The official how-the-first-week-could-pan-out thread...

[evertonfc]

I hate getting ahead of ourselves, but I suppose this is the one time where it needs to be done...

Assuming (something you should never do, but we don't really have a choice here) Collingwood do the job on Adelaide and we grab four points against Richmond, here's how it's likely to pan out for us.

Some pointers:

- Assuming Port beats Freo and WCE defeats Essendon, there will be three finals (Fri, Sat, Sun) at the MCG and one interstate (must be Saturday - can't have two games at MCG on same day).
- The AFL will move heaven and earth to keep games AWAY from the Telstra Dome.
- Brackets indicate what day each team played in Round 22.
- We cannot play interstate in week one of the finals.
- Each team must get at least a six day break.
- Each team should be given the maximum possible rest time (can be the difference between a Saturday and Saturday night game).
- Note that either Port or WCE could finish second, obviously, but you can substitute in depending on who finished highest.

Margins in all games are considered not enough to alter percentages.

Scenario 1: Sydney def Hawthorn, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Kangaroos (Sunday) – Saturday MCG, 7:40pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) - Saturday, Subiaco, 2:10pm
5. Coll (Fri night) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) - Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
6. Hawthorn (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) - Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm


Scenario 2: Sydney def Hawthorn, Dogs def Kangaroos

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Coll (Fri night) – Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Saturday, Subiaco, 2:10pm
6. Kangaroos (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
5. Hawthorn (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, MCG, 7:10pm

Geelong wouldn't be happy with 24 hours less break, but it still gets them a six day break and avoids the Telstra Dome, which the AFL will love.

Scenario 3: Hawthorn def Sydney, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Friday, Subiaco, 7:40pm
5. Kang (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
6. Coll (Fri night) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 2:10pm.

Must have Telstra Dome game, otherwise one team won't have a six day break. St Kilda-Kangaroos is the natural pick, as it is probably the lowest drawing of the three Victorian games, and it's the Kangaroos home ground. Also gives Geelong, as the top placed team, an extra day of rest. The best possible result for us - 24 hours extra then our opponants, a full seven days, plus a real 'home' final, followed up by Hawthorn the next week for a spot in a Prelim Final. The absolute dream run.

Scenario 4: Hawthorn def Sydney, Bulldogs def Kangaroos

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Saturday, Subiaco, 7:10pm
5. Coll (Fri night) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
6. Kang (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 7:10pm

===========================================

Phew...that took ages. I think that's about right. If it's not right, do post

Subjective other points to consider:

- Sydney's ladder position can't change under these parameters; could they rest some key players?
- Hawthorn are chasing a top-four berth, as are the Kangaroos. Extra motivation?
- How hungry will the Bulldogs be? Will they play the kids against the Kangaroos?

[The_Dud]

if we do make the finals, i honestly think we have a real chance of beating all three of those teams, aslong as we show up to play

[evertonfc]

There can be no complaints - if we make the eight, our run to the Prelim, on any front, is as good as it gets.

[my les foote]

Good analysis.

If this week's form is anthing to go by, the Dogs are no chance against the Roos.

So it would really come down to the Sydney - Hawthorn game and we get Scenario 1 or 3.

Bottom line it is two Melbourne games followed by a trip to Perth or Adelaide

Although, never underestimate the chance of a big upset in the final week and the chance for the AFL to stuff us around with the fixture

[saintsrus]

thanks everton fc

now you have my hopes up again

[RooandKosi]

Telstra dome in finals??? i didnt think they used telstra dome in finals???

are you sure??

that would be good i guess... althougbn i reckon we go alright on the g.

Good things is IF we make it we'll be playing either the kangas, magpies or hawks 3 teams im confident we can beat.


Bad news is we play west coast at subiaco IF we make the prelim.

[evertonfc]

Telstra dome in finals??? i didnt think they used telstra dome in finals???

are you sure??

Read the opening post again. Including all the dot points.

Bad news is we play west coast at subiaco IF we make the prelim.

I don't think that is the highest of our concerns.

[n1ck]

Scenario 3: Hawthorn def Sydney, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Friday, Subiaco, 7:40pm
5. Kang (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
6. Coll (Fri night) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 2:10pm.

