Bottoming out well

[Teflon]

Talking to a Carlton mate and how frustrated they are;
Have sat mediocre side for some years with a list that has more holes than Swiss cheese and are an injury away from imploding.
Seriously what is the point of stagnating 5-9 for a number of years and recruiting a Daisy?

Anyway, we all know in 3 years GWS/GC will be a force - they have to much talent. I'm genuinely happen to bottom out properly for 3 years, drink deep from draft on 2 conditions:

1. We snag at least 1 no 1. Pick in that time and rest top 3-5
2. We only bother spending any cash for free agent in year 3 to build into 2018 and beyond and as long as that player is a genuine match winner (I'd prefer a KPP to be honest but a proven gun goal kicking mid might sway me.....surely GWS cant keep Patton/Boyd/Cameron et al when the cap squeeze comes).

I reckon North and some of these middling sides (Richmond too) had better get a move on cause they could be caught in a GWS/GC b!tch fight like nothing we've seen.

[Wayne42]

I'm looking forward to GWS and GCS peaking, i find it fascinating to see how the AFL's most recent love childs fare.

Good luck to them if they are successful.

[Teflon]

True but in reality I could care less

It's all about timing and staying in the black while bide our time

I'm looking forward to the day the hype is again talking bout St Kildas gun kids ..... when the next Riewoldt is in and we are on the rise and feared. This time lets not have 6-8 super players with massive gap to plodders ..... I want a side with quality on every line

All in good time....

[Darth Vader]

Talking to a Carlton mate and how frustrated they are;
Have sat mediocre side for some years with a list that has more holes than Swiss cheese and are an injury away from imploding.
Seriously what is the point of stagnating 5-9 for a number of years and recruiting a Daisy? Anyway, we all know in 3 years GWS/GC will be a force - they have to much talent. I'm genuinely happen to bottom out properly for 3 years, drink deep from draft on.

Still no guarantees even if you do bottom out properly. Carlton bottomed out magnificently - 3 number 1 draft picks in Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer and still only rose to mediocrity. Hope we get it right.

[Rosco]

carlton had the number 1 picks, but what did they do with their 2nd / 3rd round picks and the rest? can't have been much.

[BigMart]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

[stinger]

Talking to a Carlton mate and how frustrated they are;
Have sat mediocre side for some years with a list that has more holes than Swiss cheese and are an injury away from imploding.
Seriously what is the point of stagnating 5-9 for a number of years and recruiting a Daisy? Anyway, we all know in 3 years GWS/GC will be a force - they have to much talent. I'm genuinely happen to bottom out properly for 3 years, drink deep from draft on.

Still no guarantees even if you do bottom out properly. Carlton bottomed out magnificently - 3 number 1 draft picks in Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer and still only rose to mediocrity. Hope we get it right.

gws have 27 ......i repeat...27 first round draft picks.....we are never going to get near them.....or that no of picks...

[BigMart]

Correct

Not for ten years.... We went from 2004-2011... 8 years

Without halft the picks of either of them

[maverick]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

Yet it worked for the Pies, Hawks twice, West Coast, Brisbane…
When did the Bombers bottom out?

[Con Gorozidis]

Dockers bottomed out twice to get where they are now.
They also drafted magnificently in 2008.

[Spinner]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

Yet it worked for the Pies, Hawks twice, West Coast, Brisbane…
When did the Bombers bottom out?

Exactly. What a poor post.

[plugger66]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

Apart from Geelong and Sydney everyone bottoms out. Lets face it you havent got a clue on the better method.

[bigcarl]

gws have 27 ......i repeat...27 first round draft picks.....we are never going to get near them.....or that no of picks...

That is a frightening stat, Stinger. We may have to plan a raid on them when their success - which is coming quicker than expected - puts pressure on their salary cap.

[Verdun66]

They've ruined the 'comp'. Under did the early franchises, over did the recent ones.

[QuestionOfAccuracy]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

That's been the key to the continued success of the likes of Hawthorn, Pies, Swans, Cats: churn your list annually; draft well; develop your talent (including rookies) and trade smartly for recycled players.

Bottoming out effectively gives you the chance to start with a "clean slate" and does guarantee that you'll get good access to high draft picks. But that's about it in terms of guarantees. What you do with those picks and that cap space is the critical part.

