously it's not a magic number but most players do take a big step between 40 and 60 games somewhere. Have a look at the data, it's just the way it turns out.

[Old Mate]

Really good analysis berg.

[BringBackMadDog]

I think another important factor is that by 50 games you've also done 3 pre seasons so you have a harder, stronger body and a bigger tank which means you can stay involved in games longer