Dominant VFL display sets up selection squeeze

[saynta]

https://www.saints.com.au/news/978954/i ... on-squeeze

[Sanctorum]

Isn't it amazing how St Kilda have turned their season around after the bye, so many positives from the 3-1 results since then, and to have the borderline/recovering from injury players playing outstanding football for Sandringham on the weekend, which followed the strong win against premiership contenders Brisbane Lions, is icing on the cake.

All of a sudden the team that many thought lacked depth has players lining up to be selected for the game against Port Adelaide.

My money is on Jack Bytel to come in for Dean Kent after he was rated BOG for Sandy - he's a a big unit and should play every game to be cherry ripe if the Saints make finals...

In today's Oz 4 out of 6 pollsters tipped the Saints to win, though I expect the bookies will still install Port as favourites which is not unreasonable.

St Kilda will be fired up to knock off Port, stick to the new team ethos, knowing that a win gives them a much stronger chance to get in the top 8!

[older saint]

No change for me. Position and balance important. Lonie needs to do more than 1 game to get back , and Kent was ok.

Others either through injury or form opened the door and they must now wait for someone to drop off, get injured and in the mean time knock the door down

[CQ SAINT]

Pace and pressure at half forward and outside the stoppages is the key.
It gives the midfield time to set up from a rebound. Noted differences in the last 3 games changes see:
Byrnes - impacting with pace at the ball and through the stoppages, inspired by a different stoppage set up where the first reaction is to spread from the drop of the ball not crowd it. Of course Marshall and Ryder both provide an advantage. Byrnes plays in and out naturally. It wont be long till he starts to break away and break lines regularly.
Jones - his contribution is obvious and career wise, he is peaking, we need him fit and we need opportunities to rest him by covering him with more pace and grunt.
Long - he impacts with speed, strength and a touch of mongrel, covers the wings in a lead up role and turns quickly. His confidence is up and we may start seeing more of the freakish things we know he is capable of.
Kent - he covers the ground quickly and can split the defence. He is actually clever about where he runs and can cause heaps damage if his skills are on.
Connelly - another one who looks capable of taking the game on, currently under the radar but blessed with skill and pace he is a great link between the arcs, who may also be breaking lines on the outside or attracting a quality opponent.
Sinclair - he has always been clean but his improved defensive work and more dash and attack on the loose ball has often set us up to go forward quickly.

I dont see any off these guys giving way to Bytel because he is not quick. Strengths is his game and he brings something different. He also doesn't have a real role outside of stoppage work.
Long has Wood under pressure and Kent could give way to Higgins, although we would lose a little bit of pace.
Battle may be considered if a little more height up forward is required and he and Membrey can also stiffen up the defence when needed.
I'm not a Lonie fan and 3 of his 5 goals were more luck than skill.

I'm guessing maybe one change only. Wood or Battle for Kent.

[skeptic]

I think Wood may be out at least a month

[shanegrambeau]

Lonie is more likely to kick goals than Kent. Also more likely to disappoint. Higgins is far above and should come in.

Battle?
What can he do?

His manager must be making calls.
How was he at Sandy?

If Wood is hamstrung it is a disappointment big time. At his stage of career, with fragile hammies, not a hood sign.
A pity.

For some reason, I think Kent will play..maybe Higgins won’t come up? I don’t think he’s as damaging as Lonie can be, but if he kicks four and we win, I will be Sergeant Shultz.

The injury to their tall forward last week was a gift from the Gods. We might not be so lucky this week.

[saynta]

I think Wood may be out at least a month

yeah. Higgins too.

[skeptic]

I think Wood may be out at least a month

yeah. Higgins too.

Higgins that far away!!!

Bugger. I like both of them

Hopefully they’ll be back for our finals campaign

[saynta]

Lonie is more likely to kick goals than Kent. Also more likely to disappoint. Higgins is far above and should come in.

Battle?
What can he do?

His manager must be making calls.
How was he at Sandy?

If Wood is hamstrung it is a disappointment big time. At his stage of career, with fragile hammies, not a hood sign.
A pity.

For some reason, I think Kent will play..maybe Higgins won’t come up? I don’t think he’s as damaging as Lonie can be, but if he kicks four and we win, I will be Sergeant Shultz.

The injury to their tall forward last week was a gift from the Gods. We might not be so lucky this week.

Wood has a stress related injury to his spine and won't be back anytime soon.

The following was posted by Sanctorum in the injury update post.

"rom afl.com.au:

"Wood was a late withdrawal from the win over Brisbane with lower back and hamstring tightness with scans later revealing a bone stress injury in his back. He will be assessed over the next three to four weeks with no timeline set on his return. Higgins also missed with back soreness and has been ruled out of the clash against Port Adelaide this weekend, while McKernan's toe injury continues to stall. Coffield and Clark have made quicker-than-expected progress from respective injuries, however Geary remains unlikely to return this year."

[B.M]

I reckon Lonie could kick 10 and have 40 and there’d still be criticism.

[CQ SAINT]

The big problem with Lonie is, in order to get kicks, he has to go wide into the pockets and out to space in the flanks. It allows time for the the oppo to flood in and close down space because, if he takes a mark out there he generally mucks about lining up for a very low % shot.
If not, he let's his defender go to the ball to tackle him or goes in low, with his head up looking for a free kick. Its clever when it works and just pathetic when it doesn't.
He has done pretty well with limited ability and presence but he is no Stephen Milne.
It didn't take long for Hind to get an offer elsewhere, Lonie wouldn't sell at a clearance auction.

