The Reason We'll Be Bottom For A Few Years

[st_Trav_ofWA]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down as Harves was getting less effective we found Lenny getting more effective with Lenny hitting his peak in Harves last lear and first year of retirment .... funny enough i see Armo starting to build as Lenny starts to come down ... our future A grader is quiet possibly a year or so away from really breaking through

I had Lenny, Rooy, Dal, Chips and Joey as A graders the first time I saw them train. I had Lovett marked down as an idiot and Schneider as injury prone.

really ? it took a while for me to see Lenny as a genuine A grader - he was always a good player but in the early years it was not a sure thing he would become a A grader ... as for Joey it was even longer before he came out as a A grade player i remember being on SS where a lot of talk was how he was not upto scratch and was at best a GOP ... Fisher also took some time for me before he became an A grader in fact it wasnt until we lost Goose that he really came into my calculations as an A grader (at one stage i think Leigh Fisher was the more likely) ... your right with Roo and Dal though the first time i saw Dal play i knew he was class and Roo was always going to be a star

[plugger66]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down as Harves was getting less effective we found Lenny getting more effective with Lenny hitting his peak in Harves last lear and first year of retirment .... funny enough i see Armo starting to build as Lenny starts to come down ... our future A grader is quiet possibly a year or so away from really breaking through

I had Lenny, Rooy, Dal, Chips and Joey as A graders the first time I saw them train. I had Lovett marked down as an idiot and Schneider as injury prone.

really ? it took a while for me to see Lenny as a genuine A grader - he was always a good player but in the early years it was not a sure thing he would become a A grader ... as for Joey it was even longer before he came out as a A grade player i remember being on SS where a lot of talk was how he was not upto scratch and was at best a GOP ... Fisher also took some time for me before he became an A grader in fact it wasnt until we lost Goose that he really came into my calculations as an A grader (at one stage i think Leigh Fisher was the more likely) ... your right with Roo and Dal though the first time i saw Dal play i knew he was class and Roo was always going to be a star

No i was actually joking. Had no idea about most of them.

[Richter]

Why is Geelong 'lucky' by topping up with draft picks they chose and developed. I would call that astute

"Astute" is easy to say in hindsight. But when Selwood's name was called out at pick 7 in 2006, you know that at least six players were rated ahead of him. Geelong hoped that he'd turn out to be a star but they had no guarantee of it. Same as Richmond hoped Mark Coughlan would be a star. Selwood was good and lucky, Coughlan was good and unlucky - he got 16 Brownlow votes in 03 before getting injured in 04.

You put a lot of faith in drafting. As with anything in life, you have to put in a shitload of work to minimise the influence of luck, but you still only get maybe 40 draft picks in 10 years. There's a good chance one or two of them will turn out to be a star, but much lower chance that four or six or eight will be. Geelong have put in the hard work but they've also had good luck. You can't deny that.

They lost Egan. All Australian CHB at 25
Ablett the best player in the comp
Ablett 21 yo premiership CHF quit
Harley and Ling their leaders
Scarlett... Best FB I've ever seen
Mooney, Rooke.... Fwd line enforcers and key players.
Had serious injuries to players

Name a club that couldn't reel off a list of misfortune like this. It happens to everyone.

Kept winningmdue to good management and fwd planning

No doubt. And also a healthy dose of luck. Very few teams win a flag without it.

A s*** load of luck. A few sliding doors moments...

- we take our chances in the 09 GF and the ball drops differently in the 10 GF and we're back-to-back premiers... we were 3 kicks from that...
- we pick Judd over Ball in 2001 and we win 3 or 4 flags over the next decade

[bergholt]

- we pick Judd over Ball in 2001 and we win 3 or 4 flags over the next decade

True that. The other way to look at it is that we drafted "poorly" in taking Ball ahead of Judd. That's like saying that you play roulette poorly because you bet on black and red comes up.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

by the sliding doors theory we pick up judd over ball judds shoulders fall apart and his OP crules him almost a cripple ... Ball get picked by WCE his leadership steers Ben Cousins away from the drugs and the two of them win 4 brownlows between them and 4 flags ...

