At least 16 wins to get top 4 this year

[plugger66]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

[The Redeemer]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

[dcstkfc]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

Port aren't absolute garbage this year

[BigMart]

WCE are a lock
Hawthorn lock
Geelong most likely
Carlton most likely

Collingwood could.....will make 8
Sydney could.......will make 8

Freo, Stk, adel, Ess......7-10

GWS, Melb, GC, WB....bottom 4 easily
Rich, Kangas, Port, Bris......11-14

IMO....ATM

But injuries to key players will change everything

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

Port aren't absolute garbage this year

Exactly. Port were genuinely very good against us and attacked the ball and us relentlessly for 4 quarters. They've been ultra competitive for about the last 6 games they've played this year (including NAB Cup) and also won their last game last year. Judging a team on where they finished the previous year is not wise, as shown by West Coast last year, after they finished bottom the previous year. Port aren't anywhere near as good as West Coast last year, but they've been far better than they were last year, that's for sure.

As far as we're concerned, anything's possible. Lets not forget 1997, when we had one win up after 5 rounds and were probably expected to get the wooden spoon, yet motored home to finish top of the ladder. And who would have predicted us to win 19 on the trot in 2009, after we looked seriously outclassed in the Prelim in 2008?

[stevie]

Anything can happen this year. And it will

[The Redeemer]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

Port aren't absolute garbage this year

They are a bottom 6 side and that does not make them garbage how?

Regardless of the sexy idea that they are a team on the up/improving/insert cliche happy word they still are a bottom level side

[kp83]

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

Port aren't absolute garbage this year

They are a bottom 6 side and that does not make them garbage how?

Regardless of the sexy idea that they are a team on the up/improving/insert cliche happy word they still are a bottom level side

Yeah, but the point is they are better and will knock some other sides off when playing in Adelaide meaning they too will miss out on the 4 points.

[Dr Spaceman]

Port aren't absolute garbage this year

They are a bottom 6 side and that does not make them garbage how?

Regardless of the sexy idea that they are a team on the up/improving/insert cliche happy word they still are a bottom level side

Yeah, but the point is they are better and will knock some other sides off when playing in Adelaide meaning they too will miss out on the 4 points.

Correct.

[gringo]

I like how you did that deflect the fact that you wrote us off early. Remind people of how your still probably right but still have a little out clause in case they are better than you expected. So you heard that on the radio too and though it sounded right. There are not that many bad sides and a few will have a turn around I believe - 16 for a place in the top 4 sounds unlikely still.

[SainterK]

Correct.

Yep, watched the Swans game, Port would of won if not for some individual brilliance from Goodes and co.

Where as, as I expressed on here at the time, I felt like the Saints were still not quite fine tuned coming into that game, weird preseason and all.

They will win more than expected at home.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

We are still not in the same league as the top 4-5 sides, as a top team would have made us pay dearly for our frequent misuse of the ball by foot last night, especially in the 1st half, but the thing is that in a few weeks we could genuinely be back at that level again, if we improve those areas we fell down badly in last night.
The main thing for this group is that they look to have that manic chasing and tackling and attack on the footy that we had in 2009 again, and that will get us a long way if it continues. Improve the ball use and decision making as well and we're right back in business, everything else being equal. (Touch wood)
We're going to be 5th on the ladder with a % of 185 after this weekend, I imagine and that's a good start.

[desertsaint]

One match short of fitness when we played port - that Essendon fiasco played it's part. Should have three wins, and yes it may well haunt us - so to undo it we must beat a top four team - let's start by sending freo packing, hammering the dees into oblivion, and then beating the hawks. If we are five - one we're on track.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Spot on desertsaint. We're just taking it three weeks at a time!

[battye]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Agreed. The Port game is going to haunt us considering Port are garbage.

I agree. We just can't afford to drop games like that. While I admit that Port have improved since last year, they are still rubbish - and it worries me that we lost that match. Won't be convinced that we're a contender (and the Port game was a fluke) unless we beat a team like the Eagles by 6 goals or so. No stumbling over the line; comprehensive victories.

[whiskers3614]

How much do we need to beat Shockers by ?
,,

[Richter]

WCE are a lock
Hawthorn lock
Geelong most likely
Carlton most likely

Collingwood could.....will make 8
Sydney could.......will make 8

Freo, Stk, adel, Ess......7-10

GWS, Melb, GC, WB....bottom 4 easily
Rich, Kangas, Port, Bris......11-14

IMO....ATM

But injuries to key players will change everything

I would amend that....

WCE, Carlton, Hawks - clear top 3
Cats a rung below along with Pies, Swans, Freo and us - battling it out for the last spot in the 4.
Adel, Ess, NM, Richmond - trying to snag the last spot in the 8 away from any in the group above who may flounder eg Pies at the moment.

