Hitouts vs WCE

[samoht]

For those who rate hitouts - we lost the hitouts 60 to 29, yet won the clearances 43 to 36 !!!!

Yes, Natanui jumps high - big deal.

[plugger66]

For those who rate hitouts - we lost the hitouts 60 to 29, yet won the clearances 43 to 26 !!!!

Yes, Natanui jumps high - big deal.

With you all along. Most overated stat in footy. Do you know the hit outs to advantage?

[Spinner]

That's like me saying:


West Coast kicked more goals but had less clearances so clearances: big deal



But I won't, because it's stupid.

[Spinner]

For those who rate hitouts - we lost the hitouts 60 to 29, yet won the clearances 43 to 26 !!!!

Yes, Natanui jumps high - big deal.

With you all along. Most overated stat in footy. Do you know the hit outs to advantage?

Looks like that stat was corrected and wasn't such a big difference.

This is where we disagree.

How about a quality of clearance stat?

[samoht]

Yes, spinner - but for those who think that hitouts lead to clearances, and are in awe of Natanui's leap - maybe they need to rethink things.

[plugger66]

That's like me saying:


West Coast kicked more goals but had less clearances so clearances: big deal



But I won't, because it's stupid.

But dont hit outs help in clearances? And if the answer is no then how do they help at all.

[dragit]

Why don't we just start with 4 mids in the centre?

3 vs 4 when their ruckman palms the ball down.

[joffaboy]

That's like me saying:


West Coast kicked more goals but had less clearances so clearances: big deal



But I won't, because it's stupid.

But dont hit outs help in clearances? And if the answer is no then how do they help at all.

But we lost the hitouts but won the clearances, so our hitouts didn't help our clearances, actually if every hitout of the Saints led to a clearance, 17 of WCE hitouts led to clearances

[plugger66]

Why don't we just start with 4 mids in the centre?

3 vs 4 when their ruckman palms the ball down.

Because if you didnt contest they would kill you.

[Spinner]

That's like me saying:


West Coast kicked more goals but had less clearances so clearances: big deal



But I won't, because it's stupid.

But dont hit outs help in clearances? And if the answer is no then how do they help at all.

Maybe they helped get all 36 WCE clearances.

Same could be said for clearance and goals.


Bringing one isolated game stat which is negative to hit outs and clearances not the way to go. Let's get every game out and measure the correlation. Even then, the quality of clearance is difficult to measure.

But if people want to argue that NicNat and Cox don't dominate the ruck and influence their team significantly from there... Well good luck!

[plugger66]

That's like me saying:


West Coast kicked more goals but had less clearances so clearances: big deal



But I won't, because it's stupid.

But dont hit outs help in clearances? And if the answer is no then how do they help at all.

Maybe they helped get all 36 WCE clearances.

Same could be said for clearance and goals.


Bringing one isolated game stat which is negative to hit outs and clearances not the way to go. Let's get every game out and measure the correlation. Even then, the quality of clearance is difficult to measure.

But if people want to argue that NicNat and Cox don't dominate the ruck and influence there team significantly from there... Well good luck!

I would never argue that because they are so good around the ground. Im trying to work out how hit outs help if it isnt clearances. Warnock gets a lot of hit outs but no one raves about him. The adalaide ruckman had the most hit outs to advantage last year and they struggled. The year before he wasnt top 10 with that stat and Adelaide had a great year. I just dont see any correlation on the scorebord with hits and winning.

[WinnersOnly]

Its the hit outs that lead to immediate scores or score assists that really make a difference, it would be interesting to see what that stat was.

What I did notice was that the team didn't allow WCE the easy forward gaols from ruck contests we had in the past. I think if AR had his time again - for what he got out of Maister he would have played Longer and used Hickey forward more.

[samoht]

Cox is good around the ground - so I rate him.
Natanui, not so much.

Ruckmen's real worth is around the ground - that's why Blake was played in that role.
He just needed to compete in the ruck and be good around the ground.

[PADDLEPOP1001]

It's funny how a good dominant ruckman always go well in September!

[plugger66]

It's funny how a good dominant ruckman always go well in September!

I would suggest that sides who make the finals action have good players in most positions. Sandilands smashed the Hawks in the ruck last GF but they lost.

[dragit]

Obviously a big % of hitouts just go to a 50/50 contest, which then relies on inside mids beating their opponents for a clearance. However the few that lead to a clearance without a contest are invaluable, the more of these the better. In a close match, if a ruckmen can palm down 2 stoppages that lead directly to goals, that could be the difference.