[bergholt]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down...

I remember Lenny being pretty great towards the end of 03, he kept improving from there but I reckon he was A grade by the start of 04. That was his sixth year so he was 24 with almost 100 games under his belt - pretty much exactly what Con was saying.

The problem isn't that we can't see the future A grade players, but that it's going to take a few years for them to get to the level where we know one way or the other, because they haven't played enough games yet.

[SydneySainter]

Our list is s**t. The cold, hard truth.

[bergholt]

Our list is s**t. The cold, hard truth.

No way of knowing that. Our list is young and inexperienced - that's more accurate.

[Old Mate]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down...

I remember Lenny being pretty great towards the end of 03, he kept improving from there but I reckon he was A grade by the start of 04. That was his sixth year so he was 24 with almost 100 games under his belt - pretty much exactly what Con was saying.

The problem isn't that we can't see the future A grade players, but that it's going to take a few years for them to get to the level where we know one way or the other, because they haven't played enough games yet.

Lenny was an all australian wingman in 2003 and by the age of only 23. Interesting that Harvey was also AA that year. The master and the apprentice.

[Richter]

Our list is s**t. The cold, hard truth.

No way of knowing that. Our list is young and inexperienced - that's more accurate.

Yep. Agreed. From a post I made elsewhere...

What last really rammed home to me was the importance of having the bulk of your midfield engine room and spine in that 23-28 prime age group.

Look at the respective teams...

Saints

spine: Stanley (22), Fisher (30), McEvoy (23), Riewoldt (30), Maister (27)
engine: Steven (23), Armitage (24), Hayes (33), Dal Santo (29), Montagna (29), Ross (19), Jones (29)

Bombers

spine: Hooker (24), Carlisle (21), Hille (31)/Bellchambers (23), Hurley (22), Gumbleton (24)
engine: Watson (28), Stanton (26), Heppell (20), Zaharakis (23), Goddard (27), Howlett (24), Hocking (25), Winderlich (28)

We had 4/12 in that prime age group, with only one about to enter it, another a teenager and 6 past it.
The Bombers have 10/14 in that group with 3 coming up to it and one over it. In reserve they also have Fletcher (45)and Ryder (25).

It's frankly a testament to our team that we didn't get blown away by more by the Bombers.

Looking at our youth coming through here's an alternative spine and engine room...

Spine: Stanley (22), Ferguson (20), McEvoy (23)/Hickey (22), Lee (22), White (18)
Engine: Armitage (24), Steven, (23), Ross (19), Newnes (20), Curren (20), Wright (19), Saunders (18), Ledger (21), Markworth (21), Siposs (20), Murdoch (19)

Ok, we'll pick up some young mids in the next couple of drafts and possibly look to acquire free agents and trades (KPD and quick outside mid) but realistically most of our next batch of players will come out of the above group. The majority of these guys are 21 or under (11/17), suggesting a period of 2016-2021 for our next peak window.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

i see Armo as the the next Lenny ... just as Lenny was the next Harves ....

[Con Gorozidis]

For the first time in my entire lifetime - we dont have a single player in the AFLs top 30 players.

You cant blame our coach for that.

And Im totally in agreement with Richter's analysis above.

[BigMart]

Lenny was a B&F and All Australian in 2003.... Pretty sure he was ok then

He was leading the B&F easily in 2002 R12 until a broken hand cost him a month....

Lenny was very good in 2001, great in 2002, excellent in 2003, elite in 2004....

[plugger66]

Lenny was a B&F and All Australian in 2003.... Pretty sure he was ok then

He was leading the B&F easily in 2002 R12 until a broken hand cost him a month....

Lenny was very good in 2001, great in 2002, excellent in 2003, elite in 2004....

