Assessing the Saints & Looking at our Problems...

[kaos theory]

Here is my assessment of where we are at & the issues we face. I think our problems fall in 3 areas:

• The quality of the list AND how well suited it is for the style of play at the time is significantly down today, compared with the 2004 & 2005 period.
• The competition is overall at a higher level in 08 than it was in the 04 & 05 period
• The development of our football department has lagged in a number of key areas over the last 4 years behind many other clubs (e.g. recruiting, player development, injury management). I realize, a lot of this is been now addressed, under the new administration, but it will take a few years to get the full benefits.

There may be issues with game styles/plans, but I honestly don’t think that is our main issue. I think blaming simply tactics, etc. is too simplistic and misses the bigger issues. I discuss the bigger issues below:

QUALITY OF THE LIST:

Look at a comparison between the quality of the lists in our best recent years (2004 & 2005) and now (2008). I have rated them overall, based on the quality of the players and how well they were suited to the style of play at the time.

04 & 05: Key Backs
Maxy (3-4 years younger)
Penny (Key defender for big forward)
Goose (pre leg break form was very good)
‘QB’, supporting sweepers and small defenders:
Aussie Jones (good decision maker, pace excellent delivery and set up of plays)
Goddard, Baker, Voss, L. Fisher
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B+

08: Key Backs
Maxy (older, slower)
Goose (yet to play well since leg break)
S. Fisher (quality player)
‘QB’, Supporting sweepers and small defenders:
Gram (good, but not the quality of Jones in delivery or decision-making)
Goddard, Geary, L. Fisher
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B
-------------------------------------
04 & 05: Key Mids & Running players
Hayes (pre knee reco & at his best)
Ball (pre OP & at his best)
Dal Santo
Harvey (3-4 years younger)
Supporting Mids (Inside & outside players):
Thommo (quality inside player)
Montagna
Peckett (Quality outside, great decision-maker and delivery)
Black (super delivery, pace & aggression)
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: A+

08: Key Mids & Running players
Hayes (post knee, seems to have lost a little, though still very good)
Ball (at best 70% the player he was prior to OP)
Dal Santo
Montagna (improved, now also inside work)
Supporting Mid (Inside & outside players):
Harvey (3-4 years older, not what he once was)
X. Clark
Fiora
CJ
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B
-----------------------------------------
04 & 05: Forwards
G-Train (3-4 years younger & at his best)
Reiwoldt (kicking straight & full of confidence)
Milne (at his best and well suited to the style of play)
Hamill (super competitor, powerful forward)
Kosi (supporting role)
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: A+

08: Forwards
G-Train (older, slower)
Reiwoldt (poor kicking & lower confidence)
Milne (has not adjusted well to new styles of play)
Kosi (lacking some confidence)
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B

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Rucks:
I would say the potential is slightly better now, but not much better:

04 & 05:
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B

08:
- Overall rating for the style of play at the time: B+

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Therefore our list quality for 04 & 05 was significantly better than it is today. I think we have constantly overrated our list (myself included). We look at the names, rather than their current physical condition, and the style of play and competition we come up against.


IMPROVEMENT IN COMPETITION

Look at a comparison of the quality of the competition in 04, versus today. I think that in 04 & 05 there were many more teams going through a bottoming out & rebuilding process, compared with today. The point is that the competition level is significantly higher today. I made some comparisons, obviously it’s not an exact science, but I think the point is valid.
The rating approach I used is:
5 – Dominating team, enormous talent & playing with confidence
4 – Quality team and on the way to being a dominating team, or on the wane after once being a dominating team
3 – Good team, can perform very well at times, either stagnant, or on the way down or up
2 – Average, going down or rebuilding
1 – Poor: At the bottom, early in rebuilding phase

04
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 4
Sydney 3
West Coast 3
Port Power 4
Geelong 4
Melbourne 3
Bombers 3
Collingwood 2
Hawthorne 1
Richmond 1
Bulldogs 3
Freo 2
Carlton 1
North 2

Total Competitive score: 39

08
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 3
Sydney 3
West Coast 3
Port Power 3
Geelong 5
Melbourne 1
Bombers 3
Collingwood 4
Hawthorne 4
Richmond 2
Bulldogs 3
Freo 3
Carlton 1
North 3

Total Competitive score: 44

Things are tougher now, that is a fact of the tight competition, so we have to work extra hard in other areas to get ahead, ie. the footy deprtment.

DEVELOPMENT OF OUR FOOTBALL DEPARTMENT

I don’t want to go through all the detailed arguments here, but we have suffered from years of neglect in the footy dept. Specifically:
- Recruiting: The number and quality of staff AND the approaches and systems they use to uncover talent, in relation to the way the game is developing on the field.
- Player Development: The ability to get the best out of each player on the list. A system to recognize the deficiencies and a system to improve on them (Collingwood leads the way here…)
- Injury Management: Effective prevention and management programs

I’m not discussing actual coaching GT vs. RL, because there are have been more significant issues in the footy department. They are been addressed now (through the cahnge of admin), but it will take time before we see the full benefits.

[saintsRrising]

A very good post KT.

