Brian Speaking

[saintsRrising]

Yes. After all it is just a bit of fun. If not life and death.

ITK'S obviously have some contacts. Doesn't mean what they say will always happen.

If even just the first part of last night about the Carlisle offer being accepted comes true. I will be happy.
Carlisle
Freeman
Rice.

Great outcome. Anything else is a bonus

Well the first part was posted on BF by Stavro well before BS tweeted (or should I say "retweeted") it.

[CQ SAINT]

You can't use points to equate worth in a trade. They are only for academy and FS.
Essendon get pick 5.With pick 4 they are in a very good position.

Points system irrelevant

If the swap of 8 from GWS for 23 and 24 happens it would only be for points to secure Hopper. The only relevant reason for this kind of swap I would imagine. Hopper is a GWS academy player. Makes the points very relevant.

[Junction Oval]

This has been the most interesting Sunday morning reading for a long time

Not for the first time in a few years, I will back the professionalism of our team to get the right/best outcome for our Club. Clearly, there is lots happening behind the scenes in this murky world of trading. Isn't it great

[borderbarry]

I hope Brian Speaking is fair dinkum and not living up to his initials.

[loris]

BS critically referring to back door "conversations " probably had by the heavy hitters at AFL with the big Boys of Essendon regarding obstructionism and how it would be of assistance for them to Co operate.

.

Bit of punctuation for me please in this sentence B_M. I can't quite decipher your meaning

Sorry teacher

See Verdun's post.

Remember how the AFL under Demetriou made life he'll for the Saints. That was because of bad blood between Thomas and Demetriou.
Essendon have probably realised that Saints are in favour with the AFL under Saints supporter Gill and they already have bridges to build with them after drugs saga.




All speculation of course but the clue was in the BS tweet about AFL plants

Thanks B_M, and thanks Verdun.......... I'm all caught up with you now

[ace]

You can't use points to equate worth in a trade. They are only for academy and FS.
Essendon get pick 5.With pick 4 they are in a very good position.

Points system irrelevant

If the swap of 8 from GWS for 23 and 24 happens it would only be for points to secure Hopper. The only relevant reason for this kind of swap I would imagine. Hopper is a GWS academy player. Makes the points very relevant.

You can't use points to equate worth in a trade. They are only for academy and FS.
They may not be an accurate reflection of this draft and its quality profile.
But until someone produces a quality profile and the points for each pick it is the best guess yet.
How much is a trade player worth, you need to send him into the draft and name the draftees you would pick ahead of him.
If you want to trade draft picks you need to put a draftees name against each pick and decide which choice you would prefer.

As it stands GWS has
pick 8 = 1,551 point
pick 27 = 703 points
pick 48 = 302 points
pick 66 = 80 points
pick 70 = 39 points
A total of only 2,675 points

Both Hopper and Kennedy would be expected to both go top 10 if they were NOT academy players.
That means GWS can only match 3,343 points after a 20% discount.
If Hopper is called at 5 and Kennedy at 9 for instance, GWS would spend 1,503 points on Hopper and need 1,176 points for Kennedy.
They would fall 4 points short on Kennedy and not be able to get him.
GWS needs more points to be certain of getting both players.
What if Hopper is called by Essendon at 4, Kennedy would be left swinging.

So GWS wants to increase their points by trading pick 8 for multiple later picks but which have a greater total points value OR make a trade that gives more 2015 points because it includes picks from 2016.

St Kilda has 3,122 points to play with.
Carlton reward for tanking was 4,482 points a bonus of around pick 10 over St Kilda.

[ace]

The Father son bidding throws up quite a bit of confusion in the draft order.
Lets say Gold Coast called Mills at pick 3 = 2,234 points.
Sydney need to stump up 1,788 points
Sydney stumps up pick 14 = 1,161 points they are 627 points short.
Sydney stumps up pick 33 = 563 points but they are still 64 points short
Sydney stumps up pick 54 = 220 points.
They get Mills and a fresh pick that would slot in between pick 59 and 60 with their surplus 156 points.

But did you notice Sydney's use of pick 33 moves every pick after 33 up by 1
and their use of pick 54 moves every pick thereafter up by another 1
The insertion of a pick after 59 moves pick 60 and the remainder down by 1 but remember these had already been raised by 2.
Under this scenario our picks would effectively be 5, 24, 44, 62 instead of 5, 24, 45, 63.

This sort of event happens every time a club is forced to use multiple picks to claim their father or academy players.

Now consider Brisbane calls Mills at pick 2 = 2,517 points
Sydney needs to stump up 2,014 points but Sydney only received 1,963 points total for finishing in 5th place, Hawthorn only 1,620 points to play with.

[kosifantutti]

@Brian_Speaking: Just had it reconfirmed that JC will 100% go the PSD if Dons don't deal.

Just relaying what's on Twitter. No claims to the veracity of this info.

[ripplug66]

@Brian_Speaking: Just had it reconfirmed that JC will 100% go the PSD if Dons don't deal.

Just relaying what's on Twitter. No claims to the veracity of this info.

Well the only other choice was the Hawks. I still say that nearly everything that is said is common sense or plain luck with maybe the slightest bit of inside knowledge. Both clubs will deal. And pick 5 will be part of the deal even though the supposed insiders have said no and yes to that many times.

