Can the 2012-17 cycle compare to 1999-2004?

[evertonfc]

Here's a theory of comparable development based on our recent past.

It is a flawed argument, of course, but an interesting one all the same. Does it have any merit?

1999 = 2012 (Chapter closes on a decent team that misses the finals. Cliff beckons)
2000 = 2013 (The floor collapses and we fall through to the basement)
2001 = 2014 (Good kids are introduced but wins are few and far between)
2002 = 2015 (A genuine block of new talent is on the park every week, losses still mount)
2003 = 2016 (Winning regularly. Progress towards the eight)
2004 = 2017 (The premiership window opens)

My gut feeling is that because we're not going to access the freak batch of clutch talent - Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Maguire, Montagna - who pretty much all delivered from day one, we're probably at least one year behind in the development curve.

We picked up some gun additions in 2001-04 who probably helped accelerate that "winning" curve a year ahead - Gehrig, Hamill, Penny, Voss, Guerra, Ackland and Powell all played positive roles of some sort (yes, some more than others, clearly) in 2003-2005.

What does become apparent between comparing the two eras makes for interesting perspective.

- Our rise from bottom four in 2002 to 2004 was possibly too swift. We had no finals experience in 2004 and were arguably scarred by that in September in 2005, 2006 and 2008.
- We had a better "best 22" in the 2003-2005 than we'll ever have in 2016-onwards (due to amazing picks and great trading) but I think we'll now have a much deeper, more even squad. The number of poor players we carried at the lower end of our list in that period was high - we seem to have a much more consistent spread now.
- There was no Gold Coast or GWS hoovering up key talent. That presents its own problems going forward.

Conclusion:
We won't be challenging for a flag in 2017 like we did in our equivalent year (2004). It is too soon for this crop; not least because Gold Coast will be absolutely peaking at that period and GWS will be a year off, with Port Adelaide battle-hardened. We just don't have the natural talent. We'll only be competitive by becoming extremely hard working and honest (think Sydney). We may be able to break into the 6-8 slot.

We're a better show in the 2018-2019-2000 period. Provided the club continues the maxim of best available youth in the next three-year cycle, with a sprinkling of elite YOUNG free agents - plus a couple of cheap recycled players who deliver excellent bang-for-buck (think Powell and Voss) - and we're a really good chance of stockpiling as much talent as anyone outside the GWS-GC duopoly.

To give an idea of the players we should seek, I'd sidestep lobbying for Patrick Dangerfield. He's 26 next year. Not old, but I want someone who will be 21-22 next year - you never know if Ollie Wines, Lachie Whitfield, Dylan Sheil, etc would like to come home to Vic. Go-home factor still very much at play.

I like the way we've traded in the past two windows, seeking kids who've only played a year or two at a club and then swooping before they've bedded down (Longer, Bruce, Hickey, Membrey, with Savage and Roberton a touch older).

In short, I think we'll have to wait an extra year to get up there, but we're also a decent chance to make a GF in our first cycle (second cycle was 2008-11) because of our depth. In 2004 and 2005, when we needed to have depth in September as injuries mounted, we actually had very little. Hopefully we'll have a better squad to counter that with this time around.

[citywest]

I am really hoping that our trading continues the way of the last 3 or 4 years...ie B. Goddard, Dal Santo, McEvoy & Stanley. Memo to Simon.....I'm not baiting here I'm just expressing an opinion. At the end of the season (assuming we finish last), if Steven gets a great offer I don't believe we should match it. Let him go and we get Draft pick 2. If we are offered pick 12 again for Armitage we take this as well. I know this will weaken us again in the short term but my reasoning is this. Come 2016 the rest of our list will be better able to soak up the losses of Steven and Armo to the extent that we will not be any worse than 2015. Imagine if we went into this years draft with picks 1,2,12,20 and 38 to add to our current under 24 team. That would then just about complete our rebuild but it would also delay our premiership window by another 2 years. This is very important considering the juggernauts that the emerging Suns and Giants will be. I want St Kilda to be peaking from 2020 onwards so hopefully by then the Suns and the Giants have already won 2 flags each and are on the way down.

