For the discerning Saint

[Moccha]

I have been thinking a bit more about the possible relocation of the Saints to the Gold Coast. For my money it would be a good move and would probably net us a flag within the next decade.

At the moment there are 10 Vic teams and 6 interstate teams. The AFL has made no secret about wanting to add two expansion teams in Qld and NSW, giving it two teams in each of WA, SA, Qld and NSW. More local rivalries, more teams playing relevant games across the weekend = more blanket television coverage. It's all about the TV.

Ideally the AFL would like to have a 14-team comp with each team playing each other twice for 26 rounds, making it a 32-week / eight-month season (as opposed to the current 28 weeks / seven months). I reckon this is another reason why the AFL is seeking to reduce physical contact in the game, it is wanting the players' bodies to come up week after week.

However, the AFL can't relocate/merge/fold four Victorian clubs in one go, or even in quick succession. So there would need to be a few seasons where the AFL retained 16 teams despite having both Gold Coast and Western Sydney in the competition.

So two Victorian clubs need to go immediately (prior to 2010).

I think the AFL clubs for the 2010 season will look something like this:

Victorian Clubs (8)
Carlton Blues - Docklands Stadium
Collingwood Magpies - MCG
Essendon Bombers - Docklands Stadium
Geelong Cats - Docklands Stadium / Kardinia Park
Hawthorn Hawks - MCG / York Park
Melbourne Demons - MCG
Richmond Tigers - MCG
NorthWest Bucks - Docklands Stadium

Interstate Clubs (8)
Sydney Swans (NSW) - SCG
West Sydney Spiders (NSW) - Stadium Australia
Brisbane Lions (Qld) - 'Gabba
Gold Coast Saints (Qld) - Carrara
Adelaide Crows (SA) - Football Park
Port Adelaide Power (SA) - Football Park
Fremantle Dockers (WA) - Subiaco Oval
West Coast Eagles (WA) - Subiaco Oval

There would eight Victorian teams and eight interstate teams. The new interstate teams would Gold Coast Saints (relocated St Kilda) and West Sydney Spiders (a newly created NSW team). The new Victorian team would be the NorthWest Bucks, a merger between North and Footscray (I went with "Bucks" as a male kangaroo, you can go with Roodogs or whatever, it doesn't really matter).

By relocating to the Gold Coast St Kilda would be basing itself in one of the fastest growing areas in Australia. It would need to set up an immediate affiliation with the local feeder QAFL club, the Southport Sharks. It would also need to put a lot of money upfront into developing the training facilities at Carrara (with the AFL's assistance, of course).

As the second Queensland club, St Kilda would be guaranteed two matches against Brisbane each year, which would be promoted as the "local derby", would sell out the 'Gabba and would achieve record TV ratings for Queensland, thus ensuring the club's future medium-term future. The club could also develop a local "leagues club" with links to tourism and casino money.

The new club would be similar to the "merger" between Brisbane and Fitzroy; the club would retain the colours red, white and black and the Saints mascot, but would be known as "Gold Coast" with all references to St Kilda removed, save for "STKFC" on the rear top of the jumper and the shield and fortius quo fidelius placed somewhere on the playing strip. I suspect the jumper will be predominantly white, similar to the Southport jumper but with the addition of red, so as to minimise any potential clashes with existing team jumpers (the team would need a predominanly black clash strip for away games against the Swans).

As far as playing stocks go, the new club would need to take only the absolute cream of current Saints players as well as a couple of youngsters: Hayes (30 at commencement of 2010 season), Riewoldt (27), Fisher (27) Dal Santo (26), Ball (25), Goddard (24), McEvoy (20) plus young Queenslanders Gilbert (23) and Armitage (21). Maybe Eddy, Allen and Geary depending on how they come on over the next 12 months.

Koschitzke and Montagna to be traded for first or early second round draft picks.

