I wonder who others think are the contenders and pretenders in '08?
2007 Final Ladder
1) GEELONG 72 Pts 158%
Have to be considered the presumptive favourites, they were just so far ahead of the pack. I don't think they're untouchable, and they're going to be hard pressed to maintain the same level, however until either someone else sustains a lifted game and Geelong proves to have lowered theirs, they'll enter every match as favourites.
PREDICTION: Top of the ladder again.
2) PORT ADELAIDE 60 Pts 113.5 %
Would be my candidate for most likely to slide. They took the AFL by surprise in '07 with their young, pacy list to support their still strong core of Burgoynes and Corneses. The achilles heel of youth is often inconsistency, and the reality of their success is that every team will be ensuring their gameplan accounts for dealing with Port. Like the Bulldogs in 06/07 I don't expect the '08 Power to be as good as the '06 result, though I don't expect them to fall as far.
PREDICTION: between 4-8.
3) WEST COAST 60 Pts, 111.7%
If any team appears ready for a fall, it's the Eagles, who are without Judd and Cousins, dismantling the premier midfield of the AFL. They're still dangerous, with Cox and Glass perennial AA calibre players, and Lynch coming into his own, plenty of run, and plenty of clearance talent. I suspect this year will be an evaluation year, as the Eagles determine whether to rebuild (and around who) or retool if players can step up. The Subi factor will keep them in the mix, but too many teams are going to be primed to play them outside of Subi, with the best teams beating them over there.
PREDICTION: 9-12
4) KANGAROOS 65 Pts 109.3%
Unable to command respect from many during the home and away, their top 4 finish was overshadowed in many pundits view by their 2 drubbings in the finals. It should not be disregarded that it was Geelong and Port who destroyed them, and they beat Hawthorn, and did it well. They retain a midfield of clearance players and stoppers, their defense appears solid, thought their forward line will reamina questionable, even with the return of Thompson. IMO, part of their top 4 finish was the number of good teams who dissapointed in '07, however they're better than half the comp, and a key danger side for the other half. I think they'll slide a couple of places as others improve, but remain a top 8 side in '08.
PREDICTION 4-8
5) HAWTHORN 52 Pts 113%
This team is starting to come of age. Built on solid drafting and good development, they've got stars, they've got grunt, they've got speed and excecution. They've also got coaching as IMO Clarkson had a big year in '07. I expect them to build on the success of their '07 campaign.
PREDICTION Top 2.
6) COLLINGWOOD 52 Pts 101%
Collingwood has virtually managed to hide the fact of their rebuild by getting good results regardless. Most important of their '07 result is that it was done without Buckley, and regularly missing Clement. The emergence of Travis Cloke is huge, if he can straighten up at goal, he can join the premier CHFs. The only question I retian is the young defense, who IMO played above themselves in '07 - should they slip, it could sabotage the '08 campaign... however, I expect Collingwood to be a force in '08 as the pieces truly start coming together.
PREDICTION 3-4.
7) SYDNEY 50 Pts 119%
Their good percentage belies how close Sydney came to missing out in '07. I suspect Sydney are in for a challenging '08. A lot of their players are aging, teams know what to expect against Sydney and set it as a benchmark game for their tackling and work ethic. The return of Kenneally will help, but I don't see them climbing, and I think others from this area of the ladder have improved a lot more. Along with their rival Eagles, I see Sydney departing the finals picture in '08.
PREDICTION 9-12.
8) ADELAIDE 48 Pts 101.9%
While I list Adelaide amongst the good teams who dissapointed in '07, with the retirement of Ricciuto, I mark it as the beginning of the end of an era. Teams will need to beware of their midfield still featureing Goodwin and Edwards and some talented younger players in Knights and Van Ryn, but even with the return of Hentschal, this is a forward line whose lack of goals will not be made up for by it's stingy defensive outlook. Their rebound game isn't going to surprise anyone, teams are well aware that once the ball is in play, stop Macleod and the Crows are going to struggle.
PREDICTION Bottom 4.
