Draft and List Problems

[groupie1]

So, after the presumptive Lynch compo pick, we have 5, 59, 61, etc.

Trout and Bains have left us in a disastrous situation.

Just wondering what the thoughts are?

Any chance of getting CG's first / second pick for a massive bundle of players. (and getting those players to actually go there?) Weller, Armo look like it will happen - but that may get us a pick in the 30s. If we throw in Gilbert, Lonie, Newnes - that's 5 players for one pick - given they have so many inside the first round, if they ask for a priority pick, would they give one away?

Trade Bruce to Freo for a 2nd round pick?

Trade Dunstan & Ross to Essendon for their 1st rounder, and hope to gather a nice bunch of numbers to play with for trade.

It'd be ideal to grab pick 1 and take Lukocious - for membership and even for future leverage if we think he won't stay forever. If Carlton don't want Lukocious, would they give away their pick 1 for McCartin and a couple senior experienced players?

I think they have to trade bold and brave and throw money around and appeal for a priority pick on the grounds of "Ameet Bains rooted our draft position because he was moving to the Scraggers'

Just throwing ideas around guys.

If we did a whole bunch of trades to get deeper into a good draft, I'd trade Billings too, to pile on high draft picks. Start again with a whole raft of new players in at the same time.

[skeptic]

I would say Bruce for a second round pick and Dunstan + Ross for a 1st rounder around 10-12 are both massive losses to us

McCartin and senior experienced players for pick 1!!! Again I don’t see how it helps us. Let’s say u trade Paddy and Steven or Bruce for pick 1... what exactly do you gain?
Paddy is a pick 1... didn’t work out super well for us

I just don’t see it

[MC Gusto]

The blues are going to ask for a PP

[Devilhead]

The blues are going to ask for a PP

If they get it will be end of 1st Round

[Cairnsman]

Trade Bruce Ross and McCartin?

Did I skim over that correctly?

We should change the colors of our jumper while we are at it.

[Saintmatt]

We need to get into the 2nd round somehow (and maybe early 3rd). I would love to find a way to get Dunstan back to SA for either Port or the Crows 2nd rounder. Funnily enough, Essendoom needs an inside mid like oxygen (albeit probably not a poorly skilled one) so, they might be a chance to have interest in Dunstan. We have Ross - he's a much better version of the two so, IMO - Dunstan is expendable and if we could get a 2nd rounder for him I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Maybe you get another 2nd rounder for a package of Gilbert, Mav (& maybe Armo) which again, would be fine by me. Gilbert & Mav are delists for me anyway so, anything we get would be a bonus. Would prefer to keep Armo for leadership (i.e. proper leadership - not whatever Geary supposedly offers)

I'd keep Bruce every day of the week. At least offers flexibility (both ends of the ground). The elephant in the room is Paddy - he's shown a bit but he's a deep forward and not much else (can't ruck) due to fitness. I wouldn't mind him going to CHB and see how he goes there (unlikely due to Richo's 'don't try anything / risk averse' style).

[Beno88]

It seems certain that we'll need to trade our 2019 first round pick this year.

I'd be putting any of Ross, Sinclair, Bruce, Dunstan, Billings, Newnes and Acres on the table for the right price. We need to be aggressive.

Outside of them we have very little trade currency.

[saintbob]

[*]

It seems certain that we'll need to trade our 2019 first round pick this year.

I'd be putting any of Ross, Sinclair, Bruce, Dunstan, Billings, Newnes and Acres on the table for the right price. We need to be aggressive.

Outside of them we have very little trade currency.

Billings,Ross, Acres and Sinclair aren’t going anywhere.

I’d offer up Steven, Dunstan, Bruce, Longer, Newnes, Armitage, Savage, Lonie and see if McCartin gets any interest

[DJ Higgins]

I think the value of the players mentioned above is over stated and we are stuck with them. Who would really take Dunstan, Mav, Gilbo, Lonie or even Paddy for more than a round 3 pick and we would be lucky to get that. Take what we can get even if it is just to free up salary cap space for a future free agent god father offer.

