Last spot in the 8. We are favourites to claim it!!

[Richter]

IMO only 1 spot left in the 8 up for grabs. 3 teams in the hunt.

North on 5.5 wins, Saints 5 wins, Port 4 wins (I don't believe that the Blues will last the distance)

I thought it might be useful to put each times games next to each other..

Our games.....................North games..................Port games

12 Sydney....................Fremantle...................Geelong
13 Fremantle................Hawthorn....................Richmond
14 Kangaroos...............St Kilda......................Western Bulldogs
15 Carlton....................Port...........................North
16 Hawthorn.................Collingwood...............Adelaide
17 West Coast..............Melbourne..................Fremantle
18 Port Adelaide...........Lions..........................St Kilda
19 Collingwood.............Bulldogs.....................Carlton
20 Fremantle...............Carlton.......................Collingwood
21 Adelaide.................Geelong......................Melbourne
22 Essendon................Port............................North

A few points.....

- North and Port play each other twice. In the last round they play each other! Good for us.

- We play both teams. MUST WIN games. Real 8 pointers.

- If we assume that teams beat the teams currently beneath them and lose against those below (excluding the games North/Saints/Port play against each other then.... Saints win 5 lose 4...... North win 3 lose 5..... Port win 4 lose 4

- We only play ONE of the top 3, Port 2/3 and Roos 3/3.
- We play 7 games in Melbourne, North have 6 games in Melbourne, Port have 6 games in Adelaide

- We are a good chance in 3 of our interstates trips - 2 games in Perth and the Roos in the Gold Coast.

-Roos games outside Melbourne are mostly tough ones - Us, Lions, Port, Cats and their Melbourne games include vs Dogs and Hawks.

- Port percentage is 99.63, Saints is 97.75 - that's less than 20 points.

Conclusions

- We have the best draw Roos the toughest.

- 11 wins may be enough to be in the last 8 this year.

- It could come down to percentage - those final quarters comeback when we piled on 6 and 7 goals against the Lions and Bulldogs might have seemed like pyhrric efforts, but they might mean the difference at the end of the season between squeezing into 8th spot or not.

- Those games against North and Port are vital. If we win both then we are in pole position. If we lose both it makes it hard for us but still not impossible. If North or Port lose 2/3, then it is absolute curtains for that losing team.

[iwantmeseats]

Really, what is the point in scraping into 8th. Means I have to pay big $$ to see us slide out in week one. Better off not making it so the heat comes ON , down on everyone down there.

[Richter]

Hmmmmm..... what's the point? Well the point is it is surely better to be 8th and have a chance - than 9th and no chance. Difference would only be 1 draft choice even if we are bowled out in the first week of finals.

If we make finals then we will have had to get a run of form - after the hawthorn game we could conceivably finish the season 4.2.

Pies might finish 5th. We can definitely beat them - should have done a few weeks ago. Suddenly we're in a 2nd QF. Anything could happen from there......

[iwantmeseats]

Well I admire your outlook. Unfortunately we havent had ANY form since the 05 season.

[quidnunc]

A positive poster!

You've certainly brought to my attention something I wasn't aware of and I completely agree that it does appear we have a favourable draw over our two competitors for that eighth spot.

So .... if the Saints extract the digit and all players play to their ability .... it's not all gloom for 2008 just yet.

[Saints Premiers 2008]

whils it would be nice to make the 8 - our only real aim would be to do some damage and take out teams that might have a chance of winning

being 'nice' to make it sums it up really

taking out teams sums it up once more...

[plugger66]

Unless we are going to get the first 3-4 picks in the draft then of course it is better to make the 8 than not make it. If you are in the finals anything could happen. Of course it is highly unlikely we would go anywhere but coming 9-12 means we are definately not going anywhere.

[Stephen Theodore]

Great to see such a positive post.

[BigMart]

We can still mix it with the best....for periods

Collingwood - in it for most of the game, could of easily won..

Bulldogs - the have flogged us for five quarters, we have flogged them in three...

Geelong - Stayed with them for a half....all over them early..

Brisbane - Smashed us there....but we competed in the last quarter, and outplayed them..

Adelaide and Hawthorn - we have not played, but beat them both in the run home last season..

Up and running we can mix it wit the best....but we look like an untuned V8 atm..

[spiral2]

those final quarters comeback when we piled on 6 and 7 goals against the Lions and Bulldogs might have seemed like pyhrric efforts

what a great word! nice to see someone on here with a decent vocab, omg!

points off for spelling though, it's pyrrhic according to my shabby research

for those who didn't bother looking it up, this is what I trawled from the net

= an ancient Greek dance imitating the motions of warfare

or

= of or relating to or resembling Pyrrhus or his exploits (especially his sustaining staggering losses in order to defeat the Romans)

saints season in a nutshell, thanks for the education Richter

...wonder who our Romans are?