[shanegrambeau]

The big problem with Lonie is, in order to get kicks, he has to go wide into the pockets and out to space in the flanks. It allows time for the the oppo to flood in and close down space because, if he takes a mark out there he generally mucks about lining up for a very low % shot.
If not, he let's his defender go to the ball to tackle him or goes in low, with his head up looking for a free kick. Its clever when it works and just pathetic when it doesn't.
He has done pretty well with limited ability and presence but he is no Stephen Milne.
It didn't take long for Hind to get an offer elsewhere, Lonie wouldn't sell at a clearance auction.

Sadly, I agree.
..and commend the observations.
I hadn't watched more closely until 2019, so I missed all those Richo years, where these guys - Billings, Weller, Gresham, Dunstan, Sinclair, Newnes, Acres - were doing their thing at the coal face. In those years, I just watched "highlights" which usually translated to 'low lights' as i watched Membrey and co. kick like 2.11 from set shots, or long bomb after long bomb land hopelessly to disadvantage in F50.

When I saw Lonie in 2020 more carefully, I was impressed. I couldn't understand all the bashing. I expected small forwards of his class to play match winners once a month and be invisible on the stats sheet for at least 50% of their games. That is the way I thought it goes for small forwards unless you are a freak like Milne/Betts etc.

But your description succinctly depicts the scene for 2021. Alas.

[B.M]

He’s a small fwd

Of course he has to go wide. Small forwards need to get out of the way of key targets… they CANNOT clog up space!

Small forwards live or die by what’s going on up the field, they CANNOT go kick chasing and MUST stay in structure.

If they are getting starved of opportunities it’s either the ball isn’t coming in, or it’s coming in like crap or conversely the Keys are marking everything.

Question
How was the team going when Lonie was in the side?

See I disagree on one point
I think Lonie is super talented, very clever and skilled.
You don’t dominate VFL (as he has done for years) and play 90 AFL games averaging nearly a goal per game (booting 4 on a few occasions. When your 174cm and 71kg if you haven’t got ability.
Problem is, he is not talented enough to overcome some athletic profile deficiencies to make him a consistent AFL player

At his best he has the ability to play well in the AFL
On average he is fringe AFL
At his worse he is not up to standard

It is very unfair to compare him to Stephen Milne who is the best small forward in StK FC history.

How do we think Dan Butler is going this year???

[CQ SAINT]

Lonie plays for himself and doesn't have the skill or agility to back it up, like Milne did. It is unfair, there is absolutely no comparison and he is almost insignificant in regards to forward structure..
Butler is a completely different type of player and he isn't havent the greatest year but he is doing much better than Lonie who just goes chasing uncontested possessions and free kicks.

[B.M]

Most of that is rubbish

Lonie is very team oriented, perhaps too much so

Butler has been a little selfish of late, I suppose he is trying hard to get back into form
He is horribly out of form at present!

[CQ SAINT]

Most of that is rubbish

Lonie is very team oriented, perhaps too much so

Butler has been a little selfish of late, I suppose he is trying hard to get back into form
He is horribly out of form at present!

Lonie has been dropped, Butler has been supported with selection. We will just leave that there.
Lonie has had plenty of chances to prove himself and get some value on his next contract. What is a gun VFL player paid these days?

[B.M]

Luke Dunstan was dropped

Last year and this year

I agree Lonie has limitations, but you carry on like he’s never played a good game in the AFL.

His 2018
Averaged 15ppg
1.5 goals
2 tackles

As a small forward, they are very good numbers

Problem is, he has struggled to maintain consistency (like a lot of small forwards)

[SaintPav]

Imagine this:

Butler finds his 2020 form.

[CQ SAINT]

Luke Dunstan was dropped

Last year and this year

I agree Lonie has limitations, but you carry on like he’s never played a good game in the AFL.

His 2018
Averaged 15ppg
1.5 goals
2 tackles

As a small forward, they are very good numbers

Problem is, he has struggled to maintain consistency (like a lot of small forwards)

Dunstan isn't a small forward.
I didn't carry on about Lonie in 2018. I liked my ex wife once too. I should hook Lonie up with her.

[Scollop]

See I disagree on one point
I think Lonie is super talented, very clever and skilled.

No he's not. He has proven time and time again that he makes low percentage decisions , especially when it comes to set shots.

That's one of the reasons (imo) that he can't retain his spot. He also got dropped the week after he 'stole' the footy off a right footer (remember that dumb decision?)

[saynta]

Luke Dunstan was dropped

Last year and this year

I agree Lonie has limitations, but you carry on like he’s never played a good game in the AFL.

His 2018
Averaged 15ppg
1.5 goals
2 tackles

As a small forward, they are very good numbers

Problem is, he has struggled to maintain consistency (like a lot of small forwards)

Dunstan isn't a small forward.
I didn't carry on about Lonie in 2018. I liked my ex wife once too. I should hook Lonie up with her.

We have something else in common.

[B.M]

Have watched Lonie for years at both VFL and AFL level

Saw him do many clever things

He’s not the spud people on here making him out to be

He’s played 90 AFL games FFS

He’s got Brownlow votes
And kicked multiple goals in games

He’s inconsistent like many small forwards

And his biggest issue at AFL level
He doesn’t take his opportunities
He’s kicked more behinds than goals

He is clearly above VFL level has been from day 1
And rarely misses goals at VFL level

So it’s probably a confidence issue in the AFL

[skeptic]

How many good games has he played this year?

[B.M]

Not many, which is why he’s in the twos

How many good games has Dan Butler played?

[Otiman]

How many good games has Dan Butler played?

Butler is clearly not in form but is showing signs of aggression and determination. Lonie also shows this but doesn't have the body to make as much of an impact.

All of our small fwds are lacking this year compared to last.