WTF Hawks..!

[saintbrat]

Noted that Clarko did not put himself in a position to be questioned be media or general public by doing his interview on club website only

[Goose is king]

So they have their first pick in the 80's and have to draft three players. Haha

[Toy Saint]

What is the general understanding of O'Meara's health and fitness, or more specifically, exactly what type of performance would the Hawks be expecting next year?

[Goose is king]

88,90 and 108 haha

[Goose is king]

Mitchel for pick 14 was a good get

[Rosco]

mitchell was a good get. but they also lost hill with nothing to show, and next years first rounder, and two ageing B&F 1st & 2nd players. that's a draft plus a 1st plus a best 22 player for two elite mids (albeit with one under a cloud) with two seniors out the door. wouldn't want to be a hawk right now.

[bigcarl]

I worry about what it does to the fabric of a club to cull a couple of legends like that ... four time premiership players.

Mitchell particularly. A five-times Peter Crimmins medallist, who has worn Crimmins' No. 5 with distinction over many seasons.

The family club. Pffft

[White Winmar]

I worry about what it does to the fabric of a club to cull a couple of legends like that ... four time premiership players.

Mitchell particularly. A five-times Peter Crimmins medallist, who has worn Crimmins' No. 5 with distinction over many seasons.

The family club. Pffft

They're the family club, alright. The Manson family!

[Griggsy]

Hawks have hit the panic button but that is understandable. Roughie tragedy. Hodge, Burgoyne, Gibson and Mitchell all at the end. Lewis struggling. They are facing the end of an era.

Which might just make next years first rounder very valuable!!!!

We can only hope, there are more clubs on the way up than on the way down. Hope all of us pass Hawks

They finished 3rd, of he teams below them on the ladder...

Saints, dogs, gws, crows, pies, demons, eagles are all good chance to overtake their position next year.

And wouldn't write off, port, blues, bombers...and freo?

My second team next year is whoever plays Hawks.

[stkfc1]

What is the general understanding of O'Meara's health and fitness, or more specifically, exactly what type of performance would the Hawks be expecting next year?

I recently caught a flight back from LA and JOM was sitting near me. The first thing you see by looking at him is how disproportionate his legs are to his body. He has the upper body of an AFL player and the legs of a 12 year old boy. They are like sticks. He is going to need a long time to build up those pins to match the rest of him. He is going to need a couple of pre seasons at least and he will definitely be prone to muscle injuries in that time. Massive risk IMO.

[saintspremiers]

Hawks will not make the 8 next year. That's part of our fairytale.

[ace]

Hawks will not make the 8 next year. That's part of our fairytale.

2003 Collingwood finish 2nd out of 16
2004 Collingwood finish 4th bottom out of 16
2005 Collingwood finish 2nd bottom out of 16
2015 Hawthorn finish premiers out of 18
2016 Hawthorn finish 5th out of 18
2017 Hawthorn finish 4th bottom out of 18
St Kilda gets 2017 pick 4 plus 2016 picks 23 & 36 FOR 2016 picks 10 & 68
2017 pick 4 kicks winning goal in St Kilda's 6th premiership, 5peet.

[White Winmar]

If we had secured Tom Mitchell and JOM in this trade period, we'd be popping the champagne corks. Try Vickery, not so much, but his best is very handy. I know they gave away a lot to get what they needed, but in the end, as is their way, mission accomplished! They'll rebuild their draft position through trading players who'll be overvalued because they're Hawks. Another ruthless cull will take place next year. Then they'll relaunch in earnest.

They have imminent retirements coming in the form of Burgoyne, Gibson, Hodge and Roughy probably won't make it back. That's a lot of salary cap room right there, on top of Lewis and Mitchell going. Which brings me to the point about their ruthlessness. Clearly, Mitchell and Lewis were not part of their plans for the future. No sentiment. Out they go. My only criticism of their trading is they could've demanded more for Mitchell and they certainly should've demanded more from Melbourne for Lewis. In the end, they would've strengthened their bargaining position over JOM, without the last minute scrambling around. We will have plenty of competition for FA when they come onto the market. Make no mistake, Hawthorn will be a major obstacle in landing one. I wouldn't be surprised if Fyfe and Martin land there in search of a flag.

[Johnny Member]

If we had secured Tom Mitchell and JOM in this trade period, we'd be popping the champagne corks. Try Vickery, not so much, but his best is very handy. I know they gave away a lot to get what they needed, but in the end, as is their way, mission accomplished! They'll rebuild their draft position through trading players who'll be overvalued because they're Hawks. Another ruthless cull will take place next year. Then they'll relaunch in earnest.

