Grand Final Match Preview - Saints v Collingwood

[SainterK]

It gives me great pleasure to do this, a bit of fun and I had it ready to go once we won, so very proud

Please add your thoughts on matchups, potential strategies etc.

Last time these sides met

Rd 16
Collingwood 15.10 100 def St Kilda 6.16 52

Changes in teams since Rd 16

Saints
Ins: Dal, Eddy, Baker,
Outs: Geary, Steven, Pattison

Injury concerns
Dal - Hip, Gram - groin strain, Kosi - ribs

Emergencies
McEvoy, Stanley, Geary

Pies
Ins: Cloke, Maxwell
Outs: Goldsack, Lockyer

Injury concerns
Ball - Hamstring, Didak - Peck/Shoulder

Emergencies
Lockyer, Goldsack, Brown

Interesting stats about the Rd 16 game, specifically about the inaccuracy of our kicking.

Collingwood v St Kilda
25 Scoring Shots 22
15 Goals Kicked 6
7 Behinds Kicked 15
60.0% Conversion 27.3%
25.60 Disposals Per Goal 64.50
43 Inside 50s 38

There are ‘reasons’ not excuses, that could be suggested for what was a flat performance that day. Including flu, an underdone Roo and Gram, kicking it to Roo too much, Gilbert copping his first hard tag, Dal missing.

Interesting facts

Since Rd 16, St Kilda has kept Collingwood to it’s second lowest inside 50 and scoring shots.

Rd 16 - 43 / 25 (St Kilda)
Rd 17 - 58 / 32
Rd 18 - 53 / 30
Rd 19 - 66 / 37
Rd 20 - 60 / 42
Rd 21 - 40 / 24 (Adelaide)
Rd 22 - 47 / 30
Qualifying final - 68 / 39
Prelim final - 56 / 30

Inside 50’s targets for St Kilda since Roo returned

Rd 15 - Roo 12, Pattison 2, Milne 4, Schneider 2
Rd 16 - Roo 6, Kosi 4, Schneider 2, Milne 1
Rd 17 - Roo 15, Kosi 8, Schneider 3, Milne 2
Rd 18 - Roo 18, Kosi 4, Schneider 2, Milne 1
Rd 19 - Roo 12, Kosi 5, Schneider 6, Milne 5
Rd 20 - Roo 12, Kosi 8, Schneider 2, Milne 3
Rd 21 - Roo 12, Kosi 10, Schneider 1, Milne 2
Rd 22 - Roo 5, Kosi 2 (Schneider and Milne did not play)
Qualifying final - Roo 5, Kosi 5, Milne 5
Prelim final - Roo 9, Kosi 2, Schneider 1, Milne 4

Overall the confidence should be in our ability to deny Collingwood as much entry as they are used to, and continue to share the delivery to our forwards to make us less predictable.

My tip is lots of sunshine, and Saints by 14

[degruch]

Interesting that the entire football world (and our own resident pessimists) trotted out the Pies inaccuracy as the reason for our 'lucky win' in R3, but not a valid excuse for R16 apparently.

[SainterK]

We just couldn't be that terrible in front of goals again, everything else wasn't to bad on the day actually, just in front of the sticks let us down.

Hopefully Friday night was the Pies good kicking night

[LaUrEnCe]

I think all of us know the importance of kicking STRAIGHT in front of goals... hopefully we do that this time and hopefully the pies get the collywobbles ... and they have struggled with inaccuracy at times this season

[SainterK]

Tom Harley's preview

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/t ... 15h8w.html

[bigcarl]

Tom Harley's preview

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/t ... 15h8w.html

I like yours better. What would Harley know?