[BigMart]

Correct

[Moorabbin Man]

Plus Judd

Bottoming out has rarely proved successful

Us, Melbourne (twice) Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Ricmond have gone right down.... Never won

It guarantees ZERO.... Not even a recipe for success

Hawthorn and Collingwood did rebuild well, but it took sustained time ATT

Better method
Get up there... Churn your list over gradually regardless of winning, keep bringing kids through the bottom... Let the top take care of the team performance.
Never stand still... Personal or GP wise... A mistake we made 2010 onwards... We got no better than 2009... The rest of the comp improves, so must you

Don't take this as an endorsement for tanking, in fact I never want us to get another wooden spoon. Bottoming out was very successful for us (albeit not the ultimate success) and we did build a great list. Melbourne over did it, they were emerging in 2009 yet they got stupidly greedy and kept tanking. Those buffoons with a huge sense of entitlement, Carlton would not have a clue of how to get success without buying it. The plain fact is that the last time Carlton were a power was with a team they had bought not built and they still have not got a clue.

[Con Gorozidis]

If you dont draft and recruit well - you cant stay at the top. End of story.

Hawks bottommed out and picked up a bunch of good players as early draft picks (Birchall, Franklin Roughie, Hodge, Lewis) . But then they rebooted with 3 guns like Gibson, Gunstan, Lake and Burgoyne. And in the meantime they drafted ok (Issac Smith etc).


Anyway there is no point us discussing this - that chance has well and truly gone. We have to start from scratch using the draft.
Complete rebuild.

[Stephen Theodore]

gws have 27 ......i repeat...27 first round draft picks.....we are never going to get near them.....or that no of picks...

That is a frightening stat, Stinger. We may have to plan a raid on them when their success - which is coming quicker than expected - puts pressure on their salary cap.

Agree, an amazing stat.

GWS can't hang onto three gun forwards forever, nor can they hang onto all the other 24 first rounders for too long

We should be in a great position to pick some ripe fruit off the GWS tree in a couple of years, hopefully our timing will be spot on.

[bergholt]

They've ruined the 'comp'. Under did the early franchises, over did the recent ones.

I wouldn't worry too much. Brisbane were one of the most dominant teams of all time - three flags and four grand finals in a row is unbelievable. Since that last grand final they've finished 10th or lower for eight out of nine seasons. Won only 40% of their games.

It's pretty hard to create a dynasty which lasts longer than a few years in this game.

[The Redeemer]

Talking to a Carlton mate and how frustrated they are;
Have sat mediocre side for some years with a list that has more holes than Swiss cheese and are an injury away from imploding.
Seriously what is the point of stagnating 5-9 for a number of years and recruiting a Daisy?

Anyway, we all know in 3 years GWS/GC will be a force - they have to much talent. I'm genuinely happen to bottom out properly for 3 years, drink deep from draft on 2 conditions:

1. We snag at least 1 no 1. Pick in that time and rest top 3-5
2. We only bother spending any cash for free agent in year 3 to build into 2018 and beyond and as long as that player is a genuine match winner (I'd prefer a KPP to be honest but a proven gun goal kicking mid might sway me.....surely GWS cant keep Patton/Boyd/Cameron et al when the cap squeeze comes).

I reckon North and some of these middling sides (Richmond too) had better get a move on cause they could be caught in a GWS/GC b!tch fight like nothing we've seen.

Agreed. We somehow found a way to be a good side at the right time and we are now a crappy side at a good time via list management.

For years the Kangas and Blues have not been poor enough to be a bottom 4 side and not good enough to be a top 4 side.

In the end, those are the two most important points of the ladder.

So embrace it, we are going to perform terribly for 12-24 months however weeding out the good from the bad (re youngens) is exciting in itself.

[bergholt]

carlton had the number 1 picks, but what did they do with their 2nd / 3rd round picks and the rest? can't have been much.

