The Run Home

[RedWhiteBlack]

So we find ourselves in 8th spot with what I consider a pretty good run home:

Rd 15: v Carlton MCG
Rd 17: v Hawthorn TD
Rd 17: v West Coast S
Rd 18: v Port Adelaide TD
Rd 19: v Collingwood MCG
Rd 20: v Fremantle S
Rd 21: v Adelaide TD
Rd 22: v Essendon TD

Just two interstate trips and they are against two of the worst sides in the competition. A number of the Melbourne games could go either way (although you'd think a loss against the Hawks is likely), we should be setting ourselves up for a solid run into September. Thoughts?

[The Saintsational Man]

Soap Box?

[Beno88]

Must win 5. Should win 6.

I see North winning 5 more games, Collingwood winning 3-4 and Carlton winning one.

These games will shape the bottom 2 of the 8....
Carlton vs St.Kilda R15 MCG
Nth Melb vs Collingwood R16 MCG
Collingwood vs St.Kilda R19 MCG
Carlton vs Nth Melb R20 TD

[St Chris]

We should be keeping an eye on the lions, and make sure we don't play them at the Gabba first week of the finals. If we have to play interstate, i think we'd be a much better chance against the crows at aami.

Am I getting ahead of myself yet???

[mick13]

Heh, look back at the threads when the fixture just came out. Everyone was going on about how easy our first half was and how hard our second half was. A lot can change in a few months eh?

If we had have been able to take advantage of our 'easy' start to the season, we'd be in top 4 contention and looking at this run home thinking omg we could be top of the ladder lol.

But yeah, we should make the 8 from here. I think we need to thrash one team though, to really get our % up and use that as an extra game advantage, cos I think it will determine 7th-9th at the end of the season.

[Ball_Breaker]

Norths run home:

Port (AAMI)
Collingwood (TD)
Melbourne (MCG)
Lions (GC)
Bulldogs (TD)
Carlton (TD)
Geelong (SS)
Port (MCG)

My opinion FWIW they'll win 3-4 of those

Carlton's run home:

St Kilda (MCG)
Sydney (TD)
Bulldogs (TD)
Adelaide (AAMI)
Port (TD)
North (TD)
Lions (Gabba)
Hawks (TD)

Gawn

Collingwood's run home

Sydney (ANZ)
Adelaide (MCG)
North (TD)
Essendon (MCG)
Hawks (MCG)
Saints (MCG)
Port (AAMI)
Sydney (TD)
Freo (Subi)

Brisbane's run home

Essendon (TD)
Eagles (Gabba)
Richmond (TD)
North (GC)
Hawks (AS)
Bulldogs (Gabba)
Carlton (Gabba)
Sydney (SCG)

All the above have a tougher run home than us. Our destiny is in our own hands. Our formline suggests we will probably lose against Carlton and drop our bundle but hopefully that formline is about to change.

[plugger66]

If we beat Carlton we make it. It we lose then we dont make it because we simply arent up to it.

[Cairnsman]

Got to win every game between here and grandfinal day otherwise we would just be making up the numbers if we did manage to make the 8.

[Raven]

Looking at our run home, I honestly think we have a chance in every game there, even against the Hawks who seem to have faded a bit lately. The one that slightly worries me is the Crows.

[Teflon]

So we find ourselves in 8th spot with what I consider a pretty good run home:

Rd 15: v Carlton MCG W
Rd 17: v Hawthorn TD W
Rd 17: v West Coast S W
Rd 18: v Port Adelaide TD W
Rd 19: v Collingwood MCG L
Rd 20: v Fremantle S L
Rd 21: v Adelaide TD L
Rd 22: v Essendon TD W

Just two interstate trips and they are against two of the worst sides in the competition. A number of the Melbourne games could go either way (although you'd think a loss against the Hawks is likely), we should be setting ourselves up for a solid run into September. Thoughts?

I reckon we'll win 5. I cant see us winning both trips tosubi - Freo look tougher and we only beat em ny 8 pts here. Collingwod at G are always tough and Adelaide could go either way. We could end up winning only 4 if we dont get over Hawks and I know theyre a good side but I fancy us out of the middle against them....and thats the best way to stop "buddy".

[my les foote]

If we beat Carlton we make it. It we lose then we dont make it because we simply arent up to it.

We lost to Essendon in round 13 2005. They were 14th. It knocked us out of the 8.

We won 8 out of the next 9, losing only the "whispers in the sky game"

Bottom line. Don't take too much from one game.

[Otiman]

I sincerely hope it's a run home and not a plod home with our feet dragging.

Ah, the Essendon "Butter Boys" game.

[Saint05]

Carlton: W
Hawthorn: W
West Coast: ?
Port Adel: ?
Collingwood: W
Fremantle: ?
Adelaide: W
Essendon: W

W's are very winnable matches imo, all at home and against final contenders, so there good practices to see if we are capable of playing finals again. Cant say which games we might loose, so Ive put them in Question marks I have my doubts about, considering 2 of them are in Perth and the other is a team we have a woeful record against and have only beaten once in 8 years. Just depends which St. Kilda outfit comes out on the day I guess...

If we are 14 Wins or more: Fantastic Achievement, even pushing a home Elimination final if we were that good.

If we are 12-14 Wins, Good going and should make the 8.

Anything below 12 wins and we wont make it. Simple.


Lets take it week by week though and beat Carlton for a start next Friday Then Hawthorn and so forth...

[plugger66]

If we beat Carlton we make it. It we lose then we dont make it because we simply arent up to it.

We lost to Essendon in round 13 2005. They were 14th. It knocked us out of the 8.

We won 8 out of the next 9, losing only the "whispers in the sky game"

Bottom line. Don't take too much from one game.

The reason I say that is because of the draw it will make it nearly impossible to make it as the Carlton game is the old 8 point game. If we lose to Carlton we will lose to Hawthorn and could be 8 points out. I say it again if we lose this week it is over for the year.

[Otiman]

Given the state of tanking these days, we can pencil in wins against teams not competing for the top 8.

Carlton: ?
Hawthorn: ?
West Coast: W
Port Adel: W
Collingwood: ?
Fremantle: W
Adelaide: ?
Essendon: W

Whichever way you look at it, the Carlton game is a season defining one. If we don't beat Carlton, we'll have to beat at least one and probably two of the other 3 '?' games (due to Carlton having 4 more points).

And Plugger, we aren't playing this week, therefore we can't lose, therefore season is on.

[Go Sainters Go]

Why couldn't we win 10 straight coming home - we've already won the first two!!
And incidentally, what happened after the break last year - didn't we win 7 1/2 and lose two to miss out on the eight by a half.
Not impossible to win the next eight and finish fifth or sixth in my opinion.

[Zed]

5 of those games are against teams that are below us on ther ladder.

Regardless of where those games are played, we should be good enough to beat teams below us. If we cant, then we are a crap team.

So that means we finish the season with a minimum of 12 wins - maybe just enough to sneak in - maybe 1/2 a game out.

Means we need to win at least 1 of the games against Hawks, Collingwood or Crows. Personally, I like our chances against Collingwood.

Yes this sounds melodramatic - but for me the next 8 weeks will define our next 5 years. If we are not good enough to make finals this year - we have nothing but mediocrity to look forward to for the next 5 years.

[spert]

And don't forget..we've turned the corner IMHO

[RedWhiteBlack]

So far, so good...

2/2 since the creation of this thread!