[bergholt]

a couple of things.

the weather is very important. we played better against geelong in the first half in the dry. we played better against the dogs in the second half when it dried out more. i know everyone's saying that rain favours the saints as a good contested ball side, but i think it's the opposite. we're not great at hitting targets, so in the wet that is compounded and we have serious issues with disposal efficiency.

so the main way that luck plays in the lead-up to this one (assuming nothing from the mrp or medical rooms) is from the BOM. currently they have:

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Light winds.
City Shower or two. Min 8 Max 16

i'd love it if those showers weren't on the mcg and weren't before the game.

secondly, the first quarter is where we could lose it. the pies are a youngish team so confidence is important to them. being four or five goals up at quarter time and on a roll could make them really hard to stop. on the other hand, being even or a couple of goals down and realising how hard the next three quarters will be could give them pause. our first quarter in the grannie last year was great, as was two-thirds of our first quarter against geelong two weeks ago. if we can do that again we've got every chance.

third. tom harley reckons the game will be "won in the midfield". i reckon that's crap. the game will be won in defence for both sides.

our defence was excellent last night. in the first half, they were the only thing that kept us in it, as lenny was the only midfielder playing, we were missing targets and the tide was against us. the boys in our defence look like they have a really good understanding at the moment and would back themselves in to beat cloke and dawes. however, it's the quicks that will be most worrying, because they push up then stream down from the midfield to kick their goals. didak, beams, sidebottom, pendlebury, macaffer, thomas, blair, wellingham. our defence is generally tall, especially without bakes, so numbers and smart zoning is the key to being able to stop them.

the pies have an interesting defence. like ours, it looks tall, with reid, n brown, maxwell, goldsack, o'brien down there. if milne or schneider can get off the chain for a period early then that will be a huge fillip for the saints, because it'll make them rethink their matchups and open it up for riewoldt and kosi. on the other hand, if they're allowed to zone off, and we bomb it in aimlessly from half-forward like in the first half last night, then we've got a serious problem.

both defences are great stoppers and rebounders. the defence which does it better will give their side a win.

[SainterK]

I am not sure about the first quarter after watching the replay Bergholt, was it the weather, or the week off?

[St. Luke]

I am not sure about the first quarter after watching the replay Bergholt, was it the weather, or the week off?

I believe we've always started off slowly with the weeks break. Things like byes often have us starting slow.

Playing the Prelim last week has us mentally fresh for the battle! Starting as underdogs also has our perspective, with regards to what our work-rate needs to be like off the first bounce, set at an all-time high!

Collingwood had a prelim loss against the Cats mentally implanted in their minds from last year! They knew that if they didn't come firing out of the gates hard this time that it'd probably end the sane way! Geelong went in and underestimated their opponent! Cocky? Arrogant? Who'd know? But listening to Bummer the week previous had him declaring publically that the Pies should be the ones worried as the Pies are the ones on foreign turf! Solution: Pies to make a heavy-handed statement from the opening bounce!! The similarity here is the Saints will/need to send this same message! We've got a Grand Final loss digging at our sub-conscious!

Remember the odds for the Geelong/Wobbles match? It was close! Very close! So who knew that the game would be so well controlled by the the Pies? Making a statement in the opening quarter by the Saints will be crucial as it was for the Pies! We NEED to be in the game by the end of the first quarter and not left behind in any sort of Collingwood wake! We don't necessarily need to be in front by qtr time - just close enough (preferably a kick at worst) to plant the seeds of doubt into our opponents minds! To be out in front by a couple of goals will turn the tables in our favor! If we're close it'll force the Pies to change their tactics, hence move them out of their comfort zone!

Riewoldt can't do this alone- fact! The team, the entire team, needs to be self-motivated in doing all the 1%ers to add extra impact and pressure!

