2016 Will Be Worse Than 2015

[spert]

Not all doom and gloom. Obviously the younger players will keep maturing and their bodies will be stronger and able to see out games better, I expect Richo will keep improving his coaching skills, and hopefully we pick up a couple of good recruits. It appears we are a more focussed and pro-active off the field from a business aspect too..at least two or three more wins next season will mean we are progressing. If we make the finals, then we are progressing ahead of schedule- anything is possible in this game.

[Dis Believer]

Whilst some of our opponents will improve (some unexpectedly), some will decline (again, some unexpectedly). We will improve. Whilst our list profile is not ideal, we have many more young players than we do older players. Our older players may be expected to decline but the older players are outnumbered by the young guys by about 5 to 1.

If Roo declines by 15% next year, we only need 60% of Billings, McCartin, Membrey, Lonie and Sinclair to continue to develop and the total output for the team will still improve dramatically.

We could say the same for Dempster - Roberton, Goddard, Wright, Webster, Lee

We could say the same for Joey - Dunstan, Acres, McKenzie, Ross, Draft pick number 5

We could say the same for Fisher - Savage, Delaney, Markworth, Templeton, Pierce

Not all of those players will continue to develop, some will, some will taper off, some will go backwards, but the point is that the sheer volume of those who are on an upward trajectory, should easily offset the loss in output from the small number that we have in decline. Be honest, none of our vets is still at their peak output, with probably Dempster and Roo still closest. Roo is the only one that is irreplaceable, but in reality getting a forward line functioning with more than just one star player improves us in that regard. What we really need to to do is tip in more quality mids with pace.

[bigcarl]

I think it's time to move Rooey out of the forward line next season to accelerate development of the young forwards, Bruce, Membrey and McCartin.

There's always the option of throwing Goddard forward as he may be too good a player to be pigeon-holed as a backman.

Riewoldt has shown that he can still play great football in other roles, so we don't lose a lot.


We also need more class in the midfield. I'd be getting Sinclair in there as often as possible and Billings and hopefully Acres or someone else will put his hand up.

The ruck situation is interesting and time will tell whether the new interchange cap allows us to play two of them. Particularly if we also want to play McCartin

I can see bergholt's point and have feared the same myself at times. But confidence in a young group is key and a lot will depend on how we start the season.

[plugger66]

I think it's time to move Rooey out of the forward line next season to accelerate development of the young forwards, Bruce, Membrey and McCartin.

There's always the option of throwing Goddard forward as he may be too good a player to be pigeon-holed as a backman.

Riewoldt has shown that he can still play great football in other roles, so we don't lose a lot.


We also need more class in the midfield. I'd be getting Sinclair in there as often as possible and Billings and hopefully Acres or someone else will put his hand up.

The ruck situation is interesting and time will tell whether the new interchange cap allows us to play two of them. Particularly if we also want to play McCartin

I can see bergholt's point and have feared the same myself at times. But confidence in a young group is key and a lot will depend on how we start the season.

Rooy has shown he is a great forward. He must play the same role as this year. Roo has never shown he can play great footy elsewhere because he hasn't really played elsewhere. You don't move your top 3 player so others can play in that position. They need to just work hard enough to grab a chance. I think the interchange cap will make it harder for tall players who only have one position. The clubs will want players who are even fitter than ever so they can get around the ground and have less time on the bench.

[Austinnn]

No offence to the OP but this is a ridiculous post and completely insulting to our players and coaches.
Of course they are going to improve.
Too much pride at the Saints for that not to happen.

Of course we will. So will every other team. Let me try again:

- Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne all have classier and more experienced lists than us. They're below us for various reasons (WADA, injuries, poor coaching) most of which are likely to be fixed next year.

- We had very, very few injuries this year. Next year we'll have more because that's the way it works.

- The top 10 of our B&F this year will contain at least three 30 year olds: Riewoldt, Dempster, Montagna. These guys are going to get worse at some point.


Feel free to argue the facts but just saying "of course they are going to improve" isn't very compelling.