WIth blues and gold coast both after PP we will now get pick 5 for coming third last as Suns and Gold cost play next week. Id love suns to win but that isn't going to happen. If we use that pick to trade for Dan Hanenbery I will lose it. It will be Dom Tyson / Josh Kelly scenario all over again. There is a lot of talent still available at pick 5 this year, unfortunately it will most likely not be an outside mid so take best available as long as it isn't a HBF

List issues can be partially corrected with a few changes imo
1. Billings. Can't kick at goal for love nor money. Simple solution he builds his tank and plays exclusively in the mids next year as other aspects of his game are elite and we don't want to lose him as he will shine at another clubs as he will another one that got away
2. Josh Bruce and Paddy move into defense. Bruce was drafted as a defender and to be honest he had one great season and been very average since. he can play a swing man role when required but we have an old back line that will need some new KPD in the next year or two especially with Gilbo going (hopefully). Paddy should try defense as being a forward is not paying a lot of dividends. What is the worse that happens, it doesn't work out and he then he moves forward again?
3. Sinclair plays as a small forward. He was elite last year but this year he seems to be playing more of a defensive role that doesn't suit his game play.
4. Geary loses the captaincy. He is not in our best 22 a lot of weeks and gets picked due to the c next to his name. This is silly and he is getting on so we can't keep carrying him.
5. Make the call on Hickey Longer and Pierce. We don't need all three especially with Marshall coming along. Trade one out to another team desperate for a ruckman.

[chico2001]

I would not trade Steven...baaaad move.

[saintsRrising]

The blues are going to ask for a PP

Be just our luck. They actually have better young very top end talent than we do.

When we get first pick it is a weak draft. Now that it is a very strong draft if the Blues get a PP and the Suns and extra early pick for Lynch we could be shunted back and like last year end up just outside of pool of players that are more likely be be guns.

With no 2nd or 3rd round picks in this very strong draft we need to get our first pick as early as possible.

[older saint]

If Hannnabry accepts the offer and asks to be traded then to me it will be Melbourne Josh Kelly mark 2.

We would have to trade pick 4 for a couple first rounders ( perhaps Adelaide who have a few) , then send later first rounder to Sydney for Hannabry and perhaps a 3rd rounder ( they need salary relief), sure we end up with Hannebry and say pick 9 , which will guarantee pick 4 ends up being a gun.

priority picks end of first round , although Lynch compensation will see us slip 1 spot.

Tradable - Newness, Dunstan, Longer - probably get late 2nd rounder for Newness and Dunstan , Longer 3rd

Gone - Weller, Wright, Pierce,

Need to keep either Armitage or Gilbert as mentors as we have a vacuum of older players to teach young guys good habits ( can anyone say Reiwoldt, Montagna????)

Move Bruce to CHB or move on as too many big forwards

[groupie1]

I would say Bruce for a second round pick and Dunstan + Ross for a 1st rounder around 10-12 are both massive losses to us

McCartin and senior experienced players for pick 1!!! Again I don’t see how it helps us. Let’s say u trade Paddy and Steven or Bruce for pick 1... what exactly do you gain?
Paddy is a pick 1... didn’t work out super well for us

I just don’t see it

You trade Paddy for Lukocious - that's what you get. You get hope, hype and a potential star.
(I doubt any club would take that, as is, it would need to be more than one player out)

Don't remember suggesting to trade Steven. Again... hysterical response to a post seeking input and suggestions that entirely misread the text.

I'm trying to find what clubs need what. Essen-twats need an inside mid: we have Ross and Dunstan, neither of whom can dispose by foot.

GC and Carlton need - and have openly said they want - big bodies: we have a tonne of mediocre big bodies. Could we pry an early pick from them for a pack of steak knives?

This is what we do - look around and see if we can fulfill someone else's needs for an 'overs' trade.

[groupie1]

I mean... is it just me or should we not be chasing Lukocious with everything we have? And we in the race for Hanebury... let's get them picks to satisfy that.

A handfull of runts to CG for a high pick; trade that on to Sydney for Hanebury;
Trade Paddy and 5 for 1 from Carlton and snare Lukocious
Dunstan and Ross to Essen-twats for Goddard and their 1st round pick.
Throw $$$$$$ at Gaff and tell him he needs to come home and be with his family

[vacuous space]

I wish people would stop talking about our second and third picks like Trout wandered into the village and traded them for magic beans. We traded the second for the Clavarino pick and the third for Austin and a fourth. Even if we paid overs for Clav, it wasn't by a lot and wasn't anywhere near a disaster. We got Oscar into the system a year earlier than anyone we might have taken this year, which has some value. I don't know how anyone could argue with the Austin trade. We moved a late pick down about 20 spots and picked up a guy who looks very much like an AFLer.