They have imminent retirements coming in the form of Burgoyne, Gibson, Hodge and Roughy probably won't make it back. That's a lot of salary cap room right there, on top of Lewis and Mitchell going. Which brings me to the point about their ruthlessness. Clearly, Mitchell and Lewis were not part of their plans for the future. No sentiment. Out they go. My only criticism of their trading is they could've demanded more for Mitchell and they certainly should've demanded more from Melbourne for Lewis. In the end, they would've strengthened their bargaining position over JOM, without the last minute scrambling around. We will have plenty of competition for FA when they come onto the market. Make no mistake, Hawthorn will be a major obstacle in landing one. I wouldn't be surprised if Fyfe and Martin land there in search of a flag.

I think you're falling for the hype too.


The issue isn't that they brought in rubbish players, and not that they didn't get what they wanted - it's that what they wanted is a flawed strategy.

When you are in a position where you are going to lose Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Burgoyne, Lewis, Gibson - you need to realise and accept that you will 'bottom out'. How far you bottom out, is controllable to a degree, but you will bottom out nonetheless.

You just need to accept it. It will happen.

The way you control the length and depth of the bottoming out, is by drafting well as you go.

Hawthorn haven't done this. And no one cared because they were waltzing around winning flags.


In 2013 they picked up Hartung, Siciliy and Garlett with picks 24, 38 and 56.
In 2014 had Pick 31 and pick 49
In 2015 they had picks 19, 22, 44.
In 2016 they have picks 88, 90 and 108.
In 2017 currently, they have no picks in the first 2 rounds.


So whilst they've had Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Gibson and co. running around, they've been able to bring in good players to fill gaps. This season, with Mitchell and Lewis still being 1 & 2 in their B&F, we saw that the likes of Isaac Smith, Hartung, Whitecross, Duryea etc. just aren't exceptional players. They're actually pretty average but have had the luxury of playing alongside legitimate freaks of the modern era.

The draftees listed above have played a couple of games, and been average. That's not to say they won't be any good, but I'd highly doubt they've picked up any superstars there.


So instead of seeing the writing on the wall that when Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Gibson, Burgoyne, Roughead etc. are all gone that they will fall off the pace rapidly and that these players simply aren't replaceable (as we already began to see this season), they've fallen for the trap you've fallen for and they think they can just replace them with recycled players and continue on their merry way.

They can't. And they won't.

Tom Mitchell will have to go from being the 4th or 5th on-baller in a freak midfield, to being number 1. He may succeed, but I guarantee running around with Kennedy, Parker, McVeigh and Hannebury is an easier gig than running around with Hartung, Smith, Shiels and Langford!

O'Meara won't start running for a month Hawthorn have said. So even if he comes back to his best (which just a little reminder was only averaging 21 disposals a week alongside Gary Ablett at his best) it won't be for a while.



So Hawthorn got what they wanted. Granted.

My criticism is that they paid too much for these guys firstly, secondly that they've underrated the players they think they're going to replace with them, and thirdly that trying to replace them 'like for like' is a flawed strategy in the first place.


As I've said before, they should have accepted their fate and gone to the draft.

Exactly the same way Geelong should have last year when they'd started to lose their freak unit. They thought they could replace these guys with Josh Caddy, Rhys Stanley and Lachie Henderson - but you just can't.

Even when they picked up the best player in the comp, the loss of freak players that have been there for a decade was too much handle. We saw that the Guthrie's, Caddy's and Duncan's just aren't up to it. They looked awesome when these superstars of the modern era were leading the way, but when they had to step up and take on those roles themselves - they can't. They've lost Bartel and Enright now also, and Mackie and Taylor aren't far off it either. They're a Selwood or Dangerfield injury away from bottom 4 due to their failure to accept their fate.


Geelong fell for their own hype. Hawthorn have fallen for the same trick.

[Johnny Member]

It's got to be remembered too, that Hawthorn were only 2 wins off 7th spot.


And, they won 5 games by less than a kick. It's a reasonable argument to suggest that the ladder flattered them this season.


If they'd have finished 7th, which isn't a huge stretch to discuss hypothetically - how would their predicament look right now?

[bigred]

They gave away so much to get those players in.

Mitchell is a good player and worth pick 14. Would have been happy if we had got him for pick 10.
O'meara's knee is still a risk IMO.

