Core group discussion

[saintjake]

I know we’re only 5 rounds into the season, and we’ve only beaten Gold Coast, who are bloody appalling. But our future is so damn bright it’s scary, and for the first time in recent memory, we really need to tip our hats to the management team at the club. Not budging on the deal with Goddard, letting Dal Santo go, trading McEvoy and trading Stanley have all so far been calculated risk that have paid off immensely.
So far the players that we’ve brought in from other clubs have been huge wins for us. They struggled to get games at their clubs. For various reasons, not from lack of talent. We saw an opportunity to get them, they saw an opportunity for game time and so far its working wonders.
Hickey
Longer
Weller
Bruce
Delaney
Savage
Roberton
Membrey

The core group that we have now is really exciting. We really seem to be building a culture down at Seaford and the young players have taken ownership of the team. Riewoldt and Joey out has been a blessing in disguise. Armo is playing out of his skin & Steven is back to doing what I love, tucking the ball under the arm and just going for it, breaking lines and being attacking.

Just a quick breakdown of the team spread we have and why we should be excited.

RUCKS

Firstly, Longer has been a big surprise this year with how fast he’s come on. He is probably a better pure ruckman than Hickey, but Hickey’s agility and athleticism for someone his size adds so much more. As a Combo its will be pretty scary to other teams. One old school pure ruckman, one Athletic ruckman who can go, both have pretty good hands as well. Longer seemingly at present is a better version of McEvoy. Younger and a better tapper. Hickey seems to be the opposite of both. Athletic ,agile an good below his knees. Good user of the ball too.

MIDFIELD.

Now this is exciting, we seem to finally be developing depth here as well. In the modern game you really need 12 or so players who are able to go through the middle. As a core starter
Steven
Armo
Dunstan
Weller
Acres (yet to really get going, but lets go with it)
To this core group you add Billings and Lonie from the Forward line, Roberton,Newnes, Webster ect
Plus any free agent we can attract. It’s a pretty bloody good launching pad

FORWARDS

Bruce, McCartin, Membrey, Lonie, Billings with Hickey starting down there as well. Its pretty damn good. Any forward would be licking their lips with the idea of Billings/Lonie kicking the ball to them as they come out on the lead. They both missed some shots on the weekend, Lonie seemed to rush a little bit at times. But they are both in their first/second season! And they’re not only getting games but playing well, both get into smart places. If they can both develop into Steve Johnson style half forward with the ability to go into the middle. Jesus Christ its pretty.
McCartin will be fine he’s a natural forward, give him time.
Bruce is flying at the moment and really looks at home in the forward line, strong hands and a big leap.
I really like Membrey. Once Riewoldt comes back/McCartin matures and Membrey ends up with the third or fourth defender, he’ll be dangerous.
The best thing about McCartin/Membrey/Bruce is that they all crash packs and make contests. And with Billings and Lonie at their feet, most of the spillages will end up in goals.

BACKLINE

This one has a good core of flankers/midsized. With Roberton, Webster, Wright, Newnes, Geary, Gilbo. Delaney seems good at FB and Goddard hopefully can hold down CHB. I just feel that we are a tall short down here and could leave us exposed. Just an opinion.

What’s everyone else’s opinions. Is everyone as “glass have full” as I am about the core of this list? What do you think we need to add in the next year or two to really make us a threat?
Can Hickey and Longer both work together or do you think one will be traded?

Debate, go!

[saintsRrising]

We have built positions all over the field. Both role players and some genuine talent.

Main need looking after Roo, Fisher and Co are gone, if we want to be at the top end of the ladder, is 2 ELITE mids to add to it. Whether by nailing our first pick next year or with one or 2 Free Agents.

DMack Delaney Webster
Savage Goddard Roberton
????????? Armo ?????????
Billings Bruce Membrey/White/Lee
Lonie McCartin Sinclair

Longer Dunstan Steven

Acres Newnes Weller Hickey

[plugger66]

Unfortunately we are still 8 to 10 players short of being a finals side. When you win or get very close you say you have great depth and great young kids and then you have 2 ordinary games the depth is no good and some of the kids aren't any good. Our future stars are Billings for sure and then who knows. To early for most. Bruce is going to be a very good player but I will not be sold on a forward line where Hickey plays mainly as a forward. I cant see how Rooy or in 2 years McCartin works with Membery, Bruce and Hickey. Not enough forward pressure for my liking but the game may change to suit that lineup. To early to tell on that. The mids are still the main issue and I reckon we are 4 short in that position. Backs are solid but it is a bottom 6 backline. Need much more class in there. Rucks don't see to be an issue at all apart from having to many and managing that properly. Overall we are pretty much where I thought we would be or if anything ahead considering Joey and Rooy have missed most games. 2 more great years of recruiting will make 2018 a pretty exciting year and hopefully finals by 2019. 2001 recruiting could make all that happen a year earlier. 2009 recruiting could put us back a year or two.