St Kilda have been brave with their trading over the last 4 years. Will they be brave enough to do the above? I doubt it. I reckon the Steven scenario is likely but I doubt they would also allow Armo to go as well. If it were up to me, I would do it. I have nothing against either player. It is just a strategic move that I would definitely make.

Before people bag me, have a look at GCS and GWS under 24's and compare that to ours. We are light years away.

[plugger66]

I am really hoping that our trading continues the way of the last 3 or 4 years...ie B. Goddard, Dal Santo, McEvoy & Stanley. Memo to Simon.....I'm not baiting here I'm just expressing an opinion. At the end of the season (assuming we finish last), if Steven gets a great offer I don't believe we should match it. Let him go and we get Draft pick 2. If we are offered pick 12 again for Armitage we take this as well. I know this will weaken us again in the short term but my reasoning is this. Come 2016 the rest of our list will be better able to soak up the losses of Steven and Armo to the extent that we will not be any worse than 2015. Imagine if we went into this years draft with picks 1,2,12,20 and 38 to add to our current under 24 team. That would then just about complete our rebuild but it would also delay our premiership window by another 2 years. This is very important considering the juggernauts that the emerging Suns and Giants will be. I want St Kilda to be peaking from 2020 onwards so hopefully by then the Suns and the Giants have already won 2 flags each and are on the way down.

St Kilda have been brave with their trading over the last 4 years. Will they be brave enough to do the above? I doubt it. I reckon the Steven scenario is likely but I doubt they would also allow Armo to go as well. If it were up to me, I would do it. I have nothing against either player. It is just a strategic move that I would definitely make.

Before people bag me, have a look at GCS and GWS under 24's and compare that to ours. We are light years away.

If that is baiting your footy knowledge is really poor so which one is it? Yep imagine having an under 24 side. We would be worse than GWS were at their worst because we haven't had the picks they had even if we lost Steven and Armo. Its such a dumb idea. We must keep 25 year olds even if we aren't likely to win a flag for 40 years. The side just cannot continue to trade away good players. What happens if in 2020 we realise we still cant win a flag for 5 more tears. Under your scenario you would trade away just about the whole list because they wont be around when we may challenge again. Luckily the club are working very hard to sign Steven.

On Everton topic I reckon we are a few years further away than back in 2002 because of GWS and GC plus we are still losing our stars every year eg Hayes last season and maybe Joey and Rooy in 2 years and that will be before our top picks get 3 years experience into them. Unfortunately I see 2 more years of real pain and then a slow build up. maybe make the finals again in 2018 or 19.

[Vazelos]

Stevens should never be traded, a line breaker with his pace don't fall off trees. Armitage should only be traded if you are going to get better in this area but on the whole you cant trade 25+ age group who are the heart & soul of your team. if the Saints can pull off some stunning Free Agency moves the list will accelerate. We did it before with Gehrig, Hamill etc, we can do it again

[saintspremiers]

Agree with most of what plugs has to say.

If we make the finals in 2018 would be an amazing effort. My gut feel is 2019 is our earliest finals chance.
Lots more years of pain to come. Just so glad Rooey is still at the club. His experience and leadership is worth spades.

[gringo]

I will give you picks that failed to get to the standard of Steven off the top of my head. Kruezer, Tambling, Farren Ray, Trengove, Scully, Beau Dowler, Beau Muston....I could go on and on. Why would anyone want to trade a guy who is our only genuine star not due for retirement for a pick that is speculative. We have screwed up drafting for nearly a decade and all of a sudden we get some promising kids so we get drunk on our potential success and burn the house down thinking we are getting a lottery win next week.