What facts have you argued?
Whether or not Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne have classier lists than us is a matter of opnion.
I'd conceed that Gold Coast does due the sheer number of first round picks they were given.
Melbourne...No! They have some talented youngsters but so do we...We seem to match up on them pretty well too.
Essendon...pfft! Carlisle, Hurley and Heppell are class but the rest of their list are either on the wrong side of 30 (or nearly 40) or is massively overrated. Losing Ryder was a huge blow to them. They are heading for an epic rebuild.

Very few injuries?
Billings, Ray, Ross, Saunders, Roo and Gilbert have all missed games...some of them have missed many games. All of them are in the starting 22 if we are trying to win games.

Given the gap we have in our list of mid-20's players it is not unexpected that Roo, Dempster and Montagna will be in the B&F. We have transition plans in place for all of them...Joey will be the easiest to cover as players can rotate through the middle much more easily.
Yes the 30 year olds will get worse at some point. That point is probably not next season. Rather than look for a one-to-one replacement for Roo we are developing three effective key forwards. Bruce, Membrey and McCartin will provide three targets going inside 50...It's one of the reasons the Doggies have improved so much. Stringer, Dickson and now Redpath provide options and unpredictability. That's what it looks like we are developing.

As previously stated, I am more bullish about 2016 than I was about 2015...

That is what I'd call a compelling argument.

[bergholt]

Feel free to argue the facts but just saying "of course they are going to improve" isn't very compelling.

What facts have you argued?
Whether or not Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne have classier lists than us is a matter of opnion.
I'd conceed that Gold Coast does due the sheer number of first round picks they were given.
Melbourne...No! They have some talented youngsters but so do we...We seem to match up on them pretty well too.
Essendon...pfft! Carlisle, Hurley and Heppell are class but the rest of their list are either on the wrong side of 30 (or nearly 40) or is massively overrated. Losing Ryder was a huge blow to them. They are heading for an epic rebuild.

Under 23s:

Melbourne: Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Gawn, Toumpas, Frost
St Kilda: Billings, Newnes, Dunstan, Goddard, McCartin, Webster, Lonie, Longer, Acres

There's so much more quality in that first list. It doesn't matter that we "match up on them pretty well" because even if we beat them twice they'll still win more games than us across a season.

No idea about Essendon, but I would say that poor coaching and mental factors have suppressed them this year. They still won almost as many games as us. Take away those two factors next year and they'll be better (though obviously suspensions might happen).

Very few injuries?
Billings, Ray, Ross, Saunders, Roo and Gilbert have all missed games...some of them have missed many games. All of them are in the starting 22 if we are trying to win games.

Saunders isn't close to starting 22. Ray and Ross are on the fringes. The other three yes - but Riewoldt has only missed 5 games. At his age that's about par.

Are you really saying we haven't had a good run with injuries this year? Our injury list has been shorter than every other club for the entire year.

Given the gap we have in our list of mid-20's players it is not unexpected that Roo, Dempster and Montagna will be in the B&F. We have transition plans in place for all of them...Joey will be the easiest to cover as players can rotate through the middle much more easily.

He's averaging 29 touches a game. That takes some replacing.

What's the "transition plan" for Dempster? Goddard? No, he's the plan for Fisher. Lee? He hasn't played in defence once at AFL level so surely not. Delaney? Definitely not the same player. Roberton? But he's playing in the seniors with Dempster at the moment so that's not much of a "transition". Who is it?

Yes the 30 year olds will get worse at some point. That point is probably not next season. Rather than look for a one-to-one replacement for Roo we are developing three effective key forwards. Bruce, Membrey and McCartin will provide three targets going inside 50...It's one of the reasons the Doggies have improved so much. Stringer, Dickson and now Redpath provide options and unpredictability. That's what it looks like we are developing.

Agree, and that's great. But Riewoldt is a once in a generation player and still the most important player in our side. If he slows down at all next year - at the age of 33 - we're going to be worse.

[Dis Believer]

Feel free to argue the facts but just saying "of course they are going to improve" isn't very compelling.