Trade for players aged 23-27 or second/third round draft picks
Maguire
L Fisher
X Clarke
Baker
Attard
Birss
Gram
Schneider (back to Sydney!)
McQualter

Delist
Fiora
R Clarke
Blake
Jones
Miles
Rix
Dempster
C Gardiner
Milne
Haretuku
Steven
Connors
Chivers
Ferguson
Van Rheenen

Retire
Harvey
Hudghton
King
M Gardiner
Gehrig

With AFL draft concessions for an expansion team, Gold Coast (with the trade of Koschitzke and Montagna) should be able to get three first round and two second round draft picks for the 2009 National AFL Draft. Using those picks in 2001, we picked up Ball, X Clarke, Dal Santo and Maguire. Using those picks in 2001, Hawthorn picked up Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell. Using those picks in 2004, Hawthorn picked up Roughead, Franklin and Lewis. If the 2009 draft is strong enough, Gold Coast can set itself up nicely.

About a dozen current players, five high draft picks, five trades in aged 23-27 (guys like Sherman or Drummond or Vince), four lower draft picks and a nice share of the Queensland development zone. This would make up a playing group that would be expected to play finals within three seasons and possibly win a premiership within five. That's within the playing careers of all of our retained players except Hayes, who would likely retire within three years of the new team coming in to the AFL.

The Gold Coast team would play 11 home games in Queensland (at Carrara or the 'Gabba ... might have to play at the Gabba for the first two seasons while Carrara is redeveloped). The remaining 11 games would comprise one away derby against Brisbane, one trip to each of WA and SA, two trips to NSW and six trips to Victoria. As an interstate club Gold Coast could expect to regularly play Hawthorn at York Park and Geelong at Kardinia Park. It's possible Gold Coast might only experience four games at the MCG (Melbourne and Richmond) and Docklands Stadium (Carlton and NorthWest) over the course of a 22-round home and away season; however, it is more likely that the AFL would schedule five games at those venues, with one game per season against Geelong at Kardinia Park or Hawthorn at York Park.

Let's say for the purposes of illustration that the draft was strong enough, and Gold Coast drafted well enough, to pick players of the calibre of those I mentioned earlier. A possible Round 1 2012 team might look like this. Drafted players in bold and ages and estimated games in brackets.

B: Ladson type (20)(20) Fisher (29)(160) Drummond (29)(100)
HB: Gilbert (25)(75) Allen (24)(60) Goddard (26)(180)
C: Eddy (24)(45) Dal Santo (28) (200) Mitchell type (21)(15)
HF: Sherman (25)(130) Riewoldt (29) (210) Vince (29)(90)
F: Lewis type (20)(35) Franklin type (22)(30) Roughead type (22)(20)
R: McEvoy (22)(50) Armitage (23)(85) Ball (27)(180)

Hayes (32)(250) Geary (23)(70) Rosa type (20)(30) Deluca type (22)(15)

Age 18-22: 8
Age 23-27: 8
Age 28+: 6

0-50 games: 9
51-150 games: 7
151+ games: 6

Average age: 24.5 years
Average games: 93

Remember, that average age is for 2012, the third season in the comp. Estimated games based on St Kilda / Gold Coast not playing finals for the next four seasons. By the time of the 2012 grand final, the average games played for that team would be 118. Given that 23-24 years and about 100 games experience average is considered to be "ideal" for winning a flag, I reckon that 2012 side could expect to finish top 4 and, with a home prelim, play off in a grand final.

In order to get this happening St Kilda would need to trade Koschitzke, Montagna, Maguire, Clarke, Gram immediately while they have value and pick up a few kids in the 2008 Draft OR pick up proven players such as Drummond and Vince, then play them throughout 2009. The Saints should finish bottom 4 in 2009 and with further AFL draft concessions could pick up another crop in the 2009 Draft prior to Gold Coast's first season in 2010. This would elevate the average games player but would also elevate average age - this could be alleviated somewhat by retiring Hayes and trading for players under 23 (instead of Vince and Drummond) over the next couple of trade periods.