[stinger]

I am really hoping that our trading continues the way of the last 3 or 4 years...ie B. Goddard, Dal Santo, McEvoy & Stanley. Memo to Simon.....I'm not baiting here I'm just expressing an opinion. At the end of the season (assuming we finish last), if Steven gets a great offer I don't believe we should match it. Let him go and we get Draft pick 2. If we are offered pick 12 again for Armitage we take this as well. I know this will weaken us again in the short term but my reasoning is this. Come 2016 the rest of our list will be better able to soak up the losses of Steven and Armo to the extent that we will not be any worse than 2015. Imagine if we went into this years draft with picks 1,2,12,20 and 38 to add to our current under 24 team. That would then just about complete our rebuild but it would also delay our premiership window by another 2 years. This is very important considering the juggernauts that the emerging Suns and Giants will be. I want St Kilda to be peaking from 2020 onwards so hopefully by then the Suns and the Giants have already won 2 flags each and are on the way down.

St Kilda have been brave with their trading over the last 4 years. Will they be brave enough to do the above? I doubt it. I reckon the Steven scenario is likely but I doubt they would also allow Armo to go as well. If it were up to me, I would do it. I have nothing against either player. It is just a strategic move that I would definitely make.

Before people bag me, have a look at GCS and GWS under 24's and compare that to ours. We are light years away.

madness...absolute crazy madness.....

[Sainternist]

Yeah, we'll need to be patient for at least another couple of years. I'm hoping the team will start to show signs it can flourish by the 2017 season. I trust we're in the right hands and that Richo is the man who can help transform us. But in the meantime, we can enjoy watching the progress of our youth brigade turn into star players. The beauty of it all is that we have nothing to lose and the world to gain. Go Sainters!

[matrix]

no
it cant

[Stephen Theodore]

I am really hoping that our trading continues the way of the last 3 or 4 years...ie B. Goddard, Dal Santo, McEvoy & Stanley. Memo to Simon.....I'm not baiting here I'm just expressing an opinion. At the end of the season (assuming we finish last), if Steven gets a great offer I don't believe we should match it. Let him go and we get Draft pick 2. If we are offered pick 12 again for Armitage we take this as well. I know this will weaken us again in the short term but my reasoning is this. Come 2016 the rest of our list will be better able to soak up the losses of Steven and Armo to the extent that we will not be any worse than 2015. Imagine if we went into this years draft with picks 1,2,12,20 and 38 to add to our current under 24 team. That would then just about complete our rebuild but it would also delay our premiership window by another 2 years. This is very important considering the juggernauts that the emerging Suns and Giants will be. I want St Kilda to be peaking from 2020 onwards so hopefully by then the Suns and the Giants have already won 2 flags each and are on the way down.

St Kilda have been brave with their trading over the last 4 years. Will they be brave enough to do the above? I doubt it. I reckon the Steven scenario is likely but I doubt they would also allow Armo to go as well. If it were up to me, I would do it. I have nothing against either player. It is just a strategic move that I would definitely make.

Before people bag me, have a look at GCS and GWS under 24's and compare that to ours. We are light years away.

madness...absolute crazy madness.....

Agree, absolute waffle !!

[Bluthy]

1999 = 2012 (Chapter closes on a decent team that misses the finals. Cliff beckons)
2000 = 2013 (The floor collapses and we fall through to the basement)
2001 = 2014 (Good kids are introduced but wins are few and far between)
2002 = 2015 (A genuine block of new talent is on the park every week, losses still mount)
2003 = 2016 (Winning regularly. Progress towards the eight)
2004 = 2017 (The premiership window opens)

Interesting write up everton. I think the comparison falls apart at 2003 however. We need a lot more quality in the team from what we've got now. My gut says players like Weller, Savage, Delaney, Bruce, Saunders, Geary, Lee etc are place holders that will keep us competitive enough until they are forced out. Combine that with the class of Rooey, Dempster, Joey, Fisher, Gilbert leaving soon and we have a LONG way to go. And I don't like the idea of trading in a lot of players looking for that "bargin". I see a lot of those players who were brought in recently basically as big bodied cannon fodder while we develop the kids. We have to keep feeding in quality kids from the draft and be patient and play the long game. Let GWS, GC, Port etc fight it out and bruise each other up until they fall off the tree while we keep building up. We had an unbelievably great run at the top of the tree. We have to leverage the system that will let us get high draft picks by being near the bottom for a few years more as painful as it is. It amazing how many teams are "up" at the moment. If we time this right we could be perhaps the only serious player at the top of the tree for a few years. I think we screwed up a bit last time by bringing in too many big bodied recycled players to "top up" when we entered the premiership window and forgot about keeping the quality kids flowing in. Lets do this rebuild thoroughly will quality all through the team instead of just a "serviceable" bottom six again.