Next year will be more of the same. They will be trading players out to get back into the draft.

Man if they finish bottom four or five...... lol

[The_Merchant]

Looking at what they have left themselves with for the next two years, you can only assume that they are putting all of their eggs in the free agency basket. They are hoping that the hawthorn "brand" will allow them to keep bringing in free agents to top up.
The issue they may face is that if they don't perform next year, which I think is likely, it gets much harder to attract those free agents searching for a premiership. Look at Deledio, he has taken a pay cut to get to GWS for a shot at a flag. If the Hawks finish 12th next year, players aren't going to be headed there for a shot at a flag.
There are rumours of an investigation of the Hawks recruiting tactics around vickery, will be interesting if anything a comes of that.

[Bluthy]

I don't know why everyone is so cocky about Hawks bottoming out. They have the best coach of the modern era and even possibly the best coach ever. Clarkson has a brilliant system and is always evolving it to stay ahead of the pack despite all their IP leaking out every year in coaches and players. He is the master and unpacking the oppo and stopping their strengths. Even last year with a lot of things going wrong and not playing great footy for big sections of the year they were one kick away from a prelim where they would have got to play their bunnies the Swans.

They have mortgaged themselves to the hilt to get JOM - its unbelievably brave. But there is a reason they did. IF they can get him up and running he is one of the "three players in one" types like Danger, Judd and Ablett. Brutes inside to win ball, speed, strength and smarts to break free of packs and then classy delivery to hit up targets. Suddenly its like having 20 men on the field.

What will be hilarious is if Hawks are up there again and JOM is playing really well, will be everyone scratching there head and saying "Gee they have been lucky and getting lucky umpire decisions and just got JOM at the right time with GC going s*** and boy they were lucky - so much luck" They are being incredibly bold - its fly high or crash. And even if JOM is a bust, they will back themselves to develop internally and their brilliant system to hold up despite a lower calibre of average player - soldier in, soldier out.

[bigred]

Will be interesting to see how this rebuild goes for them. Since they drafted Buddy and Roughy they have not had to face a rebuild like this.
They are well on the front foot however. Remains to be seen how this pans out.

One thing is for sure, they will NOT be the same team without Lewis or Mitchell.

[ace]

Gold Coast was forced to accept a low ball offer from Hawthorn in the O'Meara trade.
Trade relations between Hawthorn and Gold Coast will remain strained for a number of years.
That is a problem for Hawthorn as Gold Coast will continue to turn over high draft pick players.
Players want to move South, Gold Coast gets early draft picks, who then want to move South, repeat, repeat, repeat.
Having a good trade relationship with Gold Coast is valuable but not quantifiable.

But lets look at the price Hawthorn has paid for O'Meara not what Gold Coast received.
Going into this draft Hawthorn had cleared sufficient salary cap space including the trade of Bradley Hill that they claim they could have accommodated Vickery, Tom Mitchell and O'Meara with only the loss of one of Sam Mitchell or Jordan Lewis.
That means Vickery and Tom Mitchell's salaries were covered once Brad Hill was traded away.
That means O'Meara's salary was the factor behind Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis being asked to look at their options.

Now Hawthorn went into this draft with picks 14, 36, 54, 72, 90, 108 and 2017 first rounder intact.
They also had Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Brad Hill.
They lost Brad Hill to accommodate Vickery and Tom Mitchell.
In those trades they lost picks 14 & 52 but gained picks 23 and 57

So they had picks 23, 36, 54, 57, 72, 90 and 2017 rounder intact less pick 52 (yet to be received) plus Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis
They finished with picks 88, 90 & 108
Everything in between is to O'Meara.
That is
2017 1st rounder
pick 23
pick 36
pick 57
pick 72
Sam Mitchell
Jordan Lewis
All for O'Meara and pick 52

We can value the 2016 picks 815 + 502 + 182 + 19 - 246 = 1272 points = pick 12
Now the loss of all those 2016 draft picks does not get Hawthorn out of the draft they will have the last 3 picks in the draft and need to give those players 2 year contracts, they could well be 3 list cloggers.

Bring it all together, O'Meara has cost Hawthorn pick 12 + 2017 first rounder + Sam Mitchell + Jordan Lewis + 3 potential list cloggers + damaged relationship with a valuable source of trade.