What facts have you argued?
Whether or not Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne have classier lists than us is a matter of opnion.
I'd conceed that Gold Coast does due the sheer number of first round picks they were given.
Melbourne...No! They have some talented youngsters but so do we...We seem to match up on them pretty well too.
Essendon...pfft! Carlisle, Hurley and Heppell are class but the rest of their list are either on the wrong side of 30 (or nearly 40) or is massively overrated. Losing Ryder was a huge blow to them. They are heading for an epic rebuild.

Under 23s:

Melbourne: Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Gawn, Toumpas, Frost
St Kilda: Billings, Newnes, Dunstan, Goddard, McCartin, Webster, Lonie, Longer, Acres

There's so much more quality in that first list. It doesn't matter that we "match up on them pretty well" because even if we beat them twice they'll still win more games than us across a season.

No idea about Essendon, but I would say that poor coaching and mental factors have suppressed them this year. They still won almost as many games as us. Take away those two factors next year and they'll be better (though obviously suspensions might happen).

Very few injuries?
Billings, Ray, Ross, Saunders, Roo and Gilbert have all missed games...some of them have missed many games. All of them are in the starting 22 if we are trying to win games.

Saunders isn't close to starting 22. Ray and Ross are on the fringes. The other three yes - but Riewoldt has only missed 5 games. At his age that's about par.

Are you really saying we haven't had a good run with injuries this year? Our injury list has been shorter than every other club for the entire year.

Given the gap we have in our list of mid-20's players it is not unexpected that Roo, Dempster and Montagna will be in the B&F. We have transition plans in place for all of them...Joey will be the easiest to cover as players can rotate through the middle much more easily.

He's averaging 29 touches a game. That takes some replacing.

What's the "transition plan" for Dempster? Goddard? No, he's the plan for Fisher. Lee? He hasn't played in defence once at AFL level so surely not. Delaney? Definitely not the same player. Roberton? But he's playing in the seniors with Dempster at the moment so that's not much of a "transition". Who is it?

Yes the 30 year olds will get worse at some point. That point is probably not next season. Rather than look for a one-to-one replacement for Roo we are developing three effective key forwards. Bruce, Membrey and McCartin will provide three targets going inside 50...It's one of the reasons the Doggies have improved so much. Stringer, Dickson and now Redpath provide options and unpredictability. That's what it looks like we are developing.

Agree, and that's great. But Riewoldt is a once in a generation player and still the most important player in our side. If he slows down at all next year - at the age of 33 - we're going to be worse.

That 's a good analysis. but the only flaw is that you're looking at "like for like", in a position, in isolation. Example - if Dempster finshes up at the end of next year, who replaces him. You've stated Goddard is a replacement for Fisher - Goddard is a key position backman whilst Dempster is a HBF, so I agree that they are not like for like . However surely our defence (whilst weaker for Dempster's loss), is strengthened by the development of a genuine CHB, decreasing our dependence on the output of an aging HBF? Surely developing our midfield stocks (and adding to them) decreases the dependence on our backline (ie we stop the ball getting in their as often or as fast)?

When talking about a team, you need to assess the sum of the parts, not the individual parts in isolation, as they never operate in isolation.

[stjay]

Check out "On the couch" from Monday night - they lay out the equation perfectly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-e0lg5j6LY 13.43mins

It is the average scores against vs. scores for.
They show where every team is sitting and that the "premiership quadrant" is less than 80 points against vs. 100 points for.
14 of the 15 premiers came from this quadrant.
Saints currently approx 93 points against and 80 for. In the bottom quadrant but obviously going by the ladder, not the worst side.

Problem is with Riewoldt in the side we are at least a two goal better team hence we far more likely to win when he is in the side.
He will still be good next year albeit he is likely to play less and contribute less score wise.
So in order to just hold our position we need to find more goals from everyone else to replaces Rooey's drop off- and I think we will just through natural development of our younger players but I think it would unrealistic to expect more.
As for defense - the transition from old to young players probably means the same output next year.

