2014 AFL Draft Revisited

[B.M]

Would this make us feel better?

StK pulled a massive surprise with Pick 1 overlooking Eastern Rangers star Christian Petracca to bid on GWS academy player Jack Steele. GWS did not match the bid and Steele makes his way to Moorabbin.

At Pick 21 StK also surprised many by taking 18yo North Ballarat project forward/ruckman Rowan Marshall ahead of highly rated Geelong Falcons tall Hugh Goddard.

At Pick 22 Stk chose tall fwd/def Dougal Howard.


Also
From the 2013 draft we now have Billings, Zac Jones, Jack Sinclair
From 2012 Tim Membrey and Dean Kent
From 2011 Brad Crouch, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster and Brad Hill


We have also picked up as bargains
Ben Paton
Cal Wilkie
Tom Highmore
Cooper Sharman

Would anyone be disappointed if any of those were either first or second round selections

[Jacks Back]

You make a very good point (well a few points actually) when you look at it that way.

[Jacks Back]

Interesting that there are no comments on this thread

[Finna]

Would this make us feel better?

StK pulled a massive surprise with Pick 1 overlooking Eastern Rangers star Christian Petracca to bid on GWS academy player Jack Steele. GWS did not match the bid and Steele makes his way to Moorabbin.

At Pick 21 StK also surprised many by taking 18yo North Ballarat project forward/ruckman Rowan Marshall ahead of highly rated Geelong Falcons tall Hugh Goddard.

At Pick 22 Stk chose tall fwd/def Dougal Howard.


Also
From the 2013 draft we now have Billings, Zac Jones, Jack Sinclair
From 2012 Tim Membrey and Dean Kent
From 2011 Brad Crouch, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster and Brad Hill


We have also picked up as bargains
Ben Paton
Cal Wilkie
Tom Highmore
Cooper Sharman

Would anyone be disappointed if any of those were either first or second round selections

Great post! We’ve done very well to correct the poor decisions made on draft night. As you say, if we’ve made these picks on the night we’d be very happy with the result.

[Goose is king]

I’m over the fact we didn’t pick Petracca or the Bont. I’m all about it being our journey to getting Max King (and hopefully Ben). We never would’ve got Max if we had Bont and Petracca and in Max’s career I believe we will win a premiership

[skeptic]

I don’t really get this thread...

[B.M]

Pretty simple

We lament two drafts…

But realistically we have on our list some of the best players from those drafts!!!

Would we feel better if we compared the players we have from those drafts… rather than those we drafted.

Ie/ would we be so up in arms if we took Marshall pick 1 instead of Petracca?

Instead we got Marshall in the Rookie draft of 2016 as a 21yo?

[SaintPav]

Marshall wasn’t even our first preference in that rookie draft.

[skeptic]

Pretty simple

We lament two drafts…

But realistically we have on our list some of the best players from those drafts!!!

Would we feel better if we compared the players we have from those drafts… rather than those we drafted.

Ie/ would we be so up in arms if we took Marshall pick 1 instead of Petracca?

Instead we got Marshall in the Rookie draft of 2016 as a 21yo?

Really professor science!?

Do you think maybe that instead of the overall performance, ppl are actually lamenting that we could have more or less had it all turn out that way anyway and still gotten Petracca

This warp doesn’t make us any less incompetent

Like my OP... I don’t get the point of this or the argument your making beyond let’s think about it nicer so it doesn’t seem so bad

[Sainter_Dad]

Would this make us feel better?

StK pulled a massive surprise with Pick 1 overlooking Eastern Rangers star Christian Petracca to bid on GWS academy player Jack Steele. GWS did not match the bid and Steele makes his way to Moorabbin.

At Pick 21 StK also surprised many by taking 18yo North Ballarat project forward/ruckman Rowan Marshall ahead of highly rated Geelong Falcons tall Hugh Goddard.

At Pick 22 Stk chose tall fwd/def Dougal Howard.