Must have Telstra Dome game, otherwise one team won't have a six day break. St Kilda-Kangaroos is the natural pick, as it is probably the lowest drawing of the three Victorian games, and it's the Kangaroos home ground. Also gives Geelong, as the top placed team, an extra day of rest. The best possible result for us - 24 hours extra then our opponants, a full seven days, plus a real 'home' final, followed up by Hawthorn the next week for a spot in a Prelim Final. The absolute dream run.


This is the one we should be hoping for, for obvious reasons.

[evertonfc]

Scenario 3: Hawthorn def Sydney, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Friday, Subiaco, 7:40pm
5. Kang (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
6. Coll (Fri night) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 2:10pm.

Must have Telstra Dome game, otherwise one team won't have a six day break. St Kilda-Kangaroos is the natural pick, as it is probably the lowest drawing of the three Victorian games, and it's the Kangaroos home ground. Also gives Geelong, as the top placed team, an extra day of rest. The best possible result for us - 24 hours extra then our opponants, a full seven days, plus a real 'home' final, followed up by Hawthorn the next week for a spot in a Prelim Final. The absolute dream run.


This is the one we should be hoping for, for obvious reasons.

You'd put a lazy $20 on us for the flag if the scenario #3 works out.

Imagine if Port rolled West Coast in week one and we made our way to the Prelim.

Port Adelaide v St Kilda for a spot in the GF. We'd be hungrier than a fat kid at 4:30pm. Play off against Geelong.



Never say never, anything's possible...

(although there's no way our current list is capable of that...sigh)

[saintm]

News report tonight suggested that the Cats may only get a six day break and have to front up next Friday night as three of the other finalists play on Sunday this week.

[evertonfc]

News report tonight suggested that the Cats may only get a six day break and have to front up next Friday night as three of the other finalists play on Sunday this week.

Already covered in scenario #2.

[HSVKing]

Scenario 5:

Adelaide Def Collingwood...

We're right royally screwed

[St. Luke]

Oh I love hypotheticals...but just not at this point in time! I just hope the Filth come out to play on Friday night! Surely they will??? (hypothetical enough??? )

[evertonfc]

Unlike most of this forum, I'm gaining confidence about Collingwood.

Adelaide didn't do much against Brisbane, but the Pies were great against Sydney.

Rocca has been cleared, Clement showed a few glimpses, Buckley was impressive and with a capacity crowd roaring them into a top four berth, and dare I say it, I think they should win.

[stinger]

I hate getting ahead of ourselves, but I suppose this is the one time where it needs to be done...

Assuming (something you should never do, but we don't really have a choice here) Collingwood do the job on Adelaide and we grab four points against Richmond, here's how it's likely to pan out for us.

Some pointers:

- Assuming Port beats Freo and WCE defeats Essendon, there will be three finals (Fri, Sat, Sun) at the MCG and one interstate (must be Saturday - can't have two games at MCG on same day).
- The AFL will move heaven and earth to keep games AWAY from the Telstra Dome.
- Brackets indicate what day each team played in Round 22.
- We cannot play interstate in week one of the finals.
- Each team must get at least a six day break.
- Each team should be given the maximum possible rest time (can be the difference between a Saturday and Saturday night game).
- Note that either Port or WCE could finish second, obviously, but you can substitute in depending on who finished highest.

Margins in all games are considered not enough to alter percentages.

Scenario 1: Sydney def Hawthorn, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Kangaroos (Sunday) – Saturday MCG, 7:40pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) - Saturday, Subiaco, 2:10pm
5. Coll (Fri night) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) - Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
6. Hawthorn (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) - Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm


Scenario 2: Sydney def Hawthorn, Dogs def Kangaroos

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Coll (Fri night) – Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Saturday, Subiaco, 2:10pm
6. Kangaroos (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
5. Hawthorn (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, MCG, 7:10pm

Geelong wouldn't be happy with 24 hours less break, but it still gets them a six day break and avoids the Telstra Dome, which the AFL will love.

Scenario 3: Hawthorn def Sydney, Kangaroos def Dogs

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Friday, Subiaco, 7:40pm
5. Kang (Sunday) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Saturday, Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
6. Coll (Fri night) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 2:10pm.

Must have Telstra Dome game, otherwise one team won't have a six day break. St Kilda-Kangaroos is the natural pick, as it is probably the lowest drawing of the three Victorian games, and it's the Kangaroos home ground. Also gives Geelong, as the top placed team, an extra day of rest. The best possible result for us - 24 hours extra then our opponants, a full seven days, plus a real 'home' final, followed up by Hawthorn the next week for a spot in a Prelim Final. The absolute dream run.