I'm prepared for any backlash so bring it on

[The_Dud]

St Kilda should and will stay in Victoria, where it belongs

the idea of moving to the Gold Coast is ridiculous

[my les foote]

This is funnier than the one about the Saints winning the premiership in New Delhi

[Moccha]

We'll see what happens in 5 yrs

[midas_touch]

There are at least two teams that will be more likely to relocate over us.

[desertsaint]

Or we can wait it out until the roos and bulldogs have relocated - yes they would be more successful financially and possibly on the field - but without a true soul!

If they don't relocate then they are in all likelihood gone

The remaining Vic based clubs - including us - would also be stronger and the comp would be more equitable (altho 'the filth' would still somehow manage 18 home games a year).

[kaos theory]

I'm prepared for any backlash so bring it on

Ok...

You have just outlined the recipe to dissolve & distroy the st.kilda football club.

Why don't you ask us to cut out our hearts instead?

The team I loyally supported all my life is not called 'gold cost'. If this rediculous proposition we to occur (which it won't), then I will not follow any afl team, and move on to other interests.

The is nothing 'discerning' in this, just madness.

[Solar]

over mine and most of the other 30k+ members dead bodies.....

[St DAC]

Sorry Moccha, not for me.

[iwantmeseats]

Moocha my man, that is just outrageous!! What are you on? No true saints fan, NONE of em, would ever want that. Ever!

I just cant comprehend how you would want your team in that situation?

[plugger66]

How long did it take to write that rubbish. I just wasted 3 minutes of my life I will not get back but you must have wasted a couple of hours. Now stop smoking that stuff and have a good nights sleep and re read what you wrote tomorrow when you are straight and then write an apology for wasting all our time.

Have a good nights sleep.

[joffaboy]

Good idea moccha.

Saints should relocate the GC.

The competition is so tainted and corrupted by Demetriou and Anderson favouring the interstate teams especially Sydney that the AFL now reminds me of the WWE.

The umpiring against the Bulldogs was so laughably incompetent that I couldn't help but laugh. The umpiring against the lovechild Sydney was just criminal.

Why not get the favouritism of the AFl. We will get all the good players all the favours and have a flag in a year or two.

We can get the AFl to play all of our "away" games at the Dome and we can all have our same seats 11 times a year.

Who cares where we are located.

Time to face the reality that our club will be dead in ten years, nothing surer, unless we relocate to the GC.

[rodgerfox]

Time to face the reality that our club will be dead in ten years, nothing surer, unless we relocate to the GC.

The reality is that 1) it isn't a 'club' anymore, and 2) it certainly isn't 'our' club anymore.

Hasn't been for some time.

[Stephen Theodore]

Hey Mocha, obviously a lot of thought and work has gone into your extra long thread. I dont think you're that far off the mark, EXCEPT, it wont be St Kilda.

I do believe Dimwit would love that scenario with a Melbourne based club.

[plugger66]

Hey Mocha, obviously a lot of thought and work has gone into your extra long thread. I dont think you're that far off the mark, EXCEPT, it wont be St Kilda.

I do believe Dimwit would love that scenario with a Melbourne based club.

Of course he would and so would 14 other clubs but it isnt going to happen. If the Roos wouldnt go no one will go.

[Stephen Theodore]

plugger66 wrote:
Of course he would and so would 14 other clubs but it isnt going to happen. If the Roos wouldnt go no one will go.[

Maybe a club (or two or three) wont have a choice in 4 or 5 years time. The economics of 10 Melbourne clubs having to find $25 or 30 million each per annum to survive in todays money is not going to last forever.

[saint patrick]

Can't believe I feel this way but I honestly believe that the viability of this proposal should be considered...

And thats all I am saying...

Nothing should be dismissed without consideration in these hard and soon to be 10 times harder times

I don't know about the rest of you and I have been as loyal as anyone to the saints for over 40 years...

I would prefer to see the Gold Coast Saints win a flag in the next few years than the St.Kilda saints never win another one in our lifetimes...

Given missed oppotunities over recent times and the changing landscape this is a very real and distinct possibility.