I enjoyed it.,,,,but yes the nalysis makes sobering reading.


Don't forget about Powelly in that earlier midfield though.

As a comment on your post I would add that I think the lack of the development of our midfield group is a key reason in why we are finding it hard to compete.

We have lost Powell, Thommo, Pecket and Black with harvey now only an average player rather thana star.......but only have had really Joey come on....plus the recently aquired Schneider who looks to be a valuable addtion but not a star.

Fiora is tereabouts, but is a fringe player.

X has not come on..he looks good some games, but then goes missing.


Add to this that the midfield is probably more important today and our problem area is made worse.

This is due to:
*midfield rotations having expanded the number of midfielders that you need
*the greater running today making the midfield or supermidfield more imporant.

Compound the above that the in terms of goal scoring power that you expect your key forwards to kick less and your midfield group to kick more goals (which the saints midfield clearly does not)....and you get the cumulative result that our midfield group is simply not up with the competitions best anymore.


Unfortunately in the next year there does not seem to be ot of light at the end of the tunnel as only Armo looks ready to emerge....though CJ the elevated rookie shows good promise but doubtful skills.

Stevens looks likey but is an underage kid...so give him 2 or more seasons at Casey first. Eljay is just too eary to say....and Howard at present would seem to have been the right idea (ie a quick player) but the wrong player picked.

Most teams seem to have pacey skilled mids added to their list over the last 4 years......the Saints have not unless you count Fiora.

[kaos theory]

Don't forget about Powelly in that earlier midfield though

True, forgot about him SR. He was very important many times during that period.

Good analysis as well.

I think the interesting thing about where the modern game is going is that you can counter pure pace to some level with winning contested balls, and quick & effective decision-making. ie. a good decision-maker can move the ball more effectively than a player with just pace & poor decsion-making...

It will be interesting (or depressing) to see how we counter the pure pace of other teams with our skill & decision-making. But as discussed we need to get more quality into our mids.

[True Blue Sainter]

Good post Kaos.

I think that overall, Ross Lyon is a more astute coach than Grant Thomas, and seems to have a better understanding of the game. However, in that 2004 season, GT seemed to place a lot more faith in his players - he backed them against their opponents to attack and create opportunities. Only Bakes would really be applying a hard tag. Now RL is getting Blake and L Fisher in at so many centre bounces, that it's virtually impossible to get a clearance.

I also believe that the list we have now is as good as it was in 2004. For us to see a more attractive style of football, and probably better results, RL simply needs to invest a little belief in his players to beat their opponents. As Allan Jeans said, the team that wins in the most positions more often than not wins the game. Remember the flair and hardness exhibited by the side in 2004? Sure, Powelly had no speed and wasn't exactly a ball magnet, but he was tough as nails and the opposition midfielders would sure as hell wake up with bruises the next day. Who's taken that role over now that Bakes is suspended?

This side needs a more attacking mentality (Back your players Ross!) and to apply more defensive pressure in the MIDFIELD and up FORWARD to prevent swift counterattacks. Then we can build from there.

[groupie1]

dude
that juxtaposition between our list then and now vs competitive level in the game was outstanding. really well done.
I'm not questioning your methodology, but I think there are a few holes in the post:
Hayes is no worse a player than he was, IMO
Nor is Max when he's fit - pace has never been key and isn't now (and I'm not sure he;s lost any - but could be wrong)
Montagna is a better player than Black was - different, but I think a bit more damaging
Gilbert is faster than Voss
You're right about Jones vs Gram
Goddard is a better player now than then, though
And different players I know, but I'd choose S Fisher over Penny
I'd argue the Back is marginally better, if for no other reason they have greater average speed (Fisher, Mac, Gram, Gilbert, BJ vs Voss, Jones, Mac, Penny, BJ) - Fisher Gram Gilbert beats Voss Jones Penny
obviously the concern is the shape Mac will return in

I think, based on your methodology, the question mark lies over that - Mac's ability to get back to where he was - and Ball, Dal, X and Raph - in my mind the 4 keys to Saint success.
If Ball 08 can become Ball 04; if X can add another element to the mids (and if he can he's potentially better than Peckett); if Dal can become, well, the Dal he should; if Raph can become a proper utility that achieves his potential
AND if, by getting these changes, we end up losing L Fish and Blake and will naturally need to change game style - I think there's a difference between accountability and defensively minded


but your posting was great

[rodgerfox]

We were a better side in 05 than in 04.

That was the year we missed the chance - due solely to injuries.

When drawing comparison, I think that's the year we should be looking at.

Penny is the biggest loss I think. Very closely followed by Hamill. But, if we look at the 05 year Hamill didn't play finals and Penny was on one leg.

In 04, we jumped the competition and win 10 straight. When it got fair dinkum and the good sides started their runs, we came back to the pack. We were still in the top 4 sides in the comp, but Brisbane and Port were easily the best 2.

In 05 we were the best side. With West Coast a close second.

In 06, we slipped back to being in the top 4 sides of the comp - a pretty good effort considering our injury list throughout the year.

In 07, we weren't in the top 8 sides of the comp.

This year, who knows?