[White Winmar]

If we had secured Tom Mitchell and JOM in this trade period, we'd be popping the champagne corks. Try Vickery, not so much, but his best is very handy. I know they gave away a lot to get what they needed, but in the end, as is their way, mission accomplished! They'll rebuild their draft position through trading players who'll be overvalued because they're Hawks. Another ruthless cull will take place next year. Then they'll relaunch in earnest.

They have imminent retirements coming in the form of Burgoyne, Gibson, Hodge and Roughy probably won't make it back. That's a lot of salary cap room right there, on top of Lewis and Mitchell going. Which brings me to the point about their ruthlessness. Clearly, Mitchell and Lewis were not part of their plans for the future. No sentiment. Out they go. My only criticism of their trading is they could've demanded more for Mitchell and they certainly should've demanded more from Melbourne for Lewis. In the end, they would've strengthened their bargaining position over JOM, without the last minute scrambling around. We will have plenty of competition for FA when they come onto the market. Make no mistake, Hawthorn will be a major obstacle in landing one. I wouldn't be surprised if Fyfe and Martin land there in search of a flag.

I think you're falling for the hype too.


The issue isn't that they brought in rubbish players, and not that they didn't get what they wanted - it's that what they wanted is a flawed strategy.

When you are in a position where you are going to lose Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Burgoyne, Lewis, Gibson - you need to realise and accept that you will 'bottom out'. How far you bottom out, is controllable to a degree, but you will bottom out nonetheless.

You just need to accept it. It will happen.

The way you control the length and depth of the bottoming out, is by drafting well as you go.

Hawthorn haven't done this. And no one cared because they were waltzing around winning flags.


In 2013 they picked up Hartung, Siciliy and Garlett with picks 24, 38 and 56.
In 2014 had Pick 31 and pick 49
In 2015 they had picks 19, 22, 44.
In 2016 they have picks 88, 90 and 108.
In 2017 currently, they have no picks in the first 2 rounds.


So whilst they've had Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Gibson and co. running around, they've been able to bring in good players to fill gaps. This season, with Mitchell and Lewis still being 1 & 2 in their B&F, we saw that the likes of Isaac Smith, Hartung, Whitecross, Duryea etc. just aren't exceptional players. They're actually pretty average but have had the luxury of playing alongside legitimate freaks of the modern era.

The draftees listed above have played a couple of games, and been average. That's not to say they won't be any good, but I'd highly doubt they've picked up any superstars there.


So instead of seeing the writing on the wall that when Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Gibson, Burgoyne, Roughead etc. are all gone that they will fall off the pace rapidly and that these players simply aren't replaceable (as we already began to see this season), they've fallen for the trap you've fallen for and they think they can just replace them with recycled players and continue on their merry way.

They can't. And they won't.

Tom Mitchell will have to go from being the 4th or 5th on-baller in a freak midfield, to being number 1. He may succeed, but I guarantee running around with Kennedy, Parker, McVeigh and Hannebury is an easier gig than running around with Hartung, Smith, Shiels and Langford!

O'Meara won't start running for a month Hawthorn have said. So even if he comes back to his best (which just a little reminder was only averaging 21 disposals a week alongside Gary Ablett at his best) it won't be for a while.



So Hawthorn got what they wanted. Granted.

My criticism is that they paid too much for these guys firstly, secondly that they've underrated the players they think they're going to replace with them, and thirdly that trying to replace them 'like for like' is a flawed strategy in the first place.


As I've said before, they should have accepted their fate and gone to the draft.

Exactly the same way Geelong should have last year when they'd started to lose their freak unit. They thought they could replace these guys with Josh Caddy, Rhys Stanley and Lachie Henderson - but you just can't.

Even when they picked up the best player in the comp, the loss of freak players that have been there for a decade was too much handle. We saw that the Guthrie's, Caddy's and Duncan's just aren't up to it. They looked awesome when these superstars of the modern era were leading the way, but when they had to step up and take on those roles themselves - they can't. They've lost Bartel and Enright now also, and Mackie and Taylor aren't far off it either. They're a Selwood or Dangerfield injury away from bottom 4 due to their failure to accept their fate.


Geelong fell for their own hype. Hawthorn have fallen for the same trick.

Given the age and profile of their list, JM, I don't see they had much of an alternative other than to do what they did. Hawthorn won't be bottoming out as some have suggested. Sure, they can't be the same side that took 4 flags in eight seasons, but neither will they go plunging to the bottom. The conventional theory is you rebuild through the draft. Clarkson always seems to be a step ahead. This form of list building is the new paradigm. The swines have been doing it successfully for years, although having an Academy helps. I don't see the hype we are all falling for. The flags speak for themselves. My prediction? Hawthorn too old, too slow, gone. They'll play finals again next year. It's the eighties all over again.

