The Run Home - Results I want to see
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The Run Home - Results I want to see
The following results would see us end up in 6th with a first home final against the Eagles.
Nice scenario, but we have to win all our remaining games!
We can only hope.
Rnd 20
Eagles v Cats
Crows v Dockers
Saints v Demons
Suns v Giants
Swans v Pies
Blues v Lions
Hawks v Power
Tigers v Dogs
Bombers v Kangas
Rnd 21
Cats v Saints
Bombers v Blues
Giants v Demons
Dockers v Tigers
Pies v Kangas
Lions v Crows
Power v Eagles
Dogs v Swans
Hawks v Suns
Rnd 22
Tigers v Bombers
Power v Lions
Saints v Giants
Swans v Hawks
Eagles v Pies
Suns v Blues
Cats v Dogs
Kangas v Dockers
Demons v Crows
Rnd 23
Blues v Saints
Bombers v Pies
Tigers v Power
Hawks v Eagles
Cats v Swans
Crows v Suns
Lions v Dogs
Giants v Kangas
Dockers v Demons
Nice scenario, but we have to win all our remaining games!
We can only hope.
Rnd 20
Eagles v Cats
Crows v Dockers
Saints v Demons
Suns v Giants
Swans v Pies
Blues v Lions
Hawks v Power
Tigers v Dogs
Bombers v Kangas
Rnd 21
Cats v Saints
Bombers v Blues
Giants v Demons
Dockers v Tigers
Pies v Kangas
Lions v Crows
Power v Eagles
Dogs v Swans
Hawks v Suns
Rnd 22
Tigers v Bombers
Power v Lions
Saints v Giants
Swans v Hawks
Eagles v Pies
Suns v Blues
Cats v Dogs
Kangas v Dockers
Demons v Crows
Rnd 23
Blues v Saints
Bombers v Pies
Tigers v Power
Hawks v Eagles
Cats v Swans
Crows v Suns
Lions v Dogs
Giants v Kangas
Dockers v Demons
Some time soon.
Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
On the outlook of things.. If we win the final 4 games we are still a good chance to make finals. North and Freo play each other. Essendon are fading and West coast haven't got an easy run home either.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Port v Eagles result in round 21 isn't likely. However, you have them winning round 22 against the pies so might cancel out.
We'll need to win the last 4 which will have us playing finals. Harder said than done. Cats game is obviously the key.
We'll need to win the last 4 which will have us playing finals. Harder said than done. Cats game is obviously the key.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
...but they'll win the last one so that puts them three games ahead of where we are now. just to get above them we'd have to beat one of carlton and geelong.felix wrote:The Kangas could easy drop the next 3
also keep in mind that the kangas losing those three means both freo and essendon winning.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
We won't miss if we win all 4 but.....
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
A lot of the games have no real bearing on were we finish, we're looking at taking Bomber spot in the finals if all goes to plan.
Some time soon.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.Turbo wrote:A lot of the games have no real bearing on were we finish, we're looking at taking Bomber spot in the finals if all goes to plan.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Not really. The statistical probability of winning first division tatts is higher than being knocked off by someone.saintspremiers wrote:What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
i reckon 25% chance of beating geelong, 50% chance of beating carlton, 100% chance of winning the other two. so for mine that's a 12.5% chance overall - one in eight.SaintPav wrote:Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.bergholt wrote:i reckon 25% chance of beating geelong, 50% chance of beating carlton, 100% chance of winning the other two. so for mine that's a 12.5% chance overall - one in eight.SaintPav wrote:Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
fair point. and to be honest, if we beat geelong then our chance of beating carlton goes up to about 75%, i reckon, because they'll be essentially out of it at that point and we'll be in pretty sweet form with three wins on the trot.SaintPav wrote:That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Agree. I thing we have a 30-40% chance of beating Cats.bergholt wrote:fair point. and to be honest, if we beat geelong then our chance of beating carlton goes up to about 75%, i reckon, because they'll be essentially out of it at that point and we'll be in pretty sweet form with three wins on the trot.SaintPav wrote:That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Pretty simple equation. We win our remaining games we make the finals. I had us losing against the Swans and Pies and winning the remaining games and making the finals, however that was when the Cats weren't looking to flash. That'll be the make or break game.
Freo beating the Weagles put a spanner in the works. They are the form team (along with Syd) and could end up with 14 wins. The Dons are gone and the Weagles aren't safe. The Cats now look a sure thing.
Freo beating the Weagles put a spanner in the works. They are the form team (along with Syd) and could end up with 14 wins. The Dons are gone and the Weagles aren't safe. The Cats now look a sure thing.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
We could win our last four and still miss out.
Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!
Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
We could I suppose but a lot of the teams competing for the remaining 4 spots (including WC cos they could easily lose 3/4) play each other.saintspremiers wrote:We could win our last four and still miss out.
Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!
Some critical games over the remaining 4 rounds including the teams competing for those spots:
Round 20:
WC V Gee
Ess V NM
Round 21:
Gee V St K
Ess V Carl
Round 22:
NM V Freo
Round 23:
Carl V St K
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
Essendon v Tigers is also a critical one..Tiger will be all over them but will find a way to lose.Old Mate wrote:We could I suppose but a lot of the teams competing for the remaining 4 spots (including WC cos they could easily lose 3/4) play each other.saintspremiers wrote:We could win our last four and still miss out.
Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!
Some critical games over the remaining 4 rounds including the teams competing for those spots:
Round 20:
WC V Gee
Ess V NM
Round 21:
Gee V St K
Ess V Carl
Round 22:
NM V Freo
Round 23:
Carl V St K
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
If we beat Geelong, I can see te cats missing the finals. Shame they beat the Hawks last week, they would've been a near shoe in to miss.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
What a strange comment. Generaly someone wins tatts every week!saintspremiers wrote:What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!
Anyway I have time to waste.
Some time soon.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
I was messing around with the ladder predictor and also came up with the same scenario.SaintPav wrote:We won't miss if we win all 4 but.....
If we drop one game, we're as good as gone. If we win them all we're in. Big ask to finish off the rest of the season undefeated, but it's what we need to do if we're going anywhere in the 2012 finals.
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Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
British Open 2012 - Ernie Els started the last nine holes 6 shots off the lead, but everyone else crumbled, and
he won the thing. It can happen. This season ain't cooked yet.
he won the thing. It can happen. This season ain't cooked yet.
Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
philtee wrote:British Open 2012 - Ernie Els started the last nine holes 6 shots off the lead, but everyone else crumbled, and
he won the thing. It can happen. This season ain't cooked yet.
Re: The Run Home - Results I want to see
I think that's fair and reasonablemarkp wrote:Win the next 8 and I'll be happy.