A long way of saying I think we will be in the same position next year but you need to look at the scores for and against and where improvement will come from to characterise the debate properly, not focus on what other teams are doing.
Truth be told if Brucey didn't have such a good season we would have been smashed. Let's hope he can do the same next year.

[desertsaint]

hopefully we'll play Carlton twice, so there's two extra wins already!

[borderbarry]

If we can trade and recruit wisely this year it will make a huge difference. Imagine if we picked up Harley Bennell what a difference he would make to our mid field.

[borderbarry]

And also if we get a fairer fixture. If they go ahead & have the 3 groups of six teams, and your team plays the other five teams in its group twice as suggested. We would be winning a lot more than six matches next year. Bring it on!!

[Trev from the Bush]

OK. We are going to be worse then.

Rip up my membership now and sign on with the Bombers instead!

[plugger66]

And also if we get a fairer fixture. If they go ahead & have the 3 groups of six teams, and your team plays the other five teams in its group twice as suggested. We would be winning a lot more than six matches next year. Bring it on!!

That has never been suggested and should never happen with that extreme. Our fixture was ok this year. Imagine the tanking if we had that sort of fixture.

[stjay]

Given the recent poor return for the number of inside 50's and a couple other random events, I am starting to suspect we could have a new forwards coach by year end. Probably wrong but have a sneaking suspicion.

[Austinnn]

Under 23s:

Melbourne: Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Gawn, Toumpas, Frost
St Kilda: Billings, Newnes, Dunstan, Goddard, McCartin, Webster, Lonie, Longer, Acres

There's so much more quality in that first list. It doesn't matter that we "match up on them pretty well" because even if we beat them twice they'll still win more games than us across a season.

No idea about Essendon, but I would say that poor coaching and mental factors have suppressed them this year. They still won almost as many games as us. Take away those two factors next year and they'll be better (though obviously suspensions might happen).


Saunders isn't close to starting 22. Ray and Ross are on the fringes. The other three yes - but Riewoldt has only missed 5 games. At his age that's about par.

Are you really saying we haven't had a good run with injuries this year? Our injury list has been shorter than every other club for the entire year.

You didn't include MacKenzie or Sinclair on our list, is there a reason? I don't know the ages of Weller, Holmes, Pierce, Minchington, Roberton, Templeton, Shenton, but anyway, why are you only talking about the youngest part of our lists, is it because you see them as having the most scope for improving?

As far as the Dees go, they've still got Paul Roos coaching them or a first year rookie coach, I don't know which is worse.

The Dons will probably be a whole different unit next year with a new coach and many new players, possibly a new captain and a new style to implement. Scandal or not, I think they won't improve on this year immediately.

[bergholt]

Melbourne: Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Gawn, Toumpas, Frost
St Kilda: Billings, Newnes, Dunstan, Goddard, McCartin, Webster, Lonie, Longer, Acres

You didn't include MacKenzie or Sinclair on our list, is there a reason?

Toss up really. They're both promising, just like Acres and Lonie, but haven't shown anywhere near enough yet to be compare to some of the guys on the Melbourne list.

I don't know the ages of Weller, Holmes, Pierce, Minchington, Roberton, Templeton, Shenton, but anyway, why are you only talking about the youngest part of our lists, is it because you see them as having the most scope for improving?

It's mainly because those other guys you mention are pretty ordinary. I like Robbo and Weller but they don't compare to Brayshaw or Petracca or even Toumpas in terms of potential. The others are even less obviously comparable.

[wolfpup]

Reasons we'll finish closer to the bottom next year:

- Gold Coast won't be so bad (assuming they keep some good players)
- Essendon won't be so bad (once suspensions are complete, admittedly a risk for them)
- Melbourne should be a bit better again (especially with Petracca)
- Hard to see which teams will be worse: Port and Collingwood should be better, maybe Geelong will be a bit worse?
- Rooey will be another year older (he's almost 33 now)
- We'll have more injuries (very good run this year)

Yes, our kids will be better but so will everyone else's. Probably Carlton and Brisbane the only ones I'd feel confident finishing above at this point.