Whilst watching the 1/2 huddle with Rooey dropping f-bomb after f-bomb to his troops also had me thinking that some of the boys were in self-preservation mode going into the Dogs game. After Riewoldt declared that there probably won't be a Grand Final appearance should we continue playing like we did over the first half gave us in an insight to what we'll be witnessing for 4 qtrs this Saturday! For nearly a qtr and a half we saw the brakes come off. For one quarter we copped a glimpse of whats in store for Collingwood this week! No way in hell will this game be as clear-cut as many would suggest. I don't believe for a minute we're here again by accident! And you can take it to the bank we're going to take this game by the scruff of the throat and throttle it! Unfinished business, we've been waiting for this moment since this time last year - now the brakes are off and our focus is pinpoint!

Just like David met Goliath in the Pies and Cats game, the same outcome will become apparent by the end of this game!

Saints by 24!

[stevie]

I'm still wondering why the weather has a major effect on us. ok, we hope its a dry sunny GF, but we played well last year and in RD 13 it was just as wet. the skill level from both teams that night, especially in the first half was awesome.

My Uncle is a Cats fan and he said the QF comeback wasn't due to the weather affecting our game, just that the Cats lifted.

Have the pies played in any wet games this year? i think a wet GF would affect them more than us.

[SainterK]

I'm still wondering why the weather has a major effect on us. ok, we hope its a dry sunny GF, but we played well last year and in RD 13 it was just as wet. the skill level from both teams that night, especially in the first half was awesome.

My Uncle is a Cats fan and he said the QF comeback wasn't due to the weather affecting our game, just that the Cats lifted.

Have the pies played in any wet games this year? i think a wet GF would
affect them more than us.

I actually think the weather brought the pace back to a level that players like Ling and Milburn could handle?

[spert]

Dry weather suits us a lot better!

[bergholt]

My Uncle is a Cats fan and he said the QF comeback wasn't due to the weather affecting our game, just that the Cats lifted.

Have the pies played in any wet games this year? i think a wet GF would
affect them more than us.

I actually think the weather brought the pace back to a level that players like Ling and Milburn could handle?

also, in the wet we tend to make more disposal errors. ever wonder why we have such a good record at docklands? our skills aren't that great, so we need dry conditions to execute our skills correctly.

i reckon disposal efficiency is the absolute key stat for this side, because the more targets we hit, the less effort we have to put in to stay in the contest. if we start missing targets then all of a sudden we have to run harder to zone and get to contests, and we have to work harder to win the ball back. the second half against geelong is a great example of this - it ended with us out on our feet.

this is why it's so important for us to get the ball into the hands of goddard, dal, jimmy gwilt - the players who can hit targets and allow us to shape the game, rather than constantly being reactive.

[saintly]

having players who can hit targets will help trememndously. Gwilt, is one that can and does do it. goddard of course, Dal is good and Fisher is usally good.

gilbert can be iffy under pressure.

out of the bottom 6that people use, Eddy will be ok. he seems cool and in the 2 finals he has not panicked much.

the usse will be who panics when under extrreme pressure, and you cannot get more pressure then a grand final!

[degruch]

Dry weather suits us a lot better!

Dry weather suits the Pies to the letter...if it rains, we will still be the better team.

[SainterK]

In regards to matchups....

Anyone thinking the Pies will be looking to replicate their hard tag on Gilbert from Rd 16? Saw him moved to the middle in the last, been shelved since, possible he will start there?

Jones onto Pendlebury?

Eddy onto O'Brien? Doesn't seem to cope with a heavy tag, bit of a barometer for the Pies when he goes on a 'dash'

[aussierules0k]

[saintly]

Gilbert and fisher will be locked onto. the move into the midfield again may help him.

[older saint]

Must keep our structure defensively. If Dawes plays deep - Zac, Cloke up the ground Fisher where he can look to run off him also. Blake to halp with the 3rd tall be that Bronw, Jolly etc. Do not let Fisher or Gilbert be forced back to the last line.

Collingwood like to rest onballers at half back , if they go there move our player to forwad pocket and lets leave Swan, Pendelbry Didak one out in the square.