A disaster would have been moving our first because we thought we were on the verge of finals. That didn't happen. As long as we keep that top pick, I think we're fine. I don't see any reason to move up. I don't think Lukosius or Walsh is enough better than the next best to give up anything of substance. I wouldn't be a fan of moving down as I think there's a huge dropoff after the first six or seven players. My preference would be to add one of Rankine, Smith or Walsh, but if things break in such a way that those three are gone before we pick, so be it. There's so much rubbish spoken about the Kings on here by the 'midfielder no matter what' types. The Kings are the best KP prospects out of Vic since at least Daniher. None of our KPs are good enough to say we don't need them.

[saintsRrising]

With no 2nd or 3rd round picks in this very strong draft we need to get our first pick as early as possible.

By the wayI did not mean for us trade down, but rather for the Blues not get a PP, and for the GC if they end up below us (which seems likely) to gain a compo pick for Lynch and for the Saints to snag a surprise win over Noth.

I would much rather have pick 3/4 than pick 6.

I will certainly be barracking for GC when they play the Lions. But I would back the Lions to win at present.

[thejiggingsaint]

[*]

It seems certain that we'll need to trade our 2019 first round pick this year.

I'd be putting any of Ross, Sinclair, Bruce, Dunstan, Billings, Newnes and Acres on the table for the right price. We need to be aggressive.

Outside of them we have very little trade currency.

Billings,Ross, Acres and Sinclair aren’t going anywhere.

I’d offer up Steven, Dunstan, Bruce, Longer, Newnes, Armitage, Savage, Lonie and see if McCartin gets any interest

any chance we could trade Richardson as the steak knives ?

[skeptic]

I would say Bruce for a second round pick and Dunstan + Ross for a 1st rounder around 10-12 are both massive losses to us

McCartin and senior experienced players for pick 1!!! Again I don’t see how it helps us. Let’s say u trade Paddy and Steven or Bruce for pick 1... what exactly do you gain?
Paddy is a pick 1... didn’t work out super well for us

I just don’t see it

You trade Paddy for Lukocious - that's what you get. You get hope, hype and a potential star.
(I doubt any club would take that, as is, it would need to be more than one player out)

Don't remember suggesting to trade Steven. Again... hysterical response to a post seeking input and suggestions that entirely misread the text.

I'm trying to find what clubs need what. Essen-twats need an inside mid: we have Ross and Dunstan, neither of whom can dispose by foot.

GC and Carlton need - and have openly said they want - big bodies: we have a tonne of mediocre big bodies. Could we pry an early pick from them for a pack of steak knives?

This is what we do - look around and see if we can fulfill someone else's needs for an 'overs' trade.

You said trade Paddy and an experienced senior player... Steven would be an example of what to give to get even remotely what you’ve suggested you want.
It’s hardly a hysterical response.

The problem with your post is that you’re making bad deals... paying either way overs or not enough.

[BenLong#21]

We really dont have much leverage.
Obviously we use pick 5 in the draft unless by some miracle we can use it on Whitfield or Shiel.
After that - what can we trade? Dunny maybe. Bruce maybe. Neither would get us a top 20 pick at this stage.

(p.s Kelly is now considered even better than he was last year - he is now worth easily MORE than a pick 1).

[Ajantis]

How about st.kilda trade no -one and us the current playing list and give them moretime to mature.
There are so many good players from the past who finally matured and became good players.
We dont need rejects or new blood because we been doing it for centuries and still dont have a 2nd prem.

[Yorkeys]

Lessons/observations based on the last trading blitz: trading for tradings sake didn't work. Our Club's playing stock as a whole has low currency but there are probably hidden gems in the VFL side to cut and polish. Successful clubs move on "older" players before they lose currency and their performances drop too much. AR has biases against some players and about playing untried at AFL level players as well as biases towards some that have proven they can't take us up the ladder, all of which is a big institutional problem. The relatively high number of poor standard players, injuries and poor coaching means a number of good players play below potential and we may not fully appreciate them (Billings? Acres? Sinclair?). There is no quick fix or correlation between number of trades and improvement - quality and having a plan seems to matter. Hopefully the new list manager and Simon can minimise ARs biases. Hopefully we get a fit list. Hopefully we gracefully retire Gilbo and Armo (can't see them being tradeable); Nathan Brown becomes the understudy as a sign more athletic players are developing. Goddard is either given a chance with us or traded/cut loose. Billy L to go (I doubt he is tradeable, maybe Carlton). Offer up Dunstan, out of contract Lonie and Weller but in any case stop playing them regularly in the firsts. Take first round pick as it comes up. Trade in available value adding talent as the opportunity arises being selective based on a plan. Hope the new assistants can counter balance the dead hand of AR in terms of team selection, positioning and tactics (but who would come and will AR be able to chose clones - be strong Simon)

[groupie1]

I would say Bruce for a second round pick and Dunstan + Ross for a 1st rounder around 10-12 are both massive losses to us

McCartin and senior experienced players for pick 1!!! Again I don’t see how it helps us. Let’s say u trade Paddy and Steven or Bruce for pick 1... what exactly do you gain?
Paddy is a pick 1... didn’t work out super well for us

I just don’t see it

You trade Paddy for Lukocious - that's what you get. You get hope, hype and a potential star.
(I doubt any club would take that, as is, it would need to be more than one player out)

Don't remember suggesting to trade Steven. Again... hysterical response to a post seeking input and suggestions that entirely misread the text.

I'm trying to find what clubs need what. Essen-twats need an inside mid: we have Ross and Dunstan, neither of whom can dispose by foot.

GC and Carlton need - and have openly said they want - big bodies: we have a tonne of mediocre big bodies. Could we pry an early pick from them for a pack of steak knives?

This is what we do - look around and see if we can fulfill someone else's needs for an 'overs' trade.

You said trade Paddy and an experienced senior player... Steven would be an example of what to give to get even remotely what you’ve suggested you want.
It’s hardly a hysterical response.

The problem with your post is that you’re making bad deals... paying either way overs or not enough.

No, I didn't.

Christ.....

Here it is, copied and pasted:

" If Carlton don't want Lukocious, would they give away their pick 1 for McCartin and a couple senior experienced players? "

I SAID nothing.
I ASKED.

And 'a couple senior experienced players' does not equal Jack Steven. We have a shitload of players who could be described as senior and experienced.

Carlton - openly - wants a Melbourne-esque rebuild of getting senior bodies into the group.
Gold Coast is the same.

Clubs in those positions do tend to pay overs: think Scully and Ward (as he was when he was contracted), think L Hodge, think Stephen Powell.

If I were managing the Carlton or GC list, I would absolutely take a parcel of experienced players for a high draft pick, especially if I had multiple sub-20 picks. I'm looking for blokes to help the kids, and to create a culture around which kids want to stay. I'm looking to be competitive week-to-week by padding the list; knowing, historically and more so no with FA, that sustained lack of success makes it hard to retain good players and hard to attract them.

[groupie1]

Lessons/observations based on the last trading blitz: trading for tradings sake didn't work. Our Club's playing stock as a whole has low currency but there are probably hidden gems in the VFL side to cut and polish. Successful clubs move on "older" players before they lose currency and their performances drop too much. AR has biases against some players and about playing untried at AFL level players as well as biases towards some that have proven they can't take us up the ladder, all of which is a big institutional problem. The relatively high number of poor standard players, injuries and poor coaching means a number of good players play below potential and we may not fully appreciate them (Billings? Acres? Sinclair?). There is no quick fix or correlation between number of trades and improvement - quality and having a plan seems to matter. Hopefully the new list manager and Simon can minimise ARs biases. Hopefully we get a fit list. Hopefully we gracefully retire Gilbo and Armo (can't see them being tradeable); Nathan Brown becomes the understudy as a sign more athletic players are developing. Goddard is either given a chance with us or traded/cut loose. Billy L to go (I doubt he is tradeable, maybe Carlton). Offer up Dunstan, out of contract Lonie and Weller but in any case stop playing them regularly in the firsts. Take first round pick as it comes up. Trade in available value adding talent as the opportunity arises being selective based on a plan. Hope the new assistants can counter balance the dead hand of AR in terms of team selection, positioning and tactics (but who would come and will AR be able to chose clones - be strong Simon)

Good post and some good points.

What I might debate here is that Pelkan and Bains had a plan... cut the spend by letting NDS and Goddard go, and go sub-20 picks three drafts running. We've now got those 9 players - plus another 2 - and don't seem to be going anywhere, and it is likely due to exactly what you point out: too many poor players, good players underperforming, selection bias.

Given your diagnosis, which is I think probably largely correct, I think the plan DOES require aggressively trading.

Let's assume a healthy, competitive, premiership-contending list is 65% good and above players, 15% backup/depth players, 20% young, in-development players... we don't have that. Our split is more like 5% / 70% / 25%

So I like our young player list, but we need top end talent - and in a hurry.

For what its worth, I also think that when you have an all-time great on your list - as we did Reiwoldt - YOU GO FOR THE FLAG UNTIL HE RETIRES. The bottomout/cleanout during Reiwoldt's career, especially as it came just as FA was introduced, was the most strategically inept decision I've ever come across. We're not borrowing from success-sustaining clubs like Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn. And what we have done has not worked.