Scenario 4: Hawthorn def Sydney, Bulldogs def Kangaroos

1. Geelong (Saturday night) vs 4. Hawthorn (Sunday) – Sunday, MCG, 2:10pm
2. West Coast (Saturday) vs 3. Port (Sat night) – Saturday, Subiaco, 7:10pm
5. Coll (Fri night) vs 8. St Kilda (Saturday) – Friday, MCG, 7:40pm
6. Kang (Sunday) vs 7. Sydney (Sunday) – Saturday, MCG, 7:10pm

===========================================

Phew...that took ages. I think that's about right. If it's not right, do post

Subjective other points to consider:

- Sydney's ladder position can't change under these parameters; could they rest some key players?
- Hawthorn are chasing a top-four berth, as are the Kangaroos. Extra motivation?
- How hungry will the Bulldogs be? Will they play the kids against the Kangaroos?

good effort, mate....no...bloody good effort...

[stinger]

Unlike most of this forum, I'm gaining confidence about Collingwood.

Adelaide didn't do much against Brisbane, but the Pies were great against Sydney.

Rocca has been cleared, Clement showed a few glimpses, Buckley was impressive and with a capacity crowd roaring them into a top four berth, and dare I say it, I think they should win.

just taking to a filth mate of mine...reckons that they will win.....he's not a bad judge...as filth supporters go....

[evertonfc]

Unlike most of this forum, I'm gaining confidence about Collingwood.

Adelaide didn't do much against Brisbane, but the Pies were great against Sydney.

Rocca has been cleared, Clement showed a few glimpses, Buckley was impressive and with a capacity crowd roaring them into a top four berth, and dare I say it, I think they should win.

just taking to a filth mate of mine...reckons that they will win.....he's not a bad judge...as filth supporters go....

Adelaide aren't the team they used to be.

Sure, they're pretty good, but Ricciuto is on one leg and I think Collingwood could come out and do a real job on them, personally.

[midas_touch]

Great summary evertonfc, youve basically put the most probable outcomes in an easy to read and understand format . Hopefully it will not amount to nothing by Friday night.

[evertonfc]

Great summary evertonfc, youve basically put the most probable outcomes in an easy to read and understand format . Hopefully it will not amount to nothing by Friday night.

Stay true kids.

There's strength in Black and White.

[The Peanut]

Great summary evertonfc, youve basically put the most probable outcomes in an easy to read and understand format . Hopefully it will not amount to nothing by Friday night.

Stay true kids.

There's strength in Black and White.

great job evertonfc - very hepful to us all

[Stephen Theodore]

Brilliant job, Everton. Have wondered about scenarios all week. Lets just hope the Filth do their job Friday night, and I am sure we'll keep our end of the bargain Sat arvo

[StSteven]

See here: http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/08/ ... 57648.html

[evertonfc]

See here: http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/08/ ... 57648.html

Better still, do it yourself - http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

...and use the above guides to determine what will happen in week one of the finals.

[evertonfc]

Everything posted in my original post has turned out to be true

...now all we need is to make the eight

MEDIA RELEASE FROM THE AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

The AFL wishes to advise the schedule for Week One of the 2007 Toyota AFL Finals Series will be announced this Sunday, September 2, by AFL Chief Executive Officer Andrew Demetriou on the Ten Network, the official broadcaster of the 2007 Grand Final.

Mr Demetriou will confirm the four Week One match-ups and starting times as part of a national broadcast on the Ten Network, to run at 6.30pm local time in each market.

With only Geelong set in top position and all other spots in the top eight subject to change, Mr Demetriou said the AFL had numerous options to consider and the AFL Executive would be guided by three key principles in determining the fixture for Week One of the Finals.

"All sides must be given a minimum six-day break going into the finals series, which will exclude any match involving Hawthorn, Sydney or the Kangaroos being played on the Friday night of Week One, September 7," Mr Demetriou said.

"Geelong, as the side that qualifies first on the ladder, will be given a seven-day break leading into its first final, unless the club is forced to play on a Friday night due to the constraints of six-day breaks for the three sides playing on Sunday.

"The AFL's remaining key priority is to maximise our attendances at the games and television audiences around the country with the best possible mix of the four games through Friday night, Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday afternoon," he said.