[Wrote for Luck]

Bet Essendon are chuffed to bits doing all these deals before all their players get banned for two years.
Anything short of JC and two second rounders coming back for 5 is a significant risk I would hesitate to consider imo.

[saynta]

He is an ITK. Gets the inside word and is usually pretty close.

Told BF two weeks before that Carlisle would select the Saints. First with the Rice nomination

Look what was tweeted tonight is all unlikely to come off however I have heard from another ITK today that Essendon were sweating and Dodoro was for time he first time willing to trade so the first bit is probably correct.
All the flipping of dp's and Weller and or O'meara. Well wait and see

ITK?

I Tickle Kittens.

And the bigger ones?

[Con Gorozidis]

I am fairly sure BS was pushing the Cameron rumour last year very hard. And only last week he was pushing the Kelly one hard.
He definitely seems to know some things but it seems second or third hand.

[magnifisaint]

@Brian_Speaking: Just had it reconfirmed that JC will 100% go the PSD if Dons don't deal.

Just relaying what's on Twitter. No claims to the veracity of this info.

Well the only other choice was the Hawks. I still say that nearly everything that is said is common sense or plain luck with maybe the slightest bit of inside knowledge. Both clubs will deal. And pick 5 will be part of the deal even though the supposed insiders have said no and yes to that many times.

what happens if Carlton matches St.Kilda's deal?

We lose him

[magnifisaint]

I am fairly sure BS was pushing the Cameron rumour last year very hard. And only last week he was pushing the Kelly one hard.
He definitely seems to know some things but it seems second or third hand.

Better than no hand. Things change on a dime so I think he posts a little early. Probably better to wait until 10 mins before the trade goes ahead and then more will listen.

[lefty]

Ok so 5 and 63 for Carlisle, 23 and 25. Feasible but ridiculously the hardest to believe.
23 and 24 to GWS for 8. Also feasible and I learnt tonight they need the academy points. They must fear that Hopper will go at pick 3 and they are trying to keep 27 or that Carlton will take a crack at him. 23 and 24 is only 49 more points than 8???
25 for Freeman - no worries
45 is all we'd have for Rice so he better not go under 41/42.

So either Weller is a genuine chance at 8 or 8 and 1st round 16 for JOM. Is he worth more than Dangerfield? Who cares really. If we could Im sure we would.

The clue is in the words genuine and chance. If Weller is a genuine chance what does that make JOM.

Comparatively, if the Crows took the Dangerfield deal, 9, 28 amd an almost player why wouldn't GCS take 8 and 1st round 2016 for JOM.

Not holding my breath but I'm a little excited.

That would be amazing. Make it happen saints.

[The Recruit]

Jaxsons vs Brian Speaking.....Jaxsons declares rubbish in Brian Speaking. I have to go with Jaxsons....but would love him to give us SOMETHING??????

[bergholt]

what happens if Carlton matches St.Kilda's deal?

We lose him

If Carlton signs a guy who doesn't want to play for them and who hasn't done a medical then good luck to them. These days not many clubs sign players who don't want them.

[Wayne42]

Completely different deal mentioned on AFL.com today. We give Port pick 5 and they give us Pick 10 and their 2016 first rounder.
We trade pick 10 to dildo for Carlisle. Port give pick 5 to the Suns for Dixon.

[the dome]

Completely different deal mentioned on AFL.com today. We give Port pick 5 and they give us Pick 10 and their 2016 first rounder.
We trade pick 10 to dildo for Carlisle. Port give pick 5 to the Suns for Dixon.

Well if we...
Lose #5 but get J C & Port's 1st Rounder of 2016 we could be looking @ a first rounder not later than #14 (i'm assuming Port miss out on the dbl. chance). It could even be a pick inside the top 10 etc etc. The sort of outcome for 2016 that would spark a good deal of Saints interest in Port during 2016.

[prwilkinson]

Fascinating, should be an interesting few days.

[ROLS-LEE]

Completely different deal mentioned on AFL.com today. We give Port pick 5 and they give us Pick 10 and their 2016 first rounder.
We trade pick 10 to dildo for Carlisle. Port give pick 5 to the Suns for Dixon.

Well if we...
Lose #5 but get J C & Port's 1st Rounder of 2016 we could be looking @ a first rounder not later than #14 (i'm assuming Port miss out on the dbl. chance). It could even be a pick inside the top 10 etc etc. The sort of outcome for 2016 that would spark a good deal of Saints interest in Port during 2016.

Why do that. Keep 5 and get Carlisle in PSD. Better than above.

[samoht]

Why do that. Keep 5 and get Carlisle in PSD.

Exactly.
That'll be the best outcome for us. Did Essendon offer us anything for Goddard - their best and fairest winner?
Revenge is a dish best served cold - as the saying goes.

[magnifisaint]

and suddenly this guy has gone quiet. BS by name BS by nature

[Verdun66]

and suddenly this guy has gone quiet. BS by name BS by nature

No....he made a few comments around midnight to the effect that our trading was just beginning. He hasn't been too off the mark to be fair.

[Con Gorozidis]

and suddenly this guy has gone quiet. BS by name BS by nature

No....he made a few comments around midnight to the effect that our trading was just beginning. He hasn't been too off the mark to be fair.

Well he has. He was going on about Kelly when we were never getting Kelly. He basically made that up.