[gringo]

1999 = 2012 (Chapter closes on a decent team that misses the finals. Cliff beckons)
2000 = 2013 (The floor collapses and we fall through to the basement)
2001 = 2014 (Good kids are introduced but wins are few and far between)
2002 = 2015 (A genuine block of new talent is on the park every week, losses still mount)
2003 = 2016 (Winning regularly. Progress towards the eight)
2004 = 2017 (The premiership window opens)

Interesting write up everton. I think the comparison falls apart at 2003 however. We need a lot more quality in the team from what we've got now. My gut says players like Weller, Savage, Delaney, Bruce, Saunders, Geary, Lee etc are place holders that will keep us competitive enough until they are forced out. Combine that with the class of Rooey, Dempster, Joey, Fisher, Gilbert leaving soon and we have a LONG way to go. And I don't like the idea of trading in a lot of players looking for that "bargin". I see a lot of those players who were brought in recently basically as big bodied cannon fodder while we develop the kids. We have to keep feeding in quality kids from the draft and be patient and play the long game. Let GWS, GC, Port etc fight it out and bruise each other up until they fall off the tree while we keep building up. We had an unbelievably great run at the top of the tree. We have to leverage the system that will let us get high draft picks by being near the bottom for a few years more as painful as it is. It amazing how many teams are "up" at the moment. If we time this right we could be perhaps the only serious player at the top of the tree for a few years. I think we screwed up a bit last time by bringing in too many big bodied recycled players to "top up" when we entered the premiership window and forgot about keeping the quality kids flowing in. Lets do this rebuild thoroughly will quality all through the team instead of just a "serviceable" bottom six again.

That's a litle harsh on a lot of those guys. They are still potential high out put players especially Saunders who is a pretty recent draftee. There is no reason a few of them at least won't make it. Sav and Mav both look pretty settled in the starting line up after a slow start for Sav. We had some guys in the last over lap that weren't straight out stars like Brett Voss who when we got him was probably comparable to a Bruce and old boys like Peckett and Powell who were solid citizens but not super stars. I think the list we are getting together has elements of that era in that with a predominantly young list with a couple of old guys a few imported middle career players. We seemed to trade in toughness as much as skill then.

[Pleasing]

The turnaround 99 - 04 was fast tracked by Priority Picks and that bumper trade window in 2000 when we picked up Voss, Gehrig and Hamill and the best draft in history 2001. Really the team was built in that two year window 2000 - 2001 I don't think it is possible to do that anymore.

On the flip side ultimately that side failed because they got the balance slightly wrong. When we had Gehrig and Hamill not to mention Penny Powell Black the gun kids Roo Ball Dal etc were not mature enough and by the time they were ready in 09 - 10 all the star imports were long gone and too much was left to too few. Timing was slightly off with the benefit of hindsight.

The lessen for us is that typically you don't win flags until your core group is hitting 25+, our core group is still being recruited. So history would say 2020 onwards is when we can hope to be premiership contenders, at the moment though the jury is still out on whether we will manage to build a core group good enough to challenge. It will take longer this time than it did in 2000 - 2001 and we need to be mind full of pulling the trigger on Free Agents unless they can help us post 2020 when we will be challenging for a flag. To my mind no free agents till 2017 and couple more years of pain before we start to rise 2017 -20 then premiership window from 2021 onwards, a lot needs to go right for this to work out, and a lot of patience will be needed by the board not something we are famous for.