BM at least if you are going to sound like you know your stuff get it right. He was pretty ordinary in 2001 unless 15 disposals a game is good for a mid over 13 games. he was better in 2002 but he wasnt even close to great unless 20 possessions a game is considered great for a mid.

[noob]

Lenny didn't spend all his time in the vfl like most of youngsters are doing.
A team gets about 70-80 more disposals then they do back 10 years ago. So you would add a bit of leeway to amount of the possessions they get back then.

[Verdun66]

[quote="Con Gorozidis"]''For the first time in my entire lifetime - we dont have a single player in the AFLs top 30 players.

You cant blame our coach for that.''


Or Pelchen.....

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Lenny was a B&F and All Australian in 2003.... Pretty sure he was ok then

He was leading the B&F easily in 2002 R12 until a broken hand cost him a month....

Lenny was very good in 2001, great in 2002, excellent in 2003, elite in 2004....

BM at least if you are going to sound like you know your stuff get it right. He was pretty ordinary in 2001 unless 15 disposals a game is good for a mid over 13 games. he was better in 2002 but he wasnt even close to great unless 20 possessions a game is considered great for a mid.

Re Lenny in 2001, Butterss was interviewed after the Blight debacle and whined, "Why are people focusing on the negatives? We just signed Lenny Hayes to a new deal!" My mate and I thought that was laughable ... which goes some way to telling you what Hayes was like at the time. But he was captain by 2004, so he certainly improved quickly.

BTW, anyone remember Lenny's goal against WCE in Round 2 2000? Roared Anthony Hudson: "He's got the rock star name -- he just kicked the rock star goal!"

[BigMart]

Hmm...

Need to look a bit deeper than AFL tables to make a point

But let's do so
In 2001 at 21yo
Lenny played 12 games (injured early in game 13 with 2disposals)
205 disposals
38 tackles
That average seems to be better than 15?? tackles at 3+
Fair return IMO

2002 you really stuff up... Yes he was not consistent as the top liners yet but
More than 25 possesions 5 times
33 and a goal vs PA who were a top team
20 per game.... That counts the BL game where he was injured during the game
100 tackles in 20 games
I like those stats.....

He had Harves, Burkey, Thomo, Powell in the midfield who were primary ball winners in his early career... Of course his numbers would be down


Question?
How many disposals per game were considered good in 2001..... Scott West used to average about 27 and that was considered ludicrous....

I know you like trying to prove me wrong, but improve your analysis and fact finding missions before replying with rubbish.

[plugger66]

Hmm...

Need to look a bit deeper than AFL tables to make a point

But let's do so
In 2001 at 21yo
Lenny played 12 games (injured early in game 13 with 2disposals)
205 disposals
38 tackles
That average seems to be better than 15?? tackles at 3+
Fair return IMO

2002 you really stuff up... Yes he was not consistent as the top liners yet but
More than 25 possesions 5 times
33 and a goal vs PA who were a top team
20 per game.... That counts the BL game where he was injured during the game
100 tackles in 20 games
I like those stats.....

He had Harves, Burkey, Thomo, Powell in the midfield who were primary ball winners in his early career... Of course his numbers would be down


Question?
How many disposals per game were considered good in 2001..... Scott West used to average about 27 and that was considered ludicrous....

I know you like trying to prove me wrong, but improve your analysis and fact finding missions before replying with rubbish.

Well you obviously looked at AFL tables yourself or did you remember all that. yep they are good stats in 2002 but they arent good enough to be rated a great player. Age has nothing to do with it and in 2001 they are ok stats but that doesnt make him a very good player. maybe we have different ideas on great and very good players. To help me can you tell me a mid who is a very good player this year and a mid who is a great player this year. I will know you will look at stats to prove your point but for once surprise me with a truthful answer.

Lets face it you lied again to try and prove a point. BM you are allowed to be wrong. Your wife wont yell at you for being wrong.

I like you comment about Lennys stats in 2001. A fair return. Now that is correct.

[BigMart]

A fair return for a good player in 2001.