[mr six o'clock]

With so many poor sides this year you will need at least 16 wins to get top 4 this year. It may even stretch to 17 wins. We will hopefully win our next 2 and then the hard run starts. We must then win at least 2 of the next 4 to be any hope of finishing top 4. I still have us as a 7th to 10th side but you always live in hope. After 11 games the worst we really can be is 8 wins and 3 losses to have any hope of winning a flag because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

agree

I think you will need to win 13 games just to get into the eight . in the past , 11 wins plus percentage has just about got you in each year , however i'm sure this year it will be a log jam come september.
WC , Carl , hawks top 4
cats, pies , swans , freo , ess , crows . any of these sides could go top four , or could even miss out on the eight .
north and the tigers could go anywhere from five to twelve .

and of course the Saints have to figure in there somewhere , hopefully top four
Its vital we win 6 of the next 9 matches going into the mid season bye !

[The Redeemer]

Correct.

Yep, watched the Swans game, Port would of won if not for some individual brilliance from Goodes and co.

Where as, as I expressed on here at the time, I felt like the Saints were still not quite fine tuned coming into that game, weird preseason and all.

They will win more than expected at home.

But they didn't win and the Swans had Goodes and co. so no reason to cheapen the win as the Swans did what they had to do when they had no choice but to do it.

We did not and paid the price and lost a get-able 4 points because of it.

[SaintPav]

Typical round one result but very costly eg Crows beat Hawks round one last year and were hopless.

Port came to play and we were asleep in the first and there's the game. Hopefully we can make up for it by beating someone we are expected to lose to.

We have quite a bit of improvement in us but lets face it, dogs were not much chop last night.

[Devilhead]

because we all know you cannot win the flag from outside the top 4.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't

[Scollop]

I like what I see so far with our senior coach. He seems to me to be a bloke that judges his players hearts as much as their stats and kpi's. He knows his footy back to front and inside out and he'll make sure that the team improves on last years finish. I reckon you read too much into where a team will finish based on the result from last year. If we sneak into the the top 4 anything can happen and if we make it with 14 or 15 wins, then so be it.

With our skipper and his leadership group all fit and firing and the young blokes playing their part we will challenge again sooner than the likes of p66 and the media experts will have you believe. D'ya know why the saints team post GF '09 and post GF '10 wasn't improving? RL didn't value the energy, enthusiasm and spark that talented youngsters would've brought to the playing list and the lack of development in 08, 09 and 10 took its toll last year. Lenny summed it up in his post match after this question from DKing; Do you think the old players are having a impact on the younger players? Lenny's reply went something like; "I think they're having an impact on the senior guys to tell you the truth, with their big preseason and their enthusiasm!!"

I don't agree that we are at best around 7-10. How can ya say that when we've got Lenny back now!!!! Gwilt will be fit soon and if Grammy can take to the park and display some of that '09 form...then who knows?!?... Lyon had at his disposal a fantastic leadership group of players who had served as captains in their own right and had bled for the club and were committed to doing whatever it took to try and make their own history. The leadership and character of Roo and Lenny, Bally, BJ and Chips and NickyDal were the perfect blokes to have as role models for all players at the club during Lyon's tenure. These blokes were peaking and dragging the blokes underneath with them, and it was mainly due to these stars in our team and their efforts that this team achieved the results of '09/'10. NOW these blokes are at the disposal of Scott Watters (minus Luke Ball of coarse).

[gringo]

We were bastardised by the umpires in that game against Port also which didn't help our cause. We will go better than many expect this year, top four who knows but we are still in it until we're not. Our core will know some tricks by now and won't die wondering. Teams like Carlton and West Coast even the Hawks have to over come some serious psychological hurdles to even get to a GF. Collingwood is starting to look a little frayed around the edges and surely Geelong can't front up again.

[plugger66]

We were bastardised by the umpires in that game against Port also which didn't help our cause. We will go better than many expect this year, top four who knows but we are still in it until we're not. Our core will know some tricks by now and won't die wondering. Teams like Carlton and West Coast even the Hawks have to over come some serious psychological hurdles to even get to a GF. Collingwood is starting to look a little frayed around the edges and surely Geelong can't front up again.

If you are going to bring up psychological issues then this thread is dead.

[SaintPav]

We were bastardised by the umpires in that game against Port also which didn't help our cause. We will go better than many expect this year, top four who knows but we are still in it until we're not. Our core will know some tricks by now and won't die wondering. Teams like Carlton and West Coast even the Hawks have to over come some serious psychological hurdles to even get to a GF. Collingwood is starting to look a little frayed around the edges and surely Geelong can't front up again.

Do you really believe our midfield is as good as those teams and that out backline with Simpkin and Newnes can hold up against teams with crack mids and decent forwards.

Dont't get carried away by beating GC and the Dogs.