[Wayne42]

If that is baiting your footy knowledge is really poor so which one is it? Yep imagine having an under 24 side. We would be worse than GWS were at their worst because we haven't had the picks they had even if we lost Steven and Armo. Its such a dumb idea. We must keep 25 year olds even if we aren't likely to win a flag for 40 years. The side just cannot continue to trade away good players. What happens if in 2020 we realise we still cant win a flag for 5 more tears. Under your scenario you would trade away just about the whole list because they wont be around when we may challenge again. Luckily the club are working very hard to sign Steven.

On Everton topic I reckon we are a few years further away than back in 2002 because of GWS and GC plus we are still losing our stars every year eg Hayes last season and maybe Joey and Rooy in 2 years and that will be before our top picks get 3 years experience into them. Unfortunately I see 2 more years of real pain and then a slow build up. maybe make the finals again in 2018 or 19.

I think there will be a lot more than 5 tears between now and our next flag

[saintly]

2001 & 2012 they had better kids, then 2014 & 2015

[samuraisaint]

The players we have drafted the past two years look good and Membrey looks promsing. Steven is a jet and MUST stay. Citywest is out of his gourd if he thinks letting Jack go is a wise decision. Armitage is important- no star, but an experienced head and body in an age bracket we have holes in. Who do the kids learn from if not the wise heads around the place?
Gilbert and Arryn look like they might be gone, because of their injuries, and a raft of others will retire at seasons end. I speak of Schneider, Dempster, Fisher, and the teo previoudly mentioned.
Others, like Webster, Ross, Simpkin, Roberton, etc., need to show something this year or they will end up playing the year out at Sandy again. This also applies to our very disappointing forwards in White and Lee.
No finals action for years in my opinion, and when Roo and Joey retire at the end of 2016 we may even go backwards a couple of positions until Dunstan, Billings, Acres, Eli and Paddy mature. 2019 a possible return, but 2020 much more likely.

[Bluthy]

1999 = 2012 (Chapter closes on a decent team that misses the finals. Cliff beckons)
2000 = 2013 (The floor collapses and we fall through to the basement)
2001 = 2014 (Good kids are introduced but wins are few and far between)
2002 = 2015 (A genuine block of new talent is on the park every week, losses still mount)
2003 = 2016 (Winning regularly. Progress towards the eight)
2004 = 2017 (The premiership window opens)

Interesting write up everton. I think the comparison falls apart at 2003 however. We need a lot more quality in the team from what we've got now. My gut says players like Weller, Savage, Delaney, Bruce, Saunders, Geary, Lee etc are place holders that will keep us competitive enough until they are forced out. Combine that with the class of Rooey, Dempster, Joey, Fisher, Gilbert leaving soon and we have a LONG way to go. And I don't like the idea of trading in a lot of players looking for that "bargin". I see a lot of those players who were brought in recently basically as big bodied cannon fodder while we develop the kids. We have to keep feeding in quality kids from the draft and be patient and play the long game. Let GWS, GC, Port etc fight it out and bruise each other up until they fall off the tree while we keep building up. We had an unbelievably great run at the top of the tree. We have to leverage the system that will let us get high draft picks by being near the bottom for a few years more as painful as it is. It amazing how many teams are "up" at the moment. If we time this right we could be perhaps the only serious player at the top of the tree for a few years. I think we screwed up a bit last time by bringing in too many big bodied recycled players to "top up" when we entered the premiership window and forgot about keeping the quality kids flowing in. Lets do this rebuild thoroughly will quality all through the team instead of just a "serviceable" bottom six again.

That's a litle harsh on a lot of those guys. They are still potential high out put players especially Saunders who is a pretty recent draftee. There is no reason a few of them at least won't make it. Sav and Mav both look pretty settled in the starting line up after a slow start for Sav. We had some guys in the last over lap that weren't straight out stars like Brett Voss who when we got him was probably comparable to a Bruce and old boys like Peckett and Powell who were solid citizens but not super stars. I think the list we are getting together has elements of that era in that with a predominantly young list with a couple of old guys a few imported middle career players. We seemed to trade in toughness as much as skill then.