[st_Trav_ofWA]

if there is a chance for 8th spot you would have to aim for it once your in the finals anything can happen first round you play the 5th ranked side that isnt an impossibility to win then the next week you play the losing top four team and quiet often they get the yips and go out straight sets so hey presto your in a prelim ....

[congorozides]

analyse the draw all your like. but port and north are both better football teams than us. so we will miss out.

[Richter]

analyse the draw all your like. but port and north are both better football teams than us. so we will miss out.

Congo I agree that they are. But that alone does not determine who will finish in the 8. Look at the ladder of seasons' past.... Collingwood continually finish higher up on the ladder than their strength as a football team ought to direct. Why? IMO because of their better draw.

Remember 2004-5? We finished behind interstate clubs - who have a much bigger home advantage than Melbourne clubs - and we played a coupe of home games in Tassie. With a better draw (not looking to blame anyone in particular for this) we would have finished higher up the ladder and finished with potentially a high QF rather than having to go interstate.

If you believe that the final ladder directly reflects who is the better/worse team you are naive IMO.

I repeat, I do not believe that we are as good as North or Port - but looking at the draw we don't have to be. We have probably a 1.5 game advantage over North and 1 game advantage over Port.

Anyway just thought I'd try to take a less emotion-charged view of the second half of the season.

(Thanks for the spelling lesson spiral2! my classical education better than my english language! )

[desertsaint]

analyse the draw all your like. but port and north are both better football teams than us. so we will miss out.

Congo I agree that they are. But that alone does not determine who will finish in the 8.

Exactly - a major problem with the current number of teams but could be rectfied a little if the afl ensures every team played every other at least 3 times in 2 seasons. They also should ensure equal H & A games and interstate games over the same 2 year period.

BUT the afl isn't interested in equity - it bows only to the dollar, and hence gives certain teams a lot of advantages. The situation is unfair and absurd but the poorer clubs don't complain too loudly for fear of losing funding.

And with new clubs coming in this situation will only get worse. Even with 12 teams i don't believe the current afl would create fair draws - money would always take precedence.

And sometimes the uneven draw works in our favour - so yes we could continue to play more poorly than north and port yet make the 8!

[my les foote]

Really, what is the point in scraping into 8th. Means I have to pay big $$ to see us slide out in week one. Better off not making it so the heat comes ON , down on everyone down there.

You can stay at home and slag off at them from behind a keyboard while the SUPPORTERS go to the game

[twirlyhair]

IMO only 1 spot left in the 8 up for grabs. 3 teams in the hunt.

North on 5.5 wins, Saints 5 wins, Port 4 wins (I don't believe that the Blues will last the distance)

I thought it might be useful to put each times games next to each other..

Our games.....................North games..................Port games

12 Sydney....................Fremantle...................Geelong
13 Fremantle................Hawthorn....................Richmond
14 Kangaroos...............St Kilda......................Western Bulldogs
15 Carlton....................Port...........................North
16 Hawthorn.................Collingwood...............Adelaide
17 West Coast..............Melbourne..................Fremantle
18 Port Adelaide...........Lions..........................St Kilda
19 Collingwood.............Bulldogs.....................Carlton
20 Fremantle...............Carlton.......................Collingwood
21 Adelaide.................Geelong......................Melbourne
22 Essendon................Port............................North

A few points.....

- North and Port play each other twice. In the last round they play each other! Good for us.

- We play both teams. MUST WIN games. Real 8 pointers.

- If we assume that teams beat the teams currently beneath them and lose against those below (excluding the games North/Saints/Port play against each other then.... Saints win 5 lose 4...... North win 3 lose 5..... Port win 4 lose 4

- We only play ONE of the top 3, Port 2/3 and Roos 3/3.
- We play 7 games in Melbourne, North have 6 games in Melbourne, Port have 6 games in Adelaide

- We are a good chance in 3 of our interstates trips - 2 games in Perth and the Roos in the Gold Coast.

-Roos games outside Melbourne are mostly tough ones - Us, Lions, Port, Cats and their Melbourne games include vs Dogs and Hawks.

- Port percentage is 99.63, Saints is 97.75 - that's less than 20 points.

Conclusions

- We have the best draw Roos the toughest.

- 11 wins may be enough to be in the last 8 this year.

- It could come down to percentage - those final quarters comeback when we piled on 6 and 7 goals against the Lions and Bulldogs might have seemed like pyhrric efforts, but they might mean the difference at the end of the season between squeezing into 8th spot or not.

- Those games against North and Port are vital. If we win both then we are in pole position. If we lose both it makes it hard for us but still not impossible. If North or Port lose 2/3, then it is absolute curtains for that losing team.

Great! With 8 out of 16 it means bugger all to make the finals!! This team needs to rebuild...we need decent dratf picks...better to lose and go down than tay somewhere in the middle and go nowhere..thats the reality of this comp. I'm afraid....