Grand Final Match Preview - Saints v Collingwood

[older saint]

No mention yet of Heath Shaw, who I rate as maybe the best Pies defender. Sets up a lot of plays and has been 'forgotten' about a little bit in the hooha about maxwell and windscreens.

Who does he normally take, Schneids? Any thoughts out there?

I mentionjed Eddy to Shaw in a defensive forward role. Eddy plays a lead up forward well but also is very hard at it which will worry shaw who likes it outside a bit,

[stevie]

sorry, didn't read your earlier post thoroughly enough!

[bergholt]

No mention yet of Heath Shaw, who I rate as maybe the best Pies defender.

I mentionjed Eddy to Shaw in a defensive forward role. Eddy plays a lead up forward well but also is very hard at it which will worry shaw who likes it outside a bit,

yup, i reckon that's the right match up. eddy's got the pace and stamina to stay with him for the entire game, and the anger to make him earn every kick.

[SainterK]

*Updated with team changes

Please add your thoughts on matchups, potential strategies etc.

Last time these sides met

Rd 16
Collingwood 15.10 100 def St Kilda 6.16 52

Changes in teams since Rd 16

Saints
Ins: Dal, Eddy, Baker,
Outs: Geary, Steven, Pattison

Injury concerns
Dal - Hip, Gram - groin strain, Kosi - ribs

Emergencies
McEvoy, Stanley, Geary

Pies
Ins: Cloke, Maxwell
Outs: Goldsack, Lockyer

Injury concerns
Ball - Hamstring, Didak - Peck/Shoulder

Emergencies
Lockyer, Goldsack, Brown

Interesting stats about the Rd 16 game, specifically about the inaccuracy of our kicking.

Collingwood v St Kilda
25 Scoring Shots 22
15 Goals Kicked 6
7 Behinds Kicked 15
60.0% Conversion 27.3%
25.60 Disposals Per Goal 64.50
43 Inside 50s 38

There are ‘reasons’ not excuses, that could be suggested for what was a flat performance that day. Including flu, an underdone Roo and Gram, kicking it to Roo too much, Gilbert copping his first hard tag, Dal missing.

Interesting facts

Since Rd 16, St Kilda has kept Collingwood to it’s second lowest inside 50 and scoring shots.

Rd 16 - 43 / 25 (St Kilda)
Rd 17 - 58 / 32
Rd 18 - 53 / 30
Rd 19 - 66 / 37
Rd 20 - 60 / 42
Rd 21 - 40 / 24 (Adelaide)
Rd 22 - 47 / 30
Qualifying final - 68 / 39
Prelim final - 56 / 30

Inside 50’s targets for St Kilda since Roo returned

Rd 15 - Roo 12, Pattison 2, Milne 4, Schneider 2
Rd 16 - Roo 6, Kosi 4, Schneider 2, Milne 1
Rd 17 - Roo 15, Kosi 8, Schneider 3, Milne 2
Rd 18 - Roo 18, Kosi 4, Schneider 2, Milne 1
Rd 19 - Roo 12, Kosi 5, Schneider 6, Milne 5
Rd 20 - Roo 12, Kosi 8, Schneider 2, Milne 3
Rd 21 - Roo 12, Kosi 10, Schneider 1, Milne 2
Rd 22 - Roo 5, Kosi 2 (Schneider and Milne did not play)
Qualifying final - Roo 5, Kosi 5, Milne 5
Prelim final - Roo 9, Kosi 2, Schneider 1, Milne 4

Overall the confidence should be in our ability to deny Collingwood as much entry as they are used to, and continue to share the delivery to our forwards to make us less predictable.

My tip is lots of sunshine, and Saints by 14[/quote]

[bergholt]

OK, let's do these matchups again in light of the teams. Assuming they run out as selected, I reckon it'll look something like this:

Dawson v Dawes
Gwilt v Cloke
Gilbert+Fisher+Baker+Dempster v Davis+Blair+Macaffer+Beams+Sidebottom

I reckon Gwilt is a good thing for Cloke, but he, Fisher and Gilbert would switch a bit in that position depending on which small is hanging around. Baker may stick to Davis but I think our backline is confident with a more dynamic set of matchups, depending on who's down there at any given time.

Gardiner v Jolly
Blake v L Brown
Hayes v Ball
Jones v Didak
Wellingham v Goddard
Johnson v Montagna
Pendlebury v Dal Santo
Gram+Peake+Ray v Swan+Thomas+Beams+Sidebottom

Fairly confident on all the midfield matchups until Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo - none of these will exactly be hard tags, so it's more that whole group of BJ, Joe, Dal, Gram, Peake, Ray takes on the Pies players named here.

Reid v Riewoldt
Prestigiacomo v Koschitzke
O'Brien v Milne
Toovey v Schneider
Eddy v Shaw
McQualter v Maxwell

I reckon these are pretty straightforward. Presti couldn't play on Roo for the whole game, but then neither can Reid, so they'll switch around and Maxwell might get some time as well.

How do we win?

Hard balls and clearances in the midfield are pretty important, but I think we've got enough strength to break even at the worst. We will have serious problems if we miss uncontested targets and allow Collingwood to hit theirs - disposal efficiency in the midfield is a huge indicator of how well we're going - as is working hard to cover loose men, which the Pies love to have.

If we're breaking even in the midfield then I'd back our defence to keep the Pies forwards in check. Similar to Riewoldt, Travis Cloke will take ten marks, but if we can stem the flow in to push him up onto the wing and wide inside 50, then he'll have trouble having too much influence. The smalls could be a problem but our defence is a great unit in excellent form, so I think we can cover them when they start inside 50; it's just the smalls streaming down from the midfield that might give us problems.

As to our forward line, that's where the game will be won and lost. Huge jobs for Mini (who's without a goal since July) and Eddy, who need to play tight when we're out of possession and become a useful option when we're in possession - not to mention hitting tackles like madmen - but everyone needs to do that.

I reckon Milne can kick a couple on Harry O, and if he can do that early then that will be very important to suck O'Brien back into the pocket, rather than up getting in Riewoldt's way. No doubt Roo can beat Reid or Presti, and Kosi can break even against either - not conceding marks - so it's really important for the ball to come in smart enough that it's kicked to situations where we have numbers.

Yep, we can win, on paper. By the end of the first quarter, we'll know if we can win on the day.