Look I'm just shooting my mouth off with some off the cuff prophesising calls. I hope many of them prove me wrong. In modern footy it is so important to have players all over the park that can keep possession and use the footy well. The players I mention above worry me because they haven't shown vision, composure or weaponry yet. We want all our players to be a threat with the footy. Mav did well as tagger but I don't see great foot skills. I can't picture where Saunders will play - a wing maybe with a bit of onball? Savage doesn't seem level headed or penetrative enough. Geary is a hard nut but disposal is average and I'm not sure how well he can read the play. Delaney is great stopper but looks a bit of a worry with the ball down back. Bruce is struggling to find a spot to play. Lee has a beautiful pure leap at the football and nice kick but AFL defences don't let you leap at the ball cleanly and on cramped Etihad its hard to find leading space.

But regardless of which individuals start poking their nose above the crowd, what is vital is that everyone develops because we want a real sense of competition for spots with players pushing each other and building depth. Personally I think a lot of these players from other clubs were brought in to have some big bodies and fitness while we develop younger players so we are still somewhat competitive with the thought that 2 or 3 might develop enough to cement a spot in our finals team. Also - CONSPIRACY THEROY- maybe with these players from other clubs we got a little bit of intellectual property and insights from the Hawks, Swans etc?- gameplans, tactics etc?

[PJ]

The speculation around our rise in comparison to the last crop is largely dependent on our recruiting in the FA department coupled with an external perception we are on the up. It cannot be underestimated the impact Hamill, Gehrig, Powell and that crew had on Roo, Kosi etc.

Clubs build on the excitement of the younger players having role models that set an example. I also wouldn't underestimate the job Armo and Steven have in setting the tone in the middle - trading/losing them is an absolute no.

[Bluthy]

and a lot of patience will be needed by the board not something we are famous for.

What we have in our favour is we have come off an incredibly successful period. Alright its frustrating we didn't get the ultimate glory but we were a godamn powerhouse for a long time. Stacks of finals, prelims, 3 grand finals, incredibly exciting games at the highest level of footy. that are still talked about. We gained a lot of respect. I've even noticed there is very little of the patronising "poor St Kilda - hope you guys get back up again". We smashed and grinded teams into the dust for almost a decade and oppo fans are glad we are down. Like how Geelong and Collingwood lost back to back grannies and then reloaded to eventually win, what it lets the club do is take a breath, and calmly do the rebuild properly but this time even better. We can learn from the weaknesses that stopped us getting that flag. Its like levelling up and we can go to the next level, calmly and strategically. Fans were satiated by our big period of success and there is not the pressure to have to get back up there straight away. In a weird way its almost a relief not to be so stressed out by the footy and winning and will we make finals and nail biting finals etc. I loved having Pelchen at our club because I think he has put in the foundations properly. We need to keep building that foundation, this time without the weakness of being a bit uneven with out list (absolute superstars at the top, a pretty ordinary bottom six).

Yes competiveness and winning is an important factor to create an arrogant, winning mentality in the young players for sure. The Melbourne debacle has probably spooked a lot of coaches and administrators about rebuilding by staying down the bottom but the demons went too far with designing an explictedly losing culture to get high draft picks. We are in a position with the moving on of players like Dal Santo, McEvoy, Goddard et al combined with the quality of our top end leaving over the next few years that we will naturally struggle to win no matter how much the players bust their asses. Its definitely a balancing act but we have to be patient and get this rebuild right because it will set us up for another hugely successful period that this time should take us to that flag.

[citywest]

I agree with you Bluthy 100%.

I'd like to get your take on 2 players. Jack Steven and David Armitage. With their age in mind and the fact that we will probably not reach the premiership window until 2020, would you keep them for our next tilt at a flag? Or would you allow both of them to leave as Free Agents in order to stockpile another 2 young guns. (On the proviso Steven gets us pick 2 and Armo gets us pick 15 or better).

