Go the Cats! - Could we overtake the Crows?

[Richter]

Looking ahead, if we can get over the Blues next week then we are looking set for the 8.

Ahead of that the games against the pies and the Crows could then be the difference between 7th/8th and 5th/6th - i.e. a HOME qualifying final.

We play the Crows here in round 21. We're 4 premiership points and about 150 points behind them in % - so every game that the Crows lose heavily, like tonight is a BONUS for us and means that we have to beat them by that much less to overtake them on the ladder if we are still 4 points behind them then.


-------Saints------Crows

rd 15 Carlton-----Pies
rd 16 Hawks------Port (Aami)
rd 17 WC Eagles-Swans
rd 18 Port---------Blues (Aami)
rd 19 Pies---------Tigers (Aami)
rd 20 Dockers----Bombers
rd 21 Crows------Saints
rd 22 Bombers---Bulldogs (Aami)

Presuming we beat them I reckon they'll get 2 definite wins (Port, Tigers); 2 probable wins (Blues, Bombers); 2 probable losses (Saints, Pies) and 2 definite losses (Swans, Dogs)

Given that scenario we'd need 6 wins to overtake them - given we are a chance in every game - only 1 game I'd put down as a "definite loss"=Hawks - or 5 wins with a big win against the Crows.

Conclusion: we are certainly a decent hope for a home Q Final!

[Raven]

Also, keep in mind that if the Swans absolutely smash the Pies tomorrow, we'll be 7th on percentage.

[Otiman]

Looking ahead, if we can get over the Blues next week then we are looking set for the 8.

I hate to trot out the old "one game at a time" mantra, but it holds true especially for this Carlton game. Truly is season defining, especially with the week break.

[casey scorp]

Their % took a fair old hammering tonight - from 116.32 to 109.09. Now they're only 11.78 ahead of us. Another thrashing like that, and some reasonable wins for us will see us pass their % and their points.

[casey scorp]

Also, keep in mind that if the Swans absolutely smash the Pies tomorrow, we'll be 7th on percentage.

By about 310 points.

[Richter]

Yep, Oti, it seems like almost every game we play from now on (and since the Dockers game in fact) has the potential to knock us out!

Caseyscorp, if we were to play the Crows in the next round then if we were to beat them by 75+ points then we would overtake them!

[casey scorp]

Caseyscorp, if we were to play the Crows in the next round then if we were to beat them by 75+ points then we would overtake them!

Correct. And even if they got beaten by your 75 points by someone else, and we beat someone else by your 75 points, we'd also overtake them.

[Richter]

Those 4th quarter efforts in losing games against the Dogs and the Lions MAY turn out to have been very important after all!

[casey scorp]

Every easy goal that we gave away earlier in the season is a hard one that we have to claw back later in the season.

[The OtherThommo]

What happened early on is totally unimportant - it's what happens now that ranks

[casey scorp]

What happened early on is totally unimportant - it's what happens now that ranks

Are you saying that it doesn't matter that we have a crap % (because the only reason we have a crap % is because of what happened earlier in the season)?

I agree that it can only be changed in the future, but the reality is that the ladder after Round 21 is based on almost a whole season's performances. It doesn't matter what you do in Round 22, if you've buggered it up earlier on.

[The OtherThommo]

This really is getting into prophetic territory. Fact - we've been 'orrible all, year. Fact - we're in the 8. Fact - we're in the 8 'cos our % is not as bad as some. Fact - the Ross Lyon haters will salivate 'til the very end. Fact - there are not 8 good sides to fill the 8. Fact - we're a chance.

[borderbarry]

I read an article in The Sun or The Age earlier this week that said the top 7 positions are sewn up. Rubbish.They convenirently left us out, but if we finish this season like we did last season, we can finish in the top 6.
Go Saints......

[Raven]

Also, keep in mind that if the Swans absolutely smash the Pies tomorrow, we'll be 7th on percentage.

By about 310 points.

So yes, it's possible! Just unlikely.

[johnpeterbudgefanclub]

Also, keep in mind that if the Swans absolutely smash the Pies tomorrow, we'll be 7th on percentage.

Huh????

[hAyES]

Can we overtake the Crows? I'm more concerned about our chances of making the finals at all let alone overtaking teams. I think we'll be lucky to make the finals.

[ben_fff]

Swans are far from a sure thing for the four, their next month and a bit is horrible... however they're far too good of a side to let too many games go down like last night.

[saint patrick]

Swans are far from a sure thing for the four, their next month and a bit is horrible... however they're far too good of a side to let too many games go down like last night.

Lets see if how the go against the Hawks in Melbourne without Hall.....if they finish top 4 courtesy of the draw with 19 players I will spew up

One gifted premiership in 06 was one too many...Will have a degree of happiness as long as Sydney do not win another flag this year or for that matter in my lifetime

[The Saintsational Man]

Also, keep in mind that if the Swans absolutely smash the Pies tomorrow, we'll be 7th on percentage.

Bit hard to smash the pies when they only kick 1 goal in 2 1/2 quarters of football.

[HarveysDeciple]

perspective gents.

we have had an ordinary year.

We need to improve to make the 8. the roos game was a step in the right direction but we must win friday night.

Don't even think about 6th yet.