Also
From the 2013 draft we now have Billings, Zac Jones, Jack Sinclair
From 2012 Tim Membrey and Dean Kent
From 2011 Brad Crouch, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster and Brad Hill


We have also picked up as bargains
Ben Paton
Cal Wilkie
Tom Highmore
Cooper Sharman

Would anyone be disappointed if any of those were either first or second round selections

Yes it would make the discussion moot as well as mute (as in it has gone on too long)

However - rewriting history like this:
Petracca
Steele
Bontempelli
Marshall
Sinclair

Are not mutually exclusive - the only mutually exclusive are:
McCartin/Petracca
Billings/Bontempelli

You may as well say that we could have traded in Dusty due to the perceived 'destination' club status of having the 5 listed above.

[Life Long Saint]

Billings/Bontempelli

Can we please all let this one go?
Billings, by every expert guide, was a clear top 3 pick behind Tom Boyd and Josh Kelly.

Go your hardest on McCartin v Petracca but every team would have taken Billings over Bontempelli.
Brave call and well done by the Doggies for getting him as high as they did.

[Sainter_Dad]

Billings/Bontempelli

Can we please all let this one go?
Billings, by every expert guide, was a clear top 3 pick behind Tom Boyd and Josh Kelly.

Go your hardest on McCartin v Petracca but every team would have taken Billings over Bontempelli.
Brave call and well done by the Doggies for getting him as high as they did.

I was not comparing - I was saying that those two were the only mutually exclusive - ie you could not have them both

The entire 'vibe' of my post was you CANNOT rewrite history based on a Rookie turning out to be a good pick up - because you could have them both.

[cwrcyn]

The Bont/Petracca situation has been done to death on here. I hope opposition clubs will look at us in two years and think 'How did St Kilda have their first pick in 2019 at 52 and manage to snap up Ryan Byrnes, and how on earth was Leo Connolly the second last player selected in that draft?'

Lists are not just built on top ten draft selections. Look at some of these rookie selections n the past 10 years. You could put a similar list together fro players in the last round of the main draft

Jeremy McGovern
Tome Papley
Dane Rampe
Dan Houston
James Harmes
Tom Jonas
Jason Johannissen
Adam Saad
Charlie Cameron
Zach Williams
Jayden Short
Jake Lloyd
Mark Blicavs
Alex Keath
Sam Draper
Jack Crisp
Jason Castagna
Liam Baler

[B.M]

You do need to get the strike rate of your top ten picks very high

They are identified as elite talent - you want them to elite players.

You will always surprise with the odd lower pick - Fisher, Gwilt, Geary… but success rate is obviously lower - Sweeney, Raymond, Cahill, A Smith.

Top end picks should be 80-90% strike rate

Billings every day of the week over Bontempelli at the time of the draft. Whilst Bont has become a freak, which can happen.
Billings is still a good player and far from a wasted selection

McCartin on the other hand - ridiculous

[cwrcyn]

Some guy did an analysis of each round of the draft a couple of years back. From what I recall, in the history of the draft, statistically the top ten had around 70% hit rate. However, in more recent years (since 2014) the hit rate has been better. How many of those end up being super- elite is much lower than that, of course.

[B.M]

Early days of the draft was extremely hit and miss and skewed the numbers massively

First half a dozen drafts were almost a guessing game, players were drafted without recruiters even seeing them play!

Just word of mouth

[Gershwin]

You do need to get the strike rate of your top ten picks very high

They are identified as elite talent - you want them to elite players.

You will always surprise with the odd lower pick - Fisher, Gwilt, Geary… but success rate is obviously lower - Sweeney, Raymond, Cahill, A Smith.

Top end picks should be 80-90% strike rate

Billings every day of the week over Bontempelli at the time of the draft. Whilst Bont has become a freak, which can happen.
Billings is still a good player and far from a wasted selection

McCartin on the other hand - ridiculous

In 2018, Petracca played every match and only finished 15th in Melbourne's Best and Fairest. His career blossomed after that.
Unfortunately, McCartin was unable to play after 2018 due to recurring concussion symptoms. He had just turned 23! How can it be a valid comparison when one player was unable to continue his career due to medical issues.
It was bad luck, not a ridiculous decision.

[Wayne42]

I agree that it was bad luck, bad luck our recruiters didn't know what they were doing.

[Trev from the Bush]

It took a while, B.M, but you finally got 'em going.

I think I'll have a draught or two later today. I always make the right selection.