I've been lambasted on here for thinking this way so I was just curious to hear what you think.

[plugger66]

I agree with you Bluthy 100%.

I'd like to get your take on 2 players. Jack Steven and David Armitage. With their age in mind and the fact that we will probably not reach the premiership window until 2020, would you keep them for our next tilt at a flag? Or would you allow both of them to leave as Free Agents in order to stockpile another 2 young guns. (On the proviso Steven gets us pick 2 and Armo gets us pick 15 or better).

I've been lambasted on here for thinking this way so I was just curious to hear what you think.

And you will continue to get lambasted for that thinking. What happens if we find in 2020 that we are years off winning a flag. Do we just continue to trade away good players for picks? There is a massive difference between losing BJ and Dal compared to Steven and Armo. We were still on our way down losing those players and they were much older. And when does pick 2 guarantee you a player as good as Jack anyway?

[bergholt]

The lessen for us is that typically you don't win flags until your core group is hitting 25+, our core group is still being recruited.

I basically agree with that. Here's the current list as at the start of this year:

over 30: Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Schneider (r)
28 - 29: Ray, Gilbert
26 - 27: Armitage, Geary
24 - 25: Delaney, Saad (r), Holmes (r), Steven, Simpkin, Shenton, Lee, Savage, Hickey
22 - 23: Roberton, Weller, Markworth, Bruce, Curren, Siposs, Newnes
20 - 21: Ross, Longer, Webster, Minchington, Murdoch, Wright, Membrey, Saunders, White, Pierce, Dunstan, Sinclair (r)
under 20: Billings, Templeton, Acres, Payne (r), McCartin, McKenzie, Lonie, Goddard

Only nine guys over 25, so by your measure we're miles away!

Projecting it into the future, here's where we would be in 2019. I've removed some that I think might be gone by then:

over 30: Armitage, Geary
28 - 29: Delaney, Steven, Lee, Savage, Hickey
26 - 27: Roberton, Weller, Markworth, Bruce, Newnes
24 - 25: Ross, Webster, Wright, Membrey, White, Pierce, Dunstan
22 - 23: Billings, Templeton, Acres, McCartin, McKenzie, Lonie, Goddard
20 - 21: draftees from 2015 and 2016
below 20: draftees from 2017 and 2018

Still doesn't look like that core is going to be the strongest in the league. If we're any good in 2019 it'll only be because of those 22, 23, 24, 25 year olds: Webster, Membrey, White, Dunstan, Billings, Acres, McCartin, Goddard, etc. They could easily have played 50+ games by then, they should be in a good position to show what they're capable of.

Still not sure we can win a flag with that group but who knows how they'll develop? Add a couple of quality free agents and we should be comfortably in the top 8.

[Bluthy]

I agree with you Bluthy 100%.

I'd like to get your take on 2 players. Jack Steven and David Armitage. With their age in mind and the fact that we will probably not reach the premiership window until 2020, would you keep them for our next tilt at a flag? Or would you allow both of them to leave as Free Agents in order to stockpile another 2 young guns. (On the proviso Steven gets us pick 2 and Armo gets us pick 15 or better).

I've been lambasted on here for thinking this way so I was just curious to hear what you think.

Whilst you can never say never depending on offers, we should keep both. Why? Let me rant again:

Age: I don't really get his panic about their age. Who were the best players in the last two grannies? Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis - not exactly spring chickens. You need a good spread of old heads and youthful energy and everything in between to win flags.

Role models: They fit the two groups we desperately need - mid twenties age bracket and genuine midfielders. Football clubs are like the military - they thrive on a solid hierarchy to encourage development. The rookies need look to the second years to have an attainable example to strive for - the 50 game players look to the 100 game players, the 100 game players look to the veterans etc. We want Webster, Newnes, Ross, Murdoch etc to be watching Armo and Jack out on the training track and game day and being inspired and saying "That's where I want to be - what are they doing so I can emulate them". Melbourne's youngsters had very few players of quality left to learn from and they stagnated badly.