[IanRush]

Conspiracy time. O'Meara has been out for 2 years.... about the same time most sporting drug fans are served.

With the Hawks so keen on him, is it really a physical injury that has stopped O'meara playing for so long?

The Hawks Physio and general Medical team wouldn't be that advanced over everyone else?

Who is the Gold Coast Doctor and Lead Physio, did either of them work at Hawthorn?

is it worth reintroducing Financial Compensation for Player Transfers, as this "ranking and draft system" can still be manipulated it seems.

I still remember the Brett Chalmers photo where he is sitting on the roof, from the early 90s, after Collingwood "warned off" other clubs from drafting Brett.

[saintsRrising]

Given the age and profile of their list, JM, I don't see they had much of an alternative other than to do what they did. Hawthorn won't be bottoming out as some have suggested. Sure, they can't be the same side that took 4 flags in eight seasons, but neither will they go plunging to the bottom. The conventional theory is you rebuild through the draft. Clarkson always seems to be a step ahead. This form of list building is the new paradigm. The swines have been doing it successfully for years, although having an Academy helps. I don't see the hype we are all falling for. The flags speak for themselves. My prediction? Hawthorn too old, too slow, gone. They'll play finals again next year. It's the eighties all over again.

While I do agree that it is the the new paradigm, I don't think that Clarko is at all a step ahead with it as many clubs including the Saints are now full steam ahead with it. The Saints in 2017 will most likely line up each week with more "recycled" players that "grow our owns".

Where I disagree with you is not in the methodology (which is sound enough), but that in the gaining JOM that the total price that they paid for JOM is simply too high.

Hawks In: JOM +68
Traded for: 23 +36 +48 + 66 + 70 + first Hawk's first rounder of 17

Like a poor investor they have jumped into speculating rather than investing! That there is an extra risk with his knees just compounded this.

The Tom trade was good value. = Tick
Vickery serves a need and was free = Tick

But that JOM price was huge. When you add that to the Hawk's youth currently being under-whelming that price is even more.

THE DESTINATION CLUB
Acquiring players like JOM and Tom is not just done in trade week, or the lead up to it. But over most of a year or even more. JOM and Tom will have chosen the Hawks as their destination earlier this year based on viewing them as a good chance of winninga flag with them.
This extra allure will now be gone. Hawks will IMO havea middling year either just making the eight, or finishing just out of it. So yes they will not be a Bottom 4 Club, but neither wil thy be the player magnet that they have been for many years.

Now this is not to say that some players will not still find them to be a attractive club to join, but they will no longer be THE Destination Club that they have been.

2017

With Sam, Hill and Lewis out that is a bigger loss than the gain of JOM, Tom and Vickery (Though long-term it is obviously a plus) . Particularly with Ceglar out as well to negate the gain of getting Vickery's.

The Hawks were excellent with the ball in 2016, as they have been for a while but lacked pace and midfield depth. They had a lot of close games, but only lost one. Meanwhile for 2017 most of those teams looked to have improved whereas the Hawks have gone backwards. This is why I see the Hawks losing more games in 2017. Not bottom 4 losing, but enough where I believe that they will be battling to make the 8.

BEYOND 2017

The Hawks lack mids. Hodge and Burgoyne will be gone too, and while they do not play midfield their loss will bite deep.

No first pick in 2017 already is going to hamper their ability to redress that. Not being seen as being a champion team 2017 will also hurt their ability to attract players by trade or FA.

[minneapolis]

O'Meara is currently not running, which means that knee of his has a long way to go. He won't be ripping it up in 2017. It may be a Nathan Freeman type year for him, building toward 2018. Go and look on the Hawks website and sift through their list. They cannot maintain their current position in the short term. They will slip back a few places in 2017. Mitchell will be good for them, Vickery will just fill a hole, while their two most prolific midfielders from this year are playing elsewhere. Remember, they've basically given up almost two whole draft periods for these three players with no guarantee of off-setting their losses from this year (Mitchell, Hill, Lewis). If they had maintained decent picks in the draft in 2016 & 2017, I would have said it's a win for them. However........

I have been saying it for ages. Vickery is just a finger in the proverbial Hawthorn dyke.

[SaintPav]

HS gave Hawks a top rating while the saints only got a thumbs up