What's your safety margin?

[perfectionist]

When asked when he relaxed in the coaches box, Allan Jeans replied, "when the number of minutes left equalled the number of goals in front". While one goal up with one minute to play can be a bit tricky, his rule may be regarded as too conservative. Or is it?

My own safety margin is five goals - with this team anyway. In previous eras, I have seen two ten goal leads sacrificed (1970 and 1999) to losses and holding on to narrow leads was never a hallmark of most St Kilda teams. But I reckon that with this team, if we can get that five goal lead, it will be enough. You might recall that in Round 14, we did just this in the first quarter, and it proved to be enough, albeit after scores were tied.

Our winning margin yesterday was 28 points, coincidentally the same margin that Carlton established over Brisbane in their last quarter. But Carlton is no St Kilda - at least, not these days. I can remember many very long years when the reverse was the case.

[GrumpyOne]

My safety margin is the second line of the song in the rooms after the game.

[benengel14]

Best to wait until the AFL commission decide whether or not to change the result of the game by ignoring the rules.

[Superboot]

This is a very good question, and the whole thing was running through my head in the last quarter.

It depends a bit on the opposition and the nature of the game. But yesterday I wasn't really comfortable until Milne kicked the last goal. Generally if we are 6 goals in front with around 15 minutes to go, I start to feel OK. I add a couple of goals for us and reason that the opposition have to kick 8 in 15 minutes, the equivalent of a 16 goals quarter. Unlikely.

I'm constantly amazed when opposition supporters give up when victory is still a possibility. It's even more amazing when opposition players seem to have given up (e.g. when Davis kicked that goal for them in the last quarter)

[markp]

24 points is a good buffer... but I like to be over 30 before I can really relax.

On an aside I must say I found most of yesterdays game was very stressful, certainly not 'fun'.... didn't help that I was hungover, but sheesh winning that meant everything.

[St Plugger]

After seeing those ten goal leads squandered, I'm never really comfortable, but a 6 goal buffer always helps sooth my nerves!!!

[st.byron]

My mate who's a Richmond man but has a soft spot for the Saints said to me at about the ten minute mark of the last yesterday, "You're home". My response was, "way too early". It depends on how long to go and the size of the lead as to when I feel comfortable, but six goals up at the ten minute mark of the last is a good buffer provided the other mob isn't on a roll.

Yesterday I was still bloody nervous at 3/4 time, confident when Roo put us 28 or 29 points up and singing the song when Milney slotted one to take us back to 29 points up at the 21 minute mark.

[SainterK]

23 points, but it depends on the context of the game....

[Moorabbin Saints]

Not until the siren sounds.

I found it extremely hard to relax yesterday, the nerves were at an all time high. Even with 5 minutes left the nerves were still there (all be it fading). When the siren went those nerves turned to joy.

[Grimfang]

Personally, my rule is expressed as follows:-

x = # of goals ahead
y = # of minutes left to play

IF x>= y +2 THEN relax ELSE barrack and stress until y=0.
IF y=0 AND x>=0.16 THEN celebrate ELSE unhappy.

[mick13]

I think 24 points as a margin is a massive stage of the game. One more to the leading and its blown out to 5 goals, a tough come back. One to the losing side and it's a mere 18 points.

31 points for me.

Although thats come down a lot this year.... I felt pretty safe at 3 quarter time to be honest.

[Ghost Like]

25 points at the 20 min mark of the last quarter in a low scoring game like yesterday.

[Maxstar22]

When Rooey kicked that amazing goal in the last, the newly recruited and somewhat brainwashed bf of mine started the fat lady knocking on the door actions...I said "way too early". Even when parts of the crowd started singing and chanting about 15 or so mins in, I still wasn't comfortable.

I generally feel ok at about the 25 mins mark if we are at least 25 points in front.

However on saying that, I am never truly comfortable until the final siren sounds.

[battye]

Best to wait until the AFL commission decide whether or not to change the result of the game by ignoring the rules.

So you feel comfortable about 4 days after the final siren?

[Dan Warna]

My safety margin is the second line of the song in the rooms after the game.

i heard fremantle were challenging the outcome of the st kilda v collingwood game...

[Goose is king]

This year with our defense so strong and me being an optimist I am confident with 20 points at any stage of the game.

[saintdooley]

Personally, my rule is expressed as follows:-

x = # of goals ahead
y = # of minutes left to play

IF x>= y +2 THEN relax ELSE barrack and stress until y=0.
IF y=0 AND x>=0.16 THEN celebrate ELSE unhappy.

ooookkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk??????

[jonesy]

Over 39 points.....a lot of sides come back from 38 or 39 points,dunno why,just a magical figure.

[matrix]

around 60 points