Too many ifs and maybes ???????

[cwrcyn]

I know some on here have pretty high expectations of the Saints this year. However, it's sobering to look at the non-dependable aspects of the list.

The way I see it, we can only count on only ten players to play consistently at or near their best, despite the imput of their team mates or the pressure from their opposition. These players are, as I see it:

A Grade

Riewoldt
Hayes
S.Fisher
Ball
Goddard
Montagna

B Grade

Baker
Milne
Blake
King

Now we go to the other categories. Firstly, the "Are their bodies going to hold together?" category.

X.Clarke
R.Clarke
Hudghton
Gardiner
Maguire
Schneider


Next, the "Are they mentally strong enough?" category

Gwilt
Armitage
Schneider
Dal Santo
Ray


Next, the "Can they really play/they might not be up to AFL standard" category


McQualter
Eddy
L.Fisher
Gwilt
Geary
Jones


Lastly, the "They're young, some say they can play, but who really knows" category

McEvoy
Armitage
Steven
Connors

***and all our new recruits


In my view, we have too many players who are iffy with their bodies, and unfortunately, most of them fit into that player 10 to 16 range, which is critical if you're going to be a challenger. Beyond that, there's a big gap down to the younger, untried and yet to be fully tested players such as Armitage and McEvoy.

Without significant improvement and imput from the likes of Armitage, Steven, Gwilt, Eddy, Geary, & co. and a surprise elevation of a talented new recruit (perhaps Heyne), we'll see the same core of players carrying the team on their shoulders, and it won't be enough to give us the energy and vitality to conquer during the finals, should we in fact make it that far.

[cwrcyn]

Whoops, I forgot Gram. I think I could squeeze him into the top group.

[battye]

Unfortunately I don't think Ball can be classed in the "A grade" group. By no fault of his own (injury), he just hasn't done enough in the past 2 or 3 years to earn that status.

[Bernard Shakey]

So, you've written Kosi off completely?

[Teflon]

Great OP.

Puts into context where things are at.

IF the other categories are not at a level to truly support the top liners for a flag tilt then the next question we need to address is - are they the right cattle to be developing? (no Im not saying get rid of all)

What I am saying is this:

IF we believe our core has 2-3 years left in it to drive a top 4 side we just dont have the time to waste development years on list cloggers - no more Barry Brooks years, Murray years, Phil Raymond et al....

Do the players in the secondary categories have the skill/ability to truly step up?...the newbies/kids we just dont know yet obviously.....but I suspect some of the others we just might already.....and some of them could be bigger names than we think.

[plugger66]

Great OP.

Puts into context where things are at.

IF the other categories are not at a level to truly support the top liners for a flag tilt then the next question we need to address is - are they the right cattle to be developing? (no Im not saying get rid of all)

What I am saying is this:

IF we believe our core has 2-3 years left in it to drive a top 4 side we just dont have the time to waste development years on list cloggers - no more Barry Brooks years, Murray years, Phil Raymond et al....

Do the players in the secondary categories have the skill/ability to truly step up?...the newbies/kids we just dont know yet obviously.....but I suspect some of the others we just might already.....and some of them could be bigger names than we think.

No more list cloggers. How would you know. We could have plenty there or none. Lets revisit in 4 years and could bet there will be the same as in previous years. Pretty much always is.

[Beno88]

Max Hudghton is the best full back in the competition and is most certainly an A-Grade player.

[rodgerfox]

The problem is that on ability, we have about 9 'A-Grade' players.

The bigger problem is that on performance, we have 4.

[vergs]

The problem is that on ability, we have about 9 'A-Grade' players.

The bigger problem is that on performance, we have 4.

Bingo. Only a handful of our most talented players live up to their ability consistently. There is often substantial blame placed at the feet of our depth players but a lot of the time I think it should be the opposite. Many of these supposed A graders don't live up to their best often enough, leaving a handful of stars plus the 2nd - 3rd tier players to pick up the slack. Very rarely will these less talented or less experienced players win a game for you.

