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By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
As long as the players you trade for have the ability to play 10 years it doesn't matter if you get them via trade or in the draft. One has much more risk but may have more upside but Carlisle at his best is a proven very good player and Freeman, if he gets fit, is like a draft pick anyway except we will most likely get him about 16 picks later then where he initially went.
I don't get the obsession with this imaginary timeline people have in their heads??
If the right player becomes available this year, why would we pass it up because it's "not the right year"??
All our list management have to decide is whether they believe we'll get more out of the player we trade for, or the kid who we think will be available at that pick in the draft.
If we are targeting Freeman and Carlisle, they both sit within our age structure, so we should go really hard without giving up too much.
Given the amount of work going on for trading players this year, I think most clubs realise the draft pool is shallow, so 3 inside 25 might not give the value it has in previous years. Taking Pick 5 out of it, I think Ross and Hickey are both better footballers than what would be left outside the top 10 anyway, we shouldn't be giving them up too easily.
I think one of the major reasons they have decided to go down the trade path as this years draft is considered quite weak. Having said that we have traded in 2 x players nearly every year of the rebuild - Hickey, Longer, Savage, Delaney, Bruce, Membrey and Weller & Robertson who were delisted.
This year will be Freeman & another possibly Carlisle (?), Kelly(?) , Seedsman (?)...
In reality it is not that far departed from the Hawks model!
SAINTS another day older another day closer to the Holy Grail!
I dont know, but when Pelchan presented the plan a couple of years back, the trading landscape was a bit different.
We now have trading future picks
points system for draft picks
and can spend up to 105% of SC.
As I said I dont think any of these were available a couple of years back, and I dont think it is a great move to stick rigidly to a plan if the goalpost re trading and the rest have moved.
Also we unexpectedly picked up Goddard late in the draft. When Carlisle came available and we have McCartin coming through their is basically our spine for ten years. Also we lose Fisher and Dempster after next year.
I think we are still concentrating on mids. Freeman was an unexpected bonus and from what has been reported here we are looking at Aish, O'Meara, and even Lennon and Crouch all in the age demographic and all would be in the 22 if we picked them up.
Obviously only Freeman is coming at the moment, but we are cashed up, and should strike when the iron is hot.
As BFUSA pointed out trades for next year are already underway.
I think the Saints are being aggressive this trading season and if we land Freeman and Carlisle and manage to keep #5 get Rice for F/S and upgrade Sinclair our list has improved significantly.
Bunk_Moreland wrote:I dont know, but when Pelchan presented the plan a couple of years back, the trading landscape was a bit different.
We now have trading future picks
points system for draft picks
and can spend up to 105% of SC.
As I said I dont think any of these were available a couple of years back, and I dont think it is a great move to stick rigidly to a plan if the goalpost re trading and the rest have moved.
Also we unexpectedly picked up Goddard late in the draft. When Carlisle came available and we have McCartin coming through their is basically our spine for ten years. Also we lose Fisher and Dempster after next year.
I think we are still concentrating on mids. Freeman was an unexpected bonus and from what has been reported here we are looking at Aish, O'Meara, and even Lennon and Crouch all in the age demographic and all would be in the 22 if we picked them up.
Obviously only Freeman is coming at the moment, but we are cashed up, and should strike when the iron is hot.
As BFUSA pointed out trades for next year are already underway.
I think the Saints are being aggressive this trading season and if we land Freeman and Carlisle and manage to keep #5 get Rice for F/S and upgrade Sinclair our list has improved significantly.
Exactly. You cant just say what we planned to do 3 years ago should be done now. As you pointed out the ability or lack of ability of players drafted in the last 2 or 3 dictates the plan for the following season as does changing draft rules. I'm not as confident as you in keeping pick 5 but I still believe as long as you are trading for potential 10 year players then there is nothing wrong with using picks to get proven players or players with a huge upside.
I still say we must hold onto our first 2 picks no matter what. Darcy Parish at pick 5 or 6ish & Kieran Collins at pick 23 or 24ish......That is still what I am hoping for to be honest.
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
How the hell do you know if those 1st two picks will be any good. Have a look at the number of 1st rounders that have left their club, either delisted or traded. Obviously there are no guarantees but Carlisle and to a lesser degree Aish are proven so they could cost our 1st two picks which I have no problem with. Freeman is worth a 3rd rounder. Would you prefer these guys or a Matthew Watson or Blaine Boekhurst or a Jack Watts type?
citywest wrote:I still say we must hold onto our first 2 picks no matter what. Darcy Parish at pick 5 or 6ish & Kieran Collins at pick 23 or 24ish......That is still what I am hoping for to be honest.
I understand the desire to hang onto our first two picks, but Freeman, Carlisle and Aish all fit our criteria for building a strong and sustainable, long term list. The advantage of getting any of those three, is that we know a fair bit more about them than we do with a couple of speculative draft picks. Carlisle and Aish have significant exposed form, while Freeman is more of a risk, but has still been in the system for two years. My sources at Dingley tell me he's a near certainty to be at the saints next year and that he's jumping out of his skin to get to work. It may work out in the end that we end up being repaid somewhat by Davoren's incompetence. They are all young enough to give terrific value and service.