Leadership: Armo started last season as a brilliant leader with Lenny out. He got a hard tag but he just kept cracking in relentlessly before he got injured. Things will probably get tough over the next two seasons. We need these hardened senior guys to lead the way esp having lost Goddard, Dal, McEvoy. We can't afford Melbourne style demoralisation that kills a teams development

Excitement: When Jack gets his running boots on, scooting around players and opening the game up, he is a burst of joyous energy that makes things happen out there. Its excites the players and the crowd. And we need that excitement and cutting edge while we graft hard and Billings, McCartin etc come on with their own excitement producing manoeuvres.

Bird in the had: I agree with Plugger - whilst our recruiting seems to have a better strike rate now, there are no guarantees with draftees.

My concern is really around if Jack and Armo want to leave seeing as we may not play finals for another 4 years. But if they see the talent being developed around them and the good vibe at the club, which seems to be happening, they know that when it takes off it can all happen damn quick - just see how Port narrowly missed the grannie this year.

[citywest]

Thanks for the feedback Bluthy. You make some valid points but the point you're missing is there are 2 monsters that are about to take the AFL by storm. Giants and Suns....in that order. When we hit our peak in 2020 we will still not get to within a bulls roar of those two teams. "Converting" Armo and Jack into eg. picks 2 and 12 at the end of this year will have a 2 fold effect. The first is that if our recruiters get it right, 2 more elite kids (preferably mids) on our list. The second point is that it will probably keep us in the bottom 4 for an extra 2 years meaning high draft picks for an extra 2 years.

A poster made a good point a while ago, if we just go to the draft each year without trading, our picks are (apart from pick 1), almost identical to the premier. If you finish last you get picks 1,19, 37, 55, 73. The premier gets 18, 36, 54, 72. With this point in mind plus the fact that we have 2 monsters about to explode, this is my reasoning why I believe Armo and Jack should be converted to high draft picks at the end of this year. Same scenario as Stanley. I admit I was horrified when we traded him for pick 21, but I was rapt when pick 21 became H Goddard. Also, I would like to add, with another year under our belt our team will be better able to absorb the loss of Armo and Jack. It is my opinion that in 2016 even without Armo and Jack St Kilda will not be any worse than 2015. But the big plus is that we will have an extra 2 young guns on our list.

[plugger66]

Thanks for the feedback Bluthy. You make some valid points but the point you're missing is there are 2 monsters that are about to take the AFL by storm. Giants and Suns....in that order. When we hit our peak in 2020 we will still not get to within a bulls roar of those two teams. "Converting" Armo and Jack into eg. picks 2 and 12 at the end of this year will have a 2 fold effect. The first is that if our recruiters get it right, 2 more elite kids (preferably mids) on our list. The second point is that it will probably keep us in the bottom 4 for an extra 2 years meaning high draft picks for an extra 2 years.

A poster made a good point a while ago, if we just go to the draft each year without trading, our picks are (apart from pick 1), almost identical to the premier. If you finish last you get picks 1,19, 37, 55, 73. The premier gets 18, 36, 54, 72. With this point in mind plus the fact that we have 2 monsters about to explode, this is my reasoning why I believe Armo and Jack should be converted to high draft picks at the end of this year. Same scenario as Stanley. I admit I was horrified when we traded him for pick 21, but I was rapt when pick 21 became H Goddard. Also, I would like to add, with another year under our belt our team will be better able to absorb the loss of Armo and Jack. It is my opinion that in 2016 even without Armo and Jack St Kilda will not be any worse than 2015. But the big plus is that we will have an extra 2 young guns on our list.

You still don't get it. Jack is proven, pick 2 is not. Jack is very close to elite. Not many pick 2 become elite. You also cant keep trading away good players. As I have said before what happens in 2020 if we aren't near a flag, do we keep trading all our good players.? Of course not. Really your thinking on footy is either very poor or you just want to cause trouble. I cant see any other reason for your thinking.