9) ST. KILDA 46 Pts 96.5%
Rose coloured glasses on. This will be the year the Saints overcome the injury bug. Given that, and the additions, the Saints will be this years team who go from outside the 8 into the top 4. They will continue to rule the dome, giving them a fast start, pick up Sydney's mantle of toughest team to play against, and allow the least goals against, letting the finish strongly. No individual awards, but team success. Biggest risks for the Saints are the ever present injuries of the last 4 years, and the lack of intimidation this big side hands out, letting small quick players on oppositions sides play more confidantly than should be the case, and poor team disposal. We know how good they can be when fit and firing, now thanks to '07, we know just how beatable they can be too.
10) BRISBANE 40 Pts 105.8 %
Adding Travis Johnstone to this strong clearance midfield is huge. Getting back Bradshaw is big too, and I expect a better year from Justin Sherman. For those who didn't notice, outside a woeful middle of the season, the Lions weren't bad early, and very good late. I expect them to return to finals in '08.
PREDICTION 6-8
11) FREMANTLE 40 Pts 102.5 %
I really want to predict Freo to miss out again. Possibly the single most dissapointing team of '07, they were supposed to be challenging for the flag, instead they were the poster team for lack of discipline. Something is simply wrong with Fremantle, and whether changing the coach was the answer, I will believe this team will achieve to their ability when I see it happening. They're another candidate to jump to the top of the ladder with their list, but on gameday they're too implosion prone. Some big wins at home will keep the % high, and they're just too talented not to take a few on the road. Surely finals bound in January, we'll see how they go on the field...
PREDICTION: 5-15
(okay, fine then, 6th!)12) W BULLDOGS 38 Pts 85.5%
Still have issues to address in many positions, but after getting ahead of themselves 12 months ago, I expect them to attempt to succeed Adelaide in the same way St. Kilda will succeed Sydney. With numbers back it will be about the rebound game, and a number of their mids need to step up and reduce the reliace on Gilbee ala Macleod. In their favour, Murphy and Hahn add some height, and the extra hunger of a poor '07 gives them a good chance of finals if anyone slips up, but they're a long way from premiership contention, and overreliance on a few players (Johnson and Gilbee) means IMO, they're an outside bet.
PREDICTION: 9th
13) ESSENDON 40 Pts 91.23%
New Coach, new philosophy, younger players... whatever they've said in the press, I think Essendon are expecting a very tough year. If they're not, I think they should be. Honestly, they don't have a lot of areas of strength, and while they'll win a couple thanks to a few players having big games, they'll be right down the bottom.
PREDICTION: Bottom 2.
14) MELBOURNE 20 Pts 78.16 %
Look like a team on the verge of total rebuild, other than Bruce and Neitz, so much of this list is players who have never reached their full potential. Carroll, Miller, Green... White is not longer what he was under the old ruck rules, and Neitz is up to swansong time. Could be a long year for the red and the blue. I gather the coach has big plans for every player - I suspect he's in for a lesson about the top job, and that plan will need to be heavily revised in practice.
PREDICTION Wooden Spoon.
15) CARLTON 16 Pts 74.44 %
Adding Judd and Stevens into the mix means if this midfield stays healthy, Carlton are a very different beast to what we've become used to. Players are starting to find posessions, and I expect them to be competitive in '08. IMO, their biggest achilles heel will be that in tight games, this is a list that doesn't ahve the experience grinding out wins, which will keep them from finals for another year.
PREDICTION 9-12
16) RICHMOND 14 Pts 77.18 %
Will be improved by the return of injured players. Unfortunately for them, that doesn't say much, as many weeks that just means from woeful to bad. They need a lot of their youth to step up and start making presences felt to escape the bottom 4.
PREDICTION 13-16
PREDICTED '08 LADDER
Geelong
Hawthorn
Collingwood
St Kilda
Port
Fremantle
Kangas
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Carlton
West Coast
Sydney
Adelaide
Richmond
Essendon
Melbourne
Thomas and Gunlord Dudak but IMO Pendlebury is the top notch class in this lot....and thats a fair weight to carry.