By the way a great write up.

[saintsRrising]

We still have several drafts to go....so have time to build more depth, and yes some of those will replace the above group.

But we already have good coverage APART from the midfield...

[saintjake]

We have built positions all over the field. Both role players and some genuine talent.

Main need looking after Roo, Fisher and Co are gone, if we want to be at the top end of the ladder, is 2 ELITE mids to add to it. Whether by nailing our first pick next year or with one or 2 Free Agents.

DMack Delaney Webster
Savage Goddard Roberton
????????? Armo ?????????
Billings Bruce Membrey/White/Lee
Lonie McCartin Sinclair

Longer Dunstan Steven

Acres Newnes Weller Hickey

If we could land one line breaking speeder with elite disposal
and another big bodied in an under player like Armo that would be a dream!

[Griggsy]

I think we can move up the ladder a little next year if roo plays on, just to give McCartin more time. after the rest of this season and preseason the guys that have been In the system a few years could be hitting their stride and leading the team without looking to our vets. When I see some of the young guys making silly mistakes or being beaten for strength I immediately think 'that wouldn't happen in a couple years once they are experienced' at which point those <10 point losses start turning into W's. It's all about potential and we have it.

Once that happens we bag a free agent and get our next top 10 pick and start pushing top 8, exciting times ahead.

[saintjake]

Unfortunately we are still 8 to 10 players short of being a finals side. When you win or get very close you say you have great depth and great young kids and then you have 2 ordinary games the depth is no good and some of the kids aren't any good. Our future stars are Billings for sure and then who knows. To early for most. Bruce is going to be a very good player but I will not be sold on a forward line where Hickey plays mainly as a forward. I cant see how Rooy or in 2 years McCartin works with Membery, Bruce and Hickey. Not enough forward pressure for my liking but the game may change to suit that lineup. To early to tell on that. The mids are still the main issue and I reckon we are 4 short in that position. Backs are solid but it is a bottom 6 backline. Need much more class in there. Rucks don't see to be an issue at all apart from having to many and managing that properly. Overall we are pretty much where I thought we would be or if anything ahead considering Joey and Rooy have missed most games. 2 more great years of recruiting will make 2018 a pretty exciting year and hopefully finals by 2019. 2001 recruiting could make all that happen a year earlier. 2009 recruiting could put us back a year or two.

By the way a great write up.

I agree with you on the forward line regarding the pressure. A lot comes down to Membrey/Bruce and McCartin to chase and tackle as well. Trying to fit both Hickey in Longer in the same side is difficult. But I don't think losing one of them is a good idea. Both are very young and have to potential to be "A" graders. would hate watching one of them tear us apart.
Good ruckman do get alot at the trade table though. Trading one over losing one as a free agent would net us more for sure.
Personally I'd rather keep Hickey over Longer. I just feel that with his athleticism he would be much better all round. Its a bloody tough dilemma... a good dilemma to have though

[saintjake]

I think we can move up the ladder a little next year if roo plays on, just to give McCartin more time. after the rest of this season and preseason the guys that have been In the system a few years could be hitting their stride and leading the team without looking to our vets. When I see some of the young guys making silly mistakes or being beaten for strength I immediately think 'that wouldn't happen in a couple years once they are experienced' at which point those <10 point losses start turning into W's. It's all about potential and we have it.

Once that happens we bag a free agent and get our next top 10 pick and start pushing top 8, exciting times ahead.

100% agree!!
Lonie made a few errors on the weekend just by rushing and panicking a bit. But it's his first season and he probably weighs 60kgs whilst dripping wet!
The extra players we are looking for could easily come from within with a few more pre-seasons and gym sessions.
Acres hasn't even got going and he is meant to be better than Dunstan and Billings!