17ppg 3.1t

Game has changed... Please, do better....

In 2002 he was excellent....


In 2002
Ranked #1 at StKilda
Tackles
Hand balls
Hard ball gets
Ranked 5th
Kicking

If it weren't for a shoulder injury may well have won the best and fairest. Reported in a 2002 article
He finished 2nd in the B&F btw

Fair.... I'd say better than that!

So can you see how you're just making an ass out of yourself... I think you are just trying to argue, and don't even believe the crap your typing

[perfectionist]

...How many disposals per game were considered good in 2001...

It's typical of you, you know nothing idiot, to try to treat Lenny so poorly, even at the expense of the Dud. I can tell you that Lenny is one of the best ten Saints players of the last fifty years. Your Dud doesn't make the best 200. The fact that the Dud is likely to figure in the best five Saints players in the foreseeable future just shows how low we will go. You are a self possessed idiot who seems to spend all day in front of the computer punching out crap to every post that appeals to the LCD, of which, alas, there appears no limit. Switch off your computer and get a life for goodness sake.

[plugger66]

...How many disposals per game were considered good in 2001...

It's typical of you, you know nothing idiot, to try to treat Lenny so poorly, even at the expense of the Dud. I can tell you that Lenny is one of the best ten Saints players of the last fifty years. Your Dud doesn't make the best 200. The fact that the Dud is likely to figure in the best five Saints players in the foreseeable future just shows how low we will go. You are a self possessed idiot who seems to spend all day in front of the computer punching out crap to every post that appeals to the LCD, of which, alas, there appears no limit. Switch off your computer and get a life for goodness sake.

Perfectionist werent you the guy who quit this forum like a 10 year old because someone actually started a thread that you usually started. It was hilarious then and even funnier when I found out you were over 60 years of age. I when did i ever treat Lenny badly? Just show me one post. I have a very good life. matter of fact great. You are an excellent supporter though calling Jack Steven the dud. yep good stuff.

[plugger66]

A fair return for a good player in 2001.

17ppg 3.1t

Game has changed... Please, do better....

In 2002 he was excellent....


In 2002
Ranked #1 at StKilda
Tackles
Hand balls
Hard ball gets
Ranked 5th
Kicking

If it weren't for a shoulder injury may well have won the best and fairest. Reported in a 2002 article
He finished 2nd in the B&F btw

Fair.... I'd say better than that!

So can you see how you're just making an ass out of yourself... I think you are just trying to argue, and don't even believe the crap your typing

Now BM this is where you lie and you are so poor at this i shouldnt even challenge you. Firstly you dont give me names of very good and great players now so i can see what you call great because that would destroy you argument and then You say a fair return for a good player in 2001. the problem is you called him a very good player in 2001 and he wasnt. And who said Lenny was fair in 2002. certainly not me so i have no idea why you mentioned that. i say he wasnt great that year. he was just about every year after that. As for making an ass out of myself well your one answering when you said you wouldnt and your the one lying and your the one constantly bagging the club. You are making an arse of yourself not an ass.

[BigMart]

Wasn't even close to great...

What a comment!

Lost the B&F by 7 votes and missed 2 and a half games.....

If someone asked me in 2002..... How good is Lenny Hayes

My reply
Lenny is a GREAT player

You've got your opinion, which is easy to dispute give facts

[plugger66]

Wasn't even close to great...

What a comment!

Lost the B&F by 7 votes and missed 2 and a half games.....

If someone asked me in 2002..... How good is Lenny Hayes

My reply
Lenny is a GREAT player

You've got your opinion, which is easy to dispute give facts

Bakes was a great player. i need names of current great players and current very good players. You got any? And the funny thing is if a player you dont rate comes second in the B&F this year you will say that doesnt mean he was great because we are a poor side.

Lets be honest BM in 2002 you would have said Lenny has the potential to be a great player. If Jack came second this year would he be a great player. No way IMO. Matter of fact the winner probably wont be a great player this year and we are probably going to be better than 2002.