Carlton’s Pick 1

[magnifisaint]

Every year you hear the same old same old. The top 3 are guns and then you can throw a blanket over the next 20 odd. But in reality it never works out that way. If I was List Manager at the Saints and I could turn pick 4 into pick 8 and 15 I would do it in a heart beat.

It depends on who the recruiters are targeting. One very good player is worth more than 2 average ones.

[fugazi]

Every year you hear the same old same old. The top 3 are guns and then you can throw a blanket over the next 20 odd. But in reality it never works out that way. If I was List Manager at the Saints and I could turn pick 4 into pick 8 and 15 I would do it in a heart beat.

It depends on who the recruiters are targeting. One very good player is worth more than 2 average ones.

Yep.
Pick 8 would get us Ben King probably.
But if we want a gun mid... we need to be at 4-6

[SaintPav]

If the Saints hold onto #4 the odds are in our favor for improving the midfield. Not guaranteed of course, Watts & Ball being 2 cautionary tales that generates some anxiety.
Then there's Gold Coast & what they may be eyeing off with those top 3 picks in the top 3.
A happy surprise may be there for the taking on draft night.
I wont name names.

Comparing Watts and Ball is problematic.

Firstly, Ball didn’t go number 1.

[SaintPav]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

So coming back to my point re good maths. The intoxication of landing that 'once in a generation' player with one pick verses a more risk averse approach and increasing the odds with multiple (high) picks. With three picks you might jag a marque player but you will be just as content to land an A grader or two.

It also spreads your depth which futher increases your odds of high quality player availability during the season.

Hey Cairnsman, wanna play heads or tails for money?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

[stkfc1]

If we could turn pick 4 into 2 picks and still get the player we want Eg Smith that would be a great outcome.

This would the perfect outcome for us. Smith and a player Collier Dawkins or Butters. That would be huge for us.

[kosifantutti]

If the Saints hold onto #4 the odds are in our favor for improving the midfield. Not guaranteed of course, Watts & Ball being 2 cautionary tales that generates some anxiety.
Then there's Gold Coast & what they may be eyeing off with those top 3 picks in the top 3.
A happy surprise may be there for the taking on draft night.
I wont name names.

Comparing Watts and Ball is problematic.

Firstly, Ball didn’t go number 1.

Ball was like your avatar.

[Saintmatt]

Smart play by Carlton, someone is good at maths in the Blues camp.

Why?

Turning 1 DP into 3 DPs in the top 10 of a draft where the odds are good on there being more than one once in a generation player.

Aren't they trading out of the top 4 altogether though?

Melbourne missed Josh Kelly by doing the same thing.

Correct Rodger, but that is one draft and one isolated incident.

What if saints had traded #1 for 2 or 3 first round picks in 2014, might have drafted Wright, De Goey, Lever & Weller or two or three others instead of one player.

Say this year we really want Max King #4.
We go hard at the 3 gun SA players in communication letting them know we take them on draft night.

On the night we trade #4 on the night to PA for 5 & 15 and get both Kings.

Will be interesting.

I see both sides.

I just don't think it's 'smart' necessarily. It's equally as nuts as it is smart.

Imagine missing Josh Kelly? Imagine missing Riewoldt? Or Hodge, Ball and Judd?

So coming back to my point re good maths. The intoxication of landing that 'once in a generation' player with one pick verses a more risk averse approach and increasing the odds with multiple (high) picks. With three picks you might jag a marque player but you will be just as content to land an A grader or two.

It also spreads your depth which futher increases your odds of high quality player availability during the season.

Hey Cairnsman, wanna play heads or tails for money?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

SS will never be the place to introduce maths nor logic. You're much more likely to get support for an argument/position by linking it back to flat earth theory.

[chico2001]

Every year you hear the same old same old. The top 3 are guns and then you can throw a blanket over the next 20 odd. But in reality it never works out that way. If I was List Manager at the Saints and I could turn pick 4 into pick 8 and 15 I would do it in a heart beat.

Scary LM...Lions got Bill Longer at 8. I would swap for 4 for 50-60's range. Gherig, D,Swan, S,Sziller. L,Neale, Alistair Lynch, Robbie Gray, Troy Schwarze and did I mention D.Jarman.

It's a raffle. but apparently Walsh looks the goods

[ace]

Pick 1 is in discussion for Gold Coast 2 and 6. According to a real ITK this deal is close.

Carlton are then looking to turn 2 into 5 and 10.

Carlton would end up with 5, 6 and 10.

Gold Coast want Walsh.

Port get first pick of the Adelaide players.

Pick 1 = 3,000 points
PIck 2 and 6 = 2517 + 1751 = 4268 points
That deal is stupid

Pick 2 = 2517 points
Pick 5 and 10 = 1878 + 1395 = 3273 points
That deal is stupid

Carlton get 5, 6 and 10 = 1878 + 1751 + 1395 = 5024 points
for pick 1 = 3000 points
You are away with the fairies.

3 top 10 picks for pick No1
If only we could trade Paddy for that outcome

< warning for not being nice to a moderator>

[BackFromUSA]

Pick 1 is in discussion for Gold Coast 2 and 6. According to a real ITK this deal is close.

Carlton are then looking to turn 2 into 5 and 10.

Carlton would end up with 5, 6 and 10.

Gold Coast want Walsh.

Port get first pick of the Adelaide players.

Pick 1 = 3,000 points
PIck 2 and 6 = 2517 + 1751 = 4268 points
That deal is stupid

Pick 2 = 2517 points
Pick 5 and 10 = 1878 + 1395 = 3273 points
That deal is stupid

Carlton get 5, 6 and 10 = 1878 + 1751 + 1395 = 5024 points
for pick 1 = 3000 points
You are away with the fairies.

3 top 10 picks for pick No1
If only we could trade Paddy for that outcome

< warning for not being nice to a moderator>

I think you have missed the point.

It isn’t about points!

It is about the players the teams want.

Gold Coast want Walsh. Willing to pay overs and may get a late pick thrown in.

Port want the next pick for an Adelaide gun.

Carlton want 3 early draft picks.

[DJ Higgins]

Remember the best pick goes to worst team usually with the worst coaches hence it takes a while to shine or they don't reach their potential. No trades, take best player on offer, preferably a mid, wait for Richo to depart and the watch our young guys improve dramatically. I base this on ratten having learnt from clarkson

[bergsone]

Remember the best pick goes to worst team usually with the worst coaches hence it takes a while to shine or they don't reach their potential. No trades, take best player on offer, preferably a mid, wait for Richo to depart and the watch our young guys improve dramatically. I base this on ratten having learnt from clarkson

Well hopefully Richo will learn from Ratten,quickly