[FQF]

We will definitely draft at least 5 midfielders across the next two years (be it draft, trade, FA). We need 2 of those to be elite and 2 to make it as regulars.
If that happens and Ross comes on, we will have ourselves a midfield with an inspiring captain in Armo.

Backs and forwards, although needing more development and drafting look very well placed.

Things look good but we need to remember that we don't play in a vacuum and we will be competing with young teams like Port, WB, Collingwood, GC, GWS and every single one of those teams has comparably good young talent.

[mad saint guy]

I think we need a few elite mids, an elite half back and one or two gun key defenders. We should be set for rucks and tall forwards but outside of those roles we just need more elite talent.

I'm pretty confident that the following players could be part of a very good side in 2020 (when we'd be hoping to challenge for a flag)

B: -----, -----, Webster (26)
HB: Newnes (27), Goddard (23), McKenzie (23)
C: Billings (24), -----, Acres (24)
HF: Lonie (23), Bruce (27), -----
F: Hickey (29), McCartin (23), -----

Foll: Longer (26), Steven (29), Dunstan (25)
Int: Armitage (31), -----, -----, -----

If you throw a Shiel/Treloar in the midfield along with a couple of top 3 picks it suddenly becomes a very potent, dangerous side.

I'm sure that some of Savage (29), Roberton (28), Weller (28), Sinclair (25), Templeton (24), Delaney (31), Ross (27), Membrey (26), Lee (29), White (25) and Wright (26) will have cemented themselves as well, although honestly we will need significantly better players to seriously push for a flag. We probably wouldn't want more than 3, maybe 4 of those guys in our best 22. Most of them could still be on the list but we need more genuine A-grade talent than what we currently have. I'm sure we'll see plenty of those guys over the next few years but I don't expect too many to be in our next top 4 side.

[saintjake]

I'm sure that some of Savage (29), Roberton (28), Weller (28), Sinclair (25), Templeton (24), Delaney (31), Ross (27), Membrey (26), Lee (29), White (25) and Wright (26) will have cemented themselves as well, although honestly we will need significantly better players to seriously push for a flag. We probably wouldn't want more than 3, maybe 4 of those guys in our best 22. Most of them could still be on the list but we need more genuine A-grade talent than what we currently have. I'm sure we'll see plenty of those guys over the next few years but I don't expect too many to be in our next top 4 side.

Of these guys I really like Roberton,Weller and Membrey.
I really hope Roberton can continue to push up onto the wings and continue to get forward and sneak some goals. He's got a great engine, takes the game on and uses it well either side. If Webster/Wright continue to improve it will allow Robbo to push up.

Weller tags at the moment and does a pretty decent job, hopefully it teaches him plenty. BECAUSE I think he's got enough tools to become a pretty damaging in and under midfielder and a great foil for Armo. He's as hard as a cats head, brave and pushes hard.

Membrey is 10 games in or something like that. He presents really well, always creates a contest in the and isnt a liability when it hits the deck, as soon as its on the ground he has second and third efforts. Im a big fan. I see him as a clear third tall, Spencer/Lee are really fighting with Paddy forthe second tall spot behind Bruce.
Membrey is the perfect size for the third tall.
In saying that, all of Bruce/Paddy/Membrey/Spencer are agile and good below the knees, if they all show intensity and intent when the ball hits the deck and chase and tackle and stop the ball coming out, I don't see any reason why they can't all play in the one forward line. None of them are the old style slow dinosaur forward. They all move well and are pretty quick.

[bergholt]

Project forward to the start of 2018.

Super-Veterans

We might have one or two of these guys left:

Fisher (almost 36), Riewoldt (35), Montagna (34), Dempster (34), Schneider (almost 34), Ray (32), Gilbert (almost 32)

Probably none of them though.

Veterans

We'll have these guys as our most experienced veterans:

Armitage (almost 30, 150 games), Geary (almost 30, 150 games), Steven (28, 150 games), Delaney (almost 29, 100 games)

Actually starts to look pretty good if these four are the oldest, supported by a larger bunch who are in their prime.

Middle Tier

These guys would be in their prime:

Savage (27, 130 games), Roberton (almost 27, 120 games), Weller (26, 100 games), Newnes (25, 100 games)
Hickey (27, 80 games), Bruce (almost 26, 80 games), Longer (almost 25, 80 games), Ross (almost 25, 80 games)
Webster (almost 25, 70 games), Dunstan (23, 70 games), Billings (22, 70 games), Lee? (27, 50 games)

Likely Core Team

We should be able to build a team from this bunch:

FB: Geary, Delaney, Lee?
HB: Savage, ?, Newnes
C: Steven, Dunstan, Ross
HF: Billings, ?, ?
FF: Hickey, Bruce, ?
R: Longer, Armitage, Weller
IC: Webster, Roberton, ?, ?

Not exactly a world-beating side, but looks like it could be solid enough if these guys continue along their trajectories, some are pretty good already and all of them show promising signs. With 70+ games under their belt and 5+ pre-seasons I reckon they could be pretty competitive.

Still Developing

And then we also have the choice of whichever of these guys have stuck around:

Murdoch (24, 50 games), Wright (24, 50 games), Saunders (almost 24, 50 games), Membrey (almost 24, 40 games)
White (23, 40 games), Sinclair (23, 40 games), Templeton (22, 40 games), Lonie (21, 40 games)
Acres (22, 30 games), McCartin (22, 30 games), Minchington (24, 30 games), McKenzie (almost 22, 25 games), Goddard (21, 25 games)
Pierce (23, 20 games), Payne (21, 15 games)

Possible Best Side

Making some guesses, it probably ends up looking something like this:

FB: Geary, Delaney, Lee?
HB: Savage, Goddard, Newnes
C: Steven, Dunstan, Ross
HF: Billings, Hickey, Lonie
FF: Membrey, Bruce, McCartin
R: Longer, Armitage, Weller
IC: Sinclair, Webster, Roberton, Acres

Not a bad side if they all play to potential. The obvious issue is midfield. The only true mids there (so far) are Armitage, Steven, Dunstan, Weller, Ross and Sinclair (he might not be good enough but he definitely plays like a mid). Remains to be seen if Newnes, Roberton, Webster, Acres, Savage, Billings, Lonie, etc make the transition. If we hit two high-class mids with our early picks the next two years then we'll be looking better but it's a long way to go.

But let's not pick tall forwards with early picks. Bruce, McCartin, Membrey, Hickey, White, maybe Pierce. Surely we'll get at least one or two good ones out of that.

[plugger66]

IM going to have a guess and say from that side that the following players will not make it. All the FB line will not be good enough to play in a finals side. Ross may not make it. IMO no way will Hickey make it as a forward only so the game will need to change to fit 2 ruckmen in. Membery may not make it. Very early to say on Sinclair and I doubt Roberton is good enough. So I reckon we are about 8 short. It is impossible to say though. You could be much close than me but we wont know for 3 years.

[bergholt]

IM going to have a guess and say from that side that the following players will not make it. All the FB line will not be good enough to play in a finals side. Ross may not make it. IMO no way will Hickey make it as a forward only so the game will need to change to fit 2 ruckmen in. Membery may not make it. Very early to say on Sinclair and I doubt Roberton is good enough. So I reckon we are about 8 short. It is impossible to say though. You could be much close than me but we wont know for 3 years.

Yeah, you're probably pretty close.

But conversely, there are guys who I didn't name in that team who could well make it. One of Murdoch, Wright and Saunders might get there. White and Minchington have outside chances. McKenzie and Templeton seem promising. Wouldn't expect too much from Pierce and Payne. But I'd expect one or two of those nine to make it.

And then there's also three drafts and trade periods between now and the start of 2018. Each of those could throw up a couple of players, maybe more. At present we have 7 regulars and 2 others from 2013, 3 playing regularly and 2 others from 2014. Even if we only pick up a couple who make it in each off-season, that's 6 more in the best side, pushing out guys like Roberton, Ross and Lee.

Yes, as you've said before, if we have any off-seasons like 2009 or 2010 in the next few years then we're in a lot of trouble. But if we draft well then that side can definitely win a final. Then winning a grand final is going to require at least a couple of superstars.

[dragit]

It's good to get excited, but here's my locks so far

FB ..... ..... .....
HB Newnes .... ....
C Steven Dunstan ....
HF Billings .... Lonie
FF .... .... ....

Foll .... Armitage ....

Int .... .... ....

McCartin, Goddard, Longer, Acres, McKenzie, Sinclair, Bruce, Webster, etc could all be very good, but need to work towards 50 games before we really know much about them.