Must put work in to both Maxwell and O'Brien. Maxwell will zone off, whee teams make mistakes is he player runs to the boundry and Maxwell leaves him kjnowing it is not a dangerous position. here is where playing 11 games without roo will help plan B. I would play Dempster on Maxwell and first option and look at Gibert as option 2.
O'Brien has a good record on Milne - if he goes there Milne goes Deep. Eddy to Shaw with a hard tag and must be a lead up player. KOSI MUST smash whoever fills the hole - Maxwell, O'brien Shaw. He nearly Kills Roo everyother game if he was to legally smash maxwell or Obrien in a marking contest it would really lift everyone.
If we control the midfield and have lots of stoppages look for BJ to be the X factor floating foward They will struggle for a match up for him.

Tempo football is critical - a slow game with 10 - 12 goals each side will favour Stkilda. and %'s say Collingwood cannot kick that straight again!

[saint75]

A common misconception about their game on Friday night is that they 'took their foot off the accelerator' after half time. Geelong managed to claw back the 81 point defecit for a much more respectable 40+ point loss. Wasn't because Collingwood were cruising, it is because they were 1 down on their rotations. Their rotations are CRUCIAL to their style of play and if so much as 1 player goes down, they are in trouble.

Watching the game closely on Friday night, they often rotate 4 players at a time. Take 1 player out of that equation, they start to struggle. If they take a half fit Ball into that game, I for one will be one happy supporter!!!

[plugger66]

A common misconception about their game on Friday night is that they 'took their foot off the accelerator' after half time. Geelong managed to claw back the 81 point defecit for a much more respectable 40+ point loss. Wasn't because Collingwood were cruising, it is because they were 1 down on their rotations. Their rotations are CRUCIAL to their style of play and if so much as 1 player goes down, they are in trouble.

Watching the game closely on Friday night, they often rotate 4 players at a time. Take 1 player out of that equation, they start to struggle. If they take a half fit Ball into that game, I for one will be one happy supporter!!!

Certainly looked 100% like cruising to me.

[saint75]

A common misconception about their game on Friday night is that they 'took their foot off the accelerator' after half time. Geelong managed to claw back the 81 point defecit for a much more respectable 40+ point loss. Wasn't because Collingwood were cruising, it is because they were 1 down on their rotations. Their rotations are CRUCIAL to their style of play and if so much as 1 player goes down, they are in trouble.

Watching the game closely on Friday night, they often rotate 4 players at a time. Take 1 player out of that equation, they start to struggle. If they take a half fit Ball into that game, I for one will be one happy supporter!!!

Certainly looked 100% like cruising to me.

Looks can be deceiving.....

[bergholt]

KOSI MUST smash whoever fills the hole - Maxwell, O'brien Shaw. He nearly Kills Roo everyother game if he was to legally smash maxwell or Obrien in a marking contest it would really lift everyone.

i don't mind if it's not too legal, personally, but a couple of big hits in the first quarter (like pendlebury and thomas last year in the qual) could make a huge difference to the game.

[Thinline]

A common misconception about their game on Friday night is that they 'took their foot off the accelerator' after half time. Geelong managed to claw back the 81 point defecit for a much more respectable 40+ point loss. Wasn't because Collingwood were cruising, it is because they were 1 down on their rotations. Their rotations are CRUCIAL to their style of play and if so much as 1 player goes down, they are in trouble.

Watching the game closely on Friday night, they often rotate 4 players at a time. Take 1 player out of that equation, they start to struggle. If they take a half fit Ball into that game, I for one will be one happy supporter!!!

Certainly looked 100% like cruising to me.

Looks can be deceiving.....

That was a ten and a half foot mal on 2 foot peelers at Currumbin Point.

Cruise-a-mundo...

[stevie]

No mention yet of Heath Shaw, who I rate as maybe the best Pies defender. Sets up a lot of plays and has been 'forgotten' about a little bit in the hooha about maxwell and windscreens.

Who does he normally take, Schneids? Any thoughts out there?