Good on you for having the guts to put it forward Moccha...and please
disagree passionately if you don't share the view but don't question the loyalty and motives of those who are willing to look outside the square for success and or survival...

witnessing the tears of joy fromSydney supporters in family and friends has convinced me that the greatest tragedy is to never experience the bliss of that moment...

You think the Sydney/South Melbourne supporters cared about their relocation and favourable treatment from the AFL when the final siren sounded in 2005....

Ultimately they savoured their team ,in their colours with a link to the past achieving the ultimate...what the game is played for and exist's for

I would accept seeing a team in the gold coast[with possibly Nick Riewoldt as captain ]calling themselves the saints in red,white and black winning a flag in a heartbeat...

If that makes me a traitorous dog then so be it ....the thought of talking about our 66 flag in 2030 is far more depressing

[saint66au]

Winning a flag under this proposal would NOT be a flag for the St KFC in my view

Sorry..I want it won as a Victorian-based side or its not at St KIlda flag at all

[Stephen Theodore]

saint patrick wrote:
Nothing should be dismissed without consideration in these hard and soon to be 10 times harder times

Exactly right.

I am certainly not pushing for a Southport Saints team. Living on the Sunshine Coast, it would be just as quick to jump on a plane to Melbourne as to drive down to Carrara.

From a pessimistic view point, which comes from 50 odd years of following St Kilda, I can see some fairly rough years ahead for some Melbourne based clubs, due to the expansion, the draft favouring to the expansion clubs, and the blatant favouritism to the interstate clubs.

The clubs at risk wont be Collingwood, Carlton, Geelong or Essendon, so take your pick out of the remainder, because as sure as sh.t sticks to a blanket there will not be 10 teams running out of Melbourne in 10 years time.

[happy feet]

There is no way StKilda or any other club will successfully relocate to the Gold Coast. The Brisbane Bears were a flop and you need to understand that Queenslanders are more interested in Rugby League and Rugby Union than any other sport.

One of the main reasons that the Swans were able to survive in Sydney was that in 1996 the rugby league/super league war turned people away from rugby league in droves. That was the year that the Swans had to perform to capture attention and have Sydneysiders take them for real. A GF appearance helped. I sat with some Sydneysiders last Saturday night and that was the reason they became AFL fans. The rest is history.

A second team may just work in the west of Sydney just by sheer numbers of the population and the demographics. The Islander kids are taking over rugby league/union and many aussie kids in Western Sydney are now turning to AFL because they fear getting smashed by 100kg plus islander kids.

The Gold Coast Rugby League team are even struggling. I don't know what it is but it is a difficult market to crack.

Keep the Saints where they belong, but I fear that this season, if it is not turned around, will cost us many members.

[JeffDunne]

No, no and no.

If your wife was out of a job and you were struggling for cash, would you turn her to prostitution because it makes economic sense?

[Stephen Theodore]

JeffDunne wrote:
If your wife was out of a job and you were struggling for cash, would you turn her to prostitution because it makes economic sense?

Hmmmmmmm

[saint patrick]

No, no and no.

If your wife was out of a job and you were struggling for cash, would you turn her to prostitution because it makes economic sense?

No I wouldn't Jeff...silly anology by the way ...

but if a plum job in the library industry where she works came along under those circumstances offering her twice the money I would consider moving to the sunshine coast and finding a mowing round...

In other words I would do what was necessary for survival and our familys longterm viability or least look at and consider the options.

[krabb]

Well if we want it we'd better hurry.....or it will be all over.

They're already getting their 2nds organised.

Ask yourselves honestly...what have we got.

A 3rd rate rathole called Moorabbin...where not a cent has been spent for years...i think even the spiders have moved out.

We're moving training to Frankston.....err what year was that again?

Our 2nds are playing at Sandringham.....hmm parking tickets abide there 7 days a week by a greedy council...and its not all that...true.

We play at the Dome...where collo rules...

Yep we're forging ahead allright...arent we?

[rodgerfox]

No, no and no.

If your wife was out of a job and you were struggling for cash, would you turn her to prostitution because it makes economic sense?

What if she'd been prostituting for the past couple of years, but you were just too in love to see it?