Based on all that, I have a feeling we need to harden up and prepare for a tougher year in 2016. Hopefully there's a strong draft class to make up for it.

2017, on the other hand, we should start to rise properly. Just don't hold your breath for next year.

i am late to this but my expectation would be a at least 50% increase in wins next year compared to this year. the same increase in wins we had from last year so:
2014 4 wins
2015 6 wins
2016 9 wins
2017 finals, 10 years of finals actually

but hey thats me

[gringo]

I heard all this last year when we were not winning a single game because Melbourne were near certainties for finals, Brisbane were coming good and the franchises were playing off in the next 20 GFs.

[Con Gorozidis]

Agree that every single thing in the OP is perfectly logical and makes sense.
But what we know about footy is it often doesnt make sense from year year.
Some side will have an unexpected shocker like Port did this year.
Some people even had Carlton in the 8

[magnifisaint]

F*** it I reckon we'll be better next year. Who the hell had West Coast 2nd this year. I reckon none ,so on that basis that makes this thread redundant.
"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher

Can be applied to anything in life.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Melbourne: Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Gawn, Toumpas, Frost
St Kilda: Billings, Newnes, Dunstan, Goddard, McCartin, Webster, Lonie, Longer, Acres

You didn't include MacKenzie or Sinclair on our list, is there a reason?

Toss up really. They're both promising, just like Acres and Lonie, but haven't shown anywhere near enough yet to be compare to some of the guys on the Melbourne list.

I don't know the ages of Weller, Holmes, Pierce, Minchington, Roberton, Templeton, Shenton, but anyway, why are you only talking about the youngest part of our lists, is it because you see them as having the most scope for improving?

It's mainly because those other guys you mention are pretty ordinary. I like Robbo and Weller but they don't compare to Brayshaw or Petracca or even Toumpas in terms of potential. The others are even less obviously comparable.

what a strange comment ... you start off saying Sinclair McKenzie Acres and Lonie haven't shown enough to compare to Melbourne's list but then say that Brayshaw Petracca and Toumpas have our guys covered in regards to potential ?!?!?

[matrix]

sooooo
in 2014 we were crap
in 2015 we were a bit better and developed some youth
in 2016 we are going to go back to 2014 standards


ive got this right?


im sure the coaching staff, the members and the club would look at that as a positive

[thejiggingsaint]

Such an interesting thread! SOME (on this forum even!) had us winning ZERO games this year. I always find it interesting to read all the speculation and forecasts for our side (and how often they are proven wrong! ) There are some who are more than happy to find negatives, who are "happy being miserable" good luck to them. Me? well I expect NOTHING, but always BELIEVE that we can win! That philosophy works for me. FWIW, I think we WILL improve in 2016! and to hell with pessimism! Jeez its good to be back!

[spert]

Given the recent poor return for the number of inside 50's and a couple other random events, I am starting to suspect we could have a new forwards coach by year end. Probably wrong but have a sneaking suspicion.

I reckon the midfield coach could follow the forward coach- pretty ordinary clearance work this season.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Such an interesting thread! SOME (on this forum even!) had us winning ZERO games this year. I always find it interesting to read all the speculation and forecasts for our side (and how often they are proven wrong! ) There are some who are more than happy to find negatives, who are "happy being miserable" good luck to them. Me? well I expect NOTHING, but always BELIEVE that we can win! That philosophy works for me. FWIW, I think we WILL improve in 2016! and to hell with pessimism! Jeez its good to be back!

ill own up to it I only had us realistically beating Melbourne when I first looked at the fixture.. I never expected Gold coast to be as bad as they have been nor did I expect Essendon to fall so far .. the fact we won a game at the Gabba was a big surprise for me but the win over the dogs for me was the game where we really out played to my expectation easily our best win of the year...

next year I would think Brisbane will be worse... I reckon we would be favorites against Carlton and possibly Essendon and we should hopefully keep up our run of dominance over the Dee's ... you would have to think GC will improve with Gaz back for a full year.... a lot depends on our draw if we get Melb Carlton Bris twice and GC in Melbourne then I can see our win loss ratio improving