Get on Joey for the Brownlow

thirty-seven!? · Wed 10 Jun 2009 12:37am

From Superfooty:

THE AFL's official statisticians have named Leigh Montagna as their Brownlow Medal bolter.
Using the formula that tipped Jimmy Bartel as runaway winner in 2007 and Adam Cooney as a top-three certainty last year, Champion Data has Montagna as the only challenger to Gary Ablett.

Champion Data has Montagna, St Kilda's most potent ball carrier, on 17 votes after 11 rounds.

Ablett is in front with a staggering 20 votes, despite missing two matches with a groin injury.

Given the statisticians' track record, Montagna's odds are likely to be slashed today.

Last night, TAB Sportsbet still had him at $21 to win and $6 to finish top three.

Ablett, the Geelong superstar cruelly pipped last year, remains a short-priced $2.20 Brownlow favourite.

Chris Judd, second favourite with the bookies, has polled only seven votes so far in Champion Data's "Brownlow".

Judd's Carlton teammate Kade Simpson, a $201 shot, has polled more under a formula based on numbers more than perception and legend.

Champion Data says Judd has been in the top five players on the ground in seven of 11 matches this season.

But it has predicted Judd so far has two one-vote games, one two-vote effort and a solitary best-on-ground - Saturday night against the Brisbane Lions.

Champion Data uses its ranking points as a base, but puts a strong weighting on winning teams and the margin. An investigation found umpires now give the three votes to a player in the victorious side far more regularly than 10 years ago.

It also judges what it calls "near goal" players harshly, given in many ways the Brownlow has become the midfielders' medal.

Extra value is also added for ball carriers, given umpires seem to be seduced by run and bounce players who kick long.

"Joey" Montagna is No. 1 for metres gained in the competition with 5891m, hence his predicted three-vote games in Rounds 2, 3, 9 and 11.

Under the Champion Data formula, Montagna has polled in seven of 11 games.

Apart from gaining almost 6km for the Saints, he is No. 1 in the competition for effective long kicks, No. 1 for looseball gets and 10th for disposals.

Montagna is also doing the blue-collar work, sitting No. 4 for tackles - also keeping him in the eyes of the umpires.

He polled a respectable nine votes last year for a career total of 23. But Champion Data is adamant he is on track to smash his personal best - and everyone should take note.

In 2007, the statisticians raised eyebrows by predicting Bartel would win with 31 votes, 12 ahead of Brent Harvey, Daniel Kerr and Chad Cornes. They tipped Ablett to finish sixth on 16.

Bartel won with 29. Harvey, Kerr and Simon Black tied for second on 22. Ablett was sixth with 20.

CHAMPION DATA BROWNLOW LEADERBOARD

20 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)

17 - Leigh Montagna (St Kilda)

11 - Leon Davis (Collingwood)

11 - Nick Dal Santo (St Kilda)

10 - Joel Selwood (Geelong)

10 - Lenny Hayes (St Kilda)

9 - Josh Drummond (Brisbane)

9 - Brendon Goddard (St Kilda)

9 - Paul Chapman (Geelong)

9 - Kade Simpson (Carlton)

9 - Brad Sewell (Hawthorn)

BelfastSaint · Wed 10 Jun 2009 1:17am

With a stellar second half of this season .. anyone of the 4 Saints on that list could win the brownlow .......

Unforgiven · Post: # 755109Post **Unforgiven** » Wed 10 Jun 2009 1:19am

Cool, nice post, find that pretty interesting. I will go put down a sneaky something on Joey for a place, why not. Im surprised about the comments reguarding Judd, will be interesting to see how that one works out.

I think Ablett is a certainty, barrying further injury/suspension(obviously)

older saint · Wed 10 Jun 2009 11:48am

Got $31 3 weeks ago.

Quite happy with thatwhen combined with Goddard each way $501

Sainter_Dad · Wed 10 Jun 2009 12:38pm

He is also second (behind Lenny) in our Saintsational Player of the year poll!

SainterK · Post: # 755206Post **SainterK** » Wed 10 Jun 2009 12:45pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:He is also second (behind Lenny) in our Saintsational Player of the year poll!

I hope this doesn't distract him in anyway though, all this publicity....he may prefer just keeping it low key.

bergsone · Post: # 755268Post **bergsone** » Wed 10 Jun 2009 3:00pm

Pure greed on my behalf,hope he doesnt win Charlie,backed him 2 years ago,did no good so GO DAL

PS my roughie J Watson dons

True Blue Sainter · Wed 10 Jun 2009 6:45pm

I think Lenny is our best chance.

Was clear BOG against Port and Melbourne. Most likely BOG against Kangas. Will poll a vote against Collingwood (with Dal and Monty, not sure which order) and Brisbane.

St Fidelius · Wed 10 Jun 2009 8:12pm

Joey is having a great season, and his best so far.

If there is one thing that he needs to improve on is his kicking for goal.

This season so far 5:10

2008 - 12:11

2007 - 10:12

2006 - 12:14

This IMO is the only real area he needs to improve on

True Blue Sainter · Wed 10 Jun 2009 8:49pm

St Fidelius wrote:Joey is having a great season, and his best so far.

If there is one thing that he needs to improve on is his kicking for goal.

This season so far 5:10

2008 - 12:11

2007 - 10:12

2006 - 12:14

This IMO is the only real area he needs to improve on

Valid point St Fid.

For someone who is an above average field kick, his goal kicking does tend to let him down, sometimes at crucial stages of matches. I seem to remember when drafted that the Burgatron described him as a "goal-kicking wingman" in the Peter Matera mould. It's an area of the game where Joey could really add to, and make him even more of a threat.

bobmurray · Post: # 755469Post **bobmurray** » Wed 10 Jun 2009 8:53pm

We definitely need Joey to have one of his really good games on Friday Night.

I wanna see us flog em and keep improving our win/loss ratio against them...

St Fidelius · Wed 10 Jun 2009 9:00pm

True Blue Sainter wrote:
St Fidelius wrote:Joey is having a great season, and his best so far.

If there is one thing that he needs to improve on is his kicking for goal.

This season so far 5:10

2008 - 12:11

2007 - 10:12

2006 - 12:14

This IMO is the only real area he needs to improve on
Valid point St Fid.

For someone who is an above average field kick, his goal kicking does tend to let him down, sometimes at crucial stages of matches. I seem to remember when drafted that the Burgatron described him as a "goal-kicking wingman" in the Peter Matera mould. It's an area of the game where Joey could really add to, and make him even more of a threat.

Yes this IMO is the only area of improvement, as he has improved in other factors of his game...

He is averaging 6.6 tackles this year compared to last season of 3.3 tackles

This year from 11 matches he has laid a total of 73 tackles in 11 matches

Last year from 25 matches he laid a total of 82 tackles...

If Joey was able to improve his goal kicking conversion, I feel that he will be truly labeled a superstar....

Again, his goal kicking is the main area of improvement he needs to work and focus on