[gringo]

Come on draggers and plugger have some hope. Of course not all will make it but probably 2 out 4 will have decent careers and there will be bolters and flops. It's a bit like picking a trifecta in the Melbourne cup. There will be some like Bruce who end up being come from nowhere a and others that will be high drafted flops.

[Teflon]

good thread

agree with most - midfield is the worry we need genuine star talent and dont have it right now
Im not sold on Geary, Delaney in our best back 6...Lee is looking mighty unlikely
I reckon Acres will make it....he has time with the ball a rare gift
Roberton impresses me....can he play mid? has he been tried......good user and doesnt panick
Most top sides have 3-4 genuine super stars - ideally spread around. If you look at us at our best we had Hayes, Riewoldt, Fisher, Goddard, Dal Santo.......how ferk did we not win a flag??????? I do think we fell away list wise badly...this isnt myth this is fact.....Im hopeful the new core is a level or 2 above that previous one that had the likes of Eddy, Mcqualter, Jones etc

[bigred]

Great thread.

I wrote out a whole bunch of crap...but I think you guys have already covered it.

[dragit]

Come on draggers and plugger have some hope. Of course not all will make it but probably 2 out 4 will have decent careers and there will be bolters and flops. It's a bit like picking a trifecta in the Melbourne cup. There will be some like Bruce who end up being come from nowhere a and others that will be high drafted flops.

I have heaps of hope and excitement.... I just don't like declaring an 18 year old a future premiership hero before they've played one AFL game - Goddard.

I thought Wright was a lock 18 months ago, now he seems to be Really struggling with disposal, has a lot to do.

I'm looking forward to some future stars arriving and a few coming from nowhere like Lonie.

[saintsRrising]

If Geary is still a regular in 2018, then it means our recruiting will have failed.

The guys that can play on when they start to age are your silk players, as they can drop a bit in effectiveness and still be good. If you have to play your battlers, then you team will struggling as they will be on the decline.

Geary is part of the mix here and now, but if we really want to become Top 4 again then we need to build our quality, and it is more important than ever before to get more good ball users into your team.

Look at Freo...a good team made better because they have squeezed out Zac (and I have always been a fan of Zac's) in favour of another good ball user. There are other reasons, but a much more attacking backline is certainly part of their improvement this year.

Not just Geary of course, but asa % we need to improve our ball users. So for example while I am a Ray fan and he has many good aspects to his game, he too tends to spray it a bit.

Duntan is young, and excits me. But if he can improve his ball usea bit he could well become an elite mid.


One thing is for sure, and that is we will never make Top 4 again till we can kick it back less to our opponents than we currently do. Teams often get punished severly these days from soft turnovers as your team mates are all breaking away from their opponents, meaning that if you gift the opposition the ball that it HURTS if they are any good.

[sasaint]

My dream is that we build with selective poaching of great young players. How sweet would be stealing Scharenburg from the Pies. Karma for Ball. Maybe poaching Aish from the Lions. A perfect fit for our midfield.

[Gershwin]

Nobody has spoken about the coach. To win a Premiership you need a top coach - a leader of players and a strategist. Is Richardson the man or do we look at someone else to finish the job?

[plugger66]

Come on draggers and plugger have some hope. Of course not all will make it but probably 2 out 4 will have decent careers and there will be bolters and flops. It's a bit like picking a trifecta in the Melbourne cup. There will be some like Bruce who end up being come from nowhere a and others that will be high drafted flops.

Of course some will make it who we think wont but it works in reverse as well. Im just using history of the AFL to say we will need at least 8 players from todays list before we make the finals and a couple of them need to be superstars. This is a discussion on the core group and it doesn't say we cant say we need more in the core group. We have plenty of drats to get it right. If we keep draft like the last 2 years we will certainly play finals in the next 4 years and hopefully finish top 4 because we know you cannot win the flag unless top 4.

[FQF]

Nobody has spoken about the coach. To win a Premiership you need a top coach - a leader of players and a strategist. Is Richardson the man or do we look at someone else to finish the job?

There was a thread recently assessing Richo. General consensus is that he seems like the right man for the rebuild and it is otherwise too early to tell if he can take us to the next stage.

[FQF]

Is Newnes really a lock? Disposal is iffy and to me seems to be a classic GOP at this stage.