I have just looked at the effect of the raising of the draft age from 17 2/3 to 18 (as at the end of the year).
Of players who would normal be picks Nos 1, 2, 3, on average one will be unavailable due to age say pick No 2.
Then on average picks nos 5, 8, 11, 14, 17 etc will be unavailable.
Melbourne are not likely to win more than 3 more games this season so will get a round one priority pick.
Richmond are not likely to win more than 2 more games this season so will get a round two priority pick.
Unless West Coast catchs a bad case of tanking they should win more than one more game so preventing them from getting a round one priority pick.
Fremantle would also need to catch a bad case of tanking or they should win more than one more game so preventing them from getting a round one priority pick.
North Melbourne need only one draw to prevent them getting a round two priority pick.
Normally the premiers would get pcik 16 but Melbourne's round one priority pick will push this out to 17.
However when you take into account the impact of the age raising, the premiers pciks become the equivalent of picks 25, 51, 75, 98 in a normal draft.
75 and 98 are very bad pick numbers but the draft rules require a club to make at least 3 draft picks so the premiers will probably only make the first 3.
The runners will probably make the equivalent of picks 23, 49, 73 but then we expect the Saints to be the premiers.
2009 Draft Pick Numbers
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2009 Draft Pick Numbers
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ThePunter
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Make no mistake - those clubs that are close to winning their next premiership will be delisting very few players this season.
With the one open spot on our list to start the season, St Kilda could conceivably delist just two players. However, with Zac Dawson likely to be elevated to the senior list, that would mean an extra delisting to get the three open spots we need to draft a minimum of three players.
It's no accident we drafted so many players in the 2008 draft.
With the one open spot on our list to start the season, St Kilda could conceivably delist just two players. However, with Zac Dawson likely to be elevated to the senior list, that would mean an extra delisting to get the three open spots we need to draft a minimum of three players.
It's no accident we drafted so many players in the 2008 draft.
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Both Zac Dawson and Luke Miles must be permanently promoted to the senior list or cut loose.ThePunter wrote:Make no mistake - those clubs that are close to winning their next premiership will be delisting very few players this season.
With the one open spot on our list to start the season, St Kilda could conceivably delist just two players. However, with Zac Dawson likely to be elevated to the senior list, that would mean an extra delisting to get the three open spots we need to draft a minimum of three players.
It's no accident we drafted so many players in the 2008 draft.
Both turn 23 this year so they can not have another year as rookies due to their age.
Khan Haretuku must face the national draft first if St Kilda want to retain him as a rookie.
Even then Haretuku would lose his "former NSW scholarship holder" status.
Even if they plan for only 3 draft picks the Saints will have 44 seniors and veterans.
So 4 players must be cut from the list of seniors players listed on the St Kilda website.
Who should they be?
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA