Con Gorozidis wrote:Carlton had an incredible 10 guys with < 50 games experience last night and 15 < 100.
We had 5 < 50 and 13 < 100. Still a high number.
Carlton are a myth.
Check out this midfield:
Murphy (29yo)
Gibbs (28yo)
Cripps (22yo)
Kreuzer (28yo)
Add in Curnow (28yo) as a stopper.
They average 73 Points per game. That's last in the comp.
They are last for Inside 50s also.
So they can't score. They can't even get it inside 50. With a midfield that is equal to any in the comp, they can't get it forward.
And that's because they don't try to. They always play 1, sometimes 2 extra men in defence. They're playing a game that is never going to work.
They are 12th for Opposition Inside 50s.
They're 9th for Points Against.
So even with 2 spare men back, and one of the best midfields in the comp - they're still conceding nearly 90 points per game. And, they're no conceding huge amounts of Inside 50s. The midfield are the ones doing the work. They're last for Inside 50s, and they're 12th for conceding oppositon Inside 50s - so guess where the game is being played?
Yep, by these guys:
Murphy (29yo)
Gibbs (28yo)
Cripps (22yo)
Kreuzer (28yo)
Curnow (28yo) as a stopper.
So basically, all this 'oh man Carlton are so young' may be true in theory - but in reality it's not the young guys doing the lifting. It's the seasoned champions (plus Cripps of course) that are doing the work.
They have 4 players in the Top 50 in the comp for Contested Possessions. Guess who they are?
Yep, these guys:
Murphy (29yo)
Gibbs (28yo)
Cripps (22yo)
Curnow (28yo)
They have 4 guys in the Top 50 in the comp for Uncontested Possessions:
Murphy
Gibbs
Simpson
Docherty
So basically, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, Cripps, Kruezer and Simpson are doing all the work. With Docherty getting the pill a lot (5th in the comp for Rebound 50s & 12th for Uncontested Possessions) from these guys.
Outside of that, they're rubbish.
But my point is, that most young teams do this. They try to strangle the game and 'learn to defend'. Most manage to do it and grind out low scoring 'honourable losses' and the odd win that has the footy media and fans rubbing themselves with excitement - but it's when they start to introduce attack that it often falls away.
I mean seriously, two loose men in defence??
Carlton are rubbish, and are at that stage where opposition teams don't try to stop them. They back themselves and their own strategy to win. Exactly like us last year and pre-GWS.
However once you're on their radar, they will dissect what you're doing and find chinks in your armour. They'd dismantle what you're doing.
What Carlton are doing is easy to dismantle.
Tag Simpson and Docherty down back, and DON'T BOMB IT IN TO THE HOT SPOT!!
If they have 8 defenders - play 7 forwards and 1 extra midfielder. AND DON'T BOMB IT TO THE HOTSPOT!!
If they have 7 defenders, play 7 forwards - AND DON"T BOMB IT TO THE HOTSPOT!!
To summarise, they have a very, very good midfield of older, mature champion players that are fit and in form. That alone is enough to be competitive. Throw in a ridiculously defensive game plan and of course they're going to be competitive. Then when you add in stupid tactics like Gold Coast BOMBING IT IN to Lynch, and that's where they pinch wins.
Why? Because Eade backed their own outdated style of play to 'bomb it in to Lynch and Wright' against a team that is trying to get you to do exactly that! They're waiting for it, and setting up for it. Yet Gold Coast kept doing it all night.
Against Hawthorn, Gold Coast had 17 Marks Inside 50 and went at 57% Inside 50s Scores. Wright and Lynch took 20 marks between them and 6 shots at goal. It worked eventually. Mainly due to the fact that Hawthorn are utter rubbish down back these days.
But they tried the same thing against Carlton and had 6 Marks Inside 50 and had a 40% Inside 50s Scores! It didn't work. It was clear it wasn't working, yet they kept doing it. They played directly into Carlton's hands.
So kudos to Carlton. But my point is that when other teams finally acknowledge that they need to stop Carlton too, things will change. And when Bolton tries to pull the trigger and get his team to actually score themselves - we'll see how well they can adapt.
Oh, and when Kreuzer goes down like he always does, we'll see how well they hold up in the midfield too.