2002
45: Kade Simpson, 60: Cameron Croad, 72: Brad Fisher, 79: Karl Norman, 84: Mick Martyn, R1: Jon McCormick, R17: Laurie Angwin, and some other duds

2003
2: Andrew Walker, 57: Ricky Mott, 63: Glen Bowyer, 69: Jordan Bannister, 72: Adrian Deluca, 75: Steve Kenna, PS1: Nick Stevens, R1: Andrew Carrazzo, R34: Adam Bentick, R62: Setanta O'hAilpin, and some other duds

2004
9: Jordan Russell, 25: Adam Hartlett, 41: Luke Blackwell (fs), 73: Chris Bryan, 77: Anthony Raso, PS3: Eddie Betts, and some other duds

2005
1: Marc Murphy, 4: Josh Kennedy, 20: Paul Bower, 36: Jake Edwards, PS1: Dylan McLaren, and some other duds

2006
1: Bryce Gibbs, 17: Shaun Hampson, 19: Shaun Grigg, 35: Mark Austin, 51: Clint Benjamin, 67: Joe Anderson, PS1: Cain Ackland, PS9: Cameron Cloke, R1: Sam Jacobs, R17: Michael Jamison, and another dud

2007
1: Matthew Kreuzer, 36: Stephen Browne, 46: Dennis Armfield, PS1: Darren Pfeiffer, R1: Aaron Joseph, R34: David Ellard, and some other duds

2008
6: Chris Yarran, 40: Mitch Robinson, 65: Rhys O'Keeffe, 80: Caleb Tiller, PS1: Chris Johnson, R6: Jeff Garlett, and some other duds

2009
12: Kane Lucas, 43: Marcus Davies, 59: Rohan Kerr, R1: Jaryd Cachia, R44: Levi Casboult, R56: Simon White, R73: Zach Tuohy, and some other duds

2010
18: Matthew Watson, 34: Patrick McCarthy, 42: Luke Mitchell, 67: Andrew McInnes, 70: Nick Duigan, R18: Ed Curnow, and some other duds

2011
22: Josh Bootsma, 44: Sam Rowe, 62: Dylan Buckley, R14: Tom Bell, and some other duds

2012
11: Troy Menzel, 35: Tom Temay, 54: Nick Graham


So yeah, you're right, they didn't do much with their later picks. Jordan Russell the only one of their early picks to have failed to go with it, and obviously Kennedy and Hampson were sacrificed for the greater good. But not much later in the draft. Carrazzo good value for pick 1 in the rookie draft, Betts and Garlett good value at rookie picks 3 and 6, Jamison excellent value for rookie pick 17. Ellard OK for late in the rookie draft, Mitch Robinson pretty solid at pick 40.

Even with top picks, if you draft poorly for years on end you can condemn yourselves to mediocrity. Murphy, Kreuzer, Gibbs, Walker, Yarran are all top 6 picks but not good enough to carry the whole team on their own and the rest aren't good enough to help out sufficiently. Let's hope we avoid that same fate.

[Teflon]

Well said Redeemer.

Marto you're off with birds

Pretending that we will somehow "win and churn" our list without bottoming out us dumb and ignores the fact that our current top core of players are OLD and we need a new crop. Only way to get this is by bottoming out - NOT hanging round 5-9 never really being anything more than nuisance value

Geeling don't count - father son gifts prop them up

Pies and Hawks have a nucleus of good drafting at their core and so a basis to build from. Our nucleus is ageing with a massive gap to 1 possible A grader in Steven.

It's complete re-boot time folks and then top up with cash out for a gun free agent at right time (unless Boyd discovers undying love for Saints then cheque book opens earlier)

IF we get the core right THIS time Id hope we surround then with better quality than Eddy, Mcqualter and co

[HitTheBoundary]

There's also the "being a good club" factor.
We've already bottomed out, and will accordingly get early draft picks. So on top of making quality picks, we need to keep the new talent together. It's no good getting early picks if in a few years they all want to leave. I want to see Billings and Dunstan etc. peak at the Saints, not elsewhere. I want the TAC players to attend the pre-draft interviews hoping that the Saints draft them.

In this regard the recently outlined club plan is important as a "vision" to sell to both the members, players, sponsors, etc. that says we are proactively working towards success.

[Old Mate]

I'm not too sure if we are rebuilding at the right time (not that we can choose) and hard to see us challenging around 2020. By that stage all those talented guys GWS and GC picked up will be around the 25-28 mark. They'll be at their peak around then. I see the expansion clubs coming back to the pack a few years after. 2016-2022 = expansion club flags IMO. Theres a good chance they have 3-4 each.