As BM pointed out, the trading landscape has changed quite dramatically in a very short period of time and it looks as though our guys are moving with the times. In Finnis, Bains and the trout we trust. As for the pelican's strategy, it is so yesterday. The reason he's no longer there is that he was found out. Had he spent more time at the club and doing his well paid job, instead of allegedly pursuing his own agendas, he may have survived. Going by how we've gone since he left, I'd say the club made the right call. He hasn't bobbed up somewhere else. Interesting.......
I started with nothing and I've got most of it left!
We are not going to be able to get Carlilse and Freeman and keep our first round pick.
I would offer Collingwood our pick 5 for Freeman and two 2nd rounders, this and next years.
That would give them two first rounders to offer up for Treloar.
It gives us two second rounders to play with this year and next.
Those four may be able to secure Carlilse and Aish.
Freeman, Carlilse and Aish would be three first rounders straight up.
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
How the hell do you know if those 1st two picks will be any good. Have a look at the number of 1st rounders that have left their club, either delisted or traded. Obviously there are no guarantees but Carlisle and to a lesser degree Aish are proven so they could cost our 1st two picks which I have no problem with. Freeman is worth a 3rd rounder. Would you prefer these guys or a Matthew Watson or Blaine Boekhurst or a Jack Watts type?
Trust me, Parish will be elite and Collins will be another Dempster.
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
How the hell do you know if those 1st two picks will be any good. Have a look at the number of 1st rounders that have left their club, either delisted or traded. Obviously there are no guarantees but Carlisle and to a lesser degree Aish are proven so they could cost our 1st two picks which I have no problem with. Freeman is worth a 3rd rounder. Would you prefer these guys or a Matthew Watson or Blaine Boekhurst or a Jack Watts type?
Trust me, Parish will be elite and Collins will be another Dempster.
Unfortunately even the experts get many wrong so its hard to trust someone who would hardly of seen any of them play much at all.
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
How the hell do you know if those 1st two picks will be any good. Have a look at the number of 1st rounders that have left their club, either delisted or traded. Obviously there are no guarantees but Carlisle and to a lesser degree Aish are proven so they could cost our 1st two picks which I have no problem with. Freeman is worth a 3rd rounder. Would you prefer these guys or a Matthew Watson or Blaine Boekhurst or a Jack Watts type?
Trust me, Parish will be elite and Collins will be another Dempster.
How can I trust you when I don't know who you are. What happens if those two guys aren't available at St Kilda's picks?
citywest wrote:By the looks of things the mighty Saints are looking to trade for Carlisle and Freeman and possibly Aish as well. Why have they decided to move away from the Pelican's brief of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
At the completion of the Trade Period and the National Draft, if we ended up with Carlisle, Freeman, two 18 year old gun midfielders with picks 5 & 23 and only lost Hickey and Ross, I would be rapt. Then at the end of the 2016 season if you want to go hard on trading and or Free Agents, go for your life.
How the hell do you know if those 1st two picks will be any good. Have a look at the number of 1st rounders that have left their club, either delisted or traded. Obviously there are no guarantees but Carlisle and to a lesser degree Aish are proven so they could cost our 1st two picks which I have no problem with. Freeman is worth a 3rd rounder. Would you prefer these guys or a Matthew Watson or Blaine Boekhurst or a Jack Watts type?
Trust me, Parish will be elite and Collins will be another Dempster.
How can I trust you when I don't know who you are. What happens if those two guys aren't available at St Kilda's picks?
I think there is a good chance that Parish will still be there but Collins may not. Time will tell.
The short answer is that the draft is both weak and compromised. The players we want...
Hopper
Mills
Keays
Parish
..will all be gone by pick 5.
The longer answer is our list is still unbalanced - lots of kids and a few oldies - not many in the middle.
Add to that we now need to target specific positional weaknesses rather than just draft best available.
So the answer is all about list management and getting an even list.
WinnersOnly wrote:I think one of the major reasons they have decided to go down the trade path as this years draft is considered quite weak. Having said that we have traded in 2 x players nearly every year of the rebuild - Hickey, Longer, Savage, Delaney, Bruce, Membrey and Weller & Robertson who were delisted.
This year will be Freeman & another possibly Carlisle (?), Kelly(?) , Seedsman (?)...
In reality it is not that far departed from the Hawks model!
There is one big difference to the Hawks model.
When the question was asked of the best 20 players who will take a 30% pay cut to make room for player imports who want to win a premiership at St Kilda there were no volunteers.
(OK so they already knew the answer so did not even ask).
Luke Ball even spat his dummy and went and joined Collingwood.
Most Hawthorn players could command 50% more on the open market but they take their pay in premiership opportunities.