Eg 90 hitouts last night, maybe 80 went to a contest... 10 down the throats of their mids. We win the clearances overall, but the 10 clean ones they get are the difference in the end.

As spinner said, some stats in isolation don't show the whole picture.

[Spinner]

I would never argue that because they are so good around the ground. Im trying to work out how hit outs help if it isnt clearances. Warnock gets a lot of hit outs but no one raves about him. The adalaide ruckman had the most hit outs to advantage last year and they struggled. The year before he wasnt top 10 with that stat and Adelaide had a great year. I just dont see any correlation on the scorebord with hits and winning.

I'm not arguing that hit outs don't effect clearances... I'm saying that brining one instance where they don't correlate positively is like me brining up my stat that west coast still won the game with less clearances.

It's like saying contested possession don't influence the game result because one game last week had a team winning with less contested possession.


A lot of factors influence hit outs and clearances.

Some would be quality of hit outs, midfield quality, opposition midfield quality, defensive setup of midfield, defensive setup of opposition ruckman.

And above all, the quality of clearances is important. If west coast had 36 running out of contested area clearances and we had 43 ball on boot kicks that half resulted in turnovers.... I would like the former.

[samoht]

It's funny how a good dominant ruckman always go well in September!

Cox and Natanui will be there in September.
The best ruck combination had 31 more hitouts than us - yet we won the clearances by 7!
q.e.d., hitouts are overrated.

[Spinner]

Obviously a big % of hitouts just go to a 50/50 contest, which then relies on inside mids beating their opponents for a clearance. However the few that lead to a clearance without a contest are invaluable, the more of these the better. In a close match, if a ruckmen can palm down 2 stoppages that lead directly to goals, that could be the difference.

Eg 90 hitouts last night, maybe 80 went to a contest... 10 down the throats of their mids. We win the clearances overall, but the 10 clean ones they get are the difference in the end.

As spinner said, some stats in isolation don't show the whole picture.

Exactly.


As I said, you'll find in the media it's the ex forwards that don't rate ruckman.

Not sure what position GT played; might have been an exception. I wouldn't doubt that possibility.

[plugger66]

Obviously a big % of hitouts just go to a 50/50 contest, which then relies on inside mids beating their opponents for a clearance. However the few that lead to a clearance without a contest are invaluable, the more of these the better. In a close match, if a ruckmen can palm down 2 stoppages that lead directly to goals, that could be the difference.

Eg 90 hitouts last night, maybe 80 went to a contest... 10 down the throats of their mids. We win the clearances overall, but the 10 clean ones they get are the difference in the end.

As spinner said, some stats in isolation don't show the whole picture.

But just plain hit outs means jack when looking at stats. Obviously if you get 2 goals out of it then thats great but when looking at stats you dont see anything like that. Also there is no correlation to sides winning hit out or even hit outs to advantage and winning the game.

[dragit]

Absolutely, from memory there is also not much correlation between winning clearances and winning games.

The ladder for clearances doesn't look anything like the W/L ladder.

Clearly we should still be aiming to win clearances and hitouts though.

[samoht]

If we were to assume a correlation between hitouts and clearances- then another way we can look at it is this -

from only half their hitouts, we had 15% more clearances.

So 1 of our hitouts is worth 2.10 of their hitouts (and that's the best ruck combination we're talking about, here).

Natanui's leap is for nought.

[dragit]

If we were to assume a correlation between hitouts and clearances- then another way we can look at it is this -

from only half their hitouts, we had 15% more clearances.

So 1 of our hitouts is worth 2.10 of their hitouts (and that's the best ruck combination we're talking about, here).

Natanui's leap is for nought.

I bet they are spewing jack watts didn't slip through to #2

[plugger66]

Absolutely, from memory there is also not much correlation between winning clearances and winning games.

The ladder for clearances doesn't look anything like the W/L ladder.

Clearly we should still be aiming to win clearances and hitouts though.

You are probably right about clearances and winning games. Havent looked up that stat. And yes we should be trying to win clearences but if i said to you we will lose hit outs but we have a ruckman that may kick 3 goals in some games every week or we have a Warnock who will win hit outs every week but never really kick goals then which ruckman would you take. I trade hit outs for goals every day of the week. There arent many players who can do both. Even Sandilands doesnt really kick goals.

[joffaboy]

If we were to assume a correlation between hitouts and clearances- then another way we can look at it is this -

from only half their hitouts, we had 15% more clearances.

So 1 of our hitouts is worth 2.10 of their hitouts (and that's the best ruck combination we're talking about, here).

Natanui's leap is for nought.

Natanui was kept quiet by Hickey when the ball hit the ground and nullified his second efforts. He was also kept quiet around the ground