[meher baba]

We have been badly affected by injuries and ill-health over the past four seasons.

The careers of Penny, Hamill, Gehrig and Aussie Jones were curtailed far too early by injury or some form of ill-health (albeit that we can never be 100% sure of the nature of Aussie's problem). And there is still a strong chance that Goose's career effectively came to an end towards the end of 2006 as well.

Lenny played like a superstar during the first half of 2006, and then did his knee and has - while he has come back ok - I don't believe he has ever returned to his 2006 standard.

Ball, who also once looked like a superstar, has been hampered by OP and other problems for at least 3 years.

Kosi had an injury-plagued 2005, but also briefly looked like the best player in the AFL in that season and also at times during 2006, until Gia cleaned him up: and he has not come back.

Raph's development has clearly been hampered by his undiagnosed epilepsy. Now that he is getting treatment, we can see a bit of what he might have been like all along.

Max and X have had a succession of minor injuries, as has Riewoldt (although he clearly has amazing powers of recuperation).

BJ started to look like the complete AFL player in 2007, then did his knee and has only now started to get back to that.

Baker missed most of last season.

Young potential talents like Armitage and, especially, Allen, have also been badly affected in their development by major injury: as, further back, were Gram and Leigh Fisher. And, of course, we all remember what major injuries did to the once seemingly promising careers of Barry Brooks and Fergus Watts.

Look at the above list carefully. I would consider the first 14 players I have listed as A grade (or, at least, B+ grade players). In 2005, they arguably represented 14 of the top 20 on our list (the others being Milne, Dal, Harves, Joey and Thommo)

On the day of the 2008 PF, 4 of the 14 were retired (of whom only Fraser Gehrig was older than Max Hudghton, and then only by a few months). 4 more were sitting injured in the stands (of whom only Luke Ball had made any sort of a contribution during the regular season).

Of the six who played in the PF, Raph had only come back from injury/illness near the end of the season, Kosi was well short of his best form, and BJ and Lenny were arguably somewhat short of their best form.

No wonder people see Riewoldt as our main man!!

Given all of these problems (and others I haven't mentioned like Sam Fisher missing the 2005 finals) our record over the past four seasons is nothing short of phenomenal: two PF appearances and a fifth and ninth placed regular season finish in the other two years.

Imagine a similar injury scenario among the top 20 players on the Sydney, West Coast, Geelong or Hawthorn lists and then think about how they would have gone over the past four seasons? I would only back Geelong to have done remotely as well over the period as we have done: the others would still be looking around for priority draft picks!!

Why so many injuries? Some blame past training and conditioning services at the club (although most of the bad injuries listed above were unlucky one-offs). I am more inclined to blame the Docklands Stadium surface.

But surely, when you take the long-term view, our problems with our list are more about rotten luck with injuries than about poor recruitment?

[Teflon]

Great OP.

Puts into context where things are at.

IF the other categories are not at a level to truly support the top liners for a flag tilt then the next question we need to address is - are they the right cattle to be developing? (no Im not saying get rid of all)

What I am saying is this:

IF we believe our core has 2-3 years left in it to drive a top 4 side we just dont have the time to waste development years on list cloggers - no more Barry Brooks years, Murray years, Phil Raymond et al....

Do the players in the secondary categories have the skill/ability to truly step up?...the newbies/kids we just dont know yet obviously.....but I suspect some of the others we just might already.....and some of them could be bigger names than we think.

No more list cloggers. How would you know. We could have plenty there or none. Lets revisit in 4 years and could bet there will be the same as in previous years. Pretty much always is.

I think Im saying we need to get better in a ratio sense of more 'wins" than flops.

When was our last rising star nomination?

Now more than ever with fewer low picks and a core in its prime we have to get better at identifying players - not cloggers.

[WayneJudson42]

If everything goes to plan... then maybe we'll win the flag.

It's an open and shut case, really.