Even imports join for less pay just for the prospect to play in a premiership.
Even today there are players queuing up to join Hawthorn for less money.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA
SinCitySainter wrote:We are not going to be able to get Carlilse and Freeman and keep our first round pick.
I would offer Collingwood our pick 5 for Freeman and two 2nd rounders, this and next years.
That would give them two first rounders to offer up for Treloar.
It gives us two second rounders to play with this year and next.
Those four may be able to secure Carlilse and Aish.
Freeman, Carlilse and Aish would be three first rounders straight up.
Just how snappy are Freeman's hamstrings.
We burned a pick 5 and a pick 8 on snappy hamstrings called Clarke brothers in the past.
Once a hamstring is torn it never repairs as good again.
Each time it tears it is just waiting for another chance.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA
SinCitySainter wrote:We are not going to be able to get Carlilse and Freeman and keep our first round pick.
I would offer Collingwood our pick 5 for Freeman and two 2nd rounders, this and next years.
That would give them two first rounders to offer up for Treloar.
It gives us two second rounders to play with this year and next.
Those four may be able to secure Carlilse and Aish.
Freeman, Carlilse and Aish would be three first rounders straight up.
What about
Freeman + Seedsman + Pick 25 for pick 5?
Leaves us with Freeman + Seedsman + picks 23 & 25. Guarantees the Pies Treloar (for picks 5&7).
I think pick 5 will be for Carlisle and maybe their 2nd rounder, we use that for freeman. Otherwise we split pick 5 for two picks in the teens and use those for trades.
Rosco wrote:I think pick 5 will be for Carlisle and maybe their 2nd rounder, we use that for freeman. Otherwise we split pick 5 for two picks in the teens and use those for trades.
Splitting pick 5 isn't such a bad idea, if we can get 2 in the low teens. Then we trade 1 or them for Carlisle and try and use the other for Aish. Then hopefully our third round pick for Freeman.
The only down side is we don't get a potential elite 18 year old.
Rosco wrote:I think pick 5 will be for Carlisle and maybe their 2nd rounder, we use that for freeman. Otherwise we split pick 5 for two picks in the teens and use those for trades.
Splitting pick 5 isn't such a bad idea, if we can get 2 in the low teens. Then we trade 1 or them for Carlisle and try and use the other for Aish. Then hopefully our third round pick for Freeman.
The only down side is we don't get a potential elite 18 year old.
If they can all play 10 years it doesn't matter and baring injury all of them have 10 years left. 2 of them were considered elite 3 years ago anyway.
Rosco wrote:I think pick 5 will be for Carlisle and maybe their 2nd rounder, we use that for freeman. Otherwise we split pick 5 for two picks in the teens and use those for trades.
Splitting pick 5 isn't such a bad idea, if we can get 2 in the low teens. Then we trade 1 or them for Carlisle and try and use the other for Aish. Then hopefully our third round pick for Freeman.
The only down side is we don't get a potential elite 18 year old.
If they can all play 10 years it doesn't matter and baring injury all of them have 10 years left. 2 of them were considered elite 3 years ago anyway.
R66 is correct. I am warming to the idea of using #5 for Carlilse if something comes back in the case of like what they may get for Melskham (not sure what Melbourne have to give them)
Dont think Aish will come to us.
Apparently looking elsewhere for a Lennon or Crouch or Aaron Young, whom I know nothing about.
Freeman is a gun. Not many can run lines like that.
Collingwood are pissed off! They want him but guess what?? Hes a massive saints fan. His whole family is and before even playing a game he has managed to get one up on our enemies for us!! Welcome Nathan!!
Carlisle is a weird one. He is a gun and at 200cm perfect chb we need. BUT is he swirched on? Does he fit the mould?
I have confidence Bains and co will do the due diligence on this.
Aish? I dont see why he is so valued. He looks ok. But wheres the high skills people keep talking of? Watched his afl games? Looks like geary yet not as tough. Geary is a fine soldier but Second rounders and chasing?? No
Get Freeman, Carlisle if hes mentally stable and another 4 young talented players to mould.
Rookie drafted players are still top 70 kids in australia for their age. Top 70!!!! We all wonder why the good clubs keep doing well its because coaching and culture matter he most. Not draft picks.
Tell you whats funny ... Carlton keeping kreuzer, melbourne chasing melksham, pies losing freeman chasing trelor. what are they doing.
Trelor is overated. They are paying overs for him.
of hitting the National Draft hard with 3 picks in the top 25? It may take a little longer to break into the top 8 using Pelican's method but surely the vast improvement of this year counteracts that. Personally I will be disappointed if we trade either of our first or second picks. Those 2 picks should be sacrosanct. My view is that our first 2 picks should be used in the ND on the 2 best midfielders possible. Once we have achieved that then I would consider a straight swap, Hickey for Carlisle, then for Freeman our third pick plus a player (I don't know who but someone we can afford to lose, maybe Seb Ross).
